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Fall of the Assad regime

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On 8 December 2024, the Syrian Arab Republic under Bashar al-Assad collapsed amid major offensives by the Syrian opposition (led by Tahrir al-Sham and supported by other rebel groups, including the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army) as part of the Syrian civil war which began in 2011. The fall of Damascus marked the end of the Assad family regime, which had ruled Syria as a totalitarian hereditary dictatorship since Hafez al-Assad assumed the presidency in 1971 following the Corrective Revolution.

Fall of the Assad regime
Part of the 2024 Syrian opposition offensives in the Syrian civil war
Bashar al-Assad in 2024, approximately seven months before being overthrown by Syrian opposition forces
Date8 December 2024
LocationSyria
Organised bySyrian opposition Syrian opposition
Outcome

As the Southern Operations Room, a rebel coalition, approached Damascus and began searching for Assad, he and his family fled the capital on a plane to Russia where they were granted asylum.[4] The rebels subsequently declared victory against the Assad government on state television, while Russia's foreign ministry announced Assad's resignation and departure from Syria.[5][6]

Background

See also: Al-Assad family, Bashar al-Assad, and Neo-Ba'athism

The al-Assad family had ruled Syria since 1971, when Hafez al-Assad became the president of Syria under the Syrian Ba'ath Party. After his death in June 2000, he was succeeded by his son Bashar al-Assad.[7][8][9][10]

Hafez al-Assad built his governmental system as a bureaucracy that was marked by a distinct cult of personality, uncharacteristic in modern Syrian history. Images, portraits, quotes and praises of Assad were displayed everywhere from schools to public markets and government offices; and Hafez al-Assad was referred to as the "Immortal Leader" and the "Sanctified One" (al-Muqaddas)[11] in official Assadist ideology. Hafez reorganised Syrian society along militaristic lines, persistently invoked conspiratorial rhetoric on the dangers of foreign-backed plots abetted by fifth columnists, and promoted the armed forces as a central aspect of public life.[12][13][14]

After Hafez al-Assad's seizure of power in 1970, state propaganda promoted a new national discourse based on unifying Syrians under "a single imagined Ba'athist identity," as well as Assadism.[15] Fervently loyalist paramilitaries known as the Shabiha (transl. 'ghosts') deify the Assad dynasty through slogans such as "There is no God but Bashar!" and pursue psychological warfare against non-conformist populations.[16]

Bashar al-Assad

After Hafez al-Assad's death, his son and successor Bashar al-Assad inherited the existing personality cult, with the party hailing him as the "Young Leader" and "Hope of the People." Drawing influence from North Korea's hereditary leadership model, official propaganda in Syria ascribed divine features[further explanation needed] to the Assad family, and reveres the Assad patriarchs as the founding fathers of modern Syria.[12][13][14]

In 2011, the United States, European Union, and most Arab League countries called for Assad to resign following the crackdown on Arab Spring protesters during the events of the Syrian revolution, which led to the Syrian civil war. As of 2022 the civil war had killed around 580,000 people, of whom at least 306,000 were non-combatants. According to the Syrian Network for Human Rights, pro-Assad forces caused more than 90% of the civilian deaths.[17] The Assad government perpetrated numerous war crimes during the course of the Syrian civil war,[a] and Assad's army, the Syrian Arab Armed Forces, also carried out several attacks with chemical weapons.[23] The deadliest chemical attack was a sarin gas strike in Ghouta on 21 August 2013, which killed between 281 and 1,729 people.[24][note 1]

In December 2013, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay stated that findings from an inquiry by the UN implicated Assad in war crimes. Investigations by the OPCW-UN Joint Investigative Mechanism and OPCW-UN IIT concluded, respectively, that the Assad government was responsible for the 2017 Khan Shaykhun sarin attack and 2018 Douma chemical attack. On 15 November 2023, France issued an arrest warrant against al-Assad over the use of banned chemical weapons against civilians in Syria.[38] Assad categorically denied the allegations, and accused foreign countries, especially the United States, of attempting regime change.[39]

