2010 Arizona gubernatorial election

2010 Arizona gubernatorial election
Turnout	55.65% 4.82pp
	Brewer: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Goddard: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes
Governor before election; Jan Brewer; Republican	Elected Governor ; Jan Brewer; Republican

The 2010 Arizona gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010, to elect the Governor of Arizona. Incumbent Republican Jan Brewer ran for a full term. Party primaries were held on August 24, 2010. Jan Brewer won a full term, defeating Arizona Attorney General and Democratic nominee Terry Goddard 54% to 42%.

Background

Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano was term limited and nominated to become Secretary of Homeland Security by President-elect Barack Obama, and was confirmed by the United States Senate on January 20, 2009, resigning as governor the same day.^[2] Since Arizona does not have a lieutenant governor, Republican Secretary of State Jan Brewer was first in the state's gubernatorial line of succession and was sworn in as governor upon Napolitano's resignation. Brewer announced on November 5, 2009, that she would seek a full term in 2010.^[3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Terry Goddard, State Attorney General,^[4] former mayor of Phoenix, nominee for governor in 1990, and candidate in 1994

Declined

Neil Giuliano, former mayor of Tempe
Phil Gordon, Mayor of Phoenix

Republican primary

The primary to select the 2010 Republican nominee for governor of Arizona was held on August 24, 2010.^[5]^[6]

Candidates

Declared

Jan Brewer, incumbent governor

Withdrew

Dean Martin, Arizona State Treasurer (dropped out on July 9, 2010, and endorsed Brewer)^[7]
Owen Mills, member of the National Rifle Association of America Board of Directors (dropped out on July 13, 2010)^[8]

Declined

Joe Arpaio, Maricopa County Sheriff^[9]
J.D. Hayworth, former U.S. Representative
John Munger, former chair of the Arizona Republican Party^[10]
Vernon Parker, Mayor of Paradise Valley (ran for Congress)
Fife Symington, former governor of Arizona^[11]

Polling

Poll source	Dates administered	Jan Brewer (inc.)	Dean Martin*	Buz Mills*
Rasmussen Reports^[12]	June 16, 2010	72%	12%	16%
Rasmussen Reports^[13]	May 17, 2010	45%	18%	18%
Public Policy Polling^[14]	April 23–25, 2010	25%	15%	11%
Public Policy Polling^[14]	April 23–25, 2010	58%	16%	19%
Rasmussen Reports^[15]	April 13, 2010	26%	12%	18%
Rasmussen Reports^[15]	March 15, 2010	20%	21%	19%
Rasmussen Reports^[16]	January 20, 2010	29%	27%	—
Rasmussen Reports^[17]	November 18, 2009	10%	22%	—
Public Policy Polling^[18]	September 21, 2009	39%	26%	—

^{* Dropped out of race after entering to seek the nomination}

Results

Results by county:

Brewer—80–90%

Brewer—70–80%

Republican primary results^[6]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Jan Brewer (Incumbent)	479,153	81.53
	Republican	Buz Mills*	51,001	8.68
	Republican	Dean Martin*	36,012	6.13
	Republican	Matthew Jette	19,611	3.34
	Republican	Write-in	1,906	0.32
Total votes			587,683	100

^{* Dropped out prior to primary, but still appeared on ballot}

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Ronald Cavanaugh
Barry Hess
Bruce Olsen
Alvin Ray Yount

Results

Libertarian primary results^[6]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Libertarian	Barry Hess	1,303	43.38
	Libertarian	Bruce Olsen	612	20.37
	Libertarian	Ronald Cavanaugh	547	18.21
	Libertarian	Write-in	299	9.95
	Libertarian	Alvin Ray Yount	243	8.09
Total votes			3,004	100

General election

Candidates

Jan Brewer (R), incumbent governor
Terry Goddard (D), attorney general
Barry Hess (L)
Larry Gist (G)

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report^[19]	Likely R	October 14, 2010
Rothenberg^[20]	Lean R	October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics^[21]	Lean R	November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[22]	Likely R	October 28, 2010
CQ Politics^[23]	Lean R	October 28, 2010

Polling

Poll source	Dates administered	Terry Goddard (D)	Jan Brewer (R)
Rasmussen Reports^[24]	October 28, 2010	39%	53%
Public Policy Polling^[25]	October 23–24, 2010	44%	52%
BRC Polls^[26]	October 11, 2010	35%	38%
Rasmussen Reports^[24]	October 3, 2010	39%	55%
Rasmussen Reports^[27]	September 7, 2010	38%	60%
Rasmussen Reports^[28]	August 25, 2010	38%	57%
Rasmussen Reports^[29]	July 21, 2010	37%	56%
Rasmussen Reports^[30]	June 29, 2010	35%	53%
Rasmussen Reports^[31]	May 17, 2010	39%	52%
Rasmussen Reports^[32]	April 27, 2010	40%	48%
Public Policy Polling^[33]	April 23–25, 2010	47%	44%
Rasmussen Reports^[32]	April 14, 2010	40%	44%
Rasmussen Reports^[32]	March 16, 2010	45%	43%
Rasmussen Reports^[32]	January 20, 2010	43%	42%
Rasmussen Reports^[34]	November 18, 2009	44%	42%
Rasmussen Reports^[35]	September 27, 2009	42%	40%
Public Policy Polling^[36]	September 7, 2009	46%	36%

