Wikipedia

2024 Kursk offensive

(Redirected from 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion)
"Ukrainian invasion of Russia" redirects here. For other attacks by Ukraine-aligned forces, see Attacks in Russia during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

On 6 August 2024, during the Russian invasion of Ukraine as part of the Russo-Ukrainian War, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched an incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast and clashed with the Russian Armed Forces and Russian border guard.[37][38][39] According to Russia, at least 1,000 troops crossed the border on the first day, supported by tanks and armored vehicles.[40] A state of emergency was declared in Kursk Oblast,[40] and Russian reserves were rushed to the area.[41] On 10 August, Russian authorities introduced a "counter-terrorist operation" regime in Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk oblasts.[42][43] By the end of the first week, the Ukrainian military said it had captured 1,000 km2 (390 sq mi) of Russian territory, while Russian authorities acknowledged that Ukraine had captured 28 settlements.[44] By early October, the advance of Ukraine had stalled.[45] Ukraine established a military administration for the territory under its control on 15 August 2024.

2024 Kursk offensive
Part of attacks in Russia during the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Kursk offensive as of 16 October
Date6 August 2024[a] – present
(3 months)
Location
Kursk Oblast,[b] Russia
Result Ongoing
Territorial
changes		 Ukrainian partial occupation of Kursk Oblast
Belligerents
 Ukraine  Russia
Commanders and leaders
Oleksandr Syrskyi[2]
Dmytro Kholod[3]
Eduard Moskaliov[2]		 Andrey Belousov[4]
Yunus-Bek Yevkurov[4]
Alexei Smirnov
Aleksey Dyumin
Alexander Bortnikov[5]
Apti Alaudinov[6]
Units involved
See order of battle See order of battle
Strength

Russian claim:
300 soldiers
11 tanks
20+ armoured fighting vehicles
(6 August 2024)[7]
1,000 soldiers[8][9]
(7 August 2024)

Western estimate:
10,000 to 15,000 soldiers and 600 armored vehicles[10][11]
(14 August 2024)
15,000–30,000 soldiers[12]
(20 August 2024)

Per Ukraine:
30,000 soldiers
(27 August 2024)[13]

Western estimate:
40,000 soldiers
(12 October 2024)[14]
Casualties and losses

65+ pieces of equipment, including 4 tanks[15]

Per Russia:
26,000+ casualties[21]
100 captured[3]
1,740 pieces of equipment[22]
26 unmanned aerial vehicles[23]

40+ pieces of equipment, including 11 tanks[15]

115–247+ captured[26][27]

Per Ukraine:
6,662 killed, 10,446 wounded, 711 POWs
45 tanks, 256 armored vehicles, 565 vehicles, 99 artillery systems and 5 MLRs destroyed[28][29]
1 Mi-28 helicopter[30]
1 Su-34 aircraft[31]
1 T-90M tank captured[32]
4 T-80 BVM tanks captured
2 T-72 tanks captured[33]
56 civilians killed[34]
266 civilians injured[34]
144,000+ civilians evacuated[35] (133,000+ evacuated in Kursk Oblast and 11,000+ evacuated in Belgorod Oblast)[35][36]

Ukrainian officials have said the goals of the operation include inflicting damage on Russia's military, capturing Russian troops, pushing Russian artillery further out of range, hindering Russian supply lines and diverting their forces from other fronts. It also aims to put pressure on the Russian government and force it into "fair" peace negotiations. By the end of August, the operation began to be criticized for diverting Ukrainian forces from the east, stretching Ukraine's personnel along the front and allowing Russia to advance toward Pokrovsk.[46][47] The city, alongside Kurakhove, was singled out by Ukrainian military commander Oleksandr Syrskyi as one direction from which the offensive had intended to divert Russian forces. The BBC noted that this goal seems to have failed, as Russian forces were instead bolstered on the Pokrovsk frontline.[48] The Institute for the Study of War reported that Russia moved forces from "lower-priority" areas (Kharkiv, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Kaliningrad), but not from Donetsk Oblast.[49] Additional criticisms also came from some of Ukraine's top military leaders including Valery Zaluzhny and Emil Ishkulov, according to Politico.[50]

The Kursk offensive surprised both Russia and Ukraine's allies.[41] It is the most significant attack across the border since the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine,[51] and the first carried out primarily by Ukrainian regular forces. Earlier smaller incursions into Russia by pro-Ukrainian forces had taken place with Ukraine supporting them but denying explicit involvement.[52]

Background

This paragraph is an excerpt from Attacks in Russia during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[edit]
There have been attacks in mainland Russia as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which began on 24 February 2022. The main targets have been the military, the arms industry and the oil industry. Many of the attacks have been drone strikes, firebombing, and rail sabotage. The Ukrainian intelligence services have acknowledged carrying out some of these attacks. Others have been carried out by anti-war activists in Russia. There have also been cross-border shelling, missile strikes, and covert raids from Ukraine, mainly in Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk oblasts. Several times, Ukrainian-based paramilitaries launched incursions into Russia, captured border villages and battled the Russian military. These were carried out by units made up mainly of Russian emigrants. While Ukraine supported these ground incursions, it denied direct involvement.

Russia's military chief Valery Gerasimov reportedly ignored intelligence warnings that Ukrainian troops were massing near the Russia–Ukraine border.[53] Bloomberg reported that Russian intelligence had warned of a possible invasion of the Kursk region two weeks in advance.[54] According to Bloomberg, citing "a person close to the Kremlin", Putin was not informed of the threat.[53]

All legal national borders of Russia are controlled by the FSB Border Guard under the command of FSB director Alexander Bortnikov. Most of the men guarding the border in Kursk Oblast were young, inexperienced conscripts, lightly equipped army infantry units, and the National Guard (Rosgvardiya).[55][56][57] Some of the conscripts were unarmed.[58]

Preparations

In an interview on 13 October 2024, Pavlo Rozlach, the commander of the Ukrainian 80th Air Assault Brigade, said that the unit had begun infiltrating into Kursk Oblast on 4 August with the help of the Special Operations Forces. Groups of six soldiers were deployed and were hidden in forests in preparation for the main assault on 6 August.[59]

Timeline

Ukrainian offensive

6 August

On 6 August 2024, Russia reportedly deployed air and artillery forces to counter a Ukrainian border incursion in Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian fighters, equipped with tanks and armored vehicles, crossed into Russian territory. The Russian Ministry of Defense responded by sending troops and aviation units to the area. According to Russia, the incursion involved around 300 Ukrainian troops, 11 tanks, and over 20 armored combat vehicles,[7] and was aimed in two directions: at Oleshnya in the direction of Sudzha, east-northeast of Sumy, and towards Nikolayevo-Darino, north-northeast of Sumy.[60] It was reported that Chechen Akhmat battalions were responding to the raids.[60]

