Wikipedia

2024 Syrian opposition offensives

(Redirected from Deterrence of Aggression)

On 27 November 2024, a coalition of Syrian opposition groups called the Military Operations Command[40] led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and supported by allied Turkish-backed groups[41][42][43] in the Syrian National Army (SNA) launched an offensive against the pro-government Syrian Arab Army (SAA) forces in Idlib, Aleppo and Hama Governorates in Syria. The operation was codenamed Deterrence of Aggression[note 2] by HTS and stated as being launched in retaliation for the increased SAA shelling of civilians in the Western Aleppo countryside.[44] This is the first time that opposition forces in the Syrian civil war launched a military offensive campaign since the March 2020 Idlib ceasefire.[45][46]

2024 Syrian opposition offensives
Part of the Syrian civil war

Map of offensives in Syria
  Controlled by the Syrian Arab Republic
  Controlled by the Syrian opposition
  Controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces
  Controlled by the Israel Defense Forces
Date27 November – 8 December 2024
(1 week and 4 days)
Location
Syria
Result

Syrian opposition victory

Territorial
changes
Belligerents

Syrian opposition Syrian Free Army

Southern Operations Room
Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria[5]  Islamic State[6][7]
Commanders and leaders

Syrian opposition Salem Turki al-Antri

Ahmad al-Awda
Mazloum Abdi Islamic State Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi
Units involved

Military Operations Command

Syrian opposition Syrian National Army

Syrian opposition Syrian Free Army
Ajnad al-Kavkaz[18]
Liwa al-Muhajireen wal-Ansar[18]
Turkistan Islamic Party in Syria[19]
Southern Front
Druze Al-Jabal Brigade

 Syrian Armed Forces

 Russian Armed Forces

 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

Syrian Democratic Forces

Islamic State Military of the Islamic State

Strength
100,000 (2021)[30][discuss] Unclear
Casualties and losses
 Syria 220 killed,[32] 21 captured[34][35]
25 pro-Iranian militiamen killed[32]
Iran 1 killed[31][36]
Russia 1+ killed		 3 killed, several captured[37][22] Islamic State 11 arrested[38]
111 civilians killed[note 1]
370,000 civilians displaced[39]

On 29 November 2024, HTS and later the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) entered Aleppo and captured most of the city, amid the collapse of pro-government forces. The next day, opposition forces made rapid advances, capturing dozens of towns and villages as pro-government forces disintegrated, and advanced toward Hama in central Syria, subsequently capturing it on 5 December.[47][48] By 6 December, the SDF captured Deir ez-Zor in an offensive east of the Euphrates, while the newly formed Southern Operations Room and Al-Jabal Brigade captured Daraa and Suwayda in an offensive in the south. The HTS advanced further south toward Homs.[49][50] The US-backed Syrian Free Army (SFA) took control of Palmyra in the southeast of the country.[51]

On 7 December 2024, Southern Front forces entered the Rif Dimashq Governorate from the south, and came within 10 kilometers of the capital Damascus.[52][53] Later, opposition forces were reported to have entered the suburbs of the capital.[54] SFA forces moved towards the capital from the south east.[55][better source needed] By 8 December, they had captured Homs, which effectively cut Assad's forces from Syria's coast.[56]

On 8 December 2024, rebels captured the capital Damascus, toppling Bashar al-Assad's government and ending the Assad family's 53-year long rule over the country.[57]

Background

Main articles: Northwestern Syria clashes (December 2022–November 2024) and Turkish military operation in Idlib Governorate

Since the March 2020 Idlib ceasefire agreement, large scale operations ceased between opposition and pro-government forces in Northwestern Syria.[58][10] However, opposition groups based in northwestern Syria prepared for a resumption of hostilities, with HTS in particular strengthening its military capabilities by reforming its structures into a "conventional armed force", improving training, and setting up special forces specializing in raids and night-time operations.[10] According to the Kyiv Post, some Islamist social media accounts said that the Idlib-based rebels received some training and other support by Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence.[59] Meanwhile, the Syrian government suffered from growing corruption, with researcher Charles Lister describing it as the "world's biggest narco state" whose "corrupt business elite and a powerful network of military commanders, militia leaders and warlords" were held together by drug trade revenue, especially trade of Captagon.[10] Starting in late 2022, HTS forces launched a series of infiltration and sniper attacks on government forces, leading up to the offensive. In retaliation, there was shelling of Idlib Governorate as well as Russian air strikes.[60] Aleppo had been controlled by Bashar al-Assad's government and Iranian-backed militias since the Aleppo offensive in 2016.[58][10]