Opposition takeover

Military advances

See also: Battle of Damascus (2024), 2024 Homs offensive, and 2024 Battle of Aleppo
 
Map of the 2024 Syrian opposition offensives

Planning by anti-Assad forces for an offensive against Aleppo began in late 2023 but was delayed by Turkish objections.[40][41] Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan sought negotiations with the Assad government, to "determine Syria's future together," but received a negative response.[42]

On 7 December 2024, opposition forces secured complete control of Homs following approximately twenty-four hours of concentrated military engagement. The rapid collapse of government defenses resulted in the hasty withdrawal of security forces, who destroyed sensitive documentation during their retreat. The capture granted insurgent forces control over critical transportation infrastructure, particularly the highway junction connecting Damascus to the Alawite coastal region, where both Assad's support base and Russian military installations were situated.[43]

Assad-allied Hezbollah forces withdrew from nearby al-Qusayr, evacuating approximately 150 armored vehicles and hundreds of fighters. The reduction in support from key allies, including Russia's diminished involvement due to its focus on its invasion of Ukraine, and Hezbollah's concurrent engagement in conflict with Israel, were believed to contribute to the government's weakened position.[43]

The takeover of Homs by opposition forces prompted widespread public celebrations, with residents participating in street demonstrations. Celebrants chanted anti-Assad slogans including: "Assad is gone, Homs is free" and "Long live Syria, down with Bashar al-Assad", removed government symbols which included portraits of Assad, while opposition fighters conducted victory celebrations including celebratory gunfire.[43]

On 7 December, Syrian rebels announced that they started surrounding Damascus after capturing nearby towns, with rebel commander Hassan Abdel Ghani stating that "our forces have begun implementing the final phase of encircling the capital Damascus."[44] The rebels started encircling the capital after capturing Al-Sanamayn, a town 20 kilometres (12 mi) from the southern entrance of Damascus.[45] By the evening, pro-government forces had left the towns on the outskirts of Damascus, including Jaramana, Qatana, Muadamiyat al-Sham, Darayya, Al-Kiswah, Al-Dumayr, Daraa and sites near the Mezzeh Air Base.[46]

The Syrian Army attempted to maintain public order through state media broadcasts, urging citizens to disregard what they termed "false news" aimed at destabilizing national security. Military leadership assured the population of their continued commitment to defending the country, though their ability to do so appeared increasingly limited. Opposition reconnaissance units penetrated the capital's defenses, establishing positions in strategic locations throughout the city. Special operations teams conducted unsuccessful searches for Assad within Damascus.[47]

Loss of political control

 
"Victory of the great Syrian revolution and the fall of the criminal al-Assad regime" on Syrian state TV after the fall of Damascus to the HTS. This was its sole broadcast for several hours.[48]

In the main square of Jaramana, protestors took down a statue of Hafez al-Assad. In the evening, pro-government forces reportedly withdrew from several suburbs where large-scale protests had broken out.[47]

Senior Assad government officials in Damascus reportedly engaged in negotiations with opposition forces regarding potential defections. These developments coincided with Iranian officials' denial of reports suggesting Assad had fled the country, though sources indicated his whereabouts in Damascus remained unknown. Following the entrance of opposition forces, Assad's presidential guard was no longer deployed at his usual residence. By the early evening of 7 December 2024 rebel forces attempting to find Assad had found no useful intelligence on his whereabouts.[47]

On 8 December, Ha'yat Tahrir al-Sham announced on its official X account that it had released its prisoners from Sednaya Prison in Damascus's periphery, one of Syria's largest detention facilities. The organization deemed the release as a symbolic and strategic victory for its forces in the face of prior human rights abuses, and representative of the downfall of the Assad government's injustices.[49] After its capture in 2024, Tahrir al-Sham published a list of escaped prison staff, who became among the most wanted fugitives in Syria after the Assad family.[50]

