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2024 Tokyo gubernatorial election

(Redirected from Draft:2024 Tokyo gubernatorial election)

The 2024 Tokyo gubernatorial election took place on 7 July 2024 to elect the Governor of Tokyo. Incumbent Yuriko Koike was re-elected for a third term, albeit at a reduced share of the votes compared to her 2016 election and 2020 re-election.[1][2] Shinji Ishimaru, the former Mayor of Akitakata, exceeded expectations to place second behind Koike.[3] Meanwhile, lawmaker Renhō, who was endorsed by the main left-wing opposition parties and was widely considered Koike's main opponent leading up to election day, significantly underperformed her polling and placed third.[4]

2024 Tokyo gubernatorial election
← 2020 7 July 2024 2028 →
Turnout60.62% Increase 5.62 pp
 
Yuriko_Koike_2024-7-6(3)_(cropped).jpg
Shinji_Ishimaru_2024-7-6(2)_(cropped).jpg
Renhō_2024-6-30(1)_(cropped).jpg
Candidate Yuriko Koike Shinji Ishimaru Renhō
Party Independent Independent Independent
Popular vote 2,918,015 1,658,363 1,283,262
Percentage 42.8% 24.3% 18.8%
Supported by Tomin First, LDP, Komeito, DPFP — CDP, JCP, SDP
Election results by municipalities.
Governor before election

Yuriko Koike
Independent

Elected Governor

Yuriko Koike
Independent

Ishimaru's success has been attributed to his extensive use of social media platforms for campaigning,[5] winning independents and the youth vote,[6][7] while Renhō's poor performance has been linked to her collaboration with the Japanese Communist Party (JCP), resulting in alienation among independent and moderate voters.[8][9][10]

The election took place simultaneously with by-elections to replace 9 vacant seats in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly.

Background

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Incumbent Governor Yuriko Koike (pictured in April 2023), sought a third consecutive term.

Incumbent Governor Yuriko Koike ran for re-election to a third term, receiving the endorsement of the Democratic Party For the People and the regional party Tomin First no Kai, which Koike founded and currently serves as their special advisor.[11] The Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito, who previously refused to support Koike in 2016 and 2020, endorsed her at their own initiative.[12]

Koike's main opponent was expected to be lawmaker Renhō, who received the endorsement of the main left-wing opposition parties; the Constitutional Democratic Party, the Japanese Communist Party and the Social Democratic Party.[13] Shinji Ishimaru, the former Mayor of Akitakata, and Toshio Tamogami, the former Chief of Staff of the Japan Air Self-Defense Force ran without the support of any major parties.[14] Free Education For All and Sanseitō instructed its members to vote freely, while Nippon Ishin no Kai and Reiwa Shinsengumi did not field or endorse a candidate.[15]

Minor candidates included ultranationalist and anti-Korean political activist Makoto Sakurai, who ran under the Japan First Party,[16] and Atsuhiko Kurokawa, who was arrested in June 2024 for alleged election interference and sabotage during a House of Representatives by-election in April 2024, who ran under the Tsubasa Party.[17][18]

56 candidates filed to run in the election, with nearly half of them belonging to Takashi Tachibana's NHK Party,[19] the highest number of registered candidates to date.[20] Media outlets have described the high number of candidates as being a result of the election becoming known as a forum for self-promotion and publicity stunts.[21][22]

Campaign

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The main issues in the election included declining birth rates,[23][24] environmental laws,[25] redevelopment of the Meiji Jingu Gaien area,[26] and the use of projection mapping on the Tokyo Metropolitan Government Building.[27]

