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2012 United States presidential election in Washington (state)

(Redirected from 2012 Washington Democratic presidential caucuses)

Main article: 2012 United States presidential election

The 2012 United States presidential election in Washington took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Washington voters chose 12 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan.

2012 United States presidential election in Washington (state)
← 2008 November 6, 2012 2016 →
Turnout81.25% (of registered voters) Decrease3.36%[1]
 
Nominee Barack Obama Mitt Romney
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Illinois Massachusetts
Running mate Joe Biden Paul Ryan
Electoral vote 12 0
Popular vote 1,755,396 1,290,670
Percentage 55.80% 41.03%
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

President Obama easily won the state of Washington, taking 55.80% of the vote to Mitt Romney's 41.03%, a 14.77% margin of victory.[2] In terms of raw vote total, Obama received 1,755,396 votes to Romney's 1,290,670 votes, a 464,726 vote margin. Obama received the largest number of votes of any candidate up to that point, a record which would be broken by his then-running mate Joe Biden in 2020, when Biden broke Obama's record by 614,216 votes.[3] Third parties collectively made up 79,450 votes, or 2.54%. Obama led in every single poll conducted, often by double digits. Washington has not voted for a Republican since Ronald Reagan carried it in his 1984 landslide, and today is considered part of the Blue Wall, a bloc of 242 electoral votes that have safely voted for the Democratic nominee since 1992. Despite being a Republican-leaning swing state in the early- to mid-20th century, the rise of cultural conservatism and resistance to social liberalism in the Republican Party pushed voters in Washington, as well as many other Blue Wall states, away from the Republicans.[4]

Caucuses

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Democratic caucuses

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As incumbent President Barack Obama ran without opposition nationwide, the non-binding primary was canceled by the Washington State Legislature. Precinct caucuses took place on April 15, legislative district caucuses on April 28, county conventions on April 29, and congressional district caucuses on May 30. The Washington state convection took place from June 1 to 3, and according to The Green Papers, Obama ran unopposed in the caucuses, receiving 114 delegates in the Democratic National Convention floor vote. The other 6 delegates' votes were unannounced.[5]

Republican caucuses

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Main article: 2012 Washington Republican presidential caucuses
 
Results of the non-binding strawpoll by county. Orange indicates a county won by Romney, gold by Paul, dark green by Santorum.

The Republican caucuses were held on March 3, 2012.[6] The additional preferential primary, as held since 1992, was canceled this year for budgetary reasons, as was the one in 2004.[7] Caucus participants, however, did not allocate national delegates to the candidates – they only elected delegates to the county conventions and took part in a nonbinding straw poll. Only the state convention from May 31 to June 2, 2012, legally pledged delegates to the national convention to specific candidates.

Results

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With 3,677,919 registered voters as of February 29,[8] the turnout was 1.4%.[9] Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney won the caucuses with a plurality, receiving 19,111 votes or 37.65%. Ron Paul, representative from Texas's 14th district, narrowly won second place with 24.81% of the vote against former Senator from Pennsylvania Rick Santorum's 23.81%. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich placed fourth, with 5,221 votes, or 10.28%. The other 3.44% of votes were uncommitted or write-ins.

Washington state Republican caucuses nonbinding strawpoll
Candidate Votes Percentage
Mitt Romney 19,111 37.65%
Ron Paul 12,594 24.81%
Rick Santorum 12,089 23.81%
Newt Gingrich 5,221 10.28%
Uncommitted 1,656 3.26%
Total Write-Ins 93 0.18%
Totals 50,764 100.00%

Convention

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At the Republican National Convention, Romney received all 3 delegates from the 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 8th, 9th, and 10th districts. Ron Paul received 2 delegates from the 3rd district and all 3 from the 7th. The 3rd district also allocated 1 delegate to Rick Santorum. All 10 state delegates were allocated to Romney, as were the 3 superdelegates.

