The 2014 United States Senate election in Massachusetts was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, concurrently with the election of the Governor of Massachusetts, other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
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Markey: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Herr: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Democratic Senator Ed Markey ran for re-election to a first full term in office.[1] Primary elections were held on September 9, 2014. Markey was unopposed for the Democratic nomination; Hopkinton Selectman Brian Herr was also unopposed for the Republican nomination.
Background
editIncumbent Democratic Senator John Kerry, serving since 1985, had planned to run for re-election to a sixth term, but on December 15, 2012, it was announced that the long-time Massachusetts senator and 2004 presidential nominee would be nominated as United States Secretary of State under President Barack Obama. Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick appointed Mo Cowan as a temporary replacement for Kerry, after he was confirmed as secretary of state and therefore resigned his senate seat. There was a special election on June 25, 2013, to finish the term, which was won by Ed Markey, the 37-year Democratic incumbent from Massachusetts's 5th congressional district.
Democratic primary
editCandidates
editDeclared
editWithdrew
edit- John Kerry, U.S. Secretary of State and former U.S. Senator[2][3]
Declined
editRepublican primary
editCandidates
editDeclared
editDid not qualify
edit- Frank Addivinola, attorney, candidate for Massachusetts's 5th congressional district in 2012 and 2013[7][8]
- J. Mark Inman, contestant on The X Factor in 2011[8][9][10]
Declined
edit- Keith Ablow, psychiatrist and Fox News contributor[11]
- Charlie Baker, former state cabinet secretary and nominee for governor in 2010 (ran for governor)[12]
- Scott Brown, former U.S. Senator (ran for the U.S. Senate in New Hampshire)[13]
- Gabriel E. Gomez, businessman, former Navy SEAL and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2013[14]
- Richard Tisei, former State Senate Minority Leader, nominee for lieutenant governor in 2010 and nominee for MA-06 in 2012 (ran for Congress)[15]
- William Weld, former governor of Massachusetts and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996[15]
- Daniel Winslow, former state representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2013[16]
Independent
editCandidates
editWithdrew
editGeneral election
editPredictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[18] | Solid D | November 3, 2014 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Safe D | November 3, 2014 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[20] | Safe D | November 3, 2014 |
| Real Clear Politics[21] | Safe D | November 3, 2014 |
Polling
edit| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ed Markey (D) |
Brian Herr (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[22] | July 5–24, 2014 | 1,846 | ± 4.9% | 61% | 34% | 2% | 3% |
| Boston Globe[23] | September 14–16, 2014 | 407 | ± 4.85% | 53% | 27% | — | 21% |
| Rasmussen Reports[24] | September 16–17, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 49% | 31% | 5% | 15% |
| WBUR/MassINC[25] | September 16–21, 2014 | 502 | ± 4.4% | 58% | 30% | 1% | 11% |
| WNEU[26] | September 20–28, 2014 | 416 LV | ± 5% | 56% | 34% | — | 10% |
| 536 RV | ± 4% | 52% | 34% | — | 14% | ||
| Suffolk University[27] | September 25–28, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 54% | 30% | — | 16% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[28] | September 20 – October 1, 2014 | 2,389 | ± 2% | 54% | 31% | 1% | 14% |
| WBUR/MassINC[29] | October 1–4, 2014 | 504 | ± 4.4% | 56% | 30% | 1% | 13% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[28] | October 16–23, 2014 | 2,218 | ± 3% | 54% | 32% | 0% | 14% |
| WBUR/MassINC[30] | October 22–25, 2014 | 494 | ± 4.4% | 57% | 32% | 1% | 9% |
| Umass Amherst[31] | October 20–27, 2014 | 591 LV | ± 4.4% | 53% | 37% | — | 9% |
| 800 RV | ± 3.8% | 52% | 32% | — | 15% | ||
| Suffolk University[32] | October 27–29, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 34% | — | 17% |
| WNEU[33] | October 21–30, 2014 | 430 LV | ± 5% | 54% | 34% | — | 12% |
| 522 RV | ± 4% | 53% | 31% | — | 17% | ||
| Public Policy Polling[34] | October 30 – November 2, 2014 | 887 | ± 3.3% | 52% | 38% | — | 10% |
Hypothetical polling
With Markey
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ed Markey (D) |
Frank Addivinola (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[22] | July 5–24, 2014 | 1,901 | ± 4.9% | 59% | 34% | 2% | 5% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[28] | August 18 – September 2, 2014 | 3,361 | ± 2% | 53% | 28% | 2% | 17% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ed Markey (D) |
Scott Brown (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MassInc[35] | July 17–20, 2013 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 43% | 38% | 2% | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling[36] | September 20–23, 2013 | 616 | ± 4% | 46% | 45% | — | 9% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ed Markey (D) |
Gabriel Gomez (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[36] | September 20–23, 2013 | 616 | ± 4% | 53% | 35% | — | 12% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ed Markey (D) |