In October 2024, a large mobilization by HTS and government forces was initiated in the Aleppo countryside, as the Syrian rebels reported that they have been preparing for months for a large-scale offensive against government forces within the city of Aleppo.[61] On 26 November 2024, government forces artillery struck the opposition held town of Ariha, killing and injuring 16 civilians.[62]

Offensive

On 27 November 2024, HTS announced that it had launched an offensive dubbed "Deterrence of Aggression" toward pro-government forces in western Aleppo Governorate.[63] The offensive was a response to recent artillery shelling by the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad against rebel-held Idlib, which killed at least 30 civilians.[46][58]

Opening advances

During the first ten hours of the offensive, HTS captured 20 towns and villages from pro-government forces, including the towns of Urm al-Kubra, Anjara, Urum al-Sughra, Sheikh Aqil, Bara, Ajil, Awijil, al-Hawtah, Tal al-Dabaa, Hayr Darkal, Qubtan al-Jabal, al-Saloum, al-Qasimiyah, Kafr Basin, Hawr, Anaz and Basratoun. In addition, the 46th regiment base of government forces was besieged by the HTS and captured a few hours later.[2][12] The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that 37 Syrian government soldiers and allied militias and 60 fighters from the opposition forces were killed in the clashes.[46] A Russian special forces unit was ambushed by rebels, who later posted photos of a dead Russian soldier and captured equipment. In response, Syrian and Russian forces launched aerial assaults on areas controlled by rebel groups.[64] Russian fighters also conducted airstrikes around Atarib, Darat Izza, and surrounding villages, while government forces shelled rebel-controlled Idlib, Ariha, Sarmada and other areas in southern Idlib Governorate.[65][66][67]

On 28 November, HTS launched an offensive on the eastern Idlib countryside, capturing the villages of Dadikh, Kafr Batikh and Sheikh Ali as well as a neighborhood in the city of Saraqib. This advance brought them within two kilometers of the M5 highway, a strategic route that had been secured by pro-government forces in 2020. HTS also attacked al-Nayrab's airport located east of Aleppo, where Iranian-backed militants have a presence.[68] In the latter half of the day, HTS captured the villages of Kafr Basin, Arnaz and Al-Zarba in the western Aleppo countryside, and cut off the M5 highway.[69] The Syrian rebels had captured around 40 towns and villages in total by the end of the day.[58]

A Russian airstrike killed fifteen civilians in Atarib in the western Aleppo countryside. Four others were killed in either a Syrian or Russian airstrike in Darat Izza.[70] Iranian state media reported that Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Brigadier General Kioumars Pourhashemi, who served as a senior military advisor in Syria, was killed by rebels in Aleppo.[58] An SDF fighter was killed by Turkish drone strike in the north of Raqqah Governorate.[71]

On 29 November, HTS captured the villages of Tal Karatabeen, Abu Qansa, and Al-Talhiya in Idlib countryside and Al-Mansoura, Jab Kas, and Al-Bawabiya in Aleppo countryside. Strong fighting around the town of Saraqib continued.[72] By this point, other Idlib-based Islamist groups were backing the HTS advance, including Ajnad al-Kavkaz, and Liwa al-Muhajireen wal-Ansar.[18] Four civilians were killed and two others were injured by HTS shelling in the al-Hamdaniya neighborhood of Aleppo city.[72] An attack by the SDF was carried near Al-Bab with 15 SNA fighters dying.[73] Seven SNA fighters were killed in a Russian airstrike on a SNA military headquarters in Mare'.[74] Four civilians were also killed in separate Russian airstrikes in Idlib.[75]

Battle of Aleppo

Main article: Battle of Aleppo (2024)

On 29 November, opposition forces launched a large-scale offensive in Aleppo Governorate aimed at capturing the city of Aleppo and surrounding areas.[76]

That day, rebels entered the Hamdaniya and New Aleppo districts of Aleppo city, after carrying out a double suicide attack with two car bombs.[76] HTS-led forces captured five city districts, subsequently reaching the main square and captured parts of four other districts.[77][78][79]

