Wikipedia

2010 Florida gubernatorial election

(Redirected from Dan Imperato)

For related races, see 2010 United States gubernatorial elections.

The 2010 Florida gubernatorial election took place on November 2, 2010. Republican-turned-independent incumbent Governor Charlie Crist chose not to run for a second term and he ran unsuccessfully for the Senate seat vacated by Mel Martínez.[2] This resulted in an open race for Governor of Florida in which Republican Rick Scott narrowly defeated Democrat Alex Sink.

2010 Florida gubernatorial election
← 2006 November 2, 2010 2014 →
Turnout48.7%Increase1.9[1]
 
Nominee Rick Scott Alex Sink
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Jennifer Carroll Rod Smith
Popular vote 2,619,335 2,557,785
Percentage 48.87% 47.72%
Scott:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Sink:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No votes
Governor before election

Charlie Crist
Independent

Elected Governor

Rick Scott
Republican

Despite mixed to unfavorable ratings, Rick Scott benefited greatly from the midterm GOP wave in which Republicans made significant gains across the country.[3] Scott was one of six Republican gubernatorial pick-ups nationwide (counting Crist as an independent).

The tight and highly contentious election was one of the standout races in 2010. Despite not professing direct allegiance to the movement,[4] Scott benefited from support and endorsement by Tea Party activists,[3][5] an influential conservative voting bloc of the 2010 midterms. Furthermore, Scott ran aggressively against the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), and exit polls indicated considerable support for that position.[6] This election was the first Florida gubernatorial election since 1982 where the winner of the gubernatorial election was of the same party as the winner of the concurrent United States Senate election.

Primary Elections

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Democratic

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Candidates

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Alex Sink, the CFO of Florida, was mentioned as a possible candidate to run for Senate or Governor in 2010,[7][8] but initially declined. When Charlie Crist announced he would not run for re-election, Sink immediately announced her campaign for governor. Sink was the wife of Bill McBride, who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2002.

Sink faced only token opposition in the primary. Her lone opponent was former Socialist Party presidential nominee Brian Moore.[9] On primary day, Sink won the Democratic nomination with nearly 77% of the vote.

 
County results
Democratic primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Alex Sink 663,802 76.9%
Democratic Brian Moore 199,896 23.1%
Total votes 863,698 100.0%

Republican

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In May 2009, Republican incumbent governor Charlie Crist announced he would not run for re-election, and instead would run for U.S. Senate.[11] The move immediately turned the race competitive, as GOP-hopefuls lined up to run for the open seat. Former congressman and Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum emerged as the early favorite. McCollum had previously lost the election for Senate in 2000, and lost the Republican nomination for Senate in 2004. This would be his third attempt at a major statewide campaign.

Just before the deadline, Rick Scott jumped into the primary fight. Scott started dumping millions of his own personal fortune into the race.[12] The race quickly became one of the most expensive and "nasty" primary campaigns in recent Florida history.[13] Scott and McCollum lashed out with very negative attacks against each other. Scott ran as a political "outsider", and led some early polls, but McCollum re-took the lead in polls just before primary day. Scott benefited in the absentee voting, while McCollum expected to make up the difference based on turnout. On primary day, Scott won the nomination with just over 46% of the vote. The dejected McCollum team reluctantly conceded after midnight.

 
County results
Republican primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Rick Scott 595,474 46.4%
Republican Bill McCollum 557,427 43.4%
Republican Mike McCalister 130,056 10.1%
Total votes 1,282,957 100.0%

General Election

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Candidates

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Republican

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Democratic

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  • Alex Sink, Chief Financial Officer of Florida

Independence Party of Florida

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  • Peter L. Allen, electrical inspector

No party affiliation

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The race was dominated by the two major party candidates and spending on their behalf. By the October 25, 2010, Tampa debate between Scott and Sink, Scott had spent $60 million of his own money on the campaign compared to Sink's $28 million.[15] Total campaign expenditure for the race exceeded $100 million, far exceeding any previous spending for a governor's race in Florida.[16] Scott spent $78 million of his personal wealth in the race.[17] Sink made an issue of Scott's connections to Columbia/HCA, a Medicare billing fraud scandal.[3]

One of the turning points in the campaign came during the debate. During a commercial break, Sink's make-up artist delivered a text message on her cell phone to Sink, in direct violation of the debate rules. The rules infraction was immediately pointed out by Scott and the debate moderators.[18] Sink's team was accused of cheating during the debate, and the aide who delivered the message was fired from the campaign the next morning. Afterwards, media and observers were very critical of the gaffe.

