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2021 Iranian presidential election

(Redirected from Iranian presidential election, 2021)

Presidential elections were held in Iran on 18 June 2021, the thirteenth since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979. Ebrahim Raisi, the then Chief Justice of Iran, was declared the winner in a highly controversial election. The election began with the mass disqualification of popular candidates by the Guardian Council, and broke records of the lowest turnout in Iranian electoral history (around 49%),[1] as well as had the highest share of protest blank, invalid and lost votes (around 13%)[2] despite a declaration by the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, considering protest voting religiously forbidden (haraam) as it would "weaken the regime."[3] Reporters Without Borders reported 42 cases of journalists being summoned or threatened for writing about candidates,[4] and the chief of the police threatened people who discouraged others to vote.[5]

2021 Iranian presidential election
← 2017 18 June 2021 2024 →
Turnout48.48% (Decrease 24.85pp)
 
Nominee Ebrahim Raisi Mohsen Rezaee Abdolnaser Hemmati
Party CCA RFII ECP
Alliance Principlists Principlists Reformists
Popular vote 18,021,945 3,440,835 2,443,387
Percentage 72.35% 13.81% 9.81%
Results by province
President before election

Hassan Rouhani
MDP

Elected President

Ebrahim Raisi
CCA

The Guardian Council announced the approval of seven candidates after the wide disqualification of prominent candidates, including Ali Larijani, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (the former president of Iran), and Eshaq Jahangiri (the Incumbent first Vice President), among others,[6] which provoked many activists and candidates to call for boycotting the election,[7] including Ahmadinejad, who said that he would neither participate nor recognize the election. Hassan Rouhani, the incumbent Iranian president, could not run for re-election under the constitution of Iran as he had already served his maximum two consecutive terms.

Considered a "show election" to elect the handpicked candidate of the Iranian Supreme Leader,[8] the elections were the first in Iranian history in which the reported number of invalid ballots, 3.84 million, outnumbered every non-winning candidate; the second-placed Mohsen Rezaee received 3.44 million votes.[9] The elections were widely described as "neither free nor fair", a "sham", and a "selection" by different international human rights organizations, such as Human Rights Watch[10] and the Center for Human Rights in Iran,[8] and others called for an investigation into Raisi's role as an overseer in the 1988 executions of Iranian political prisoners.[11][10]

Electoral system

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See also: Elections in Iran

The president of Iran is elected for a four-year term by universal adult suffrage with a minimum voting age of 18. The presidential term is renewable once in a consecutive manner. It is the country's highest directly elected official, the chief of the executive branch, and the second most important position after the Supreme Leader. Under Iran's political system, the Supreme Leader holds much more power than the president.[12]

According to Islamic Republic of Iran's constitution, any Iranian citizen who believes in Shia Islam, loyal to the Constitution, the ideology of Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist and the Islamic Republic can participate in election as a presidential candidate. An institution called the Election Monitoring Agency (EMA), managed by the Guardian Council vets registered candidates and selects a handful to run in the election.[13]

The Guardian Council does not publicly announce the reason for rejections of particular candidates, although those reasons are privately explained to each candidate. Women are not constitutionally restricted from running; however, all women who registered as candidates have been excluded from standing for election by the Guardian Council.[14][15] "We have not rejected any woman due to being a woman", the spokesman of the Guardian Council said. He clarified that there is no obstacle for women's registration in the elections.[16]

Those approved by the Guardian Council are put to a public vote on the weekend. The winner is the candidate who receive a majority (50% plus one) votes. If no candidate receives enough votes another election is held between the two candidates with the most votes the following Friday.[17] Iranians who voted during the election receive a stamp that indicate so on their birth certificates.[18]

According to the constitution, once the result is known, the Supreme Leader must sign the decree of the elected president, and if he refuses to sign, the elected president will not assume the presidency. So far, Supreme Leaders have always signed the decree of the elected president.[19][20] After that, the elected president must recite and sign an oath in a session of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, in the presence of the members of the Guardian Council and the head of the Supreme Court. In the Oath, the elected president must swear that he will guard the official religion (Islam), protect the Constitution and the Islamic Republic, and that he will dedicate himself to the service of the nation, its people, and its religion (among other things).[17]

Offline electronic voting system

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Having a national identification number is required for voting.[21][22] The identification number system was developed and programmed by the Telecommunication Company of Iran.[23] 33,000 virtual ballot boxes are used.[24]

Simultaneous elections

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The election was held concurrently with city and village council elections.[25][26][27] In some electoral districts and provinces midterm elections of the Islamic Consultative Assembly and the Assembly of Experts were also held.[28][29]

Cost of the election

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Further information: 2021–22 Iranian national budget

1170 billion toman (approximately US$277.4 million)[30] was allocated in the national budget, of which 160 billion was allocated to the Guardian Council for oversight and supervision, and the rest (1010 billion) was for the Ministry of Interior, which actually runs the election.[31]

Polling places abroad

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234 polling places were set up in 133 countries so that Iranians abroad could vote. 3.5 million members of the Iranian diaspora were eligible to vote in the election.[32][33] The Canadian government did not allow Iran to operate polling places in Canada.[34]

Candidates

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The Guardian Council is responsible for approving candidates who have registered to run. The Guardian Council disqualified over 600 applicants, including all the women who had registered, ultimately approving seven candidates, three of whom withdrew days before the election.[35]

Approved

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The Interior Ministry released the official list of candidates qualified by the Guardian Council on 25 May 2021. The following seven candidates were approved by the council.[36]

Withdrew

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Several candidates withdrew from the election, with three withdrawing after they had been approved by the Guardian Council. All the candidates who withdrew endorsed a candidate.