In Idlib and Aleppo governorates, rebels captured 50 towns and villages, including the town of Saraqib, Abu al-Duhur and Maarat al-Numan amid the collapse of pro-government forces' defense lines. Pro-government forces retreated from most of the Idlib Governorate, with the exception of Khan Shaykhun and Kafranbel. In Aleppo region, pro-government forces withdrew to Aleppo airport, Maskanah, As Safirah and Khanaser road.[77][5][80]

An airstrike, reportedly of Russian origin, killed 16 civilians and injured 20 others in Aleppo city.[81]

Government withdrawal and SDF advances

In the early hours of 30 November, rebel forces captured the Citadel of Aleppo, the government headquarters in the city, as well as "more than half of Aleppo city".[82][83] By morning, rebel forces had seized control of most of Aleppo, forcing pro-government troops to retreat toward as-Safirah.[84]

On 30 November 2024, amid the collapse of pro-government forces in Northwestern Syria, the Kurdish majority Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) entered the towns of Dayr Hafir, Tell Aran, Tell Hasel, and the Shaykh Najjar district of Aleppo city, taking over from pro-government forces.[85][5] In the afternoon, the SDF captured Aleppo International Airport and the towns of Nubbul and Al-Zahraa, following the withdrawal of pro-government forces.[86] Clashes between Turkish backed rebels and the SDF were reported in Tell Abyad region in northern Raqqa Governorate.[73][87]

Concurrently on 30 November, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army located in the Euphrates Shield region of Turkish occupied northern Syria announced the start of Operation Dawn of Freedom with the objective of cutting off SDF's supply networks and establishing a corridor connecting al-Bab to Tell Rifaat. SNA forces captured the town of Tadef from pro-government forces during their advances as pro-government forces began withdrawing from the region.[88][89]

Pro-government forces left a substantial amount of military equipment behind during their retreat from Aleppo governorate, including two T-90A tanks, an entire S-125 Neva system battery, a Pantsir-S1 system and a Buk-M2. Rebels also captured helicopters and fighter jets at the Aleppo and Menagh air bases.[90]

Advances towards Hama

Main article: 2024 Hama offensive
 
Map of the offensive

On the evening of 30 November 2024, HTS-led opposition forces rapidly advanced in the Hama Governorate, and captured dozens of towns and villages in the countryside.[91] In Aleppo region, rebels reportedly took control of Aleppo airport after the local SDF troops opted to withdraw.[47] At 7 PM (Local Syrian time, UTC+3:00) HTS forces started closing in on Hama,[92] capturing at least six villages.[93]

In the early hours of 1 December, pro-government forces established new military positions on the outskirts of Hama and its northern countryside. Reinforcements were deployed to Jabal Zayn al-Abidin and the towns of Taybat al Imam, Qamhana, and Khitab.[94] Russia launched airstrikes on towns recently captured by rebels in the Idlib and Hama regions.[95] In Idlib city, a Russian airstrike targeting a refugee camp killed nine civilians and injured 62 others. A separate Russian airstrike targeting Aleppo university hospital killed eight civilians.[96]

By the afternoon, the SNA had captured the towns of as-Safirah, Khanasir, and the Kuweires airbase, while clashes occurred between SNA and SDF in the Sheikh Najjar district of Aleppo city. Concurrently HTS captured the thermal power plant, field artillery college, and the military academy on the outskirts of Aleppo.[97]

On the evening of 1 December, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) launched an offensive on the SDF-held town of Tell Rifaat, capturing the town along with several surrounding villages. The remaining SDF-controlled towns in the region were cut off from communication after being encircled by opposition forces.[98]

On 2 December, the SDF announced plans to evacuate Kurdish IDPs from Tel Rifaat and the Shahba Canton to SDF-held areas in Aleppo's Sheikh Maqsood district and northeastern Syria.[99][100] During the day, Russia launched airstrikes on the towns recently captured by the rebels, while a separate Russian airstrike targeting Idlib city killed 11 civilians.[101][102] A rebel drone strike targeting a gathering of pro-government military leaders near Jabal Zayn al-Abidin, north of Hama, caused multiple deaths and injuries among their ranks.[103]

By the afternoon, clashes between opposition and pro-government forces intensified in Hama Governorate, particularly near the towns of Karnaz and Suran. In the eastern Hama countryside, opposition forces made advances, capturing the town of Qasr Abu Samrah.[104] In the evening, the heaviest clashes since the start of the offensive took place between opposition and pro-government forces in northern Hama region, with Russian and government aircraft carrying out more than 45 airstrikes. Opposition forces took control of several villages, while pro-government forces were able to thwart attempts to advance on Qalaat al-Madiq.[105][106] Opposition forces' rocket shelling of Hama city killed eight civilians.[107]