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[19] Tossup October 14, 2010
Rothenberg[20] Tossup October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics[21] Tossup November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Lean R (flip) October 28, 2010
CQ Politics[23] Tossup October 28, 2010

Polling

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Democratic primary

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List of Democratic primary polling numbers
Poll source Dates administered Alex Sink Michael E. Arth
Mason Dixon[24] June 24–26, 2009 49% 4%

Republican primary

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List of Republican primary polling numbers
Poll source Dates administered Bill McCollum Rick Scott Paula Dockery
Quinnipiac[25] August 21–22, 2010 39% 35% –
Public Policy Polling[26] August 21–22, 2010 40% 47% –
Mason-Dixon[27] August 17–19, 2010 45% 36% –
Quinnipiac[28] August 11–16, 2010 44% 35% –
Sunshine State News[29] August 12–15, 2010 42% 44% –
Mason Dixon[30] August 9–11, 2010 34% 30% –
Ipsos/Florida Newspapers[31] August 6–10, 2010 32% 42% –
Mason Dixon[32] August 2–4, 2010 31% 37% –
The Florida Poll[33] July 24–28, 2010 25% 41% –
Quinnipiac[34] July 22–27, 2010 32% 43% –
Public Policy Polling[35] July 16–18, 2010 29% 43% –
Florida Chamber of Commerce[36] June 9–13, 2010 30% 35% –
Quinnipiac[37] June 2–8, 2010 31% 44% –
Mason-Dixon[38] May 3–5, 2010 38% 24% 7%
Research 2000[39] November 16–18, 2009 45% – 9%
Strategic Vision[40] May 29–31, 2009 44% – 28%

General election

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Polling for the 2010 Florida Gubernatorial Election
Poll source Dates administered Bud Chiles (I) Rick Scott (R) Alex Sink (D)
Mason-Dixon[38] May 3–5, 2010 — 36% 38%
Rasmussen Reports[41] May 16, 2010 — 41% 40%
Rasmussen Reports[42] June 7, 2010 — 45% 40%
Quinnipiac[43] June 7, 2010 13% 35% 26%
Florida Chamber of Commerce[36] June 9–13, 2010 15% 31% 26%
Ipsos/Reuters[44] July 9–11, 2010 12% 34% 31%
Public Policy Polling[45] July 16–18, 2010 13% 30% 36%
Quinnipiac[46] July 22–27, 2010 14% 29% 27%
The Florida Poll[33] July 24–28, 2010 11% 30% 28%
Rasmussen Reports[47] August 2, 2010 16% 35% 31%
Ipsos/Florida Newspapers[31] August 6–10, 2010 14% 30% 29%
Mason-Dixon[48] August 9–11, 2010 17% 24% 40%
Quinnipiac[49] August 11–16, 2010 12% 29% 33%
Public Policy Polling[50] August 21–22, 2010 8% 34% 41%
Rasmussen Reports[51] August 25, 2010 4% 45% 42%
Rasmussen Reports[52] September 1, 2010 — 45% 44%
Sunshine State News[53] September 1–7, 2010 42% 44%
CNN[54] September 2–7, 2010 42% 49%
FOX News[55] September 11, 2010 41% 49%
Reuters/Ipsos[56] September 12, 2010 45% 47%
Mason-Dixon[57] September 20–22, 2010 40% 47%
Rasmussen Reports[58] September 22, 2010 50% 44%
Quinnipiac[59] September 23–28, 2010 49% 43%
CNN[60] September 24–28, 2010 47% 45%
Sunshine State News[61] September 26 – October 3, 2010 44% 42%
TCPalm.com /Zogby[62] September 27–29, 2010 39% 41%
Florida Chamber of Commerce[63] September 27–30, 2010 46% 42%
Rasmussen Reports[64] September 30, 2010 46% 41%
Mason-Dixon[65] October 4–6, 2010 40% 44%
Miami-Dade College[66] October 5, 2010 52% 46%
Quinnipiac[67] October 6–8, 2010 45% 44%
Rasmussen Reports[64] October 7, 2010 50% 47%
PPP[68] October 9–10, 2010 41% 46%
Susquehanna[69] October 12–13, 2010 45% 48%
Suffolk[70] October 14–17, 2010 38% 45%
CNN Opinion Research[71] October 15–19, 2010 49% 46%
Ipsos/St. Pete Times[72] October 15–19, 2010 44% 41%
Rasmussen Reports[64] October 18, 2010 50% 44%
Naples Daily News /Zogby[73] October 18–21, 2010 39% 43%
Quinnipiac[74] October 18–24, 2010 41% 45%
Susquehanna[75] October 20, 2010 45% 45%
Susquehanna/Sunshine State News[76] October 24–25, 2010 47% 45%
Univ. of South Fla. Polytechnic[77] October 23–27, 2010 44% 39%
Quinnipiac[78] October 25–31, 2010 43% 44%
Mason-Dixon[79] October 26–27, 2010 43% 46%
Rasmussen Reports[64] October 27, 2010 48% 45%
Susquehanna/Sunshine State[80] October 29–31, 2010 46% 49%
Public Policy Polling[81] October 30–31, 2010 47% 48%

