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2016 United States presidential election in Montana

(Redirected from 2016 Montana Republican presidential primary)

Main article: 2016 United States presidential election

The 2016 United States presidential election in Montana was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Montana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Montana has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

2016 United States presidential election in Montana
← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout74.44% (of registered voters)[1] Increase
 
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton Gary Johnson
Party Republican Democratic Libertarian
Home state New York New York New Mexico
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine Bill Weld
Electoral vote 3 0 0
Popular vote 279,240 177,709 28,037
Percentage 56.17% 35.75% 5.64%
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color
Treemap of the popular vote by county

Trump carried the state by a 20.4% margin of victory, exceeding Mitt Romney's 13.7% margin in 2012 and John McCain's 2.4% margin in 2008. Republicans have won Montana in every presidential election since 1996, and in all but one beginning in 1968. Libertarian nominee and third-party candidate Gary Johnson received 5.6% of the vote.

This was Johnson's fifth strongest state, behind his native New Mexico as well as North Dakota, Alaska, and Oklahoma.

Primary elections

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Democratic primary

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Main article: 2016 Montana Democratic presidential primary

Two candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:

Montana Democratic primary, June 7, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Bernie Sanders 65,156 51.56% 11 1 12
Hillary Clinton 55,805 44.16% 10 5 15
No preference 5,415 4.28% 0 0 0
Uncommitted — 0 0 0
Total 126,376 100% 21 6 27
Source: [3][4]

Republican primary

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Republican primary results by county:
  Donald Trump
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%

Five candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:

Montana Republican primary, June 7, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 115,594 73.68% 27 0 27
Ted Cruz (withdrawn) 14,682 9.36% 0 0 0
John Kasich (withdrawn) 10,777 6.87% 0 0 0
No preference 7,369 4.70% 0 0 0
Marco Rubio (withdrawn) 5,192 3.31% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 3,274 2.09% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 156,888 100.00% 27 0 27
Source: The Green Papers

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
CNN[5] Safe R November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[6] Safe R November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[7] Safe R November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[8] Safe R November 7, 2016
NBC[9] Lean R November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[10] Likely R November 7, 2016

Results

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2016 United States presidential election in Montana[11][12]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican
279,240 56.17
Democratic
177,709 35.75
Libertarian
28,037 5.64
Green
7,970 1.60
Independent
2,297 0.46
American Delta
1,570 0.32
Constitution
296 0.06
American
10 0.00
Independent
7 0.00
Independent
3 0.00
Independent Robert Buchanan (write-in) 2 0.00
Independent
1 0.00
Independent
1 0.00
Socialist
1 0.00
Libertarian Darryl Perry (write-in) 1 0.00
Independent Joe Schriner (write-in) 1 0.00
Independent Laio Morris (write-in) 1 0.00
Total votes 497,147 100%
Republican win

