2022 New York's 19th congressional district special election
(Redirected from Draft:2022 New York's 19th congressional district special election)
The 2022 New York's 19th congressional district special election was a special election held on August 23, 2022.[2] The seat became vacant after incumbent Democratic representative Antonio Delgado resigned on May 25, 2022, to become lieutenant governor of New York.[3][4] Democratic nominee Pat Ryan won a slight victory over Republican nominee Marc Molinaro in what was seen as an upset due to Molinaro's lead in polls and fundraising in the weeks leading to the election.[5]
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New York's 19th congressional district | ||||||||||||||||||||
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| Turnout | 27.16%[1] | |||||||||||||||||||
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 Results by county Ryan: 50–60% 60–70% Molinaro: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Candidates
editDemocratic Party
editNominee
edit- Pat Ryan, Ulster County executive and candidate for this district in 2018[6]
Declined
edit- Michelle Hinchey, state senator from the 46th district (endorsed Ryan)[4][7]
- Zephyr Teachout, special advisor in the office of the Attorney General of New York, Fordham University law professor; candidate for governor in 2014, nominee for this district in 2016, candidate for attorney general in 2018 and 2022[3]
Republican Party
editNominee
edit- Marc Molinaro, Dutchess County executive and former state assemblyman; nominee for governor in 2018[3]
Endorsements
editPat Ryan (D)
U.S. representatives
- Sean Patrick Maloney, U.S. representative from New York's 18th congressional district (2013–present)[6]
Statewide officials
- Antonio Delgado, Lieutenant Governor of New York (2022–present) and former U.S. Representative from New York's 19th congressional district (2019–2022)[6]
- Thomas DiNapoli, Comptroller of New York (2007–present)[8]
- Kathy Hochul, Governor of New York (2021–present), former lieutenant governor of New York (2015–2021), and former U.S. Representative from New York's 26th congressional district (2011–2013)[6]
State legislators
Mayors
- Gary Bassett, mayor of Rhinebeck[11]
- Joe DeStefano, mayor of Middletown[11]
- Torrance Harvey, mayor of Newburgh[11]
- Jeff Kaplan, mayor of Ellenville[11]
- Lee Kyriacou, mayor of Beacon[11]
- Steve Noble, mayor of Kingston[11]
- Tim Rogers, mayor of New Paltz[11]
- Karen Smythe, mayor of Red Hook[11]
Organizations
Marc Molinaro (R)
U.S. representatives
- Elise Stefanik, U.S. representative from New York's 21st congressional district (2015–present)[13]
Organizations
General election
editPredictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[17] | Tossup | May 5, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[18] | Tossup | July 21, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Lean R (flip) | May 11, 2022 |
Polling
editGraphical summary
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Pat Ryan (D) |
Marc Molinaro (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D)[20] | August 17–22, 2022 | 1,222 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 53% | 2% |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department (D)[21][A] | August 6–8, 2022 | 480 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R)[22][B] | July 26–28, 2022 | 407 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 40% | 50% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[23][C] | June 29–30, 2022 | 581 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 43% | 16% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R)[24][B] | June 16–20, 2022 | 505 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 38% | 52% | 10% |
Hypothetical polling
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department (D)[21][A] | August 6–8, 2022 | 480 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 44% | 45% | 12% |
Fundraising
edit| Campaign finance reports as of August 3, 2022 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Amount raised | Amount spent | Cash on hand |
| Marc Molinaro (R) | $1,593,762 | $993,626 | $600,136 |
| Pat Ryan (D) | $1,582,369 | $1,265,848 | $316,522 |
| Source: OpenSecrets[25] | |||
Results
editPat Ryan won the election with 66,088 votes or 51.2% of the vote compared to Marc Molinaro's 48.8% of the vote or 63,010 votes. This defied most polls, which had Molinaro winning by a somewhat comfortable margin as well as Sabato's Crystal Ball rating of Lean R. His victory can be attributed to his large margins in Ulster County. Ryan overperformed Joe Biden's 2020 margin in this district by about 0.8%. The result was considered an upset by some, as Molinaro had led by as much as 14 percentage points in public polling of the race, and Molinaro outspent Ryan on television advertising.[26][27] Ryan's victory led some forecasters to change some of their predictions for the 2022 House election.[28]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Pat Ryan | 58,636 | 45.39% | –2.61 | |
| Working Families | Pat Ryan | 7,452 | 5.77% | –0.78 | |
| Total | Pat Ryan | 66,088 | 51.15% | –3.64 | |
| Republican | Marc Molinaro | 52,514 | 40.65% | –2.55 | |
| Conservative | Marc Molinaro | 10,496 | 8.12% | N/A | |
| Total | Marc Molinaro | 63,010 | 48.77% | +5.57 | |
| Write-in | 96 | 0.07% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 129,194 | 100.00% | |||
| Turnout | 129,328 | 27.16% | |||
| Registered electors | 476,134 | ||||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
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See also
editNotes
editPartisan clients
References
edit- ^ a b "New York State Unofficial Election Night Results". New York State Board of Elections. August 24, 2022. Retrieved August 24, 2022.