Hypothetical Polls

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Bill McCollum (R) vs. Alex Sink (D) vs. Bud Chiles (I)
Poll source Dates administered Bill McCollum Alex Sink Bud Chiles
Quinnipiac[49] August 11–16, 2010 29% 31% 12%
Mason-Dixon[48] August 9–11, 2010 35% 37% 13%
Ipsos/Florida Newspapers[31] August 6–10, 2010 26% 30% 12%
Rasmussen Reports[47] August 2, 2010 27% 31% 20%
The Florida Poll[33] July 24–28, 2010 26% 27% 12%
Quinnipiac[46] July 22–27, 2010 27% 26% 14%
Public Policy Polling[45] July 16–18, 2010 23% 37% 14%
Ipsos/Reuters[44] July 9–11, 2010 30% 31% 12%
Florida Chamber of Commerce[36] June 9–13, 2010 30% 26% 15%
Quinnipiac[43] June 7, 2010 33% 25% 19%
Rasmussen Reports[42] June 7, 2010 40% 38% —
Rasmussen Reports[41] May 16, 2010 43% 35% —
Mason-Dixon[38] May 7, 2010 45% 36% —
Rasmussen Reports[41] March 18, 2010 47% 36% —
Public Policy Polling[82] March 5–8, 2010 44% 31% —
Rasmussen Reports[41] February 18, 2010 48% 35% —
Fabrizo/McLaughlin & Associates[83] January 31, 2010 41% 32% —
Rasmussen Reports[41] January 27, 2010 46% 35% —
Quinnipiac[84] January 27, 2010 41% 31% <1%
Rasmussen Reports[85] December 14, 2009 44% 39% —
Research 2000[39] November 16–18, 2009 35% 33% —
St. Pete Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9[86] October 25–28, 2009 37% 38% —
Rasmussen Reports[87] October 20, 2009 46% 35% —
Quinnipiac[88] August 19, 2009 38% 34% 1%
Public Opinion Strategies[89] August 4–5, 2009 48% 37% —
Rasmussen Reports[90] June 22, 2009 42% 34% —
Quinnipiac[91] June 2–7, 2009 34% 38% 1%
Mason Dixon[92] May 14–18, 2009 40% 34% —
Mason Dixon[93] March 30 – April 1, 2009 36% 35% —

Results

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The 2010 governor's race was one of Florida's closest, decided by just over 60,000 votes. Unlike the concurrent Senate race, the governor's race remained in doubt late into the night. When polls closed, Scott had a lead, but as the night progressed, the margin narrowed. The next day, with over 99% of precincts reporting, Scott maintained about a 1% lead in the raw vote.[3] Despite a small number of still-uncounted ballots from Palm Beach County, Sink's chances of winning were negligible, as Scott was still ahead by over 50,000 – much more than the 3,000 uncounted ballots, and more importantly, still above the threshold of 0.5% to trigger a mandatory recount.[3] Sink conceded the day after the election.

Exit polls showed that Scott won among independents and the two candidates split the Hispanic vote.[3]

2010 Florida gubernatorial election[94]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Rick Scott 2,619,335 48.87% −3.31%
Democratic Alex Sink 2,557,785 47.72% +2.62%
Independence Peter Allen 123,831 2.31%
Independent C. C. Reed 18,842 0.35%
Independent Michael E. Arth 18,644 0.35%
Independent Daniel Imperato 13,690 0.26%
Independent Farid Khavari 7,487 0.14%
Write-ins 121 0.00%
Plurality 61,550 1.15% -5.92%
Turnout 5,359,735
Republican gain from Independent Swing

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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See also