The opposition's entry into Damascus met minimal resistance, due to an apparent lack of military dispatches to areas of the city and the rapid dissolution of government defensive positions, allowing the capture of several districts. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights confirmed that opposition forces successfully seized several critical facilities in Damascus, including the state-media General Organization of Radio and TV building and Damascus International Airport. Their advances also secured control of major transportation arteries and strategic neighbourhoods, particularly the influential Mezzeh district.[51][52]

Departures

First Lady Asma al-Assad had moved to Russia with the couple's three children about a week before opposition forces had begun their advance toward Damascus. Concurrent reports indicated that members of Assad's extended family, including relatives from his sister's lineage, took refuge in the United Arab Emirates. In the days before the opposition's advance, Egyptian and Jordanian officials were reported to have urged Bashar al-Assad to leave the country and form a government-in-exile, although the Egyptian Foreign Ministry and the Jordanian embassy denied doing so.[53][54]

In the early hours of 8 December, Assad departed from Damascus International Airport to Moscow, Russia in a private aircraft,[49][55] after which government troops stationed at the facility were dismissed from their posts.[56] According to Rami Abdel Rahman (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights), Bashar al-Assad had "left Syria via Damascus international airport".[57][58] Mikhail Ulyanov (Russia's ambassador to international organizations in Vienna) announced on Telegram that Assad and his family had been granted asylum in Russia.[4][59][60] The Russian government said that Assad resigned the presidency following a personal decision.[61]

Following the departures of members of the Assad family, videos showing groups of people entering and exploring inside Bashar al-Assad's empty residence in al-Maliki were circulated online.[62]

Political transition

Main article: Syrian transitional government

HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani stated on Telegram that Syrian public institutions would not immediately be given to its military forces, and would instead temporarily be held by Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali until the full political transition was completed. Al-Jalali announced in a social media video that he planned to stay in Damascus and cooperate with the Syrian people, while expressing hope that Syria could become "a normal country" and begin to engage in diplomacy with other nations.[55] He called the fall of Assad's regime "a new chapter in the history of the region" and condemned Syria's role as "a playground for Iranian ambitions," characterized by sectarianism and corruption.[63]

Mohammed al-Bashir, head of the Syrian Salvation Government, was appointed as new prime minister of the Syrian transitional government the following day.[64]

HTS has assured that they will protect and allow Christians and other minorities to freely practice their religion.[65][66] This has faced doubts as terrorist group Al-Qaeda is pressuring the HTS to attack Christians.[67]

Israeli invasion

Main article: 2024 Israeli invasion of Syria

Israeli forces initiated military operations in Syria's Quneitra Governorate. Armored units advanced into the buffer zone between the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and the rest of Syria, targeting areas including Tel Ayouba in the central Quneitra countryside with artillery fire.[68][69] The operation marked the first time in 50 years that Israeli forces crossed the Syrian border fence, following ceasefire agreements on 31 May 1974 in the aftermath of the Yom Kippur War.[14]

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that since the Syrian Army had abandoned its positions, the 1974 border agreement with Syria had collapsed, and that to prevent any possible threat he had ordered the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to temporarily re-occupy the Purple Line, from which the IDF had withdrawn in 1974, until an agreement was reached with the new government in Syria.[70][71]

Israel has carried out airstrikes in Syria, targeting Khalkhala air base, the Mazzeh district of Damascus, and suspected chemical weapon storage sites.[72] Israel claimed to have carried out this airstrike to prevent the fall of weapons to Jihadists.[73][74][75]

Geopolitical impact

The fall of the Assad regime, a vital ally of the Islamic Republic of Iran and a long-standing member of the Iranian-led "Axis of Resistance," has been described as a significant blow to the network and a step toward its eventual decline.[76][77][78][79][80][81][82][83] Following the rebel capture of Damascus, the Iranian embassy was ransacked, with portraits of Iran's leaders torn down and discarded.[84] Iranian diplomats and Quds Force commanders fled Syria in haste.[84] Many Syrians reportedly held Iran and Hezbollah responsible for supporting Assad's oppressive rule.[80] The loss of Syria also disrupted Iran's supply routes to Hezbollah in Lebanon, weakening the group's arsenal and diminishing Iran's strategic foothold in the region.[76]