The attack began at 08:00 MSK. A statement by Russian forces on Telegram at around 18:20, claiming that they had pushed the Ukrainians back across the border, and inflicted significant losses through artillery, air strikes, and drones, was later edited by them to imply fighting was ongoing. Moscow released videos purportedly showing Ukrainian tanks being targeted from the air. Social media footage suggested Russian warplanes operated at low altitudes over Kursk Oblast to repel the attack. Alexei Smirnov, acting governor of Kursk Oblast, reported that three people died during the events: a woman in the border incursion and two individuals in separate drone attacks.[61] Russian milbloggers also largely dismissed the supposed raids as "unsuccessful" and a "media stunt".[60]

Russian milbloggers claimed that the offensive was being performed by the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC), while the New Voice of Ukraine citing a source in Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence reported that the RVC was not present.[60] The RVC's ally, the Freedom of Russia Legion, which accompanied the RVC in a raid earlier in the year refused to comment if they were participating.[60]

 
Building damaged in Kursk Oblast, 6 August 2024

7 August

 
1943 Ukrainian railway map shows Sudzha in quadrant A2 at km 60 on the Lgov–Gotnya–Zolochiv main line to Kharkiv

Russian forces continued attempts to push back Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast. A milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces had captured 11 settlements and had advanced 14 kilometres (9 mi) deep into the oblast.[62] Government agencies were ordered by President Vladimir Putin to "provide the needed assistance to residents", and deputy prime minister Denis Manturov was sent to oversee their work.[63] Kursk Oblast was placed under a state of emergency by governor Smirnov.[64][65][66] Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova protested about "the criminal Kiev regime" and said that "all this only reinforces the sense of impunity of Ukrainian neo-Nazis."[67] Putin met with key members of the security establishment including Valery Gerasimov, Alexander Bortnikov, Sergei Shoigu and Andrey Belousov on the Kursk incursion.[68] Gerasimov told Putin that about 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers took part in the attack and that their advance in Kursk Oblast had been halted.[69]

Geolocated footage confirmed that Ukrainian forces had advanced at least 10 kilometres (6.2 mi) across the Russian border, having penetrated at least two Russian defensive lines and a stronghold. Russian sources indicated that Ukrainian forces were trying to advance along the 38K-030 Sudzha-Korenevo highway, and a prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that by 18:00 local time on 7 August, Ukrainian forces had advanced both northwest and southeast along the highway and were now fighting on the outskirts of Korenevo and Sudzha. Additionally, geolocated footage showed four Ukrainian personnel capturing at least 40 Russian POWs, as well as fighting within city limits of Sudzha, with Ukrainian forces capturing a gas-station and the entry check-point. The previous day, 35 Russian servicemen were claimed to have been captured by Ukrainian forces after failing to prevent a breakthrough. Meanwhile, a Ukrainian lieutenant, callsign "Alex", claimed that 300 Russian soldiers were captured in the "Kursk People's Republic" during two days, reportedly "conducted by a contingent of unidentified armed formations". He added that he hoped they would be handed over to his unit.[70][71]

Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko reported that Ukrainian forces had captured the Sudzha gas hub which feeds the Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhhorod pipeline into the rest of Europe. Additionally, there were reports of fighting in Ivnitsa [ru; uk], a village 24 km (15 mi) from the border.[72]

8 August

RIA Novosti reported that four people died as a result of 'attacks' by the AFU in the oblast[73] as fighting continued for the third day.[74][75] Russian milblogger Yuri Podolyaka said that "Sudzha is basically lost to us" and that Ukrainian forces were pushing towards Lgov.[76]

Ukrainian forces were in control of the western part of Sudzha and the surrounding roads; skirmishes continued in the town.[77]

According to Smirnov, the acting governor of Kursk Oblast, six Ukrainian drones and five missiles were shot down during the night and morning.[78]

 
Vladimir Putin talks with Alexei Smirnov, the acting governor of Kursk, about the situation regarding the Ukrainian incursion. 8 August 2024.

Reports claimed that the combat zone had expanded to 430 square kilometers, and claimed that Ukrainian forces entered the settlement of Mirny [ru; uk] and had taken control of the villages of Kazachya Loknya [ru; uk], Bogdanovka [ru; uk], 1st Knyazhiy [ru; uk] and 2nd Knyazhiy [ru; uk]. Skirmishes took place in the village of Snagost.[79] Ukrainian troops were present in areas 35 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.[80]

9 August

Reports claimed that Ukrainian troops had captured around 100[81]–200 square kilometers of territory, at a depth of around 10 kilometers on average.[82] Based on independent and own analyses, CNN put the area of territory over which Russia had lost control at 250 square kilometers at least.[83]

A convoy of Russian troops was reportedly destroyed in a HIMARS strike in the village of Oktyabrskoye while moving along the route connecting Glushkovsky District and Kursk and passing through Rylsky and Lgovsky districts. Footage of the aftermath showed 15 burned military trucks, with some bodies inside.[84] According to the Ukrainian analyst group NEXTA, "each of these trucks can carry up to 35 fully equipped soldiers. The video shows 14 destroyed vehicles, which suggests that the Russian army could have lost between 200 and 490 soldiers in one night as a result of the strike... This could become one of the largest one-time losses for the Russian army since the beginning of the full-scale war".[85][86][87][88] A Russian Telegram channel wrote: "They were armed, most likely a platoon per vehicle. 3-4 companies – an entire battalion was destroyed. Judging by the appearance of the column, about half were killed. This is one of the bloodiest and most massive strikes (most likely Himars) in the entire war."[89]

Apti Alaudinov, the commander of the Chechen Akhmat units that had been stationed in Belgorod and Kursk since the last incursion, informed Russian media that he and his forces did not engage Ukrainian troops as they passed their positions, instead opting to retreat until more Russian reinforcements could arrive, while some Russian milbloggers claimed they fled from the battle.[90][91][6] Alaudinov had at that point in time been the only Russian commander to admit that Ukrainian forces are in control of settlements along the border.[6]

In anticipation of Russian airstrikes, 20,000 people were ordered to evacuate from Sumy Oblast. Russian reinforcements, many of which were units already deployed around the Russia–Ukraine border,[92] continued to arrive near the frontline in Kursk Oblast, where fighting persisted over Sudzha.[93][94][92] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russia seized the border village of Lukashivka [uk] in Sumy Oblast, while Ukraine reportedly made a minor incursion in a new direction, directed at the border village of Kucherov, but did not capture it.[92]

The Russian MOD published a report on the transfer of a military column from Belgorod Oblast to Sudzhansky District, which included 152-mm self-propelled "Msta-S" artillery pieces and combat support vehicles.[95] Combat markings showed that Russian command was transferring battle-hardened troops to Kursk Oblast as reinforcement.[96]