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Notes

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References

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  1. ^ "November 2, 2010 General Election". Florida Department of State. Retrieved May 15, 2022.
  2. ^ Martinez resigned his seat in December 2008, and Crist appointed Republican George LeMieux to serve the remainder of Martinez's term. LeMieux declined to run for election, and Crist was one of three major candidates in the election for U.S. Senate.
  3. ^ a b c d e f "Money, message, mad electorate make Scott Fla. gov". The Washington Post. November 3, 2010. Retrieved October 21, 2014.
  4. ^ Derby, Kevin (September 2, 2010). "TEA Party Backs Rick Scott for Governor in November". Sunshine State News. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
  5. ^ Dockery, Paula (June 5, 2014). "Paula Dockery: Tea party stands by Rick Scott". Florida Today. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
  6. ^ "Exit Polls – Florida 2010 Governor". CNN. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
  7. ^ "Florida Democrats revel in gained ground". Tampa Bay Times. August 25, 2008. Archived from the original on October 13, 2012. Retrieved August 29, 2010.
  8. ^ Cotterell, Bill (January 16, 2009). "Alex Sink won't run for U.S. Senate in 2010". Tallahassee Democrat.
  9. ^ Kam, Dara (July 24, 2010). "Low-profile Alex Sink faces even more obscure opponent in Democratic race for Florida governor". Palm Beach Post. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
  10. ^ a b "Florida Gubernatorial Primary Results". Politico. August 24, 2010. Retrieved August 24, 2010.
  11. ^ "Florida governor announces run for Senate". CNN. May 12, 2009. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
  12. ^ Deslatte, Aaron (July 30, 2010). "Ruling lets Rick Scott spend all he wants in governor's race vs. Bill McCollum". The Orlando Sentinel. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
  13. ^ Deslatte, Aaron (August 25, 2010). "Rick Scott beats Bill McCollum to end nasty GOP governor's primary fight". The Orlando Sentinel. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
  14. ^ "Florida Election Candidate Tracking System entry for Imperato". Archived from the original on July 29, 2010. Retrieved June 23, 2010.
  15. ^ "Governor's Race: Rick, Scott, Alex Sink save harshest word for last debate". Orlando Sentinel,
  16. ^ Baribeau, Simone. "Florida Republican Scott Elected Governor After Record Spending". Bloomberg. Retrieved December 9, 2011.
  17. ^ Madison, Lucy (April 14, 2011). "Rick Scott Wins Tight Florida Governor Race". CBS News. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
  18. ^ "Aide fired over Florida debate foul". CNN. October 26, 2010. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
  19. ^ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  20. ^ "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  21. ^ "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  22. ^ "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  23. ^ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  24. ^ Mason Dixon
  25. ^ Quinnipiac
  26. ^ Public Policy Polling
  27. ^ Mason-Dixon
  28. ^ Quinnipiac
  29. ^ Sunshine State News
  30. ^ Mason Dixon
  31. ^ a b c Ipsos/Florida Newspapers [dead link‍]
  32. ^ Mason Dixon
  33. ^ a b c The Florida Poll Archived August 22, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
  34. ^ Quinnipiac
  35. ^ Public Policy Polling
  36. ^ a b c Florida Chamber of Commerce
  37. ^ Quinnipiac
  38. ^ a b c Mason-Dixon
  39. ^ a b Research 2000
  40. ^ Strategic Vision
  41. ^ a b c d e Rasmussen Reports
  42. ^ a b Rasmussen Reports
  43. ^ a b Quinnipiac
  44. ^ a b Ipsos/Reuters
  45. ^ a b Public Policy Polling
  46. ^ a b Quinnipiac
  47. ^ a b Rasmussen Reports
  48. ^ a b Mason-Dixon
  49. ^ a b Quinnipiac
  50. ^ Public Policy Polling
  51. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  52. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  53. ^ Sunshine State News
  54. ^ CNN Archived September 9, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
  55. ^ FOX News
  56. ^ Reuters/Ipsos
  57. ^ Mason-Dixon
  58. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  59. ^ Quinnipiac
  60. ^ CNN Archived September 30, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
  61. ^ Sunshine State News
  62. ^ TCPalm.com / Zogby
  63. ^ Florida Chamber of Commerce
  64. ^ a b c d Rasmussen Reports
  65. ^ Mason-Dixon
  66. ^ Miami-Dade College [permanent dead link‍]
  67. ^ Quinnipiac
  68. ^ PPP
  69. ^ Susquehanna
  70. ^ Suffolk Archived October 22, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
  71. ^ CNN Opinion Research
  72. ^ Ipsos/ St. Pete Times
  73. ^ Naples Daily News / Zogby
  74. ^ Quinnipiac
  75. ^ Susquehanna
  76. ^ Susquehanna/ Sunshine State News
  77. ^ Univ. of South Fla. Polytechnic Archived November 3, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
  78. ^ Quinnipiac
  79. ^ Mason-Dixon
  80. ^ Susquehanna/ Sunshine State
  81. ^ Public Policy Polling
  82. ^ Public Policy Polling
  83. ^ Fabrizo/McLaughlin
  84. ^ Quinnipiac
  85. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  86. ^ St. Pete Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9
  87. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  88. ^ Quinnipiac
  89. ^ Public Opinion Strategies
  90. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  91. ^ Quinnipiac
  92. ^ Mason Dixon
  93. ^ Mason Dixon
  94. ^ "Florida Department of State - Election Results". doe.dos.state.fl.us. Archived from the original on October 3, 2011.
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Official campaign websites (Archived)

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