Hama offensive

On 3 December, opposition forces continued their advance on the pro-government forces in Hama region, capturing the towns of Taybat al-Imam, Halfaya, Soran, and Maardis.[108] In the eastern Aleppo countryside, heavy clashes occurred between SNA and pro-government forces in Khanasir as the latter tried to recapture the town.[109] Fighting intensified in the evening between opposition and pro-government forces, as the rebels took control of more than 10 towns and villages and reached the outskirts of Hama.[110] At least 17 SAA soldiers and eight HTS fighters were killed in the clashes north of Hama. Two civilians were also killed by HTS shelling in the city.[111]

On 4 December, pro-government forces launched a counter attack on the northern outskirts of Hama, and recaptured the villages of Kafr'a and Maar Shuhur.[112] In the western Hama countryside, opposition groups launched an offensive in the Ghab Plain, which serves as a gateway to the coast region of Syria where the majority of the Alawite population lives. Opposition forces captured the village of al-Ghab al-Awsat, while pro-government forces successfully defended Al-Karim.[113] Anas Alkharboutli, a photographer working for DPA, was killed in an airstrike in Morek, near Hama.[114]

By the evening, opposition forces had cut off the roads connecting Hama to Raqqa and Aleppo and took control of several villages in the eastern Hama country side.[115] Heavy clashes continued into the night with the rebels capturing the towns of Khitab and Mubarakat, while fighting persisted in Jabal Zayn al-Abidin.[116]

On 5 December, opposition forces entered the northeastern part of Hama city amid pro-government airstrikes on its eastern side[117] and by the afternoon, HTS-led rebels had established full control over the city, as pro-government forces withdrew.[48] In a statement, the Syrian government reasoned its withdrawal from Hama city in concurrence with "preserving the lives of civilians".[118][119]

Following the fall of Hama, Hezbollah announced it was sending fighters across the border toward Hama and Homs to support government forces.[4][120][32]

Capture of Homs

Main article: 2024 Homs offensive

On 5 December 2024, pro-government forces withdrew from the cities of Salamiyah and Talbiseh towards the city of Homs, hours after their withdrawal from Hama as rebels approached the former town's outskirts.[121] In the evening, opposition forces entered Salamiyah without fighting, after reaching an agreement with the city's elders and its religious Ismaili council.[122] By the evening opposition forces had reached the outskirts of Al-Rastan and captured a pro-government military base north of it. Concurrently with the opposition advance, Russian aircraft bombed the main bridge connecting Homs and Hama, in an attempt to slow the rebel advance.[123]

On 6 December 2024, opposition forces captured five towns, and approached the outskirts of Homs, as pro-government forces withdrew from more territory.[124][125][126] In the eastern Deir ez-Zor Governorate, pro-government forces began withdrawing from the towns of Deir ez-Zor, Mayadin, Al-Quriyah and Abu Kamal, towards the capital Damascus.[127] By the afternoon, pro-government forces had reportedly completely withdrawn from Homs towards the city of Latakia, with only local pro-government gunmen remaining in the Shia majority neighborhoods of the city.[50] The Syrian Defense Ministry denied reports that it had given orders to fully evacuate Homs city.[128]

Iran began withdrawing its personnel from Syria in the early hours of 6 December, pulling out top commanders of the IRGC's Quds Force and ordering evacuations at the Iranian Embassy in Damascus and at IRGC bases across Syria. Evacuating Iranians headed towards Lebanon and Iraq.[129][130]

On 7/8 December, it was confirmed that Syrian forces withdrew from Homs, with rebels afterwards shown to be celebrating in the city.[56] This effectively cut Assad's forces, including those based from Damascus, from Syria's west coast, which houses the country's Russian bases.[131]

Capture of Daraa, Suwayda, Deir ez-Zor and Palmyra

Main articles: Southern Syria offensive (2024), Deir ez-Zor offensive (2024), and Palmyra offensive (2024)