Convention Results[10][11][12]
Candidate 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th State Party
leaders 		Total
Mitt Romney 3 3 0 3 3 3 0 3 3 3 10 3 37
Ron Paul 0 0 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 5
Rick Santorum 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Total 30 10 3 43

General election

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Polling

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Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the 2012 United States presidential election § Washington

President Obama consistently led in polling up until election day: at one point, a SurveyUSA poll conducted from September 28 to 30 had him leading by 20 points. In only two polls did Obama lead by single digits: a Public Policy Polling poll conducted October 15 to 16 had him leading by 5 points, and another conducted November 1 to 3 had him up 7. An average of all polls conducted before election day had Obama leading by 13.6 percentage points.

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
YouGov[13] October 31 – November 3, 2012 Barack Obama 54% Mitt Romney 40% 14 837 LV ±--%
Public Policy Polling[14] November 1–3, 2012 Barack Obama 53% Mitt Romney 46% 7 932 LV ±3.2%
Survey USA[15] October 28–31, 2012 Barack Obama 54% Mitt Romney 40% 14 555 LV ±4.2%
University of Washington[16] October 18–31, 2012 Barack Obama 57% Mitt Romney 36% 21 632 LV ±3.9%
Strategies 360[17] October 17–20, 2012 Barack Obama 52% Mitt Romney 39% 13 500 LV ±4.4%
Public Policy Polling[18] October 15–16, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 45% 5 574 LV ±--%
The Washington Poll[19] October 1–16, 2012 Barack Obama 52% Mitt Romney 41% 11 782 LV ±3.5%
Rasmussen Reports[20] October 14, 2012 Barack Obama 55% Mitt Romney 42% 13 500 LV ±4.5%
SurveyUSA[21] October 12–14, 2012 Barack Obama 54% Mitt Romney 40% 14 543 LV ±4.3%
SurveyUSA[22] September 28–30, 2012 Barack Obama 56% Mitt Romney 36% 20 540 LV ±4.3%
Rasmussen Reports[20] September 26, 2012 Barack Obama 52% Mitt Romney 41% 11 500 LV ±4.5%
Gravis Marketing[23] September 21–22, 2012 Barack Obama 56% Mitt Romney 39% 17 625 RV ±4.6%
Elway[24] September 9–12, 2012 Barack Obama 53% Mitt Romney 36% 17 405 RV ±5.0%
Public Policy Polling[25] September 7–9, 2012 Barack Obama 53% Mitt Romney 42% 11 563 ±n/a%
KING5NEWS/SurveyUSA[26] September 7–9, 2012 Barack Obama 54% Mitt Romney 38% 16 700 ±4.4%

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Huffington Post[27] Lean D November 6, 2012
CNN[28] Safe D November 6, 2012
New York Times[29] Safe D November 6, 2012
Washington Post[30] Safe D November 6, 2012
RealClearPolitics[31] Lean D November 6, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[32] Solid D November 5, 2012
FiveThirtyEight[33] Solid D November 6, 2012

Candidate ballot access

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[2]

Results

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2012 United States presidential election in Washington (state)[2]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic Barack Obama (incumbent) Joe Biden (incumbent) 1,755,396 55.80% 12
Republican Mitt Romney Paul Ryan 1,290,670 41.03% 0
Libertarian Gary Johnson Jim Gray 42,202 1.34% 0
Green Jill Stein Cheri Honkala 20,928 0.67% 0
Write-ins 20,442 0.65% 0
Constitution Virgil Goode Jim Clymer 8,851 0.28% 0
Justice Rocky Anderson Luis J. Rodriguez 4,946 0.16% 0
Socialism and Liberation Peta Lindsay Yari Osorio 1,318 0.04% 0
Socialist Workers James Harris Alyson Kennedy 1,205 0.04% 0
Totals 3,145,958 100.00% 12