By county

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County Donald Trump
Republican 		Hillary Clinton
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Beaverhead 3,353 69.15% 1,143 23.57% 353 7.28% 2,210 45.58% 4,849
Big Horn 1,853 43.73% 2,094 49.42% 290 6.85% -241 -5.69% 4,237
Blaine 1,268 47.24% 1,202 44.78% 214 7.98% 66 2.46% 2,684
Broadwater 2,348 74.94% 573 18.29% 212 6.77% 1,775 56.65% 3,133
Carbon 3,748 62.56% 1,828 30.51% 415 6.93% 1,920 32.05% 5,991
Carter 678 86.26% 70 8.91% 38 4.83% 608 77.35% 786
Cascade 19,632 56.79% 12,175 35.22% 2,764 7.99% 7,457 21.57% 34,571
Chouteau 1,679 64.50% 732 28.12% 192 7.38% 947 36.38% 2,603
Custer 3,657 70.53% 1,176 22.68% 352 6.79% 2,481 47.85% 5,185
Daniels 730 75.88% 168 17.46% 64 6.66% 562 58.42% 962
Dawson 3,320 75.30% 787 17.85% 302 6.85% 2,533 57.45% 4,409
Deer Lodge 1,763 41.92% 2,058 48.93% 385 9.15% -295 -7.01% 4,206
Fallon 1,279 86.19% 154 10.38% 51 3.43% 1,125 75.81% 1,484
Fergus 4,269 73.10% 1,202 20.58% 369 6.32% 3,067 52.52% 5,840
Flathead 30,240 63.67% 13,293 27.99% 3,963 8.34% 16,947 35.68% 47,496
Gallatin 23,802 44.23% 24,246 45.05% 5,771 10.72% -444 -0.82% 53,819
Garfield 653 90.95% 34 4.74% 31 4.31% 619 86.21% 718
Glacier 1,620 31.92% 3,121 61.50% 334 6.58% -1,501 -29.58% 5,075
Golden Valley 365 77.00% 71 14.98% 38 8.02% 294 62.02% 474
Granite 1,192 67.08% 472 26.56% 113 6.36% 720 40.52% 1,777
Hill 3,478 53.96% 2,371 36.79% 596 9.25% 1,107 17.17% 6,445
Jefferson 4,177 62.21% 1,998 29.76% 539 8.03% 2,179 32.45% 6,714
Judith Basin 872 72.19% 235 19.45% 101 8.36% 637 52.74% 1,208
Lake 7,530 57.13% 4,776 36.23% 875 6.64% 2,754 20.90% 13,181
Lewis and Clark 16,895 47.87% 14,478 41.02% 3,923 11.11% 2,417 6.85% 35,296
Liberty 698 72.63% 206 21.44% 57 5.93% 492 51.19% 961
Lincoln 6,729 72.12% 2,041 21.88% 560 6.00% 4,688 50.24% 9,330
Madison 3,297 69.51% 1,180 24.88% 266 5.61% 2,117 44.63% 4,743
McCone 862 78.72% 154 14.06% 79 7.22% 708 64.66% 1,095
Meagher 729 74.62% 193 19.75% 55 5.63% 536 54.87% 977
Mineral 1,330 66.10% 519 25.80% 163 8.10% 811 40.30% 2,012
Missoula 22,250 36.64% 31,543 51.95% 6,929 11.41% -9,293 -15.31% 60,722
Musselshell 1,967 80.58% 332 13.60% 142 5.82% 1,635 66.98% 2,441
Park 4,980 53.21% 3,595 38.41% 784 8.38% 1,385 14.80% 9,359
Petroleum 278 86.34% 30 9.32% 14 4.34% 248 77.02% 322
Phillips 1,723 79.36% 318 14.65% 130 5.99% 1,405 64.71% 2,171
Pondera 1,799 66.07% 738 27.10% 186 6.83% 1,061 38.97% 2,723
Powder River 884 83.95% 127 12.06% 42 3.99% 757 71.89% 1,053
Powell 2,029 72.62% 551 19.72% 214 7.66% 1,478 52.90% 2,794
Prairie 556 80.70% 100 14.51% 33 4.79% 456 66.19% 689
Ravalli 14,810 65.66% 6,223 27.59% 1,523 6.75% 8,587 38.07% 22,556
Richland 3,908 80.23% 671 13.78% 292 5.99% 3,237 66.45% 4,871
Roosevelt 1,797 49.21% 1,560 42.72% 295 8.07% 237 6.49% 3,652
Rosebud 2,253 65.25% 987 28.58% 213 6.17% 1,266 36.67% 3,453
Sanders 4,286 72.00% 1,218 20.46% 449 7.54% 3,068 51.54% 5,953
Sheridan 1,241 67.63% 477 25.99% 117 6.38% 764 41.64% 1,835
Silver Bow 6,376 38.76% 8,619 52.39% 1,457 8.85% -2,243 -13.63% 16,452
Stillwater 3,661 75.13% 908 18.63% 304 6.24% 2,753 56.50% 4,873
Sweet Grass 1,595 75.70% 402 19.08% 110 5.22% 1,193 56.62% 2,107
Teton 2,170 68.07% 808 25.35% 210 6.58% 1,362 42.72% 3,188
Toole 1,497 73.49% 402 19.73% 138 6.78% 1,095 53.76% 2,037
Treasure 351 79.23% 59 13.32% 33 7.45% 292 65.91% 443
Valley 2,698 69.29% 886 22.75% 310 7.96% 1,812 46.54% 3,894
Wheatland 702 74.21% 179 18.92% 65 6.87% 523 55.29% 946
Wibaux 463 85.58% 55 10.17% 23 4.25% 408 75.41% 541
Yellowstone 40,920 58.05% 22,171 31.45% 7,395 10.50% 18,749 26.60% 70,486
Totals 279,240 55.65% 177,709 35.41% 44,873 8.94% 101,531 20.24% 501,822
 
 
 
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

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Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated, the At-Large District. This district covers the entire state, and thus is equivalent to the statewide election results.

District Trump Clinton Representative
At-large 56.17% 35.25% Ryan Zinke

Analysis

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Like every Republican nominee since 1996, Donald Trump carried Montana's three electoral votes. He won by a large margin, and he swept most of the plains counties in eastern Montana, traditionally the most conservative part of the state, by staggering margins sometimes exceeding 60 points. The eastern part of the state has benefited from the recent energy boom in neighboring North Dakota, and its populace is suspicious and disapproving of the environmental movement championed by Democrats in recent elections.

Most counties in the western part of the state were also traditionally Republican, with a ranching-based economy heavily dependent on the raising and production of cattle and hay, particularly in the counties bordering Idaho such as Beaverhead County and Ravalli County. However, an influx of retirees from the West Coast have made the western region more competitive in recent elections.[13]

The only significant counties won by Clinton were Missoula County, where the city of Missoula is located, Gallatin County, where Bozeman is located, and Big Horn County and Glacier County, which are both majority Native American. While sweeping most of the rural, majority white conservative counties of the state, Trump also won in Lewis and Clark County where the capital city of Helena is located, in neighboring Cascade County where Great Falls is located, and in Yellowstone County where the city of Billings is located.[14]

Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Gallatin County since William McKinley in 1900.

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Montana Voter Turnout". Montana SoS. Retrieved February 7, 2024.
  2. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
  3. ^ The Green Papers
  4. ^ Montana Secretary of State - Official Primary Results
  5. ^ Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved February 17, 2019.
  6. ^ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Archived from the original on February 7, 2019. Retrieved February 17, 2019.
  7. ^ "2016 Predicted Electoral Map". Electoral-vote.com. Retrieved February 17, 2019.
  8. ^ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  9. ^ Todd, Chuck (November 7, 2016). "NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton". NBC News. Retrieved February 17, 2019.
  10. ^ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved February 17, 2019.
  11. ^ Federal Election Commission (December 2017). "Federal Elections 2016" (PDF). p. 35. Retrieved November 13, 2021.
  12. ^ Montana Secretary of State. "2016 General Election Official State-Filed Write-In Candidates" (PDF). Retrieved November 14, 2021.
  13. ^ Cohen, Micah (June 21, 2012). "Presidential Geography: Montana". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 26, 2016.
  14. ^ "Montana Election Results 2016". The New York Times. Retrieved November 26, 2016.
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