In the evening of 6 December 2024, Southern Front forces captured the regional capital of Suwayda, in southern Syria, following the pro-government forces' withdrawal from the city.[132][133] Concurrently, SDF captured the provincial capital of Deir ez-Zor from pro-government forces, which also left the town of Palmyra in central Homs Governorate.[134][135] By midnight, opposition forces in the southern Daraa Governorate captured its capital Daraa, as well as 90% of the province, as pro-government forces withdrew towards the capital Damascus.[49] Meanwhile, the Syrian Free Army, a different rebel group backed by the United States took control of Palmyra in an offensive launched from the al-Tanf "deconfliction zone".[136]

On 7 December 2024, pro-government forces withdrew from the Quneitra Governorate, which borders the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.[137] That day, the Israeli army helped the UNDOF repel an attack.[138]

Fall of Damascus

Main article: Fall of Damascus

On 7 December 2024, opposition forces entered the Rif Dimashq Governorate from the south, and came within 20 kilometres (12 mi) of the capital Damascus.[52] Concurrently with the advance towards Damascus, opposition forces in the north launched an offensive into Homs city.[139] In the Rif Dimashq region, pro-government forces withdrew from the towns of Assal al-Ward, Yabroud, Flitah, Al-Naseriyah and Artouz, while rebels came within 10 kilometres (6.2 mi) of Damascus.[53] By the evening, pro-government forces had left the towns on the outskirts of Damascus, including Jaramana, Qatana, Muadamiyat al-Sham, Darayya, Al-Kiswah, Al-Dumayr and sites near the Mezzeh Air Base.[140] Rebel forces were later reported to have reached the suburbs of Damascus.[54]

In the early hours of 8 December 2024, opposition groups in the north captured Homs, and began advancing towards Damascus.[141] It was also reported that rebels managed to enter the Damascus neighborhood of Barzeh.[142] On that day, the Syrian Army command informed its officers that Assad's government had ended,[143] and Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali announced that he was ready "to cooperate with any leadership chosen by the people".[144]

Closing offensives

After the capture of Damascus by the Southern Operations Room, Latakia and Tartus were the last two regional capitals held by the Syrian Arab Republic. Anti-regime protests broke out in Latakia and later in Tartus, as demonstrators began to tear down posters and topple statues of Hafez al-Assad.[145] On 8 December, the HTS began advancing on both cities, capturing them without a battle.[146][147]

Reactions

See also: Reactions to the fall of the Assad regime

Domestic

  •   Syrian Arab Republic: The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) described the offensive as "a huge and large-scale terrorist attack" in which "large numbers of terrorists using medium and heavy weapons" targeted villages, towns, and military sites.[68] On 30 November, the Syrian government announced a "temporary troop withdrawal" from Aleppo.[148] On 30 November, a pro-government commentator on Syrian state TV said that "reinforcements and Russia's assistance would repel the terrorist groups" and blamed Turkey for supporting the insurgents' push into Aleppo and Idlib provinces.[149] In a phone call with Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian, President Bashar al-Assad said the offensive was aimed at "dividing the region and fragmenting the countries in it and redraw the map in line with the objectives of the United States and the West".[150]
  •   Syrian opposition: Hassan Abdelghani, spokesperson for the Syrian rebel coalition, stated that the targets of the operation are Assad's forces, Russian Army and Iranian militias, whom he accused of bringing "devastation, death, and killing to the region" while "exploiting Arab and Muslim populations" to push their "sabotaging plans" under "the guise of resistance".[58]
  •   Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria: The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) announced a general mobilization in response to rebel advances in Aleppo and released a statement condemning the resurgence of violence, which it blamed on the Syrian government and Turkish occupation.[151][152]

International

  •   EU: Kaja Kallas, Vice President of the European Commission, congratulated the rebels for toppling the Assad regime, noting it "a historic moment", and vowed to keep supporting the aspiration of Syrian people.[153]
  •   Iran: Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described the offensive as "a plot orchestrated by the U.S. and the Zionist regime following the regime's defeat in Lebanon and Palestine".[154] Mojtaba Damirchiloo, Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran and Director General of the Eurasia Department also claimed Ukraine was supplying rebels.[155] After the toppling of the Assad regime, government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani called for "respect for Syria's territorial integrity" and further stated rhat the Syrian people should decide their own fate.[156]
  •   Russia: Presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov called the offensive "a violation of Syria's sovereignty in this region".[154] Russia also blamed Ukraine for the involvement.[157]
  •   Turkey: The foreign ministry called for an end to the airstrikes on Idlib and demanded that "greater instability is avoided and civilians are not harmed".[158] President Recep Tayyip Erdogan criticised Assad for refusing his offers of negotiations and claimed "the target, of course, is Damascus. The opposition's march continues. Our wish is that this march in Syria continues without accidents."[159]
  •   Ukraine: Ukraine issued a statement blaming Russia and Iran as well as the actions of the Assad government in refusing internal dialogue for the destabilisation of Syria. Ukraine also denied accusations by Iran and Russia that it was supporting rebels in the offensive.[155][157]
  •   United States: White House National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett released a statement stating "The United States has nothing to do with this offensive, which is led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a designated terrorist organization".[160] President-elect Donald Trump responded to the offensives by stating the US should not intervene, remarking "this is not our fight" and to "let it play out".[161][162]
Organizations