By county

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County Barack Obama
Democratic 		Mitt Romney
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adams 1,540 31.94% 3,171 65.76% 111 2.30% -1,631 -33.82% 4,822
Asotin 4,003 40.14% 5,654 56.70% 315 3.16% -1,651 -16.56% 9,972
Benton 28,145 35.09% 49,461 61.66% 2,611 3.25% -21,316 -26.57% 80,217
Chelan 13,112 40.36% 18,402 56.64% 974 3.00% -5,290 -16.28% 32,488
Clallam 18,580 48.40% 18,437 48.03% 1,368 3.57% 143 0.37% 38,385
Clark 93,382 48.59% 92,951 48.37% 5,843 3.04% 431 0.22% 192,176
Columbia 645 28.29% 1,568 68.77% 67 2.94% -923 -40.48% 2,280
Cowlitz 22,726 50.49% 20,746 46.09% 1,540 3.42% 1,980 4.40% 45,012
Douglas 5,166 34.30% 9,425 62.58% 469 3.12% -4,259 -28.28% 15,060
Ferry 1,294 37.10% 1,995 57.20% 199 5.70% -701 -20.10% 3,488
Franklin 8,398 36.89% 13,748 60.39% 618 2.72% -5,350 -23.50% 22,764
Garfield 336 26.23% 913 71.27% 32 2.50% -577 -45.04% 1,281
Grant 8,950 32.16% 17,852 64.15% 1,027 3.69% -8,902 -31.99% 27,829
Grays Harbor 15,960 55.14% 11,914 41.16% 1,073 3.70% 4,046 13.98% 28,947
Island 21,478 50.69% 19,605 46.27% 1,289 3.04% 1,873 4.42% 42,372
Jefferson 12,739 63.82% 6,405 32.09% 817 4.09% 6,334 31.73% 19,961
King 668,004 68.72% 275,700 28.36% 28,317 2.92% 392,304 40.36% 972,021
Kitsap 67,277 54.21% 52,846 42.58% 3,978 3.21% 14,431 11.63% 124,101
Kittitas 7,949 43.45% 9,782 53.47% 562 3.08% -1,833 -10.02% 18,293
Klickitat 4,598 44.25% 5,316 51.16% 477 4.59% -718 -6.91% 10,391
Lewis 12,664 36.90% 20,452 59.59% 1,204 3.51% -7,788 -22.69% 34,320
Lincoln 1,673 28.30% 4,063 68.74% 175 2.96% -2,390 -40.44% 5,911
Mason 14,764 51.82% 12,761 44.79% 964 3.39% 2,003 7.03% 28,489
Okanogan 7,108 41.80% 9,221 54.23% 674 3.97% -2,113 -12.43% 17,003
Pacific 5,711 53.69% 4,499 42.30% 426 4.01% 1,212 11.39% 10,636
Pend Oreille 2,508 37.16% 3,952 58.56% 289 4.28% -1,444 -21.40% 6,749
Pierce 186,430 54.05% 148,467 43.04% 10,035 2.91% 37,963 11.01% 344,932
San Juan 7,125 66.64% 3,111 29.10% 456 4.26% 4,014 37.54% 10,692
Skagit 28,688 51.51% 25,071 45.01% 1,938 3.48% 3,617 6.50% 55,697
Skamania 2,628 47.51% 2,687 48.57% 217 3.92% -59 -1.06% 5,532
Snohomish 188,516 56.79% 133,016 40.07% 10,436 3.14% 55,500 16.72% 331,968
Spokane 102,295 45.31% 115,285 51.07% 8,174 3.62% -12,990 -5.76% 225,754
Stevens 7,762 34.50% 13,691 60.85% 1,047 4.65% -5,929 -26.35% 22,500
Thurston 74,037 57.96% 49,287 38.58% 4,416 3.46% 24,750 21.18% 127,740
Wahkiakum 1,094 47.30% 1,119 48.38% 100 4.32% -25 -1.08% 2,313
Walla Walla 9,768 38.61% 14,648 57.90% 882 3.49% -4,880 -19.29% 25,298
Whatcom 57,089 55.01% 42,703 41.14% 3,996 3.85% 14,386 13.87% 103,788
Whitman 8,037 46.54% 8,507 49.26% 726 4.20% -470 -2.72% 17,270
Yakima 33,217 42.86% 42,239 54.50% 2,050 2.64% -9,022 -11.64% 77,506
Totals 1,755,396 55.80% 1,290,670 41.03% 99,892 3.18% 464,726 14.77% 3,145,958
 
