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2012 United States presidential election in Connecticut

(Redirected from 2012 Connecticut Democratic presidential primary)

Main article: 2012 United States presidential election

The 2012 United States presidential election in Connecticut took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Connecticut voters chose seven electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan. Obama and Biden carried Connecticut with 58.1% of the popular vote to Romney's and Ryan's 40.7%, thus winning the state's seven electoral votes.[1] Romney managed to flip the traditionally Republican Litchfield County, which Obama had won in 2008.[2] As of the 2020 United States presidential election, this was the last election that the Democratic presidential nominee won Windham County.

2012 United States presidential election in Connecticut
← 2008 November 6, 2012 2016 →
 
Nominee Barack Obama Mitt Romney
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Illinois Massachusetts
Running mate Joe Biden Paul Ryan
Electoral vote 7 0
Popular vote 905,109 634,899
Percentage 58.06% 40.72%
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

To date, this is the last time that the last time that the towns of Berlin, Bozrah, Brooklyn, Chaplin, East Haven, Franklin, Griswold, Killingly, Lebanon, Lisbon, Naugatuck, North Branford, North Haven, North Stonington, Plainfield, Plainville, Putnam, Salem, Southington, Sprague, Stafford, Union, and Voluntown voted Democratic and the last time that the towns of Avon, Darien, East Granby, Easton, Granby, Greenwich, New Canaan, Newtown, Orange, Ridgefield, and Wilton voted Republican.

Primary elections

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Democratic primary

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As Barack Obama was the only candidate to qualify, no Democratic primary was held.[3]

Republican primary

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2012 Connecticut Republican presidential primary
 
← 2008 April 24, 2012 (2012-04-24) 2016 →
     
Candidate Mitt Romney Ron Paul
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Delegate count 25 0
Popular vote 40,171 8,032
Percentage 67.43% 13.48%
     
Candidate Newt Gingrich Rick Santorum
Home state Georgia Pennsylvania
Delegate count 0 0
Popular vote 6,135 4,072
Percentage 10.30% 6.83%
 
Connecticut results by county
  Mitt Romney
(Note: Italicization indicates a withdrawn candidacy)

The 2012 Connecticut Republican presidential primary took place on April 24, 2012.[4] It was a closed primary, open only to Republican electors. 25 of the state's 28 delegates to the 2012 Republican National Convention were decided by the primary outcome, with the other 3 being superdelegates: the state party chairman and the state's two Republican National Committee representatives.

Mitt Romney won the primary by a wide margin, garnering two-thirds of the vote. Only 14.4% of active registered Republicans participated in the primary, the lowest turnout since the primary format was put in place in the state in 1980.[5]

Process

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After switching from proportional distribution of delegates to a winner-take-all system in 1996,[6] the Connecticut Republican Party voted in September 2011 to award delegates by a hybrid winner-take-all and proportional distribution process beginning with the 2012 primary. Of the 25 regular delegates at stake in the primary, the party called for three delegates to be awarded to the winner of each of the state's five congressional districts on a winner-take-all basis for a total of 15 delegates. The remaining 10 would be distributed proportionally based on the statewide vote total among candidates receiving at least 20% support unless a candidate won a majority of the statewide vote, in which case the candidate would receive all 10 of these delegates.[6][7]

With Romney's primary day wins in all five congressional districts and a majority of the statewide vote, he was able to claim all 25 of the delegates at stake.

Opinion polling

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Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Quinnipiac[8]
Margin of error: ±4.7%
Sample size: 429 		Mar. 14–19, 2012 Mitt Romney
42% 		Rick Santorum
19% 		Newt Gingrich
13% 		Ron Paul 9%, Won't vote 3%, Don't know/No answer 14%
Public Policy Polling[9]
Margin of error: ±4.9%
Sample size: 400 		Sep. 22–25, 2011 Mitt Romney
25% 		Rick Perry
18% 		Herman Cain
10% 		Newt Gingrich 10%, Ron Paul 10%, Michele Bachmann 8%, Jon Huntsman 3%, Rick Santorum 3%, Gary Johnson 1%, someone else/not sure 12%
Mitt Romney
45% 		Rick Perry
36% 		– not sure 19%
Quinnipiac[10]
Margin of error: ±5.4%
Sample size: 332 		Sep. 8–13, 2011 Mitt Romney
37% 		Rick Perry
19% 		Michele Bachmann
8% 		Sarah Palin 4%, Herman Cain 3%, Newt Gingrich 3%, Ron Paul 3%, Jon Huntsman 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Thaddeus McCotter 0%, someone else/undecided 20%
Public Policy Polling[11]
Margin of error: ±7.3%
Sample size: 180 		Oct. 27–29, 2010 Mitt Romney
28% 		Mike Huckabee
15% 		Newt Gingrich
14% 		Sarah Palin 11%, Tim Pawlenty 5%, Mike Pence 5%, Mitch Daniels 4%, John Thune 2%, someone else/undecided 18%

Results

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2012 Connecticut Republican presidential primary[12]
Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates
  Mitt Romney 40,171 67.43% 25
Ron Paul 8,032 13.48% 0
Newt Gingrich 6,135 10.30% 0
Rick Santorum 4,072 6.83% 0
Uncommitted 1,168 1.96% 0
Unprojected delegates: 0
Total: 59,578 100% 25

Official source reports a turnout of 59,639, with the difference from 59,578 likely due to blank ballots.