Involvement of other countries

Russia

Russia has conducted joint airstrikes with the Syrian Arab Army against the rebels.[163] Starting 2 December, Russian warships began leaving the Tartus naval base.[164]

Iran

Iran said it "firmly" supported the Syrian government.[165] Prior to the rebel capture of Aleppo, Iranian General Kioumars Pourhashemi was killed by the rebels during clashes.[166] On 5 December, Iranian General Javad Ghafari arrived in Syria to help the Syrian government. By 7 December, Iran had withdrawn some military and diplomatic personnel from Syria.[167] Government spokesperson Mohajerani said that 4,000 Iranian citizens had returned home from Syria on board 10 flights organized by Iranian airline Mahan Air.[168]

Israel

See also: 2024 Israeli invasion of Syria
 
Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and Israeli invasion of Syria in 2024

Israel conducted airstrikes on Hezbollah weapons depots inside Syria, after Hezbollah pledged backing for Assad and claimed to have sent "supervising forces".[169] Israel also bombed Hezbollah positions in al-Qusayr, preventing them from reinforcing Syrian government forces in Homs.[170] Israel warned Iran against sending support to the Assad government and prevented Iranian planes from landing in Damascus.[171] Israel also bombed Syrian government weapons depots believed to contain chemical weapons to prevent them from falling into another party's hands.[172]

As the Southern Operations Room seized control of southern Syria, the IDF announced the deployment of additional air force and army units to the Golan Heights.[173]

Turkey

See also: Turkish involvement in the Syrian civil war
 
Manbij offensive on 6–9 December 2024

The Guardian reported "It is widely assumed Turkey broadly approved of the HTS-led offensive in advance but Turkey denies this."[174] During a meeting in Doha between Sergey Lavrov, Abbas Araghchi and Hakan Fidan, the Russian and Iranian foreign ministers both tacitly blamed Turkey for the downfall of Assad regime.[175]

Despite the collapse of the Assad regime, Turkey and Turkish-backed SNA fighters in northern Syria continued to attack U.S.-backed SDF forces.[176][177] On 9 December, SNA fighters captured the city of Manbij.[178]

Ukraine

Ukraine is known to have provided training and equipment to the Syrian opposition in the preparation of offensive. The Ukrainian HUR is also alleged to have dispatched advisors to the rebels to coordinate this offensive[179] as well as intelligence and material support to opposition forces including HTS.[180][181]

Analysis

See also: Middle Eastern crisis (2023–present)

Hezbollah, which was a "major ally" of the Syrian government during the civil war, was severely weakened during its war with Israel since October 2023. The deaths of Hassan Nasrallah and much of its military leadership, combined with the redeployment of Hezbollah fighters in Syria back to Lebanon, left a large power vacuum. With the Russian military concentrating on its invasion of Ukraine and Iran under significant pressure, it provided an opportunity for rebel groups to launch an offensive.[58]

According to Nick Heras, an analyst with the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, the rebels were trying to pre-empt a Syrian government offensive which was being shaped by Russian and Syrian airstrikes on rebel areas. The presence of Turkish-backed groups in the offensive was believed to be a warning from Turkey to Russia and the Syrian government to avoid any offensives in the region.[182]

Prior to the fall of the Assad government, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed that if this were to occur, it would damage the global perception of Russia as an effective partner and protector which together with the loss of bases in Syria which are the primary logistical hubs for shipments from Russia sent to Libya and eventually sub-Saharan Africa would undermine Russia's goals of expanding its influence in Africa. Tartus base is Russia's only formal overseas naval base and links Russia's Black Sea assets to the Mediterranean and is central for future expansion plans in the Mediterranean and Red Seas, which would threaten NATO's southern flank. The ISW analysed that the Africa Corps, while the easiest to deploy to Syria, lacks the numbers to make a difference and its limited forces are already overstretched across Africa or recalled to fight in Kursk to repel the Ukrainian incursion into Russia.[183]

