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Bury North (UK Parliament constituency)

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Bury North is a borough constituency in Greater Manchester, created in 1983 and represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament. With a Conservative majority of 105 votes, it was the most marginal constituency for a sitting MP in the United Kingdom at the 2019 general election. At the 2024 general election, James Frith regained the seat which he had held for Labour from 2017 to 2019.

Bury North
Borough constituency
for the House of Commons
Map
Interactive map of boundaries from 2024
Map of constituency
Boundary of Bury North in North West England
CountyGreater Manchester
Population87,218 (2011 UK Census)[1]
Electorate77,009 (2023)[2]
Major settlementsBury, Ramsbottom, Tottington
Current constituency
Created1983
Member of ParliamentJames Frith (Labour)
SeatsOne
Created fromRossendale (part)
Bury & Radcliffe (part)

History

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Summary of results

Bury North is a marginal seat between Labour and the Conservatives, and a bellwether constituency throughout most of its existence — the winner of the seat has tended to win the general election, with 2017 being an exceptional Labour gain, though it was subsequently regained by the Conservatives in 2019. In forerunner seats, the town of Bury did not have a Labour MP until 1964, since when Bury North has become reported on as an important marginal seat.

The 2010 Conservative win at Bury North was the Conservative Party's sole gain in Greater Manchester. The 2015 general election result was narrower, which produced the fifth-most marginal majority of the Conservative Party's 331 seats by percentage of majority.[3] The 2019 general election result made this the most marginal constituency in Great Britain, with a narrow majority of 105 votes. Only Sinn Fein's majority of 57 in Fermanagh and South Tyrone was lower in the UK, and as Sinn Fein members do not take their seats, Daly's majority was therefore the smallest for that of a sitting MP.

Despite boundary changes which were favorable to the Conservatives, Labour retook the seat in 2024 with a majority of over 15%.

Boundaries

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Historic

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The constituency of Bury North covers the towns of Ramsbottom, Tottington and Bury. It was created in 1983 from parts of the former seats of Rossendale and Bury and Radcliffe. In those boundary changes Ramsbottom was transferred from Rossendale to Bury North, while with the loss of Ramsbottom, Rossendale was linked with Darwen. In 2010 the Unsworth area was transferred to Bury South.

1983–2010: The Metropolitan Borough of Bury wards of Church, East, Elton, Moorside, Ramsbottom, Redvales, Tottington, and Unsworth.

2010–2024: The Metropolitan Borough of Bury wards of Church, East, Elton, Moorside, North Manor, Ramsbottom, Redvales, and Tottington.

Current

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Further to the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies which came into effect for the 2024 general election, the constituency was expanded to bring the electorate within the permitted range by transferring from Bury South the ward of Radcliffe North (as it existed on 1 December 2020).[4]

Following a local government boundary review which came into effect in May 2022,[5][6] the constituency now comprises the following wards of the Metropolitan Borough of Bury from the 2024 general election:

  • Bury East; Bury West (nearly all); Elton; Moorside; North Manor; Radcliffe North & Ainsworth (most); Ramsbottom; Redvales; Tottington; and a small part of Unsworth.[7]

Constituency profile

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Despite its name, Bury North includes the entirety of the town of Bury. A traditional Labour-Conservative marginal, Ramsbottom and Tottington are mostly Conservative, but in the case of Ramsbottom, not always overwhelmingly so, whereas the town of Bury itself (particularly the Bury East ward) is generally more favourable to Labour, with Elton being a marginal. Tottington, Church ward and the rural North Manor ward are safely Conservative, however Ramsbottom is now a Labour marginal, re-gained by the party in 2018. The 2011 Ramsbottom local election was famously a tie between the Labour and Conservative candidates, decided by drawing straws which Labour won and took control of the council.

The wards surrounding the town centre include some terraced and social housing and is ethnically diverse. The Bury town centre itself features two large sixth form colleges, the 'World Famous' market famed for Black Pudding as well as newer shopping and leisure developments such as The Rock. Tourist attractions include the East Lancashire Heritage Railway and Fusiliers Museum. North of Bury the area becomes more rural, approaching the provincial towns of Tottington and Ramsbottom, which are becoming increasingly desirable for Manchester commuters looking for quieter housing overlooking the West Pennines. Ramsbottom features Peel Monument, a tower on Holcombe Hill dedicated to former Conservative Prime Minister Robert Peel who was born in Bury. The tower is occasionally opened by volunteers, which offers views across Greater Manchester and as far out as Cheshire.