The head of the Kurchatov municipal administration, Igor Korpunkov, reported that the fighting was taking place 30 kilometers from Kursk Nuclear Power Plant.[97][98] Authorities blocked all access to the nuclear plant, construction workers at the site left the area, and equipment at the plant was deenergized. Rosatom announced a temporary reduction in the number of personnel at the site. Around 15:00, an explosion was heard in Kurchatov. Russian NBC Protection Troops were also deployed to protect the plant.[99]

 
Distribution of humanitarian aid to residents of Kursk Oblast, 9 August 2024

Governor of Kursk Oblast Alexey Smirnov reported that a fire started in one of the districts as a result of an attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on a transformer substation. As a result of the UAV attack, Kurchatov, as well as parts of the Kurchatovsky, Oktyabrsky, Bolshesoldatsky, Oboyansky and Belovsky districts, were left without power supply.[100]

According to the spokesman of the Ukrainian Volunteer Army "South" Serhiy Bratchuk, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to seize the ammunition depots in Sudzha.[101][102]

By 9 August, Russian forces had retaken the village of Snagost, and in the north had pushed Ukraine back to the northern village of Malaya Loknya back from Ukraine's positions in Milyutino and Generalovka.[92] The number of Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast was estimated by CEIP senior fellow Dara Massicot to be around 10,000–12,000, containing elements from four to five Ukrainian brigades.[103]

A counter-terrorism operational regime under the FSB was introduced in Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod Oblasts to temporarily take control of the regions till the conditions return to normalcy.[104][105] This means in practice that "movement is restricted, vehicles can be seized, phone calls can be monitored, areas are declared no-go zones, checkpoints introduced, and security is beefed up at key infrastructure sites."[43] Alexander Bortnikov, director of the Federal Security Service, was placed at the head of these counter-terrorism operations.[5]

10 August

According to analysts cited by The New York Times, the Ukrainian advance in Kursk Oblast had largely been stopped by Russian reinforcements at this point, and the situation stabilized, but Ukrainian forces continued to hold on to their captured territory.[106] Conversely, other sources such as the Washington Post and Frankfurter Rundschau reported that Russia remained unable to control the situation, with continued Ukrainian advances.[107][108] The Russian Ministry of Defense made similar claims that they had stopped any Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast.[109]

Battles were reported in Olgovka near Korenevo, the Ivashkovskoye farmstead, and Malaya Loknya.[110]

The Russian Armed Forces claimed to have regained control of the village of Makhnovka east of Sudzha.[111] Reports claimed that the combat zone had expanded to 650 km2 (250 sq mi).[112]

In the evening, Kursk Oblast governor Smirnov said that 15 people were injured in Kursk city after the wreckage of an intercepted Ukrainian missile fell onto a residential area.[113]

11 August

In its morning report, the Russian Defense Ministry announced the destruction of four Tochka-U tactical missiles and 14 drones in the skies over Kursk Oblast overnight.[114]

On the night of 11 August, the Ukrainian Armed Forces entered Belovsky District, located southeast of Sudzhansky District, which was confirmed by the head of the district and the acting governor. The head of the district asked those who had evacuated not to return.[115]

Proekt claimed that the combat zone had increased to 720 km2 (280 sq mi).[116]

12 August

Russian authorities began evacuating civilians from Krasnoyaruzhsky District in Belgorod Oblast because of the widening Ukrainian offensive. Krasnoyaruzhsky is immediately south of Kursk Oblast, and also borders Ukraine.[117]

Russian authorities confirmed that Ukrainians had gained control of at least 28 settlements,[118] while Ukrainian OSINT claimed that Ukrainians had control of 44 settlements and were contesting another 10 settlements.[119][better source needed][120] The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi said that his forces control over 1,000 km2 (390 sq mi) of Russian territory.[121]

Ukrainian soldiers published a video of themselves driving through the center of Sudzha claiming that the city center was under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.[122]

13 August

According to reports that were not immediately confirmed but deemed credible by Western observers, Putin placed Alexey Dyumin in command of the defense against the Ukrainian offensive.[123][124]

Russia called for an immediate special meeting in the "Arria format" of the United Nations Security Council.[125][126] According to Ukraine a "relatively small" number of Russian troops were relocated to Kursk from Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, with the Russian offensives in the latter two regions continuing.[127] In his evening address, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that his forces were in control of roughly 1,000 square kilometres and 74 settlements inside Kursk Oblast.[128] In a meeting with Zelenskyy, Lithuanian minister of defense Laurynas Kasčiūnas claimed that Russia relocated some of its troops from its Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad to Kursk, without going into further details.[129]

The Russian defence ministry claimed to have thwarted Ukrainian assaults in Korenevsky District near the villages of Obshchy Kolodez, Kauchuk, Alekseyevsky, and Snagost and in Sudzhansky District in the direction of Martynovka, and also in the areas of Korenevo, Oleshnya, Nikolayevo-Daryino, Sudzha, and Mikhaylovka.[130]

14 August

Russia accused Ukraine of carrying out a massive air and drone attack on Kursk, Voronezh, Belgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, Volgograd, Bryansk, Oryol, and Rostov Oblasts, adding that it had shot down 117 drones and four missiles.[131]

Ukrainian state television aired a report claiming that Sudzha was under Ukrainian control and showing Ukrainian soldiers removing the Russian flag from an official building.[132] Ukrainian forces were also shown delivering humanitarian aid to civilians in the town.[133] However, Apti Alaudinov claimed that these events never happened without providing any evidence to the contrary.[134][135]

Ukraine claimed to have captured 100 Russian soldiers in less than 24 hours, reportedly from the 488th Guards Regiment and the "Akhmat" Battalions,[136][137] with Zelenskyy claiming the day before that "hundreds" had so far surrendered during the offensive.[138] According to the state security service of Ukraine, this was the largest single surrender of Russian troops so far.[139]

Ukraine reportedly attempted to advance in three directions: east from Sudzha toward the village of Belitsa and the neighboring settlement of Giri, north towards Lgov, and northwest towards Korenevo on the road to Rylsk. A fierce battle was reported near the settlement of Kauchuk, approximately 30 kilometers from Lgov. Russian forces dug new trenches south of Lgov and in Chermoshnoy. Ukrainian forces claimed to have advanced 1–2 kilometers and completed clearance of Sudzha.[140][141]

Cherkasskaya Konopelka, to the south of Sudzha, was reportedly captured by Ukraine, while the village of Kurilovka, the hamlet of Dmitryukov and the villages of Borki [ru] and Krupets were also reportedly occupied.[142] Ukrainian troops entered the village of Kamyshnoye where an urban battle was reported.[143] The town of Glushkovo was ordered evacuated by governor Smirnov,[144] with the evacuation of the entire surrounding Glushkovsky District of Kursk Oblast also begun that same day.[145]

The Ukrainian military claimed to have shot down an Su-34 aircraft over Kursk Oblast.[31]

15 August

Ukrainian military commander Oleksandr Syrskyi announced the establishment of a military administration to be headed by General Eduard Moskaliov, adding that 82 settlements in the oblast were now under Kyiv's control.[146] In his evening address, Zelenskyy said that Ukrainian forces had taken full control of Sudzha.[147]