Incumbent Koike utilized her experience to garner support, delivering occasional speeches throughout Tokyo.[28] Renhō focused on street rallies and anti-LDP sentiment, typically making two speeches per day.[29] Renhō's campaign has been noted for its progressivism, advocating for LGBT inclusive policies, climate action, and intergenerational equity, which appeals to younger voters.[30][31] Shinji Ishimaru, the 41 year old who previously served as the Mayor of Akitakata, has used social media to increase his name recognition, running a populist campaign by advertising himself as a political outsider.[32] Like Renhō, he utilized street campaigning, but instead moves from one speech location to another in 30-minute intervals to appeal for support. His campaign recruited about 5,000 volunteers to spread his activities through social media; he also has capitalized on anti-LDP sentiment.[33] Tamogami appealed to conservatives, making speeches in front of the Defense Ministry building, having a strong stance in support of the controversial Yasukuni Shrine and being opposed to immigration.[34][33][35] Although Sanseitō did not endorse Tamogami, its leader Sohei Kamiya campaigned alongside him.[36]

The four main candidates took part in several forums and debates. A joint press conference hosted by ANN was held between Koike, Renhō, Ishimaru, and Tamogami on 19 June.[37] The four participated in a public debate hosted by Junior Chamber International (JCI) that was held on 24 June.[38]

  •  
    Yuriko Koike giving a speech at Ginza.
  •  
    Renhō giving a speech in front of Shinjuku Station.
  •  
    Shinji Ishimaru giving a speech in front of Yurakucho Itocia.

Controversies

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Poster jacking

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Tokyo's election boards. Each candidate is allocated one slot to display their poster

The NHK Party led by Takashi Tachibana launched a political stunt named "Operation Tokyo Gubernatorial Election Poster Display Jacking." Filing dozens of candidates for the election under their party, Tachibana was able to gain access to approximately 14,000 campaign posters throughout Tokyo. By donating to the party, donors were able to put up a poster of their choice in place of the party's posters. The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications stated that there are no restrictions on the content of campaign posters, except for false information, content related to other candidates' campaigns, and content that violates laws. Despite this, experts raised concerns about the legal loopholes, and an online petition opposing the poster jacking gathered more than 20,000 signatures.[39][40][41]

 
One of the election boards taken over by the NHK Party's "jacking."

On June 22, the Tokyo Metropolitan Police Department warned the party about posters in Shibuya Ward advertising a women-only adult entertainment establishment, potentially violating the Entertainment and Amusement Business Act. Tachibana removed the posters in response.[42] Additionally, posters in the same Ward featured illustrations of deceased actor Haruma Miura, leading to a protest from his former talent agency, Amuse. The donor responsible for the posters admitted to putting them up without permission, leading to Tachibana apologizing and removing the posters.[43][44]

The Tokyo Metropolitan Election Commission received over 1,000 complaints from residents regarding the posters between June 20 and June 21. Secretary-General of the LDP Toshimitsu Motegi expressed the need to consider revising the Public Offices Election Act to address the poster jacking. Komeito leader Natsuo Yamaguchi, CDP Secretary-General Katsuya Okada, DPFP leader Yuichiro Tamaki, JCP Secretary-General Akira Koike, as well as Governor of Osaka Hirofumi Yoshimura expressed similar views.[45][46][47]

Perennial candidates

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Perennial candidates Teruki Gotō (left) and Yoshiro Nakamatsu (right).

The election gained international attention due to the large amount of joke parties and perennial candidates participating,[48] which included 96-year-old inventor Yoshiro Nakamatsu, internet comedian 'AI Mayor', Yusuke Kawai, the self-proclaimed "Joker of Japan" who gained controversy for putting explicit campaign posters with a fully nude image of a gyaru model, which was later removed by the Metropolitan Police Department,[49] and a candidate from the 'Poker Party' who advocates for economic and political reforms through the card game.[50][51] Governor of Tottori Shinji Hirai said in a remark to the Tottori prefectural assembly that the influx of joke and perennial candidates in the election showed that “democracy is at risk of collapse.”[48]

In Japan, political broadcasts airs on NHK to provide a platform for all candidates participating in an election to present their policies and appeal to voters. Each candidate is given a set amount of time to speak, and the broadcasts are scheduled at various times to reach a wide audience. In addition to serious policy discussions, political broadcasts often features appearances by joke and perennial candidates who use this platform to engage in unconventional or questionable activities. During one of the broadcasts for the election, female candidate Airi Uchino was seen stripping in the middle of her broadcast. A separate candidate was seen yelling at the sign language interpreter that accompanied him during the broadcast, causing controversy.[52][53][54]

 
Makoto Sakurai's campaign vehicle in front of Shinjuku Station.