Western media also described the fall of Assad as a serious blow for Russia, that exposed Putin's increasing inflexibility and struggle to keep Russia's allies in Africa (Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger) afloat.[85][86] Additionally, the catastrophic collapse of Assad regime is believed to have a consequence on how Putin will handle the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as his options have been narrowed following the shock defeat Russia suffered in Syria; while Russia's defeat in Syria also poses a major challenge on Russia's ability to support their allies in Latin America and Africa following the collapse of Assad regime.[87][88]

Reactions

Main article: Reactions to the fall of the Assad regime

Domestic

Opposition forces

The president of the Syrian National Coalition, Hadi al-Bahra, declared the fall of Bashar Al-Assad on 8 December.[89][90]

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the primary opposition force involved in Assad's ousting, declared Syria "liberated" following Assad's departure. The group issued proclamations via social media platforms announcing the conclusion of what they termed a "dark era" and promised a "new Syria" where "everyone lives in peace and justice prevails". Their statements specifically addressed displaced persons and former political prisoners, extending invitations for their return.[55]

Despite the collapse of the Assad regime, Turkey and Turkish-backed SNA fighters in northern Syria continued their offensive against U.S.-backed SDF forces.[91][92] On 9 December, SNA fighters captured the city of Manbij.[93]

Public reactions

Damascus witnessed public celebrations, particularly in the symbolic Umayyad Square, traditionally a center of government authority housing the Ministry of Defense and Syrian Armed Forces headquarters. Civilians gathered around abandoned military equipment, with social media footage documenting celebrations including music and public demonstrations. Defense ministry officials reportedly evacuated their headquarters during these developments.[55][94]

In Lebanon, hundreds of people celebrated in Tripoli and Akkar, in the north of the country, and in Bar Elias, which are mostly populated by Sunni Muslims who oppose Hezbollah and the Assad government, after the fall of Damascus.[95][96] The Syrian Ba'ath party office in Halba was stormed.[97]

