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Summary
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English: Inspired by Kahneman, D., Sibony, O. & Sunstein, C. (2021), the figure shows the components of noise in human judgment, as laid out in that book, and illustrates that such statistical noise (which is unwanted variability) together with statistical bias (which is a shift in the average away from the true value that exists for certain types of judgments) together make up the size of the total error in the judgments in question. The proportions between the different noise components and the proportions between the statistical noise and the statistical bias vary from judgment to judgment, but the figure show the proportions that are most common according to Kahneman, Sibony and Sunstein: Typically, there is more noise than bias and more pattern noise than level noise, and typically stable pattern noise is the largest noise component. Finally, note the difference between statistical bias and psychological bias: statistical bias is a purely mathematical result of the judgments being systematically wrong in one direction, whereas psychological bias can arise from a multitude of cognitive effects in thinking, as well as from prejudices, and can in turn give rise both to statistical bias and to noise.
Svenska: Figuren är inspirerad av Kahneman, D., Sibony, O. & Sunstein, C. (2021). Den visar komponenterna av brus i mänsklig bedömning, så som framställt i den boken, och illustrerar att sådant statistiskt brus (vilket är oönskad variabilitet) tillsammans med statistisk bias (vilket är en förskjutning av genomsnittet bort från det sanna värdet som fins för vissa typer av bedömningar) tillsammans utgör storleken av det totala felet i bedömningarna i fråga. Proportionerna mellan de olika brus-komponenterna och mellan det statistiska bruset och den statistiska biasen varierar från fall till fall, men figuren visar de proportioner som är vanligast enligt Kahneman, Sibony och Sunstein: Typiskt sett är det mer brus än bias och mer mönster-brus än nivå-brus, och typiskt sett så är stabilt mönster-brus den största brus-komponenten. Slutligen, observera skillnaden mellan statistisk bias och psykologisk bias: statistisk bias är ett rent matematiskt resultat av att bedömningarna är systematiskt fel i en riktning, medan psykologisk bias kan uppstå från en stor mängd kognitiva effekter i tänkande, såväl som från fördomar, och kan i sin tur ge upphov både till statistisk bias och till brus. |
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| Source | Own work |
| Author | Tim Isaksson |
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| Date/Time | Thumbnail | Dimensions | User | Comment | |
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| current | 04:29, 3 July 2021 | | 642 × 786 (276 KB) | Tim Isaksson | Uploaded own work with UploadWizard |
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