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2015 Castilian-Manchegan regional election

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The 2015 Castilian-Manchegan regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Cortes of the autonomous community of Castilla–La Mancha. All 33 seats in the Cortes were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

2015 Castilian-Manchegan regional election
← 2011 24 May 2015 2019 →
All 33 seats in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha
17 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered1,576,351 Green arrow up0.6%
Turnout1,127,147 (71.5%)
Red arrow down4.5 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader María Dolores de Cospedal Emiliano García-Page José García Molina
Party PP PSOE Podemos
Leader since 14 June 2006 26 February 2012 1 April 2015
Leader's seat Toledo Toledo Toledo
Last election 25 seats, 48.1% 24 seats, 43.4% Did not contest
Seats won 16 15 2
Seat change Red arrow down9 Red arrow down9 Green arrow up2
Popular vote 413,349 398,104 107,463
Percentage 37.5% 36.1% 9.7%
Swing Red arrow down10.6 pp Red arrow down7.3 pp New party
Constituency results map for the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha
President before election

María Dolores de Cospedal
PP

Elected President

Emiliano García-Page
PSOE

Overview

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Electoral system

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The Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Castilla–La Mancha, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Castilian-Manchegan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a President of the Junta of Communities.[1] Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Castilla–La Mancha and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Castilian-Manchegan people abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2]

The 33 members of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Additionally, the use of the D'Hondt method might result in an effective threshold over three percent, depending on the district magnitude.[3] Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Albacete, Ciudad Real, Cuenca, Guadalajara and Toledo. Each constituency was entitled to an initial minimum of three seats, with the remaining 18 allocated among the constituencies in proportion to their populations.[a][1][4]

The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they sought election. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[4][5][6]

Election date

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The term of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha expired four years after the date of their previous election. Elections to the Cortes were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, setting the election date for the Cortes on Sunday, 24 May 2015.[1][4][5][6]

The President of the Junta of Communities had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the candidate from the party with the highest number of seats was to be deemed automatically elected.[1]

Opinion polls

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The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

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The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 17 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha (25 until 13 August 2012 and 27 from 13 August 2012 to 21 July 2014).

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls   Exit poll

Voting preferences

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The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

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The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

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The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred President

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The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Junta of Communities of Castilla–La Mancha.

Results

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Overall

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← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha election results →
 
Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total +/−
People's Party (PP) 413,349 37.49 –10.62 16 –9
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) 398,104 36.11 –7.29 15 –9
We Can (Podemos) 107,463 9.75 New 2 +2
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) 95,230 8.64 New 0 ±0
Let's Win Castilla–La Mancha–The Greens–United Left (Ganemos–LV–IU)1 34,230 3.10 –0.67 0 ±0
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 10,866 0.99 –0.76 0 ±0
Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) 8,943 0.81 +0.46 0 ±0
Vox (Vox) 5,302 0.48 New 0 ±0
Union of Independent Citizens (UCIN)2 5,061 0.46 +0.34 0 ±0
The Greens–Green Group (LV–GV) 1,918 0.17 –0.03 0 ±0
Castilian Party–Castilian Unity (PCAS–UdCa)3 1,532 0.14 –0.15 0 ±0
Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) 987 0.09 New 0 ±0
Independents and Liberals for Manzanares (LIM) 287 0.03 New 0 ±0
Blank ballots 19,256 1.75 +0.08
Total 1,102,528 33 –16
Valid votes 1,102,528 97.82 –0.87
Invalid votes 24,619 2.18 +0.87
Votes cast / turnout 1,127,147 71.50 –4.46
Abstentions 449,204 28.50 +4.46
Registered voters 1,576,351
Sources[7][8][9]
Footnotes:
Popular vote
PP
 
 37.49%
PSOE
 
 36.11%
Podemos
 
 9.75%
C's
 
 8.64%
Ganemos–LV–IU
 
 3.10%
Others
 
 3.17%
Blank ballots
 
 1.75%
Seats
PP
 
 48.48%
PSOE
 
 45.45%
Podemos
 
 6.06%

Distribution by constituency

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Constituency PP PSOE Podemos
% S % S % S
Albacete 36.7 3 33.8 3 11.2 −
Ciudad Real 37.1 4 38.8 4 8.4 −
Cuenca 41.5 3 37.6 2 8.0 −
Guadalajara 33.7 2 30.0 2 14.6 1
Toledo 38.3 4 36.9 4 8.8 1
Total 37.5 16 36.1 15 9.7 2
Sources[7][8][9]