Xenophobic comments

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Makoto Sakurai, the Japan First Party candidate, has long been noted for his xenophobia, founding the anti-Zainichi Korean organization Zaitokukai in 2007. During a campaign speech in front of Ikebukuro Station, Sakurai accused a 24-hour Chinese store located near the station of hosting "400 Chinese mafias," claiming that the Metropolitan Police Department has confirmed the information, however, this was later denied. In the same campaign speech, Sakurai further claimed that public safety in Ikebukuro is "being threatened due to the rise in Chinese immigrants".[55]

Assassination threats and gaffes

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Koike and Renhō's campaign headquarters received a series of threatening letters with death and bomb threats. Both campaigns have filed damage reports with the Tokyo Metropolitan Police Department and the incident is being investigated on suspicion of intimidation.[56]

  • On June 23, a fax was sent to Renhō's campaign office with the message "I will stab her with a knife and kill her." The fax also contained statements such as "I have obtained sulfuric acid" and "I will plant a bomb and detonate it on June 24th."[57]
  • On June 24, a letter almost identical to the fax sent to the Renhō campaign was sent to the Toshima Ward office of Tomin First no Kai, the local party which endorsed Koike, stating that they had "splashed sulfuric acid" and "planted explosives."[58]

Additionally, a death threat was delivered to the female model behind Kawai's explicit campaign posters, resulting in Kawai cancelling his planned campaign speeches and political gaffes.[59]

Results

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Despite receiving generous media coverage, Toshio Tamogami only received 3.9% of the popular vote.

An exit poll conducted by NHK was published at the end of voting at 20:00. The poll showed Koike winning with approximately 40% of the votes, with Ishimaru unexpectedly placing second with approximately 20% of the votes, followed by Renhō and Tamogami.[60][61][62] Ishimaru surprised many by securing second place behind Koike with 1,658,363 votes, capturing 24.3% of the total vote share. His unexpected success highlighted his growing popularity among independents and the youth.[63] In contrast, Renhō, initially seen as Koike's main rival, underperformed with 1,283,262 votes, amounting to 18.8% of the votes cast.[64][65]

A separate exit poll conducted by the Yomiuri Shimbun and Nippon TV showed 67% of LDP and 77% of Komeito members voted for Koike, while 59% of CDP and 71% of JCP members voted for Renhō. In addition, 19% of CDP and 10% of JCP members voted for Koike, while Ishimaru won over 20% of LDP and 18% of CDP members.[66] Meanwhile, 36% of independents voted for Ishimaru, 31% for Koike, and 17% for Renhō.[67]

According to NHK and The Asahi Shimbun exit polls, Ishimaru received support in the 40% to 20% range among those in their teens and twenties, while Koike was supported in the upper 20% range, giving Ishimaru a lead of over 10 points. Among voters in their 30s and 40s, both Koike and Ishimaru had support in the 30% range. However, among those in their 50s, Koike's support reached the 40% range, and for those over 60, both Koike and Renho saw an increase in their percentages.[68][69] In the previous election, Koike was the most popular across all age groups. This time, Ishimaru led among 18- and 19-year-olds and those in their 20s and 30s, while Koike remained the most popular among those in their 40s to 70s and over 80.[70]