International

 
Celebrations in Chittagong after Assad's fall
  •   Afghanistan: The Taliban's foreign ministry congratulated the Syrian opposition and "the people of Syria", hoping for "a peaceful, unified and stable system."[98]
  •   Canada: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau urged all parties involved to respect human rights and hailed the end of the government, stating that "The fall of Assad's dictatorship ends decades of brutal oppression". Adding that "A new chapter for Syria can begin here — one free of terrorism and suffering for the Syrian people".[99]
  •   China: A foreign ministry spokesperson said on 8 December that the Chinese government "is closely following the situation in Syria and hopes that stability will return as soon as possible" and "We urge relevant parties in Syria to ensure the safety and security of the Chinese institutions and personnel in Syria."[100][101][102]
  •   Egypt: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed Egypt's support for Syria's "sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity," calling on all parties in the conflict to initiate a "comprehensive political process" to establish peace.[98]
  •   France: President Emmanuel Macron announced that "the barbaric state has fallen," and expressed France's commitment "to the security of all in the Middle East."[98]
  •   Germany: Chancellor Olaf Scholz described the situation as "good news". Foreign minister Annalena Baerbock said that Assad "must finally be held accountable" for his atrocities against the Syrian people.[98]
  •   Greece: In accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 2254, the Greek Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized in a statement the pressing need for peace and a seamless transition to a democratically legitimated government. The ministry also conveyed the hope that the refugee issue would be resolved and that the safe return of Syrians to their homes would be made possible by the restoration of democratic rule.[103]
  •   Hamas: Hamas congratulated the Syrian people for achieving their "aspirations for freedom and justice," and said that it "stand[s] strongly with the great people of Syria," their "will," "independence," and their "political choices." Hamas also expressed hope that the new Syrian government would continue "its historical and pivotal role in supporting the Palestinian people."[104]
  •   India: The Indian government called for a peace process.[105]
  •   Indonesia: Indonesian Deputy Foreign Minister Anis Matta called on the appropriate parties to protect the safety and security of the Syrian people and guarantees that Indonesia will continue to keep a careful eye on the situation in Syria. He underlined that Indonesia believes Syrians "can start a new and better life" and respects Syria's territorial integrity.[106]
  •   Iran: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that "determining Syria's future and making decisions about its destiny are solely the responsibility of the Syrian people."[98]
  •   Iraq: The Iraqi government issued an official statement stressing the need to respect the free will of all Syrians, and the importance of Syria's security, territorial integrity, and maintaining its independence.[107]
  •   Israel: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed the events and said the end of the Assad government "is a direct result of the blows we have inflicted on Iran and Hezbollah".[108] The IDF maintained close surveillance of the situation, particularly regarding Iranian movements, while also claiming to have supported United Nations forces in repelling attacks by armed groups.[47] Israel initiated military operations in Syria's Quneitra Governorate.[68][69]
  •   Jordan: King Abdullah II stated that Jordan stands with the Syrian people and respects their will and choices.[98]
  •   Lebanon: The Lebanese army said it was reinforcing its presence on its northern and eastern borders with Syria "in light of rapid developments."[109]
  •   Morocco: Foreign minister Nasser Bourita expressed his support for "any political solution that would guarantee the rights of the Syrian people while preserving their sovereignty over their entire territory".[110]
  •   Palestine: President Mahmoud Abbas emphasized the necessity of respecting the unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Syria, expressing the full solidarity of the State of Palestine and its people with the brotherly Syrian people.[111]
  •   Qatar: Foreign minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani was critical of Assad's lack of action on societal, economic, and political issues during the periods of reduced fighting throughout the war. In remarks about the state of the Syrian Government Al Thani emphasized the importance of establishing a new political process and engaging in diplomacy with the new Syrian government.[112]
  •   Russia: The Foreign Ministry confirmed that Assad resigned from the presidency and departed Syria for Russia after holding talks with the parties involved in the conflict, adding that "Russia did not take part in these talks."[109][113]
  •   Sahrawi Republic: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement indicating that the Sahrawi government was closely following the developments in Syria, expressing its "sympathy and solidarity with the brotherly people of Syria". The Ministry also called for the international community to stand with Syria and its people in their efforts to build democratic institutions, while also expressing concerns over Syria's need to secure its borders and protect its interests "away from any foreign interference".[114] The Sahrawi Republic was recognised and maintained close relations with the Syrian Arab Republic.
  •   Saudi Arabia: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed its "satisfaction with the positive steps" in Syria. Saudi Arabia called for "concerted efforts to preserve the unity of Syria and the cohesion of its people."[98]
  •   South Africa: On 5 December the Department of International Relations stated that the country stood "in solidarity with the Government and people of the Syrian Arab Republic... [and] express[es] our grave concern at the offensive attack in Aleppo and Idlib by Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), which has been designated as a terrorist organisation by the UN Security Council, and a coalition of foreign mercenaries."[115][116]
  •   Spain: Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares said that "we want the Syrians to decide their future and we want it to be peaceful, stable and guaranteeing territorial integrity".[117]
  •   Turkey: President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan expressed hope for peace and stability in Syria after thirteen years of conflict. Foreign minister Hakan Fidan said that "Syria has reached a stage where the Syrian people will shape the future of their own country."[98] Fidan stated at a press conference in Doha that "there was no contact with Assad in his final days," emphasizing that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan "reached out to the regime to achieve national unity and peace, but Assad rejected it."[118]
  •   Ukraine: Foreign minister Andrii Sybiha said that Assad's downfall was the inevitable result of relying on Russian support, adding that Russian president Vladimir Putin "always betrays those who rely on him."[98]
  •   United Arab Emirates: UAE Foreign Ministry called on all Syrian parties “to prioritize wisdom" and to fulfil "the aspirations and ambitions of all segments of the Syrian population".[119] Anwar Gargash, a diplomatic adviser to President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, said that Assad "failed to use the lifelines thrown to him by various Arab countries" and attributed his government's collapse as a political failure.[98]
  •   United Kingdom: Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he welcomes the fall of "Assad's barbaric regime" and called for "peace and stability" in Syria.[120] British foreign secretary David Lammy described Bashar as "the rat of Damascus, fleeing to Moscow with his tail between his legs."[121][122]
  •   United States: President Joe Biden stated in a speech that "for the first time ever neither Russia nor Iran nor Hezbollah could defend this abhorrent regime in Syria," and claimed credit for Assad's overthrow, stating it was largely due to a combination of international sanctions, American military presence in Syria, and support for Israeli military operations against Iran-backed groups in the region.[123] He further said that "some of the rebel groups that took down Assad have their own grim record of terrorism and human right abuses" and his administration will be monitoring them.[124] Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Daniel Shapiro said that "no one should shed any tears over the end of the Assad regime", adding that the US would maintain a military presence in eastern Syria "to ensure the enduring defeat of ISIS". President-elect Donald Trump said that "Assad is gone. He fled his country" due to the fact that Assad's "protector," Russia, lost interest in Syria due to its war with Ukraine.[98]
  •   Yemen: The information minister of Yemen's internationally-recognized government, Moammar al-Eryani, condemned the Axis of Resistance, which he called Iran's "expansionist project, which used sectarian militias as tools to complete the Persian Crescent" and lauded its collapse. He added that the Yemeni people are "able to thwart the plans of Iran and its Houthi tool to violate their land and tamper with their destiny, just as those plans failed in Syria and Lebanon."[109]
International Governmental Organisations
  •   European Union: High Representative Kaja Kallas noted that the end of Bashar's "dictatorship is a positive and long-awaited development," adding that it "shows the weakness of Assad's backers, Russia and Iran."[98]
  •   United Nations: UN special envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen called Assad's downfall "a watershed moment in Syria's history" and expressed hope for "peace, reconciliation, dignity, and inclusion for all Syrians."[98]