The Russian MOD claimed to have recaptured the village of Krupets. It also confirmed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had advanced approximately two kilometers.[148][149]

Journalists from Italy's RAI network and Ukraine's Hromadske network visited the Sudzha area and interviewed local residents.[150][151][152]

Ukraine lost a HIMARS launcher in a missile strike in Sumy Oblast.[20]

16 August

It was reported that Russia was hiring trench diggers to build defences with wages of around US$2,500 a month with the promise of working outside combat zones. Satellite images showed the expansion of Russian trenchlines in the region.[153]

The major road bridge over the Seym River in Glushkovo was destroyed by the Ukrainian military, approximately 50 kilometers west of the Russian territory then controlled by Ukraine. The loss of the bridge could hinder the relocation via land routes of the ~20,000 civilians in the district.[154][155] Approximately 2,000 to 3,000 Russian conscripts were trapped in a pocket south of the river.[156]

17 August

Russian forces reportedly blew up two bridges near Tyotkino and Popovo-Lezhachi after withdrawing from the right bank of the Seym River in the area.[157]

The Ukrainian military claimed the capture of the settlement of Korenevo but the Russian MOD described the settlement as contested.[158]

18 August

 
Ukrainian soldiers with a captured Russian T-90M Proryv tank

Ukrainian forces destroyed another bridge over the Seym river near Zvannoye.[159][160][161]

According to Russian bloggers, both Ukraine and Russia reinforced their forces battling in Kursk Oblast, with Russia moving some forces from other fronts to the front.[162][better source needed]

Marines from the 501st Separate Naval Infantry Battalion posted a video of them tearing down the Russian flag from the municipal building of Apanasovka.[163]

19 August

Russia claimed that the Ukrainian military destroyed the third and last bridge over the Seym River in Korenevsky District leading to possible logistical strain on over 700 square kilometers of Russian territory.[164]

In his evening address, President Zelenskyy said that Ukrainian forces were in control of 92 settlements in Kursk Oblast and 1,250 square kilometers of Russian territory.[165]

20 August

The Russian interior ministry warned residents of Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts against using online dating websites and security cameras, citing concerns of information being gathered by Ukrainian forces.[166] Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, former head of Ingushetia and incumbent deputy head of the Ministry of Defense was appointed as Andrei Belousov's deputy in the Coordinating Council for the Security Issues of the Bordering Territories. Belousov reported that Yevkurov was already in Kursk Oblast that day.[4]

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed to have advanced towards the villages of Novoivanovka and Kul'baki. It also stated that Korenevo was being attacked from the south. The settlement on the Sudzha-Kursk-Martynovka road was also claimed to be controlled by Ukraine, who also claimed to have taken over Plekhovo in the south but stated that Borki, Kamyshnoye and Gir'i were under Russian control.[167][168]

21 August

Ukraine claimed to have destroyed several pontoon bridges used by Russian forces along the Seym River.[169]

The Russian Air Force carried out 17 airstrikes using 27 guided aerial bombs within Ukrainian-held Russian territory, and the Russian Army conducted artillery strikes on the Ukrainian border settlements of Porozok and Pozhnia.[170]

The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that its forces had repelled Ukrainian assaults from Komarovka, Korenevo, Malaya Loknya and Russkaya Konopelka and attacked Ukrainian soldiers near eight villages in Kursk Oblast and nine villages in Sumy Oblast.[170]

The Ukrainian 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade published a video which showed a group of more than 15 Russian soldiers taken prisoner.[171]

22 August

Ukrainian aviation published a video of a strike on a Russian "platoon strong point" with American made GBU-39 high–precision bombs. They claimed that a "UAV command post, an electronic warfare unit, equipment, weaponry" and up to 40 Russian personnel were hit.[172]

23 August

Russian soldiers barricaded themselves in Women Prison No. 11 in the village of Malaya Loknya, effectively turning the building into a "fortress", using watchtowers as firing positions, making trenches amongst other defenses. Prison guards were also involved with the Russian troops in the defense of the facility, which was known to have a carrying capacity of 200 female prisoners. Ukrainian troops besieged the facility and attacked it.[173][174][175]

24 August

Russian milbloggers claimed that Borki had been recaptured by Russia.[176][177]

25 August

In his evening address, President Zelenskyy claimed that Ukrainian forces had advanced by one to three kilometres, resulting in the capture of two more unspecified settlements, with active operations going on in another one.[178][179]

29 August

Russian forces fully retook Korenevo.[180]

30 August

Ukrainian military commander Oleksandr Syrskyi said that his forces had advanced up to 2 km (1.2 mi) in some areas and seized control of 5 km2 (1.9 sq mi) of Russian territory.[181]

100 members of the Bear Brigade, a Russian PMC, said that they would deploy from Burkina Faso to Kursk Oblast to fight Ukrainian forces.[182][183]

5 September

President Zelenskyy claimed that 60,000 Russian troops had been redeployed from Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts to Kursk Oblast and that the number of Russian shells fired in the former areas had been reduced.[184]

7 September

In Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian forces claimed to have destroyed two pontoon bridges over the Seym River and an Osa air defence system using SDB bombs and HIMARS rockets.[185]

Russian counterattack

10 September

After the Ukrainian incursion on 6 August, Putin had reportedly ordered his military to recapture the occupied area of Kursk Oblast by 1 October.[186] The Russian army reportedly launched a counteroffensive operation in Kursk Oblast on 10 September, with reports of Russian advances in Korenevsky District. Apti Alaudinov also claimed that Russian forces entered Snagost.[187] It was claimed that Russian forces captured the settlements of Gordeyevka and Vnezapnoye.[188]

11 September

Russian counteroffensive operations in Korenevsky District of Kursk Oblast reportedly continued, with some Russian sources saying that as much as 165 square kilometers had been retaken, and Alaudinov saying that "about 10 settlements" had been recaptured. These operations came amidst a Ukrainian redeployment of troops from Kursk Oblast to the fighting near Pokrovsk, which according to a Ukrainian milblogger gave Russian forces the upper hand in Kursk.[189][190][191] One of the objectives of the counteroffensive reportedly was to free up the isolated Russian troops between the Seym river and Ukraine.[192]

Another Russian platoon attempting to cross a pontoon bridge on the Seym River was bombarded using HIMARS rockets.[193]

12 September

The Russian defense ministry reiterated Alaudinov's statements of 10 settlements having been retaken, and specified that these were Apanasovka, Byakhovo, Vishnevka, Viktorovka, Vnezapnoye, Gordeevka, Krasnooktyabrsky, Obukhovka, Snagost, and 10-y Oktyabr. Geolocated footage confirmed a Russian advance of 58 square kilometers, including into Snagost and Krasnooktyabrsky, but not any village captures. The Institute for the Study of War assessed that these Russian advances were in areas where Ukraine did not have full control. Ukraine simultaneously expanded operations outside of their main salient in Kursk Oblast, attacking southwest of Glushkovo near Novy Put and making advances.[194]