Debate

On September 1, the first and only debate was held between all four candidates and moderated by Ted Simons. The debate drew national attention after Jan Brewer "stumbled and stammered" through her opening statements. Before the debate the governor had made several comments about there being beheadings in the desert. During the debate Terry Goddard tried to get the governor to admit that it was a false statement. Goddard said quote Jan I'm going to give you an opportunity to admit that was a false statement but of course the governor Steered clear of the question. After the debate reporters were demanding answers, and still she would just not answer the question.^[37] After the debate, Brewer stated that she would do no more debates.^[38]^[39]

Results

Arizona gubernatorial election, 2010^[40]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Janice Kay Brewer (inc.)	938,934	54.33%	+18.89%
	Democratic	Samuel Pearson Goddard III	733,935	42.43%	−20.11%
	Libertarian	Barry Hess	38,722	2.24%	+0.27%
	Green	Larry Gist	16,128	0.93%
	Write-ins		362	0.02%
Majority			204,999	11.86%	−15.28%
Turnout			1,728,081
	Republican hold		Swing

By county

County^[41]	Jan Brewer Republican		Terry Goddard Democratic		Barry Hess Libertarian		Larry Gist Green		Write-in		Margin		Total votes
County^[41]	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	Total votes
Apache	7,002	33.89	12,839	62.14	514	2.48	294	1.4	10	0.04	-5,837	-28.25	20,659
Cochise	24,974	62.32	13,954	34.82	742	1.85	398	0.99	2	0.00	11,020	27.50	40,070
Coconino	16,754	43.02	20,792	53.39	880	2.25	505	1.27	13	0.01	-4,038	-10.37	38,942
Gila	11,163	62.26	6,155	34.32	451	2.51	158	0.88	2	0.01	5,008	27.94	17,929
Graham	5,994	65.48	2,865	31.30	220	2.40	74	0.80	0	0.00	3,129	34.18	9,153
Greenlee	1,187	48.48	1,177	48.08	60	2.45	24	0.98	0	0.00	10	0.40	2,448
La Paz	3,048	67.31	1,330	29.37	80	1.76	70	1.54	0	0.00	1,718	37.94	4,528
Maricopa	543,045	54.78	415,142	41.88	24,077	2.42	8,600	0.86	280	0.02	127,903	12.90	991,144
Mohave	39,026	72.65	12,777	23.78	1,307	2.43	601	1.11	4	0.00	26,249	48.87	53,715
Navajo	16,157	54.49	12,517	42.22	648	2.18	317	1.06	7	0.02	3,640	12.27	29,646
Pima	148,916	47.18	158,337	50.17	648	0.20	317	0.10	16	0.00	-9,421	-2.99	315,589
Pinal	45,807	58.28	30,109	38.31	1922	2.44	735	0.93	18	0.02	15,698	19.97	78,591
Santa Cruz	3,190	31.76	6,608	65.81	138	1.37	105	1.04	0	0.00	-3,418	-34.05	10,041
Yavapai	53,081	65.21	25,569	31.41	1,830	2.24	900	1.10	8	0.00	27,512	33.80	81,388
Yuma	19,590	57.22	13,764	40.20	500	1.46	380	1.10	2	0.00	5,826	17.02	34,236
Totals	938,934	54.33	733,935	42.43	38,722	2.24	16,128	0.93	362	0.02	204,999	11.90	1,728,081

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Cochise (Largest city: Seirra Vista)
Gila (Largest city: Payson)
Graham (Largest city: Safford)
Greenlee (Largest city: Clifton)
La Paz (Largest city: Parker)
Maricopa (Largest city: Phoenix)
Mohave (Largest city: Lake Havasu City)
Navajo (Largest city: Show Low)
Pinal (Largest city: San Tan Valley)
Yavapai (Largest city: Prescott Valley)
Yuma (Largest city: Yuma)