Analysis

Senior fellow Natasha Hall from the Middle East Program of the Center for Strategic and International Studies attributed the government's collapse to the weakening of Assad's traditional allies, with Russia focused on its war in Ukraine and Iran facing regional challenges. Additionally, she posited that Syria's severe economic conditions, with approximately 90 percent of the population living below the poverty line and many living in displacement camps, contributed to the erosion of government support.[55]

Senior analyst Jerome Drevon from the International Crisis Group remarked that it would be "extremely challenging" for the Syrian opposition to decide on a new governing system in Syria given the diversity of the rebel coalition, noting that while "some groups are more structured, more organized," others are "more local entities."[125]

Russian analysts generally blamed Al-Assad for losing the war. Speaking to Komsomolskaya Pravda, Semyon Bagdasarov argued that the Syrian government failed to motivate its troops and to unite the various Syrian ethnic and religious group around its cause.[126] Similarly, political scientist Andrey Kortunov wrote that Al-Asad had failed to unite Syrians and achieve national reconciliation, comparing him to former Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, who was overthrown by the Taliban in 2021.[127] Journalist Vitaly Ryumshin shared this comparison, but partially defended the Syrian government, arguing that the lack of reform was due to economic sanctions on the country and loss of control over the oil's resources to the United States and the Kurds.[128] In a different view, Anton Mardasov, a Russian expert on the Middle East, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that the government's collapse was not due to Western sanctions but because of Al-Assad's failure to deal with the country's problems, specifically mentioning the economic crisis, endemic corruption and nepotism and "the loss of touch with reality and thinking in the paradigm of 50 years ago".[129]

Notes

  1. ^ Sources:[18][13][19][20][21][22]
  1. ^

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