The constituency voted Leave in the 2016 referendum with a margin close to that of the national average at an estimated 54%.[8]

Members of Parliament

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Election Member[9][10] Party
1983 Alistair Burt Conservative
1997 David Chaytor Labour
2010 David Nuttall Conservative
2017 James Frith Labour
2019 James Daly Conservative
2024 James Frith Labour

Elections

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Bury North constituency vote share as a percentage between 1997 and 2019

Elections in the 2020s

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General election 2024: Bury North[11]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour James Frith 19,625 43.1 –1.8
Conservative James Daly 12,681 27.9 –19.4
Reform UK Lynda Rosewell 7,385 16.2 +13.5
Workers Party Shafat Ali 1,917 4.2 N/A
Green Owain Sutton 1,747 3.8 +2.0
Liberal Democrats Mark Alcock 1,317 2.9 –0.2
Independent Anwarul Haq 571 1.3 N/A
Independent Spencer Donnelly 277 0.6 N/A
Majority 6,944 15.2 N/A
Turnout 45,520 58.5 −10.8
Registered electors 77,703
Labour gain from Conservative Swing +8.8

Elections in the 2010s

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2019 notional result[12]
Party Vote %
Conservative 25,285 47.3
Labour 24,003 44.9
Liberal Democrats 1,639 3.1
Brexit Party 1,446 2.7
Green 939 1.8
Others 158 0.3
Turnout 53,470 69.4
Electorate 77,009
General election 2019: Bury North[13][14]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative James Daly 21,660 46.2 +1.7
Labour James Frith 21,555 46.0 –7.6
Liberal Democrats Gareth Lloyd-Johnson 1,584 3.4 +1.5
Brexit Party Alan McCarthy 1,240 2.6 N/A
Green Charlie Allen 802 1.8 N/A
Majority 105 0.2 N/A
Turnout 46,841 68.1 –2.8
Conservative gain from Labour Swing + 4.7

This was the smallest Conservative majority at the 2019 general election.[14]

General election 2017: Bury North[15]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour James Frith 25,683 53.6 +12.5
Conservative David Nuttall 21,308 44.5 +2.6
Liberal Democrats Richard Baum 912 1.9 –0.2
Majority 4,375 9.1 N/A
Turnout 47,903 70.9 +4.0
Labour gain from Conservative Swing + 5.0
See also: Opinion polling in United Kingdom constituencies, 2010–15 § Bury North
General election 2015: Bury North[16][17]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative David Nuttall 18,970 41.9 +1.7
Labour James Frith 18,592 41.1 +5.9
UKIP Ian Henderson 5,595 12.4 +9.5
Green John Southworth 1,141 2.5 N/A
Liberal Democrats Richard Baum 932 2.1 −14.9
Majority 378 0.8 −4.2
Turnout 45,230 66.9 −0.4
Conservative hold Swing −2.1
General election 2010: Bury North[18][19][20]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative David Nuttall 18,070 40.2 +3.7
Labour Maryam Khan 15,827 35.2 −7.8
Liberal Democrats Richard Baum 7,645 17.0 +1.9
BNP John Maude 1,825 4.1 +0.1
UKIP Stephen Evans 1,282 2.9 +1.8
Independent Bill Brison 181 0.4 N/A
Pirate Graeme Lambert 131 0.3 N/A
Majority 2,243 5.0 N/A
Turnout 44,961 67.3 +5.7
Conservative gain from Labour Swing +5.8

Elections in the 2000s

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General election 2005: Bury North[21]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour David Chaytor 19,130 43.0 −8.2
Conservative David Nuttall 16,204 36.5 −0.1
Liberal Democrats Wilfred Davison 6,514 14.7 +2.6
BNP Stewart Clough 1,790 4.0 N/A
UKIP Philip Silver 476 1.1 N/A
Socialist Labour Ryan O'Neill 172 0.4 N/A
Veritas Ian Upton 153 0.3 N/A
Majority 2,926 6.5 −8.1
Turnout 44,439 61.5 −1.5
Labour hold Swing −4.0
General election 2001: Bury North[22]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour David Chaytor 22,945 51.2 −0.6
Conservative John Walsh 16,413 36.6 −0.9
Liberal Democrats Bryn Hackley 5,430 12.1 +3.9
Majority 6,532 14.6 +0.3
Turnout 44,788 63.0 −14.8
Labour hold Swing +0.1

Elections in the 1990s

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General election 1997: Bury North[23][24][25]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour David Chaytor 28,523 51.8 +10.2
Conservative Alistair Burt 20,657 37.5 −12.2
Liberal Democrats Neville Kenyon 4,536 8.2 −0.3
Referendum Richard Hallewell 1,337 2.4 N/A
Majority 7,866 14.3 N/A
Turnout 55,053 77.8 −7.0
Labour gain from Conservative Swing +11.2
General election 1992: Bury North[26][27]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Alistair Burt 29,266 49.7 −0.4
Labour Jim Dobbin 24,502 41.6 +3.8
Liberal Democrats Colin McGrath 5,010 8.5 −3.6
Natural Law Michael Sullivan 163 0.3 N/A
Majority 4,764 8.1 −4.2
Turnout 58,941 84.8 +2.3
Conservative hold Swing −2.1