13 September

Ukrainian forces made further confirmed gains southwest of Glushkovo, advancing three kilometers from the border with Russia south of Vesyoloye. The Russian capture of Snagost was visually confirmed, while Russian sources claimed further advances through Ukraine's Kursk salient.[195]

16 September

Russian authorities ordered the evacuation of settlements in the Rylsky and Khomutovsky Districts of Kursk Oblast that lay within 15 kilometres of the Ukrainian border.[196]

The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have retaken the villages of Borki and Uspenovka.[197]

18 September

The Ukrainian military administration of Kursk Oblast claimed that the Russian counterattack had been halted. However, others suggested the counterattack had yet to reach full momentum.[198][199] Apti Alaudinov stated that Russia had regained control over the settlements of Nikolayevo-Darino and Darino in the Sudzhansky District.[200]

24 September

Alaudinov said that his forces had retaken 12 settlements in Kursk Oblast since the start of the Russian counterattack; 11 of these were visually confirmed to have been recaptured by Russian forces.[201]

9 October

The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces had regained control over Pokrovsky and Novaya Sorochina in the Sudzhansky District.[202]

10 October

Russian forces began a major step up in their counteroffensive in Kursk Oblast.[203] There were reports of a desolated assailant of Ukrainian troops in Glushkovsky district following a strategic encirclement.[204]

DeepStateMap.Live reported that nine Ukrainian "drone operators and contractors" were shot after surrendering to Russian forces.[205]

11 October

Russian Forces advanced towards the villages of Veseloye and north of Lyubimovka.[204][better source needed]

14 October

Apti Alaudinov claimed that Russia had recaptured around 50% of the territory occupied by Ukraine.[206]

Belgorod Oblast

On 9 August, Russian authorities said that one person was killed in an aerial attack on the border town of Shebekino which also injured two people and damaged nine apartment buildings, 18 houses and 10 vehicles.[207] On the morning of 10 August, Ukraine launched a minor incursion into the oblast, with Z-publics, as well as Ukrainian military Telegram channels, reporting that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had managed to take control of the village of Poroz.[208][107]

On 14 August, a state of emergency was declared in the oblast by governor Vyacheslav Gladkov.[209] By 14 August, the Ukrainian offensive had penetrated 10 kilometres (6 mi) into the oblast and had captured multiple positions, but a fierce Russian response led to heavy Ukrainian casualties and a subsequent retreat from the captured territory by 15 August.[210]

On 16 August, footage emerged of a Russian marine showing off the severed head of a Ukrainian soldier, near the Kolotilovka checkpoint. The footage appeared to have been taken on 12 August after an unsuccessful attempt by the Ukrainians to breach the Russian lines.[211]

On 27 August, reports emerged of Ukrainian forces launching an incursion into Belgorod Oblast, which was acknowledged by Gladkov, who said that "the enemy is trying to break through the border" but that the situation was under control.[212]

Reactions

Russia

The Russian Ministry of Defence initially claimed on 6 August that the attack had been repelled. The ministry stated, "After suffering losses, the Ukrainian sabotage group retreated to its territory, while some of the fighters attempted to establish a position on the territory adjacent to the state border, where they were blocked by Russian army units."[213][214] President Vladimir Putin described the AFU's offensive into Kursk Oblast as a "large-scale provocation." He accused the "Kyiv regime" of "indiscriminately firing various types of weapons, including missiles, at civilian buildings, houses, and ambulances." Putin stated that he plans to meet with the heads of the security agencies, the Defense Ministry, and the Federal Security Service (FSB).[62][17]

State Duma deputy and retired major general Andrey Gurulyov criticized the Russian army for failing to defend Kursk Oblast.[215] On 8 August, Gurulyov said in a television interview that the Russian military knew about the planned Ukrainian invasion of Kursk a month before it happened but "from the top came the order not to panic, and that those above know better."[216]

Pro-Kremlin political analyst Sergei Markov told The Washington Post that "the signal came from intelligence to the leadership, but ... measures were not taken. This is a failure of the entire system of intelligence, and since Putin is responsible for this, then it's clear this is a blow to Putin."[217] Markov said that "Putin has said many times that any peace agreement should take into account the facts on the ground and that Russia will not leave the territory it has taken" and Ukraine is trying "to break this formula and gain Russian territory to exchange."[218]

Former President and deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, issued a statement that the incursion made it so "This [war] is no longer just an operation to retake our official territories and punish the Nazis. It is possible and necessary to go to the lands of the still existing Ukraine. To Odesa, to Kharkiv, to Dnipropetrovsk, to Mykolaiv. To Kyiv and beyond," and that "The current military campaign will also end in Russia's unconditional victory."[72]

After a HIMARS strike reportedly destroyed a Russian battalion on the night of 8–9 August, numerous Russian milbloggers responded with outrage. Many of them called for the commanders who authorized the movement of the column to be punished, such as Russian military analyst Roman Alekhine wrote that "we need executions". Meanwhile, "The Two Majors" blog wrote that "whoever gave the order to move in columns in the area... should be sentenced under the laws of war". The channel "Thirteenth", which has ties to the Wagner Group, called those responsible "brainless creatures". "In the third year of the war, even a monkey could be trained, but not some [Russian] Ministry of Defense staff general who gave the orders for such a suicidal march in the frontline zone".[219]

On 11 August, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated "The Kyiv regime is continuing its terrorist activity with the sole purpose of intimidating the peaceful population of Russia" and that the incursion "makes no sense from a military point of view."[220]

 
Distribution of humanitarian aid to residents of Kursk Oblast, 18 August 2024

FSB chief Alexander Bortnikov called the Ukrainian offensive "a terrorist attack" and accused Ukraine of attacking civilians and civilian infrastructure "with the support of the collective West."[221][better source needed]

On 16 August, Putin's aide Nikolai Patrushev claimed, without providing evidence, that the invasion of Kursk Oblast was "planned with the participation of NATO and Western special services",[222] calling the offensive "a desperate act, driven by the impending collapse of the neo-Nazi regime in Kyiv."[223][better source needed]

Putin was reported to have ordered his generals to push back Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast by 1 October.[156]

On 28 August, restrictions were imposed on travel to Kurchatov, where the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant is located. Only residents of the town were allowed to freely enter, while non-resident employees were required to obtain an entry permit issued by local authorities or from the power plant in the case of its workers.[224]