County Flips:
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

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President Obama won 7 of 10 congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican.

District Barack Obama

Democratic

Mitt Romney

Republican

Other[a] Representative
1st 54.1% 43.3% 2.6% Jay Inslee (111th Congress)
Suzan DelBene (112th Congress)
2nd 59.2% 38.0% 2.8% Rick Larsen
3rd 47.9% 49.6% 2.5% Jaime Herrera Beutler
4th 37.9% 59.7% 2.4% Doc Hastings
5th 43.7% 53.5% 2.8% Cathy McMorris Rodgers
6th 56.1% 41.2% 2.7% Norm Dicks (111th Congress)
Derek Kilmer (112th Congress)
7th 79.2% 18.1% 2.7% Jim McDermott
8th 49.7% 48.1% 2.2% Dave Reichert
9th 68.3% 29.6% 2.1% Adam Smith
10th 56.3% 41.1% 2.6% district created
Denny Heck

Analysis

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As with all other Pacific states, Washington politics are dominated by its progressive metropolitan areas. Washington itself is one of the most progressive states in the country, most notably on women's issues: it was one of the first states to loosen abortion restrictions[4] and is the United States' 7th most secular state.[34] Economically, while Washington was historically a socially liberal and economically conservative state, it has become more dominated by leftism in the past few years at the presidential, congressional, and local level.[4][35] Thus, an Obama win was near guaranteed. He dominated the Seattle–Tacoma metropolitan area, winning 69.07% of the vote (a 40.56% margin) in King County, the largest in the state and home to Seattle. King County alone casts 29% of the state's ballots, and the Seattle metropolitan area (as defined by the United States Census Bureau) comprised 69.66% of the state's population in 2012.[36][37] This area of Washington also has the highest minority composition with a 15% Asian, 9% Hispanic, and 7% African American population, and is dominated by diverse, well-educated voters. The Seattle LGBT community is one of the largest in the country.[4] Thurston County, the 6th largest county in the state and home to the state capital of Olympia, gave Obama 58.27% of the vote, a 19.48% margin. The Democratic ticket also won by great margins in the counties of (in decreasing order of margin) Snohomish (Everett), Whatcom (Bellingham), Kitsap (Bremerton), and Pierce (Tacoma). Clark County, home to Vancouver, in the southwest of the state, was won by the president with a 431-vote margin. Overall, Western Washington voted 7.7% more Democratic than the state overall.[35]

Meanwhile, Romney's best performance was in the east of the state, which is mostly rural and sparse and has an economy dominated by agriculture. Washington's geographic divide resembles that of California and Oregon: voters east of the Cascade Mountains are the most conservative in Washington, and Eastern Washington voted 28.5% more Republican than the state as a whole.[35] While comprising most of the counties in the state, this area casts only one-fifth of the ballots. Though many of these counties the Republicans won with over 60% of the vote, these victories were not able to offset Obama's landslide margins in the Seattle–Tacoma metro. Romney's biggest prize was Spokane County, which gave him over 115,000 votes and a 5.81% margin of victory. He also won Yakima County. However, he was able to flip four counties that Obama won in 2008: Klickitat, Skamania, Wahkhiakum, and Whitman. Obama thus became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Skamania or Wahkiakum Counties since Woodrow Wilson in 1916 and the first to do so without carrying Klickitat County since John F. Kennedy in 1960.