Tokyo gubernatorial election, 2024
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Independent[a] Yuriko Koike (incumbent) 2,918,015 42.8%  16.9
Independent Shinji Ishimaru 1,658,363 24.3% New
Independent[b] Renhō 1,283,262 18.8% New
Independent Toshio Tamogami 267,699 3.9% New
Independent Takahiro Anno 154,638 2.3% New
Citizens' Political Association Satoru Utsumi 121,715 1.8% New
Independent Akane Himasora 110,196 1.6% New
Independent Yukito Ishimaru 96,222 1.4% New
Japan First Makoto Sakurai 83,600 1.2%  1.7
Association for a Safe Future with Kuniaki Shimizu and Tokyo Kuniaki Shimizu 38,054 0.6% New
Independent Yoshiro Nakamatsu 23,825 0.3% New
Independent Yukio Yamato 9,685 0.1% New
Independent Hiroshi Kobayashi 7,408 0.1% New
Love & Peace Party Teruki Gotō 5,419 0.1%  0.26
Future Party Mitsuki Kimiya 4,874 0.1% New
Independent Shigeyuki Fukumoto 3,245 0.03% New
AI Party AI Mayor 2,761 0.02% New
Independent Hisao Naito 2,339 0.02%  0.05
Anti-NHK Midori Yokoyama 2,174 0.02% New
Watch My Cute Political Broadcast Airi Uchino 2,152 0.02% New
Association to Increase Voter Turnout and Joker Members of Parliament Yuusuke Kawai 2,035 0.02% New
Independent Masanori Kougo 1,951 0.02% New
Tsubasa Atsuhiko Kurokawa 1,833 0.02% New
Prevent Medical Kume Kei Victims Association and Soka Gakkai Eradication Party Mariko Kuwahara 1,747 0.02% New
Anti-NHK Katsuya Fukunaga 1,281 0.01% New
Independent Shou Nomaguchi 1,240 0.01% New
Independent Shigemi Sawa 1,232 0.01% New
Independent Nobuo Ushikubo 1,153 0.01% New
Independent Ken Komatsu 894 0.008% New
Anti-NHK Shinichi Endou 882 0.008% New
Anti-NHK Taizou Ninomiya 833 0.007% New
Independent Takemoto Hideyuki 812 0.007% New
Neo Shogunate Akinori Party Akinori Shougunmiman 792 0.007% New
Independent Kouki Onodera 759 0.007% New
Anti-NHK Shinichi Yamada 691 0.006% New
Anti-NHK Yoshitaka Kimura 676 0.006% New
Independent Nobuo Shindo 669 0.006% New
Anti-NHK Tomoya Nakae 612 0.005% New
Anti-NHK Hideaki Katou 588 0.005% New
Conqueror Party Takuji Kagata 578 0.005% New
Independent Kenichirou Katou 572 0.005% New
Independent Jin Hokari 560 0.005% New
Anti-NHK Taichi Maeda 521 0.005% New
Anti-NHK Atsushi Kusao 481 0.004% New
Anti-NHK Shirubi Fukuhara 466 0.004% New
Anti-NHK Takashi Takeuchi 446 0.004% New
Independent Ayumi Ozeki 417 0.004% New
Anti-NHK Hiroaki Inubuse 371 0.003% New
Nuclear Fusion Party Yasufumi Kuwashima 361 0.003% New
Anti-NHK Yoshiharu Matsuo 351 0.003% New
Party to Impeach Five Supreme Court Judges Makoto Furuta 343 0.003% New
Anti-NHK Yumeto Funabashi 329 0.003% New
Anti-NHK Youichi Miwa 306 0.003% New
Anti-NHK Daisaku Tsumura 302 0.003% New
Anti-NHK Shunsuke Minami 297 0.003% New
Anti-NHK Muneyuki Jouraku 211 0.002% New
Turnout 11,349,278 60.56%  5.62