Elections in the 1980s

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General election 1987: Bury North[28]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Alistair Burt 28,097 50.1 +4.6
Labour David Crausby 21,186 37.8 −2.4
Liberal David Vasmer 6,804 12.1 −2.3
Majority 6,911 12.3 +7.0
Turnout 56,087 82.5 +2.9
Conservative hold Swing +3.5
General election 1983: Bury North[29]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Alistair Burt 23,923 45.5
Labour Frank White 21,131 40.2
Liberal Elisabeth Wilson 7,550 14.4
Majority 2,792 5.3
Turnout 52,604 79.6
Conservative win (new seat)

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Bury North: Usual Resident Population, 2011". Neighbourhood Statistics. Office for National Statistics. Archived from the original on 8 February 2015. Retrieved 7 February 2015.
  2. ^ "The 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituency Boundaries in England – Volume two: Constituency names, designations and composition – North West". Boundary Commission for England. Retrieved 6 July 2024.
  3. ^ "Conservative Members of Parliament 2015". UK Political.info. Archived from the original on 8 June 2017. Retrieved 12 February 2017.
  4. ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies Order 2023". Schedule 1 Part 5 North West region.
  5. ^ LGBCE. "Bury | LGBCE". www.lgbce.org.uk. Retrieved 19 April 2024.
  6. ^ "The Bury (Electoral Changes) Order 2022".
  7. ^ "New Seat Details - Bury North". www.electoralcalculus.co.uk. Retrieved 19 April 2024.
  8. ^ "Election 2021 dashboard". Archived from the original on 5 November 2019. Retrieved 1 February 2021.
  9. ^ "Bury North 1983–". Parliamentary Debates (Hansard). Archived from the original on 13 May 2014. Retrieved 7 February 2015.
  10. ^ Leigh Rayment's Historical List of MPs – Constituencies beginning with "B" (part 5)
  11. ^ "Statement of persons nominated, notice of poll and situation of polling stations for Bury North". Sky News. Retrieved 5 July 2024.
  12. ^ "Notional results for a UK general election on 12 December 2019". Rallings & Thrasher, Professor David Denver (Scotland), Nicholas Whyte (NI) for Sky News, PA, BBC News and ITV News. UK Parliament. Retrieved 11 July 2024.
  13. ^ "Bury North parliamentary constituency – Election 2019". BBC News. Archived from the original on 13 December 2019. Retrieved 14 December 2019.
  14. ^ a b "Commons Briefing Paper 8749. General Election 2019: results and analysis" (PDF). London: House of Commons Library. 28 January 2020. Archived (PDF) from the original on 18 November 2021. Retrieved 19 January 2022.
  15. ^ "Commons Briefing Paper 7979. General Election 2017: results and analysis" (PDF) (Second ed.). House of Commons Library. 29 January 2019 [7 April 2018]. Archived (PDF) from the original on 12 November 2019.
  16. ^ "Election Data 2015". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 17 October 2015. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
  17. ^ "Bury North". BBC News. Archived from the original on 12 June 2017. Retrieved 11 May 2015.
  18. ^ "Election Data 2010". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 26 July 2013. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
  19. ^ "General Election Results 2010". Bury Council. 5 December 2005. Archived from the original on 12 May 2010. Retrieved 7 June 2010.
  20. ^ "Election 2010 – Bury North". BBC News. Archived from the original on 1 May 2020. Retrieved 7 May 2010.
  21. ^ "Election Data 2005". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  22. ^ "Election Data 2001". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  23. ^ "Election Data 1997". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  24. ^ "Politics Resources". Election 1997. Politics Resources. 1 May 1997. Archived from the original on 14 June 2012. Retrieved 10 January 2011.
  25. ^ C. Rallings & M. Thrasher, The Media Guide to the New Parliamentary Constituencies, p.45 (Plymouth: LGC Elections Centre, 1995)
  26. ^ "Election Data 1992". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  27. ^ "Politics Resources". Election 1992. Politics Resources. 9 April 1992. Archived from the original on 24 July 2011. Retrieved 6 December 2010.
  28. ^ "Election Data 1987". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  29. ^ "Election Data 1983". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
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53°36′25″N 2°17′56″W / 53.607°N 2.299°W / 53.607; -2.299

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