Charges against foreign journalists

On 16 August, Russia summoned Italian ambassador Cecilia Piccioni to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Moscow due to journalists from the Italian public broadcaster RAI reporting in the Ukrainian occupied parts of Kursk Oblast the previous day. The ministry accused the journalists of entering Russia illegally to report about a "criminal terrorist attack committed by Ukrainian soldiers".[225] On 17 August, the FSB filed a criminal case against journalists Simone Traini and Stefania Battistini for unauthorized entry into Kursk Oblast.[226] On 20 August, the U.S. Embassy's Chief of Mission Stephanie Holmes was summoned by the foreign ministry over reportage by CNN journalists in occupied Kursk Oblast.[227] On 22 August, the FSB also filed charges against CNN reporter Nick Paton Walsh and Ukrainian journalists Olesia Borovyk and Diana Butsko for illegal entry into Russia.[228] On 27 August, the FSB filed similar charges against Deutsche Welle correspondent Nick Connolly and Nataliya Nahorna, a reporter for Ukrainian television channel 1+1.[229]

On 27 September, the FSB charged Australian Broadcasting Corporation reporters Kathryn Diss and Fletcher Yeung with illegal entry into Russia, along with Romanian HotNews journalist Mircea Barba.[230] On 7 October, the FSB launched investigations against France 24 correspondent Catherine Norris Trent and Swiss journalist Kurt Pelda from CH Media. In response, France 24 said that its reportage inside occupied Kursk Oblast was protected activity in accordance with the rights afforded to journalists under the Geneva Convention and international law.[231]

Ukraine

On the first day of the incursion, the head of Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation, Andriy Kovalenko, refuted Russian claims that the situation at the border was under control, replying "Russia does not control the border".[232] President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak, acknowledged the incursion on 8 August, but not Ukraine's role. Podolyak said it was an opportunity to see how ordinary Russians feel about their government, but said it is unlikely they would "come out with flowers to greet the anti-Putin tanks".[233] Podolyak said Ukraine had no interest in occupying Kursk, but that it had to force Russia into fair negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.[234]

President Zelenskyy first acknowledged that Ukraine's forces were involved during his evening address on 10 August. He said "Ukraine is proving that it can indeed restore justice and is ensuring the exact kind of pressure that is needed – pressure on the aggressor".[235] On 12 August, Zelenskyy said that "Russia must be forced to make peace", adding "Russia brought war to others, now it's coming home". He maintained that the operation was a matter of security for Ukraine and that its troops captured areas from which Russia had launched numerous strikes.[236] According to Zelenskyy and other officials, the capture of hundreds of Russian soldiers was replenishing Ukraine's "exchange fund" for prisoner swaps.[237] On 19 August, Zelenskyy said that he did not disclose preparations for the incursion to Kyiv's allies, because they might deem it to cross Russia's "strictest of all red lines".[238] Zelenskyy later said that one of the goals of Ukraine's incursion was to show Russians "what is more important to him [Putin]: the occupation of the territories of Ukraine or the protection of his population."[239]

Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesman Georgiy Tykhy said that "unlike Russia", Ukraine is not interested in taking the territory of its neighbor. He said "the purpose of the operation is to save the lives of our people and protect the territory of Ukraine from Russian strikes", as well as to hinder Russia's movement of troops to the Donbas. Tykhy added: "The sooner Russia agrees to restore a just peace ... the sooner the raids by the Ukrainian defense forces into Russia will stop".[240][241]

On 14 August, Zelenskyy said that the creation of civil administrative bodies in Kursk Oblast should not be ruled out. Deputy prime minister Iryna Vereshchuk said that the Ukrainian military was creating a "security zone" on Russian territory to protect Ukrainian border areas. She said that Ukraine would be conducting humanitarian operations in the area, that international humanitarian organizations would be allowed to enter, and that safe corridors would be opened for civilians to evacuate toward Ukraine or to other parts of Russia.[242]

On 7 September, Kyrylo Budanov noted that the offensive into Kursk has impacted and "complicated" Russian plans for an offensive in Winter 2024–2025.[243]

On 13 September, Zelenskyy acknowledged the Russian counter-attack but claimed there had been "no serious (Russian) success", adding that "It gave the results that, frankly speaking, we counted on" and reiterated claims that it had adversely affected Russian operations in Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts.[244][245][246]

On 16 September, the Ukrainian government invited the United Nations and the International Committee of the Red Cross to inspect areas of Kursk Oblast that were under its control.[247]

United States

The White House said that it was seeking an understanding from Ukraine regarding the incursion, adding that it had no advance knowledge of the attack.[248] On 8 August, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh stated that the incursion is consistent with the US policy on the use of weapons.[249] On 12 August, US National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby called on Putin to withdraw his forces from Ukraine if he "doesn't like" the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast.[250] On 13 August, President Joe Biden said that the Ukrainian incursion was "creating a real dilemma" for Putin.[251]

Germany

In response to the Kursk offensive, the German Foreign Ministry stated on 9 August that weapons transferred from Germany to Ukraine become the property of Ukraine and can be used by its armed forces as they deem necessary and correct. The German Foreign Ministry further stated that Ukraine's right to self-defense is enshrined in international law and not limited to its own territory.[249][252]

Chair of the Bundestag's Defence Committee Marcus Faber told German media in the first few days of the incursion that Ukraine was free to use "all materials" provided, including Leopard 2 deliveries.[249] He tweeted on 11 August claiming that the incursion forced Russia to move forces from the front in the east, reducing the pressure there and that this provided an occasion to discuss further Leopard 2 deliveries.[253]

China

China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said all parties should "observe the three principles for deescalating the situation, namely no expansion of the battlefield, no escalation of fighting and no fueling the flame by any party", added that Beijing will continue to maintain contact with the international community and play a constructive role in promoting a political settlement of the "Ukrainian crisis".[254]

Belarus

On 15 August, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko urged both Russia and Ukraine to start negotiations to end the war. He accused the West of supporting the incursion into Kursk Oblast in order to encourage new mobilization and destabilize the situation in Russia and Belarus.[255]

On 18 August, Lukashenko said that Ukraine had massed 120,000 troops near the border with Belarus, and that he had ordered a third of the Belarusian army to be deployed near the border with Ukraine.[256]

Estonia

On 13 September, the commander of the Estonian Defence Forces Intelligence Centre, Colonel Ants Kiviselg, said that while Russia had redeployed some forces "Russia's offensive activity in the Donetsk direction has not decreased much." He cited a decline from 185 attacks per day down to 110 attacks per day. Russia had responded by moving forces from Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts instead of Donetsk or Kharkiv. Kiviselg did acknowledge that the Russian counter-attack had "not made significant progress" and had suffered losses. However this could simply be a probing attack and not the main offensive.[257]

Syria

On 10 August, a statement by the Syrian Foreign Ministry said the country was following "with great concern" the incursion, which it described as a "terrorist attack".[258]

Organisations

The Council of the Free Russia Forum welcomed the transfer of hostilities to Russian territory, expressing condolences to the families and friends of civilians killed in the attack on Kursk Oblast.[259]

Following reports on 10 August of fighting near the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, called on Russia and Ukraine to exercise "maximum restraint" to avoid a nuclear accident.[260] On 27 August, Grossi visited the facility, during which he said that "the danger or possibility of a nuclear accident has emerged" nearby.[261]