Aftermath

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Investiture
Emiliano García-Page (PSOE)
Ballot → 1 July 2015
Required majority → 17 out of 33  Y
Yes
17 / 33
No
  • • PP (16)
16 / 33
Abstentions
0 / 33
Absentees
0 / 33
Sources[9]

Notes

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  1. ^ The electoral law was amended twice, in 2012 and 2014. The 2012 amendment provided for a 53 seat-Cortes and a fixed allocation of seats among constituencies: 10 for Albacete, 12 for Ciudad Real, 9 for Cuenca, 9 for Guadalajara and 13 for Toledo. As a result of them being superseded by the 2014 amendment, no election was fought under these rules.

References

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Opinion poll sources
  1. ^ "Los sondeos a pie de urna dan la victoria a María Dolores Cospedal, que tendrá entre 15 y 17 diputados". Voces de Cuenca (in Spanish). 24 May 2015.
  2. ^ "El PP obtendría entre 15 y 17 diputados en Castilla–La Mancha y el PSOE entre 13 y 15". ABC (in Spanish). 24 May 2015.
  3. ^ "Encuestas y resultados - elecciones autonómicas y municipales del 24 de mayo de 2015". GAD3 (in Spanish). 28 May 2015.
  4. ^ "Cospedal, ante su primera reválida". ABC (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  5. ^ "Rajoy cree un éxito ser el más votado aunque pierda plazas simbólicas". ABC (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  6. ^ "El PP mantendría sin apoyos Castilla y León, Castilla–La Mancha, Murcia y La Rioja". La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  7. ^ "Castilla–La Mancha: Cospedal se mantiene en el límite de revalidar su mandato". La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  8. ^ "Castilla–La Mancha. Encuesta mayo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 18 May 2015.
  9. ^ "Cospedal se queda al filo de la mayoría absoluta en Castilla–La Mancha". El Mundo (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  10. ^ "Intención de voto en Castilla–La Mancha. Gráfico". El Mundo (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  11. ^ "Las últimas encuestas internas dan a Cospedal la mayoría absoluta en Castilla-La Mancha". Libertad Digital (in Spanish). 10 May 2015.
  12. ^ "La última y muy reciente encuesta interna del PP: mayoría absoluta de Cospedal y victoria en las cinco provincias". El Digital de Castilla-La Mancha (in Spanish). 11 May 2015. Archived from the original on 18 May 2015.
  13. ^ Díez, Anabel (9 May 2015). "Cospedal vence sin mayoría absoluta tras la irrupción de Ciudadanos". El País (in Spanish).
  14. ^ "Situación política en Castilla–La Mancha". El País (in Spanish). 9 May 2015.
  15. ^ "Estudio político Castilla–La Mancha / mayo de 2015" (PDF). Noxa Consulting (in Spanish). 10 May 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 18 May 2015.
  16. ^ "Castilla–La Mancha, Mayo 2015. Sondeo Noxa". Electograph (in Spanish). 10 May 2015.
  17. ^ "Cospedal ganará las elecciones y superará a Page en las 5 provincias". La Tribuna de Toledo (in Spanish). 14 May 2015.
  18. ^ "Page vencería aunque sin mayoría, en la encuesta de La Voz del Tajo". lavozdeltajo.com (in Spanish). 5 May 2015.
  19. ^ "Cospedal, cerca de obtener su segunda mayoría absoluta en Castilla–La Mancha". ABC (in Spanish). 3 May 2015.
  20. ^ a b c d e "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas 2015. Comunidad Autónoma de Castilla–La Mancha (Estudio nº 3071. Marzo-Abril 2015)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 7 May 2015.
  21. ^ "Sánchez se lanza al ataque como "única alternativa a la derecha"". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 8 May 2015.
  22. ^ "Page ganaría a Cospedal en la mayoría de grandes localidades de la región". La Calle (in Spanish). 22 April 2015. Archived from the original on 30 April 2015.
  23. ^ a b "Cospedal pierde la mayoría y empata con Page, mejor valorado por los ciudadanos". La Calle (in Spanish). 24 March 2015.
  24. ^ "El PP seguirá siendo el más votado en las CC AA pese a la caída en apoyos". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