Results by municipality

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Municipality Yuriko Koike Shinji Ishimaru Renhō Toshio Tamogami
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Total 2,918,015 42.8% 1,658,363 24.3% 1,283,262 18.8% 267,699 3.9%
Chiyoda 13,490 39.5% 8,818 25.8% 5,300 15.5% 1,701 5.0%
Chūō 36,927 40.8% 24,890 27.5% 12,910 14.3% 4,189 4.6%
Minato 43,787 38.3% 30,863 27.0% 18,725 16.4% 5,721 5.0%
Shinjuku 63,036 40.1% 39,072 24.8% 29,762 18.9% 7,554 4.8%
Bunkyō 49,077 39.7% 28,009 22.7% 23,924 19.4% 5,075 4.1%
Taitō 42,228 40.1% 27,357 26.0% 17,887 17.0% 4,831 4.6%
Sumida 61,337 43.1% 35,370 24.9% 22,918 16.1% 5,715 4.0%
Kōtō 110,457 42.9% 68,192 26.5% 44,724 17.4% 9,983 3.9%
Shinagawa 83,867 40.9% 55,984 27.3% 35,095 17.1% 8,393 4.1%
Meguro 50,269 36.4% 37,681 27.3% 28,445 20.6% 5,587 4.0%
Ōta 154,309 42.7% 93,235 25.8% 62,928 17.4% 14,828 4.1%
Setagaya 180,766 37.7% 134,587 28.1% 98,771 20.6% 19,447 4.1%
Shibuya 39,959 35.1% 31,430 27.6% 23,738 20.9% 5,253 4.6%
Nakano 64,505 38.5% 39,314 23.5% 34,186 20.4% 7,480 4.5%
Suginami 113,484 37.8% 76,796 25.6% 66,045 22.0% 12,333 4.1%
Toshima 58,590 42.7% 32,210 23.5% 23,677 17.3% 6,048 4.4%
Kita 77,799 44.3% 36,453 20.7% 32,304 18.4% 6,971 4.0%
Arakawa 45,373 44.6% 23,530 23.1% 17,136 16.8% 4,113 4.0%
Itabashi 117,802 43.2% 66,658 24.4% 49,982 18.3% 11,147 4.1%
Nerima 164,174 43.8% 86,758 23.2% 68,655 18.3% 14,577 3.9%
Adachi 148,432 48.0% 70,901 22.9% 51,903 16.8% 11,732 3.8%
Katsushika 98,479 45.7% 52,929 24.6% 36,746 17.1% 8,467 3.9%
Edogawa 143,930 46.6% 73,963 23.9% 48,505 15.7% 12,401 4.0%
Hachiōji 123,401 45.8% 62,479 23.2% 53,862 20.0% 8,862 3.3%
Tachikawa 41,566 46.4% 19,021 21.3% 16,719 18.7% 3,252 3.6%
Musashino 29,616 37.4% 20,395 25.8% 18,415 23.3% 2,997 3.8%
Mitaka 39,009 39.2% 25,695 25.8% 21,794 21.9% 3,642 3.7%
Ome 32,556 51.9% 11,908 19.0% 11,348 18.1% 2,038 3.2%
Fuchū 56,567 43.7% 31,567 24.4% 24,895 19.2% 4,884 3.8%
Akishima 26,247 47.6% 11,705 21.2% 10,266 18.6% 2,020 3.7%
Chōfu 51,795 41.4% 32,874 26.3% 24,810 19.8% 4,499 3.6%
Machida 97,713 45.6% 46,230 21.6% 41,389 19.3% 7,431 3.5%
Koganei 26,077 40.3% 14,282 22.0% 14,372 22.2% 2,233 3.4%
Kodaira 43,212 43.9% 21,800 22.1% 19,929 20.2% 3,407 3.5%
Hino 41,940 43.7% 21,877 22.8% 19,377 20.2% 3,329 3.5%
Higashiyamato 34,410 45.8% 16,009 21.3% 15,433 20.5% 2,690 3.6%
Hamura 12,522 49.1% 5,462 21.4% 4,689 18.4% 747 2.9%
Akiruno 19,995 51.9% 7,537 19.6% 7,059 18.3% 1,184 3.1%
Nishitokyo 45,352 43.1% 24,204 23.0% 21,530 20.5% 3,890 3.7%
Mizuho 8,078 55.9% 2,479 17.2% 2,227 15.4% 464 3.2%
Hinode 4,467 55.5% 1,425 17.7% 1,437 17.8% 232 2.9%
Hinohara 731 61.4% 146 12.4% 196 16.5% 24 2.0%
Okutama 1,758 68.0% 331 12.8% 345 13.4% 33 1.3%
Ōshima 2,065 56.0% 617 16.8% 643 17.4% 89 2.4%
To-shima 130 62.2% 42 20.1% 23 11.0% 3 1.4%
Niijima 979 68.8% 224 15.8% 117 8.2% 36 2.5%
Kozushima 614 63.2% 133 13.8% 110 11.3% 18 1.9%
Miyake 755 61.5% 213 17.4% 146 11.9% 24 2.0%
Mikurajima 82 44.6% 37 20.6% 39 21.2% 5 2.7%
Hachijō 2,501 64.6% 540 14.0% 500 12.9% 110 2.8%
Aogashima 72 69.9% 18 17.5% 9 8.7% 2 1.9%
Ogasawara 566 43.5% 338 26.1% 182 14.0% 61 4.7%