The Anti-War Committee of Russia, a group formed by Russians in exile, issued a statement criticizing Putin. It said "the absence of any significant military units of the Russian Federation on the border at the time of the attack and the simultaneous continuous conduct of aggressive military operations for more than 900 days on the territory of sovereign Ukraine is the best proof that Putin is lying again about 'protecting Russia.' He doesn't care about Russia, he is only protecting himself."[58]

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg called the Ukrainian incursion "legitimate" and within Kyiv's right to self-defense, adding that the bloc did not receive prior information about the operation and did not play a role in it.[262]

Analysis

The BBC reported that the August 2024 offensive was the first incidence since World War II that Russian territory had been occupied by foreign forces (although other sources state that foreign jihadists occupied some Russian territory during the War in Dagestan).[263][264] The incursion has been dubbed the "second battle of Kursk", in allusion to the 1943 battle in the same region.[265][266] The offensive is also larger than earlier ground raids, with at least two brigades from the regular Ukrainian forces participating. These forces are mechanized, highly mobile and protected by significant air defense. The offensive appears to have taken Russia by surprise. The Institute for the Study of War reports that, according to Russian sources the Ukrainians use "novel and innovative tactics" and that small armored units bypass Russian defenses, strike in the rear and then withdraw.[80]

The Ukrainian surprise offensive in the Russian border region of Kursk suggests an attempt to shift the momentum against Russia. A significant challenge for Ukraine has been responding to Russia's strategy of expanding the front line, particularly with intensified fighting around Kharkiv. According to Rob Lee, a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute's Eurasia program, this offensive has further stretched Ukraine's forces, reducing their reserves to counter Russian advances towards Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Toretsk.[267] On 10 August, Ukraine said it had recorded the lowest number of "combat engagements" on its territory since 10 June, which some observers considered as a sign that the offensive had brought relief to Ukrainian forces.[98] However, the Russian advance in Donbas had been accelerated by late August, reportedly making the Ukrainian offensive a more long-term project.[268][269]

Retired Major General Mick Ryan sees several possible objectives for the incursion. On the tactical level, seizing ground and destroying Russian forces. On an operation level, to draw Russian forces away from Donetsk and in general to force Russia to reconsider their disposition of forces. Other objectives may be more related to the terrain itself, like the Kursk nuclear plant and key roads and railroads. Finally, on the strategic level, to slow Russia's offensive momentum, to shift the narrative and counter Russian talking points about ther inevitable victory, and also to boost Ukrainan morale.[270]

Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said that the Ukrainian incursion into Russia was "the first on this scale with conventional forces, rather than proxies [or] 'resistance' groups." He also assessed that earlier raids into Kursk and Belgorod were designed to probe for Russian weak spots, and that the overall goal of the raid is to dismantle Russia's ability to funnel more troops into the Kharkiv front and that "It's unlikely that the plan is to seriously take Kursk itself, or to try and hold vast swathes of Russian territory."[72] BBC journalists noted the overall decrease of Russian attacks on the Ukrainian frontline at around 15–17% after the beginning of Kursk raids, which could be the sign of Russia taking forces from the frontline into Kursk Oblast.[271]

Nico Lange, former chief of staff at the German Federal Ministry of Defence, stated that the incursion was likely "to establish a negotiating position and provide relief on other front lines" and that it is unlikely that Ukrainian forces would hold territory in Kursk for long periods of time.[72]

Retired Polish General and former commander of special forces, Roman Polko, stated that "It's good that Ukraine is taking actions that surprise the Russians," and that "Ukraine is in a defensive position and is unable to conduct an operation to push Russia from the occupied regions, but Ukraine is defending itself in an active way," and that "One can't allow the Russians to comfortably prepare new attacks."[72]

Political analyst Andreas Umland suggested that the offensive could bring a quicker end to the war. He notes that Ukraine's allies had severely restricted the kinds of weapons sent to Ukraine and their permitted range, fearful of crossing the Kremlin's "red lines" and sparking World War III. One of those red lines was "taking the war to Russia with Western weapons". Umland concludes: "Part of the effect and purpose of the Kursk operation could be to demonstrate, once again, the fallacy of the red-line argument". He added that if Ukrainian forces could hold Russian territory "it could strengthen Ukraine's leverage in any potential negotiations".[272] Likewise, Peter Dickinson of the Atlantic Council said the offensive "succeeded in making a complete mockery of Vladimir Putin's red lines". Dickinson wrote that the West "spent more than two years slow-walking military aid to Ukraine for fear of provoking Putin", but he maintained that "Putin's characteristically weak response to the Kursk offensive" showed there were "no more excuses for restricting Kyiv's ability to defend itself" and that "the quickest way to end the war is by arming Ukraine for victory".[273] The International Institute for Strategic Studies said that the operation bears high risks and high stakes for both sides.[274]

Nevertheless, two weeks onward, despite the initial surprise, analysts began to question the motives and goals of the incursion.[275][276] By the third week of the incursion, it was apparent that the incursion was slowing down whilst the main front in the Donbas was becoming critical. According to the deputy commander of the Third Separate Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Maksym Zhorin, one of the main goals of the incursion was to draw Russian forces away from Donbas into Kursk, in order to relieve pressure on the Eastern Front. However, this apparent bait failed. According to Michael Kofman, the transfer of manpower and resources from Donbas to Kursk has now put the strategic and critical city of Pokrovsk in range of Russian artillery, whilst Russia has gained ground in important Ukrainian towns such as Niu-York and Toretsk.[275][277] If Ukraine loses Pokrovsk when it is already struggling to maintain its hold on Kursk, Kofman concludes the incursion to be strategically disastrous as the loss of the city will have profound downstream effects for the overall organization of defense across Donetsk.[275] Kofman's criticism of Ukraine's incursion into Kursk was shared by other analysts. Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military analyst at the Kyiv-based Information Resistance group, described the situation in Pokrovsk to be a complete defensive failure.[47] Roman Pohorilyi of Deep State said that the situation in the east is in complete chaos.[47] Rob Lee from the Foreign Policy Research Institute explained a similar critique that the shifting of experienced personnel and resources from the east to Kursk has resulted in a degradation of defences due to the presence of less experienced troops.[47] Stanislav Aseyev, a Ukrainian journalist and soldier on the eastern front warned that the destruction of the entire southern group of forces would affect the entire eastern region, not just Pokrovsk.[47] Likewise, Ukrainian MPs such as Maryana Bezuhla warned that the frontline near Novohrodivka was wide open with empty trenches.[47] On 2 October 2024, nearly two months since the incursion, it was widely agreed that the operation in Kursk had a direct relation with the degradation of Ukraine's eastern front.[46] Ukraine sufferred its steepest loss in territory between mid-August to mid-September, which also coincided with Ukraine's incursion into Kursk according to Pasi Paroinen, analyst of the Black Bird Group.[46] Rob Lee further supported his earlier argument, stressing that Kursk had stretched Ukrainian personnel thin, added pressure on units holding the line and exacerbated the manpower issues in Ukraine, which is further made worse with heavy losses of experienced Ukrainian soldiers, coupled with new troops sped to the front with limited training.[46]