Richard Tisei (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[36] | September 20–23, 2013 | 616 | ± 4% | 54% | 27% | — | 19% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ed Markey (D) |
Bill Weld (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[36] | September 20–23, 2013 | 616 | ± 4% | 47% | 41% | — | 11% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ed Markey (D) |
Generic Republican |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WBUR/MassINC[37] | March 14–16, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 50% | 29% | — | 21% |
With Kerry
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Kerry (D) |
Generic Republican |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | September 13–16, 2012 | 1,051 | ± 3.3% | 54% | 33% | — | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling[39] | October 9–11, 2012 | 1,051 | ± 3.0% | 53% | 32% | — | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[40] | November 1–2, 2012 | 1,089 | ± 3.0% | 54% | 30% | — | 15% |
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ed Markey (incumbent) | 1,289,944 | 61.87% | +7.07% | |
| Republican | Brian Herr | 791,950 | 37.98% | −6.62% | |
| Write-in | 3,078 | 0.15% | -0.06% | ||
| Total votes | 2,084,972 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
edit- Barnstable (largest municipality: Barnstable)
- Bristol (largest municipality: New Bedford)
- Hampden (largest municipality: Springfield)
- Plymouth (largest municipality: Brockton)
- Worcester (largest municipality: Worcester)
By congressional district
editMarkey won all 9 congressional districts.[42]
| District | Herr | Markey | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 37.63% | 62.37% | Richard Neal |
| 2nd | 41.99% | 58.01% | Jim McGovern |
| 3rd | 42.04% | 57.96% | Niki Tsongas |
| 4th | 41.38% | 58.62% | Joe Kennedy III |
| 5th | 30.65% | 69.35% | Katherine Clark |
| 6th | 42.06% | 57.94% | John F. Tierney |
| 7th | 15.62% | 84.38% | Michael Capuano |
| 8th | 39.06% | 60.96% | Stephen Lynch |
| 9th | 44.54% | 55.46% | Bill Keating |
See also
editReferences
edit- ^ a b Hillary Chabot (June 26, 2013). "For Ed Markey, race is just beginning". Boston Herald. Retrieved September 26, 2013.
- ^ Dave Wedge (February 21, 2009). "John Kerry sets sights on 2014". Boston Herald. Archived from the original on August 25, 2012. Retrieved February 1, 2011.
- ^ "Sen. John Kerry plans re-election run for 2014, calls secretary of state ambitions 'rumors'". Washington Post. August 4, 2011. Retrieved August 4, 2011.[dead link]
- ^ Schoenberg, Shira (May 10, 2013). "After leaving U.S. Senate, Mo Cowan will not run for office". The Republican. Retrieved May 15, 2013.
- ^ "GOP's Herr to challenge Markey in Senate race". abc 6. January 29, 2014. Archived from the original on January 29, 2014. Retrieved January 29, 2014.
- ^ Miller, Joshua (January 29, 2014). "Hopkinton Republican launches bid for US Senate". Boston Globe. Retrieved January 29, 2014.
- ^ Schoenberg, Shira (February 18, 2014). "Republican Frank Addivinola launches campaign for U.S. Senate seat held by Ed Markey". masslive.com. Retrieved February 18, 2014.
- ^ a b "2014 Republican Primary Candidates". Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Retrieved September 8, 2014.
- ^ a b Sutner, Shaun (February 14, 2014). "Senate candidate Skarin wants to win $15 by $15". Worcester Telegram. Retrieved February 14, 2014.
- ^ Arthur Christopher Schaper (February 21, 2014). "Arthur Schaper: Mark Inman for US Senate (Really?!)". GoLocalWorcester.com. Retrieved April 29, 2014.
- ^ Cerullo, Mac (January 12, 2013). "Ablow vows truth in possible Senate run". Newburyport News. Retrieved May 28, 2013.
- ^ Phillips, Frank; O'Sullivan, Jim (September 3, 2013). "Republican Charles Baker to announce Mass. gubernatorial bid Wednesday". Boston Globe. Retrieved September 3, 2013.
- ^ Trygstad, Kyle (December 19, 2013). "Scott Brown: New Hampshire Move is 'Strictly Personal'". Roll Call. Archived from the original on December 22, 2013. Retrieved December 21, 2013.
- ^ Miller, Joshua (January 9, 2014). "Gomez will not run for office in 2014". Boston Globe. Retrieved January 9, 2014.
- ^ a b LeBlanc, Steve (November 11, 2012). "Eyes Turn To Future Of Mass. Governor and U.S. Senate Races". CBS Boston. Retrieved November 11, 2012.
- ^ Schoenberg, Shira (September 16, 2013). "State Rep. Dan Winslow resigns from House, rejoins private sector". The Republican. Retrieved September 16, 2013.
- ^ Rizzuto, Robert (July 30, 2014). "Independent US Senate hopeful Bruce Skarin ends campaign to challenge Sen. Ed Markey". MassLive. Retrieved August 20, 2014.
- ^ "2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- ^ "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- ^ "2014 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- ^ "2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- ^ a b CBS News/NYT/YouGov Archived 2014-09-08 at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Boston Globe
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ WBUR/MassINC
- ^ WNEU
- ^ Suffolk University
- ^ a b c CBS News/NYT/YouGov
- ^ WBUR/MassINC
- ^ WBUR/MassINC
- ^ Umass Amherst
- ^ Suffolk University
- ^ WNEU
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ MassInc
- ^ a b c d Public Policy Polling
- ^ WBUR/MassINC
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ "PD43+ >> 2014 U.S. Senate General Election". Massachusetts Elections Division. Retrieved July 23, 2018.
- ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.