References

^ "Voter Registration Statistics | Arizona Secretary of State". Retrieved May 7, 2023.
^ "Governor: Napolitano resigns". The Arizona Guardian. January 20, 2009. Archived from the original on July 21, 2011. Retrieved September 2, 2010.
^ Davenport, Paul (November 5, 2009). "Brewer running for full term as Ariz. governor". The Arizona Republic. Archived from the original on December 31, 2014. Retrieved February 18, 2010.
^ "Terry Goddard for Governor – Arizona". Terrygoddard.org. August 17, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
^ "Arizona Candidates List". Arizona SOS. August 3, 2010. Archived from the original on July 16, 2010. Retrieved August 3, 2010.
^ ^a ^b ^c "Arizona Gubernatorial Primary Results". Arizona SOS. August 24, 2010. Archived from the original on August 27, 2010. Retrieved August 27, 2010.
^ Jessica Taylor. "Martin drops challenge to Brewer". Politico.Com. Archived from the original on August 1, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
^ Jessica Taylor. "Mills drops campaign against Brewer". Politico.Com. Archived from the original on August 1, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
^ Hensley, JJ (May 3, 2010). "Joe Arpaio won't run for Arizona governor". The Arizona Republic. Archived from the original on May 6, 2010.
^ "Arizona Capitol Times " Blog Archive " Munger drops out of governor's race". Azcapitoltimes.com. Archived from the original on July 1, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
^ Benson, Matthew; Newton, Casey; Mary Jo Pitzl (October 11, 2009). "Political Insider: Symington won't run in '10". The Arizona Republic. Archived from the original on February 18, 2010.
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Rasmussen Reports ^{[permanent dead link‍]}
^ Public Policy Polling
^ ^a ^b Rasmussen Reports
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Public Policy Polling
^ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
^ "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
^ "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
^ "The Crystal Ball's Final Calls". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
^ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
^ ^a ^b Rasmussen Reports
^ Public Policy Polling
^ BRC Polls
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d Rasmussen Reports
^ Public Policy Polling
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Public Policy Polling
^ "Arizona governor stumbles during debate". NBC News. Archived from the original on December 24, 2021.
^ "Category: DC". Talking Points Memo.
^ Services, Howard Fischer Capitol Media. "Brewer: No more debates – period". Arizona Daily Star.
^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on September 20, 2013. Retrieved January 6, 2014.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on September 20, 2013. Retrieved January 6, 2014.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)

External links

Elections at the Arizona Secretary of State
Arizona Governor Candidates at Project Vote Smart
Arizona Governor 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
2010 Arizona Governor General Election: Jan Brewer (R) vs Terry Goddard (D) graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
Election 2010: Arizona Governor from Rasmussen Reports
2010 Arizona Governor Race from Real Clear Politics
2010 Arizona Governor's Race from CQ Politics
Campaign contributions for 2010 Arizona Governor from Follow the Money
Race Profile in The New York Times

Debates

Arizona Governor Debate, C-SPAN, September 1, 2010, full video (58:00)

Official campaign sites

Jan Brewer for Governor (Archived)
Terry Goddard for Governor (Archived)

[1] "Voter Registration Statistics | Arizona Secretary of State". Retrieved May 7, 2023.

[2] "Governor: Napolitano resigns". The Arizona Guardian. January 20, 2009. Archived from the original on July 21, 2011. Retrieved September 2, 2010.

[brewer-3] Davenport, Paul (November 5, 2009). "Brewer running for full term as Ariz. governor". The Arizona Republic. Archived from the original on December 31, 2014. Retrieved February 18, 2010.

[4] "Terry Goddard for Governor – Arizona". Terrygoddard.org. August 17, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.

[Candidates-5] "Arizona Candidates List". Arizona SOS. August 3, 2010. Archived from the original on July 16, 2010. Retrieved August 3, 2010.

[Results-6] "Arizona Gubernatorial Primary Results". Arizona SOS. August 24, 2010. Archived from the original on August 27, 2010. Retrieved August 27, 2010.

[7] Jessica Taylor. "Martin drops challenge to Brewer". Politico.Com. Archived from the original on August 1, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.

[8] Jessica Taylor. "Mills drops campaign against Brewer". Politico.Com. Archived from the original on August 1, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.

[9] Hensley, JJ (May 3, 2010). "Joe Arpaio won't run for Arizona governor". The Arizona Republic. Archived from the original on May 6, 2010.

[10] "Arizona Capitol Times " Blog Archive " Munger drops out of governor's race". Azcapitoltimes.com. Archived from the original on July 1, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.

[11] Benson, Matthew; Newton, Casey; Mary Jo Pitzl (October 11, 2009). "Political Insider: Symington won't run in '10". The Arizona Republic. Archived from the original on February 18, 2010.

[12] Rasmussen Reports

[13] Rasmussen Reports ^{[permanent dead link‍]}

[14] Public Policy Polling

[Rasmussen_Reports-15] Rasmussen Reports

[16] Rasmussen Reports

[17] Rasmussen Reports

[18] Public Policy Polling

[19] "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.

[20] "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.

[21] "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.

[22] "The Crystal Ball's Final Calls". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 28, 2010.

[23] "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.

[rasmussenreports.com-24] Rasmussen Reports

[25] Public Policy Polling

[26] BRC Polls

[27] Rasmussen Reports

[28] Rasmussen Reports

[29] Rasmussen Reports

[30] Rasmussen Reports

[31] Rasmussen Reports

[ReferenceA-32] Rasmussen Reports

[33] Public Policy Polling

[34] Rasmussen Reports

[35] Rasmussen Reports

[36] Public Policy Polling

[37] "Arizona governor stumbles during debate". NBC News. Archived from the original on December 24, 2021.

[38] "Category: DC". Talking Points Memo.

[39] Services, Howard Fischer Capitol Media. "Brewer: No more debates – period". Arizona Daily Star.

[40] "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on September 20, 2013. Retrieved January 6, 2014.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)

[41] "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on September 20, 2013. Retrieved January 6, 2014.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)

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