- ^ Taddeo, Sarah (May 23, 2022). "Antonio Delgado to be sworn in as New York's lieutenant governor on May 25". The Journal News. Retrieved May 23, 2022.
- ^ a b c "Hochul taps upstate Rep. Antonio Delgado as LG". City & State. May 3, 2022. Retrieved May 3, 2022.
- ^ a b Fandos, Nicholas; Ferre-Sadurni, Luis (May 3, 2022). "Hochul Chooses Antonio Delgado as New Lieutenant Governor". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved May 3, 2022.
- ^ Solender, Andrew (August 23, 2022). "Democrats hold onto key House seat in N.Y. special election". Axios. Retrieved August 24, 2022.
- ^ a b c d "Pat Ryan to run in special 19th Congressional election before pursuing 18th seat". Poughkeepsie Journal. May 17, 2022. Retrieved May 23, 2022.
- ^ "For the strength of our party & the future we need here in NYS, I have decided to stay in the Senate & run for re-election, however the lines may look. We need representation in Albany fighting against the partisan rhetoric & blatant attacks on the rights we hold so dear".
- ^ "LABOR CANVASS FOR NY-19 SPECIAL ELECTION: Join Tom DiNapoli to knock doors for Pat Ryan · Mobilize".
- ^ "Columbia and Greene: Virtual Phonebank for Michelle Hinchey and Pat Ryan! · Mobilize".
- ^ "Special election for upstate New York House seat offers new test of political energy around abortion | CNN Politics". CNN. August 22, 2022.
- ^ a b c d e f g h "Mayors Across Hudson Valley Endorse Pat Ryan". hudsonvalleypress.com. June 22, 2022. Retrieved December 5, 2022.
- ^ "Pat Ryan".
- ^ "Stefanik makes push for Republican New York House hopefuls".
- ^ "Small Businesses Endorse Marc Molinaro in NY-19 Special Election". National Federation of Independent Business. July 20, 2022. Retrieved August 10, 2022.
- ^ "NYFCR Endorsements: 2022". newyorkfcr.org. August 21, 2022. Archived from the original on August 21, 2022.
- ^ "U.S. Chamber Endorses Marc Molinaro for New York's 19th Congressional District". August 10, 2022.
- ^ Wasserman, Dave. "Delgado Exit Yet Another Setback for New York Democrats". Retrieved May 6, 2022.
- ^ Rubashkin, Jacob (July 21, 2022). "New York Special Elections: 19th and 23rd Districts". House Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved July 21, 2022.
- ^ Coleman, J. Miles (May 11, 2022). "Notes on the State of Politics: May 11, 2022". Retrieved May 11, 2022.
- ^ Data for Progress (D)
- ^ a b DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department (D)
- ^ Triton Polling & Research (R)
- ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
- ^ Triton Polling & Research (R)
- ^ "New York District 19 2022 Special Election". OpenSecrets. Archived from the original on August 24, 2022. Retrieved August 24, 2022.
- ^ "Democrats win Albany-area special House race despite being outspent on airwaves". NBC News. August 24, 2022. Retrieved August 24, 2022.
- ^ Solender, Andrew (August 24, 2022). "Democrats hold onto key House seat in N.Y. special election as Pat Ryan wins". Axios. Retrieved August 24, 2022.
- ^ "Red Wave Looks More Like a Ripple". Cook Political Report. August 24, 2022. Retrieved August 24, 2022.
- ^ "New York 19th Congressional District Special Election Results". The New York Times. August 23, 2022. Retrieved August 23, 2022.