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2022 Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction election

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The 2022 Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the Superintendent of Public Instruction of Arizona. Incumbent Democratic Superintendent Kathy Hoffman was defeated in her run for a second term by former Republican Attorney General Tom Horne.[1] Significantly, Horne's win marked the first time in the state's history that a Republican won a statewide race without winning Maricopa County, home to 62% of the state's population and a former Republican stronghold; the only other statewide 2022 Republican candidate to win that year, Kimberly Yee, won her race by a wide margin partly by carrying Maricopa County.

2022 Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction election
← 2018 November 8, 2022 2026 →
 
Nominee Tom Horne Kathy Hoffman
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,256,406 1,247,218
Percentage 50.17% 49.82%
Horne:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Hoffman:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Superintendent before election

Kathy Hoffman
Democratic

Elected Superintendent

Tom Horne
Republican

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Results

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Democratic primary results[2]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Kathy Hoffman (incumbent) 564,099 100.0%
Total votes 564,099 100.0%

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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Did not file

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  • Michael Trevillion, assistant principal[6][7]

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Tom
Horne 		Shiry
Sapir 		Michelle
Udall 		Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports[8] July 27–28, 2022 710 (LV) ± 4.0% 38% 18% 16% 6% 22%
OH Predictive Insights[9] July 27, 2022 502 (LV) ± 4.4% 21% 21% 14% – 44%
OH Predictive Insights[10] June 30 – July 2, 2022 515 (LV) ± 4.3% 18% 7% 9% – 66%
OH Predictive Insights[11] April 4–5, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 16% 2% 8% 7%[b] 67%

Results

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Republican primary results[2]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Tom Horne 321,208 41.92%
Republican Shiry Sapir 256,286 33.45%
Republican Michelle Udall 188,401 24.59%
Write-in 258 0.03%
Total votes 766,153 100.0%

Libertarian primary

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Candidates

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Eliminated in primary

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Results

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Libertarian primary results[2]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Sheila Reid-Shaver (write-in) 557 100.0%
Total votes 557 100.0%

General election

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Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kathy
Hoffman (D) 		Tom
Horne (R) 		Other Undecided
Data Orbital (R)[13] November 4–6, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.3% 44% 49% 2%[c] 6%
HighGround Inc.[14] November 1–2, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 41% 46% 1%[d] 12%
Data Orbital (R)[15] October 17–19, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.3% 43% 45% 2%[e] 10%
HighGround Inc.[16] October 12–13, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 40% 43% 2%[f] 14%

Certified results

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2022 Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction election[17]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Tom Horne 1,255,977 50.17% +1.73%
Democratic Kathy Hoffman (incumbent) 1,247,010 49.82% −1.74%
Republican Patrick Finerd (write-in) 213 0.01% N/A
Total votes 2,503,200 100.0%

Recount

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On December 5, 2022, following election certification, Secretary of State Katie Hobbs petitioned the Maricopa County Superior Court to initiate a recount for the Superintendent of Public Instruction election.[18][19] On the same day, Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Timothy J. Thomason ordered for the recount to begin.[20] Although Hoffman had already conceded the election, the recount proceeded as the margin between the two candidates was 0.35%, which falls in the threshold to trigger an automatic recount.[17]

On December 29, Thomason announced the results of the recount, confirming Horne as the winner with an increased margin of 9,188 votes.[21]

Recount results

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2022 Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction election[22]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Tom Horne 1,256,406 50.13% +1.69%
Democratic Kathy Hoffman (incumbent) 1,247,218 49.76% −1.80%
Write-in 2,900 0.12% +0.12%
Total votes 2,506,524 100.0%
Republican gain from Democratic

By congressional district

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Despite losing the state, Hoffman won 5 out of 9 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.[23]

District Hoffman Horne Representative
1st 51% 49% David Schweikert
2nd 45% 55% Tom O'Halleran (117th Congress)
Eli Crane (118th Congress)
3rd 76% 24% Ruben Gallego
4th 56% 44% Greg Stanton
5th 43% 57% Andy Biggs
6th 51% 49% Ann Kirkpatrick (117th Congress)
Juan Ciscomani (118th Congress)
7th 66% 34% Raúl Grijalva
8th 44% 56% Debbie Lesko
9th 36% 64% Paul Gosar

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Kim Fisher with 4%, Kara Woods with 3%, Jennie Paperman with 0%
  3. ^ "Refused" with 2%
  4. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
  5. ^ "Refused" with 2%
  6. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%

References

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  1. ^ a b "Superintendent Kathy Hoffman announces re-election campaign". AZFamily. Retrieved May 13, 2021.
  2. ^ a b c Arizona Secretary of State (August 22, 2022). "State of Arizona Official Canvass – August 2, 2022, Primary Election" (PDF). Retrieved August 26, 2022.
  3. ^ Pitzl, Mary Jo (May 13, 2021). "Tom Horne seeks return as state schools chief, citing slipping standards amid equity debate". The Arizona Republic.
  4. ^ "Local Conservatives to Host Shiry Sapir, Candidate for State Superintendent of Public Instruction | Prescott eNews". September 23, 2021.
  5. ^ "Udall takes step in run for schools chief". October 9, 2021.
  6. ^ Pitzl, Mary Jo. "School administrator seeks GOP nod for state superintendent". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved May 13, 2021.
  7. ^ "HOME | Dr. Michael Trevillion for Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction". Trevillion 4 AZ Supt. Retrieved May 13, 2021.
  8. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  9. ^ OH Predictive Insights
  10. ^ OH Predictive Insights
  11. ^ OH Predictive Insights
  12. ^ "2022 Primary Election". apps.azsos.gov. Retrieved July 25, 2022.
  13. ^ Data Orbital (R)
  14. ^ HighGround Inc.
  15. ^ Data Orbital (R)
  16. ^ HighGround Inc.
  17. ^ a b "2022 General Election Statewide Canvass" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved December 5, 2022.
  18. ^ "Petition for Automatic Recount" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved December 5, 2022.
  19. ^ "Arizona Sec. of State Katie Hobbs gets recount process started for 3 races". KTAR News. December 5, 2022. Retrieved December 7, 2022.
  20. ^ "Order to Conduct Recount" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved December 5, 2022.
  21. ^ "CV2022-015915: Order Regarding Recount Results". Maricopa County Superior Court. December 29, 2022. Retrieved December 29, 2022.
  22. ^ "General Election Statewide Recount Results" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved December 29, 2022.
  23. ^ @DrewSav (July 30, 2023). "Here's the Superintendent race, which went from D+3 in 2018 to R+0.4 in 2022" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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