  25. ^ "Castilla–La Mancha: Cospedal aguanta el tipo ante un PSOE desgastado en la oposición". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
  26. ^ "Castilla–La Mancha. Encuesta marzo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 27 April 2015.
  27. ^ "Los sondeos prevén la entrada de Podemos en Castilla–La Mancha y la salida de Cospedal del Gobierno". VozPópuli (in Spanish). 25 February 2015. Archived from the original on 26 February 2015.
  28. ^ "Castilla–La Mancha, Febrero 2015. Sondeos internos PP y PSOE". Electograph (in Spanish). 25 February 2015.
  29. ^ "Castilla–La Mancha, Febrero 2015. Sondeo interno PP". Electograph (in Spanish). 20 February 2015.
  30. ^ "Cospedal revalida". ABC (in Spanish). 28 January 2015.
  31. ^ "Cospedal repetirá en Castilla La Mancha". La Gaceta (in Spanish). 29 January 2015.
  32. ^ "Castilla–La Mancha, Enero 2015. Sondeo interno PP". Electograph (in Spanish). 2 February 2015.
  33. ^ "Cospedal renovará la mayoría absoluta en Castilla–La Mancha". ABC (in Spanish). 1 March 2015.
  34. ^ "El PP revalidaría la mayoría absoluta en Castilla–La Mancha con 17 diputados". ABC (in Spanish). 1 February 2015.
  35. ^ "El reparto del poder territorial en España en 2015" (PDF). desarrollando-ideas.com (in Spanish). 31 October 2014.
  36. ^ "Cospedal revalidaría la mayoría absoluta en las elecciones regionales". La Tribuna de Albacete (in Spanish). 17 November 2014.
  37. ^ "El PP refuerza su mayoría absoluta con 28 diputados frente a los 23 del PSOE". ABC (in Spanish). 4 May 2014.
  38. ^ "Cospedal repetiría mayoría absoluta con 4 diputados más que el PSOE". La Tribuna de Albacete (in Spanish). 16 December 2013.
  39. ^ "El PP ganaría de nuevo en 9 de 13 autonomías". La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013. Archived from the original on 3 March 2016.
  40. ^ "Encuesta autonómicas NC Report noviembre 2013" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013. Archived from the original (PDF) on 3 March 2016. Retrieved 25 February 2015.
  41. ^ "Cospedal volvería a ganar por mayoría absoluta". La Tribuna de Albacete (in Spanish). 20 May 2013.
  42. ^ "El PP mantiene el poder autonómico". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
  43. ^ "Repite la mayoría absoluta: Castilla–La Mancha, Baleares, Castilla y León, Región de Murcia y La Rioja". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
  44. ^ "El PP ganaría en la mayoría de las autonomías (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 13 May 2013. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016.
  45. ^ "Cospedal aumentaría su mayoría absoluta en Castilla–La Mancha". ABC (in Spanish). 31 May 2013.
Other
  1. ^ a b c d Statute of Autonomy of Castilla–La Mancha of 1982. Official State Gazette (Organic Law 9) (in Spanish). 10 August 1982. Retrieved 15 September 2017.
  2. ^ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  3. ^ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  4. ^ a b c Castilla–La Mancha Electoral Law of 1986. Official Journal of Castilla–La Mancha (Law 5) (in Spanish). 23 December 1986. Retrieved 15 September 2017.
  5. ^ a b General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985. Official State Gazette (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 28 December 2016.
  6. ^ a b "Representation of the people Institutional Act". www.juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
  7. ^ a b "Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha election results, 24 May 2015" (PDF). www.juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Electoral Commission of Castilla–La Mancha. 15 June 2015. Retrieved 29 September 2017.
  8. ^ a b "IX Legislature. Regional election, 24 May 2015". www.cortesclm.es (in Spanish). Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha. Retrieved 29 September 2017.
  9. ^ a b c "Elecciones a las Cortes de Castilla - La Mancha (1983 - 2019)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 29 September 2017.
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