This election continued Clallam County's bellwether streak, marking the 9th election since 1980 that it voted for the winner of the nationwide election. Clallam's streak would eventually become the longest of any county in 2020.[38] Washington weighed in as 11.01% more Democratic than the national average in 2012. As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last presidential election in which the Republican nominee won Whitman County and the Democratic nominee won Cowlitz, Grays Harbor, Mason, and Pacific Counties. This is also the last time a Republican received more than 40% of the vote in Washington.

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ Calculated by subtracting Obama and Romney's percentages from 100.

References

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  1. ^ Secretary of State: Kim Wyman. "November 6, 2012 General Election Results". www.sos.wa.gov. Retrieved May 25, 2020.
  2. ^ a b c "November 06, 2012 General Election Results: President/Vice President". www.wa.gov. Washington Secretary of State. Retrieved December 5, 2020.
  3. ^ "November 3, 2020 General Election Results – President/Vice President". www.wa.gov. Washington Secretary of State. Retrieved December 5, 2020.
  4. ^ a b c d Cohen, Micah (September 25, 2012). "Washington State, Women's Rights and Big Cities". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved December 5, 2020.
  5. ^ "Washington Democratic Delegation 2012". The Green Papers. Retrieved December 5, 2020.
  6. ^ Grygiel, Chris (September 27, 2011). "Washington state GOP to hold presidential caucus March 3". Seattle Post-Intelligencer. Hearst Corporation. ISSN 0745-970X. OCLC 3734418. Retrieved January 10, 2011.
  7. ^ "GOP candidates vie for delegates in Washington, feet planted in Ohio". Fox News. March 3, 2012. Retrieved March 3, 2012.
  8. ^ "Elections & Voting". Washington Secretary of State – Elections Division. Retrieved March 4, 2012.
  9. ^ Washington Republican – The Green Papers
  10. ^ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on June 10, 2012. Retrieved July 19, 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  11. ^ "Washington Republican Delegation 2012".
  12. ^ @FHQ (June 2, 2012). "Includes the 3 automatic delegates..." (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  13. ^ YouGov
  14. ^ Public Policy Polling
  15. ^ Survey USA
  16. ^ "University of Washington" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on November 4, 2012. Retrieved December 5, 2020.
  17. ^ Strategies 360
  18. ^ Public Policy Polling
  19. ^ The Washington Poll
  20. ^ a b Rasmussen Reports
  21. ^ SurveyUSA
  22. ^ SurveyUSA
  23. ^ Gravis Marketing
  24. ^ Elway
  25. ^ Public Policy Polling
  26. ^ KING5NEWS/SurveyUSA
  27. ^ "Huffington Post Election Dashboard". HuffPost. Archived from the original on August 13, 2013.
  28. ^ "America's Choice 2012 Election Center: CNN Electoral Map". CNN. Archived from the original on January 19, 2013.
  29. ^ "Election 2012 - The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory". The New York Times. Archived from the original on July 8, 2012.
  30. ^ "2012 Presidential Election Results". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on July 26, 2012.
  31. ^ "RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Archived from the original on June 8, 2011.
  32. ^ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM".
  33. ^ "Nate Silver's political calculations predict 2012 election outcome".
  34. ^ Lipka, Michael; Wormald, Benjamin (February 29, 2016). "Most and least religious U.S. states". Pew Research Center. Retrieved December 5, 2020.
  35. ^ a b c Savicki, Drew (June 1, 2020). "The Road to 270: Washington". 270toWin. Retrieved December 5, 2020.
  36. ^ "State Population Totals: 2010–2019". The United States Census Bureau. Retrieved December 5, 2020.
  37. ^ "County Population Totals: 2010–2019". The United States Census Bureau. Retrieved December 5, 2020.
  38. ^ Farley, Josh (November 7, 2020). "What does Clallam County know? Voters just chose a winner for the tenth straight election". Kitsap Sun. Retrieved December 5, 2020.
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