Aftermath

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After the release of the exit poll projecting her victory, Koike made a speech thanking her supporters for voting for her.[71] Ishimaru, who exceeded expectations and placed second behind Koike, said in his concession speech that he is thinking of entering national politics in the future, hinting a candidacy for the Hiroshima 1st district of the House of Representatives, the constituency of prime minister Fumio Kishida.[72][73] Renhō said the reason behind her underperformance in the election was her "lack of ability." However, she said that she wishes to remain in politics and continue her career as an opposition politician.[74][75][76]

Some media outlets and politicians such as Takashi Tachibana have suggested that Yukito Ishimaru, who placed eighth with 96,222 votes, received these votes primarily because he shares the same surname as Shinji Ishimaru, resulting in some confused voters voting for Yukito. It is argued that Yukito would not have achieved this vote count given his low media coverage and lack of popularity.[77][78]

Simultaneous by-elections

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By-elections for the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly were held simultaneously with the gubernatorial election to fill the vacancies of nine seats.[79]

The results of the by-elections saw Tomin First no Kai winning three seats, the Liberal Democratic Party winning two, the Constitutional Democratic Party winning one and independent candidates winning the remaining three seats.

Kōtō Ward

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LDP Assembly member Ikki Yamazaki resigned due to his candidacy for the 2023 Kōtō Ward Mayoral election. The by-election was won by independent candidate Aya Sannohe.

Shinagawa Ward

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Independent Assembly member Kyoko Morisawa resigned due to her candidacy for the 2022 Shinagawa Ward Mayoral election. The by-election was won by independent candidate Rika Shinohara.

Nakano Ward

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Chiharu Araki, leader of Tomin First no Kai, resigned due to her candidacy for the 2022 House of Councillors election. The by-election was won by Araki, who ran again for her old seat.

Kita Ward

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Independent Assembly member Kanako Yamada resigned due to her candidacy for the 2023 Kita Ward Mayoral election. The by-election was won by Tomin First candidate Miki Komazaki.

Itabashi Ward

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Tomin First Assembly member Kinoshita Fumiko resigned in November 2021 following a scandal after she was repeatedly caught driving without a license. The by-election was won by LDP candidate Yuki Kono.

Adachi Ward

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LDP Assembly member Naoki Takashima died in office in October 2023. The by-election was won by CDP candidate Yuiko Ginka.

Hachioji

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LDP Assembly member Ken Nishiyama died in office in August 2022. The by-election was won by independent candidate Yasuhiko Takita.

Fuchu

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LDP Assembly member Kinji Suzuki died in office in June 2023. The by-election was won by LDP candidate Haruka Masuyama.

Minamitama

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Tomin First Assembly member Ryoichi Ishikawa died in office in June 2024. The by-election was won by Tomin First candidate Chihiro Endo.

Notes

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  1. ^ Supported by Tomin First, LDP, Komeito, DPFP
  2. ^ Supported by CDP, JCP, SDP

References

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  4. ^ Inoue, Yukana (7 July 2024). "Koike secures third term as Tokyo governor, exit poll shows". The Japan Times. Archived from the original on 7 July 2024. Retrieved 7 July 2024.
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