Key: Suspended campaign prior to contest

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Huffington Post[13] Safe D November 6, 2012
CNN[14] Safe D November 6, 2012
New York Times[15] Safe D November 6, 2012
Washington Post[16] Safe D November 6, 2012
RealClearPolitics[17] Solid D November 6, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[18] Solid D November 5, 2012
FiveThirtyEight[19] Solid D November 6, 2012

Ballot access

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  • Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan, Republican
  • Barack Obama/Joseph Biden, Democratic
  • Gary Johnson/James P. Gray, Libertarian
  • Rocky Anderson/Luis J. Rodriguez, Justice

Write-in candidate access:

  • Jill Stein/Cheri Honkala, Green
  • Virgil Goode/Jim Clymer, Constitution
  • Raymond Sizemore/Vicki Tomalin, Independent

Results

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2012 United States presidential election in Connecticut
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic Barack Obama (incumbent) Joe Biden (incumbent) 905,109 58.06% 7
Republican Mitt Romney Paul Ryan 634,899 40.72% 0
Libertarian Gary Johnson Jim Gray 12,580 0.81% 0
Justice Rocky Anderson Luis J. Rodriguez 5,487 0.35% 0
Green (Write-in) Jill Stein (Write-in) Cheri Honkala 863 0.06% 0
American Independent (Write-in) Thomas Hoefling (Write-in) Jonathan D. Ellis 25 0.00% 0
Write-ins Write-ins 25 0.00% 0
Socialist Workers (Write-in) James Harris (Write-in) Maura DeLuca 5 0.00% 0
Totals 1,558,960 100.00% 7

By county

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County Barack Obama
Democratic 		Mitt Romney
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Fairfield 217,294 54.85% 175,168 44.22% 3,668 0.93% 42,126 10.63% 396,130
Hartford 244,639 62.37% 143,238 36.52% 4,363 1.11% 101,401 25.85% 392,240
Litchfield 43,856 47.45% 47,201 51.07% 1,370 1.48% -3,345 -3.62% 92,427
Middlesex 47,855 57.29% 34,591 41.41% 1,092 1.30% 13,264 15.88% 83,538
New Haven 218,998 60.65% 138,364 38.32% 3,697 1.03% 80,634 22.33% 361,059
New London 67,144 58.33% 46,119 40.07% 1,839 1.60% 21,025 18.26% 115,102
Tolland 39,366 55.45% 30,450 42.89% 1,175 1.66% 8,916 12.56% 70,991
Windham 25,957 55.72% 19,768 42.43% 863 1.85% 6,189 13.29% 46,588
Totals 905,109 58.06% 634,899 40.72% 18,985 1.22% 270,210 17.34% 1,558,993
 
County Flips:
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

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Obama won all 5 congressional districts.[20]

District Obama Romney Representative
1st 63.3% 35.6% John B. Larson
2nd 55.9% 42.57% Joe Courtney
3rd 62.6% 36.3% Rosa DeLauro
4th 55.07% 44.02% Jim Himes
5th 53.53% 45.31% Elizabeth Esty

Analysis

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Voter demographics

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2012 Connecticut presidential election (New York Times)[21]
Demographic subgroup Obama Romney % of
total vote
Ideology
Liberals 93 6 28
Moderates 56 42 47
Conservatives 19 80 24
Party
Democrats 94 6 41
Republicans 9 91 26
Independents 51 46 32
Age
18–29 years old 66 30 13
30–44 years old 55 44 24
45–64 years old 58 41 43
65 and older 54 46 20
Gender
Men 51 47 47
Women 63 36 53
Marital status
Married 54 45 64
Unmarried 65 33 36
Race/ethnicity
White 51 48 79
Black 93 7 11
Latino 79 20 6
Education
Never attended college 62 37 41
Some college education 60 39 24
College graduate 49 49 31
Advanced degree 60 38 29
Income
Under $30K 73 24 12
$30K-$49K 73 26 13
$50K or more 53 46 75
$100K or more 53 46 46

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Connecticut Statement of Vote". CT SoS. Archived from the original on December 7, 2012. Retrieved January 19, 2013.
  2. ^ a b "2012 Connecticut Presidential Results". POLITICO. Retrieved September 1, 2020.
  3. ^ "Merrill: No Democratic Presidential Preference Primary in Connecticut, Only Four Candidates for Republican Ballot on April 24th" (PDF). Secretary of the State of Connecticut. March 5, 2012. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 6, 2015. Retrieved October 21, 2012.
  4. ^ "Presidential Primary Dates" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Retrieved January 23, 2012.
  5. ^ "Merrill Releases Turnout Figure From 2012 Presidential Preference Primary, Romney Wins All 25 Delegates at Stake" (PDF). Connecticut Secretary of the State. April 25, 2012. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 6, 2015. Retrieved May 2, 2012.
  6. ^ a b Vigdor, Neil (September 28, 2011). "State GOP moves away from winner-take-all presidential primary". GreenwichTime.com. Retrieved April 26, 2012.
  7. ^ "Connecticut Republican State Central Committee Rules and Bylaws" (PDF). September 27, 2011. Section 17. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 12, 2012. Retrieved April 19, 2012.
  8. ^ Quinnipiac
  9. ^ Public Policy Polling
  10. ^ Quinnipiac
  11. ^ Public Policy Polling
  12. ^ "Connecticut Republican Presidential Primary" (PDF). Secretary of the State of Connecticut. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 29, 2012. Retrieved May 9, 2012.
  13. ^ "Huffington Post Election Dashboard". HuffPost. Archived from the original on August 13, 2013.
  14. ^ "America's Choice 2012 Election Center: CNN Electoral Map". CNN. Archived from the original on January 19, 2013.
  15. ^ "Election 2012 - The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory". The New York Times. Archived from the original on July 8, 2012.
  16. ^ "2012 Presidential Election Results". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on July 26, 2012.
  17. ^ "RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Archived from the original on June 8, 2011.
  18. ^ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM".
  19. ^ "Nate Silver's political calculations predict 2012 election outcome".
  20. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
  21. ^ "President Exit Polls". The New York Times.
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