According to analysts, Syrian government defeats can largely be attributed to its confidence in an ultimate victory over the rebels and the lack of effort it has put in strengthening its military ranks over the four years since the Idlib ceasefire in 2020. Pointing to the prevalence of unwilling and poorly paid young conscripts in the army, observers noted that Iran would be hesitant to provide Assad with needed ground support.[184] Analysts have also said that Russia sees little purpose to intervene more forcefully against the rebels, beyond some limited airstrikes, given the perceived ineffectiveness of Assad's forces.[185]

Russian analysts generally blamed Al-Assad for losing the war. Speaking to Komsomolskaya Pravda, Semyon Bagdasarov argued that the Syrian government failed to motivate its troops and to unite the various Syrian ethnic and religious group around its cause.[186] Similarly, political scientist Andrey Kortunov wrote that Al-Asad had failed to unite Syrians and achieve national reconciliation, comparing him to former Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, who was overthrown by the Taliban in 2021.[187] Journalist Vitaly Ryumshin shared this comparison, but partially defended the Syrian government, arguing that the lack of reform was due to economic sanctions on the country and loss of control over the oil's resources to the United States and the Kurds.[188] In a different view, Anton Mardasov, a Russian expert on the Middle East, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that the government's collapse was not due to Western sanctions but because of Al-Assad's failure to deal with the country's problems, specifically mentioning the economic crisis, endemic corruption and nepotism and "the loss of touch with reality and thinking in the paradigm of 50 years ago".[189]

According to The Sunday Telegraph, the collapse of Al-Assad regime has tremendous repercussions for both Russia and Iran, due to their investment on the survival of Al-Assad regime; with Iran's so-called Axis of Resistance effectively collapsed with the loss of Al-Assad rule in Syria, undermining Iran's ability to supply Hezbollah; while Russia's quagmire in Ukraine cost Putin Syria and exposed Putin's increasing inflexibility and struggle to keep Russia's allies in Africa (Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger) afloat.[190][191][192] Additionally, the catastrophic collapse of Assad regime is believed to have a consequence on how Putin will handle the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as his options have been narrowed following the shock defeat Russia suffered in Syria; while Russia's defeat in Syria also poses a major challenge on Russia's ability to support their allies in Latin America and Africa following the collapse of Assad regime.[193][194]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ 95 killed by Russian and SAA air and artillery strikes and 13 killed by HTS shelling.[32]
  2. ^ Arabic: ردع العدوان, romanized: Rade Aleudwan

References

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  2. ^ a b "Weeks after the Syrian Observatory published the preparations... "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham" attacks the Aleppo countryside in the "Response to Aggression" operation" (in Arabic). Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. 27 November 2024. Retrieved 27 November 2024.
  3. ^ "Coinciding with the Authority's attack on the regime forces' positions in the Aleppo countryside... a squadron of Russian aircraft flies in the "Putin-Erdogan" airspace" (in Arabic). Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. 27 November 2024. Retrieved 27 November 2024.
  4. ^ a b George, Susannah (4 December 2024). "Iran is sending regional fighters to Syria. Can they save Assad again?". The Washington Post. Retrieved 5 December 2024.
  5. ^ a b c "On the fourth day of the "Deterrence of Aggression" operation: Regime forces collapse and are stationed in 3 cities south of Idlib and centers in areas east and south of Aleppo city" (in Arabic). SOHR. 30 November 2024. Retrieved 30 November 2024.
  6. ^ "Head of US-backed Syrian Kurdish force says ISIS has taken areas in east Syria". Al Arabiya English. 6 December 2024. Retrieved 7 December 2024.
  7. ^ Burke, Jason (9 December 2024). "Who are the main actors in the fall of the regime in Syria?". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 10 December 2024.
  8. ^ "Ejército de Siria inicia contraofensiva contra terroristas - Noticias Prensa Latina". 29 November 2024.
  9. ^ "IRGC commander killed by rebels in Aleppo amid clashes". Rudaw Media Network. 28 November 2024.
  10. ^ a b c d e f Lister, Charles (30 November 2024). "Syria's conflict is heating up once more". Spectator. Retrieved 30 November 2024.
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