While Russian forces did not slow down in the Pokrovsk sector, they did, however, draw several brigades away from the Kherson, Bakhmut, Vovchansk and Kreminna sectors.[278] According to the Commander of the Lithuanian Land Forces Raimundas Vaikšnoras, Russia was also forced to withdraw some ground forces it had previously deployed in the Kaliningrad Oblast exclave.[279] On 24 August, Zelenskyy said that the incursion halted Russia's plans to launch an offensive from the north, the goal of which was to capture Sumy.[280]

Impact

The attack reportedly pushed up natural gas prices 5% to €40 per megawatt-hour in Europe,[281] while YouTube and phone networks experienced outages in Russia.[282][283][284] The transit of Russian gas through the Ukrainian gas transportation system decreased to 37.25 million cubic metres per day from the usual 42–42.4 million cubic metres.[285] Sudzha is home to the Soviet-era Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhhorod pipeline, which continues to transport Russian natural gas from Western Siberia through Ukraine to Europe.[286][287] Agricultural damage due to the conflict in Kursk Oblast was estimated to be at 85 billion rubles ($932.6 million).[288]

Nearly 200,000 civilians in Russia were displaced by the fighting.[289] Some of the displaced were to be moved to Russian-occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast in southern Ukraine.[290] Some Russian civilians in the territory under Ukrainian occupation have complained that they have been abandoned by the Russian government.[291] On 8 August, Putin pledged that the government would provide financial assistance of 10,000 rubles ($100) to those displaced by the fighting. By early September, around 87,600 residents had received financial aid totaling 1.3 billion rubles ($14.3 million).[292]

Although President Putin repeatedly promised that young conscripts would not be deployed in the war with Ukraine, conscripts from several Russian regions were sent to fight with Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast.[293] Many conscripts fell into Ukrainian captivity.[294] An online petition by mothers of conscripts pleading with Putin to withdraw conscripts from combat received nearly 10,000 signatures.[295]

According to the Russian independent server Astra, hundreds of Russian men who refused to fight in Ukraine for health or conscience reasons were transported from a military facility near St. Petersburg to the area around Kursk.[296][297] Relatives of the soldiers expressed fears that the "refuseniks" would be used in human wave attacks.[298]

On 17 August, The Washington Post reported, citing anonymous diplomatic sources, that Ukraine's incursion into Russia disrupted plans for indirect talks in Qatar to halt mutual strikes on energy infrastructure in Ukraine and Russia. Both Ukraine and Russia had planned to send their delegations to indirect talks mediated by Qatari officials, but Russian officials postponed the meeting in the wake of Ukraine's incursion. Some officials hoped it could be the first step toward a more comprehensive peace deal.[218] Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said that there were "no direct or indirect negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on the safety of civilian critical infrastructure facilities" and that after the assault on Kursk Oblast, Putin ruled out the possibility of such talks.[299][300] A Russian academic with close ties to senior Russian diplomats said that Putin probably lost interest in further talks in Qatar because the "Russian leadership usually does not make any compromises under pressure" and attacks on energy infrastructure are highly effective tactics that do more damage to Ukraine than to Russia, adding that Russia is more interested in talks with Ukraine about a broader ceasefire.[218]

The incursion led the Russian Central Election Commission to postpone voting for the 2024 Russian elections in seven municipalities located in occupied areas of Kursk Oblast that were originally scheduled for 6–8 September.[301] In Belgorod Oblast, authorities ordered the start of classes in September to be held online in areas within 20 kilometers of the Ukrainian border.[302]

According to BBC journalists, Russian soldiers in territories of Kursk Oblast near the front engaged in looting.[303]

Advanced Russian suspicion of incursion plans

On 20 September, The Guardian revealed that based on documents captured by Ukrainian forces, Russia suspected a Ukrainian attack on Kursk months before the incursion started, and was concerned about its effect on troop morale. The Guardian was unable to verify the authenticity of the documents, but stated that they appeared to be genuine.[304]

Casualties

Russia claimed that six Ukrainian tanks and ten armored vehicles were lost in the initial engagement on 6 August.[7][305][306] Acting governor of Kursk Oblast, Alexei Smirnov, claimed that 26 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down in the area.[23] Russia later claimed on 9 August, that Ukraine had losses of 945 soldiers and 102 armored vehicles, although this could not be verified.[84] Ukraine claimed their forces had shot down an Mi-28 and two Ka-52[24][25] helicopters.[30]

On 9 August 2024, HIMARS destroyed a convoy of Russian troops in Kursk Oblast in what Russian milbloggers described as one of the bloodiest attacks of the entire war.[89][307]

On 12 August, Ukrainian military expert Mykhailo Zhirokhov claimed that the ratio of Ukrainian to Russian manpower losses as "closer to 1 to 10", and the number of Russian POWs taken as "thousands".[308] Since most of the best Russian troops were deployed in Ukraine, most of the Russian soldiers protecting the Russian border in the Kursk region were young, inexperienced conscripts who suffered heavy losses in combat with experienced Ukrainian troops.[293][58]

On 19 August, the Ukrainian resistance group Atesh claimed that a battalion from the 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade had suffered heavy losses and had only 30% of its combat personnel left.[309] According to a Western official, about 1,000 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded daily in the fighting in Kursk and Donbas.[310]

Russian officials reported that at least 56 civilians had been killed since the start of the incursion, while at least 266 others, including 11 children, had been injured.[34] The Russian state broadcaster Russia-24 announced that one of its reporters, Evgeniy Poddubny, had been injured in a drone attack on his vehicle while reporting on the fighting in the affected areas on 7 August.[311] On 16 August, the All-Russia People's Front said that one of its medical staff and a media coordinator had been killed after their vehicle was shelled while assisting in evacuation efforts.[312] At least 770 residents of Kursk Oblast went missing following the incursion.[34] Around 20,000 civilians are believed to be living under Ukrainian occupation in the oblast.[313] In October 2024, Russian human rights commissioner Tatyana Moskalkova accused Ukraine of forcibly taking more than 1,000 residents of Kursk Oblast.[314]

On 25 October 2024, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi said Russian soldiers had suffered 17,819 casualties since 8 August 2024, of which 6,662 had been killed, 10,446 wounded and 711 captured.[315]

Order of battle

Russian forces

Ukrainian forces

See also

Notes

  1. ^ A Ukrainian source claimed that the 80th Air Assault Brigade crossed into Kursk Oblast two days before Ukraine started its offensive[1]
  2. ^ Separate incursions have also taken place in Belgorod Oblast

References

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