During election

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Before election

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Rejected

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More than 600 applicants were rejected, including:

Announced but not registered

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Election issues

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Effect of COVID-19

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Further information: COVID-19 pandemic in Iran

The government had administered 4 million COVID-19 vaccine doses, which is about 2.7% of the country's population (82.91 million).[69] Incumbent President Rouhani predicted that the virus breakout could affect voter turnout.[70][71] The government has limited the maximum number of people allowed to gather at polling places.[72]

The Election Office vaccinated staff by obtaining vaccines meant for old people.[73] Election staff are tested for COVID-19 with PCR tests.[74]

Raisi held a rally despite the pandemic according to the Associated Press.[75] The hospitals were readied for a 5th wave of the pandemic.[76][77][78][79][80]

Fatwa

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The Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei[81][82][83] and the Friday Prayers Imam of Isfahan had declared that blank votes are considered haram, and not voting would be considered a major sin.[84][85][86]

TV debates

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Format

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The moderator asked every candidate different random questions, regarding economics, social and political, and people's issues. Additionally, 3 TV chats were televised, hosting 7 candidates.[87][88][89][90][91][92]

The First Debate

Two moderate candidates (Hemmati and Mehralizade) faced five hardliner candidates.

Hemmati opened his speech by criticizing the fact that women and minorities were refused the right to run in the election, described the four hardliners besides Raisi as "covering" candidates, indicating that they had only participated to be defenders of Raisi in the debate and asked them to swear that they would not drop out of the election in favour of Raisi. He accused Reza'i of sabotaging the incumbent moderate government of Iran's effort to join the anti-money-laundering organization FATF and asked him whether it would be sane to solve the economic problems of Iran by taking American hostages (as Reza'i had indicated in a previous controversial interview). He asked Ra'isi, the chief justice of Iran and almost certain next president of Iran, to be given a promise (or a "safe conduct") not to be prosecuted after the conclusion of the elections.

Mehralizade, another moderate candidate, criticized Ra'isi for not having pursued an academic education besides having completed the six grades of school, and said that despite the respect he has for Ra'isi's Islamic Seminary Diploma, he does not believe that that is enough education for a person who wants to handle a country, and said that Ra'isi suffers from a "restless-position syndrome" (a humorous allusion to the "restless-hand syndrome" which is the Persian term for the Alien Hand Syndrome) for pursuing one high position after another. In response to this claim, Raisi asked Mehralizade "why are you jealous of my popularity among the people?".

Reza'i and Zakani, both hardliner candidates, accused Hemmati, the then Governor of the Iranian Central Bank, of having issued fiat money, and Zakani, in response to Hemmati's criticism of widespread rejection of candidates not aligned enough with the want of the Guardian Council, said "If those candidates had been approved, you would not be here".[93]

Opinion polls

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Hypothetical polls

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Hypothetical polls were done before the Guardian Council had announced who is approved to run. Therefore, these polls include several candidates (like Ahmadinejad) who were disqualified and are therefore ineligible to run.

Fieldwork date Poll source Sample
size 		Margin of error                   Other
Raisi Ahmadinejad Ghalibaf Zarif Khatami Jalili Mohammad Larijani Aref
22–28 October 2020 Stasis[94] 1,136 — N/A 37% 10% N/A N/A 3% N/A 2% 2% 17% None, 29% Don't know or other names
February 2021 Iran Poll[95] ~2,000 3.1% 15% 28% 6% 5% 4% 1% 1% N/A N/A 33% Don't know or other names

Polls

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These polls include all seven candidates who were approved by the Guardian Council. Note that Jalili, Mehralizadeh, and Zakani all withdrew after this poll was conducted.

Fieldwork date Poll source Sample
size 		Margin of error               Haven't Decided Yet
Raisi Jalili Hemmati Rezaee Ghazizadeh Zakani Mehralizadeh
27 May - 3 June 2021 Gamaan[96](Internet poll) 68,271

(literate over 19 years old)

5% 59% 8% 3% 2.5% >1% >1% >1% 25%

ISPA polls

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Main article: Iranian Students Polling Agency

The ISPA (Iranian Students Polling Agency) is considered as one of the most reliable pollsters in Iran. They correctly predicted the results of the 2017 election.[97][98] ISPA polls projected that Ebrahim Raisi was heavily favored to win the election.[99]

Wave Fieldwork date Sample Size

(Over 18 years old)

Error margin Method
4 April 2021[100] 1,569 N/A Phone call
5 8–10 May 2021[101] 1,553 N/A Phone call
7 26–27 May 2021[102] N/A N/A Phone call
8 30 May – 1 June 2021[103] 5,159 N/A Face-to-face Inquiry
10 9–10 June[104] 5,121 N/A Face-to-face Inquiry
11 14–15 June[105] 5,094 N/A Face-to-face Inquiry
12 15–16 June[106] 6,582 N/A Face-to-face Inquiry

Results

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The declared results showed a total of 28,750,736 people cast votes (48.48% of the eligible population), including 18 million votes for the victor of the election, Ebrahim Raisi. Mohsen Rezai was the candidate receiving the most votes as a non-winner with 13.81% of the valid votes, although his votes were lower than the number of blank, invalid, or lost votes.

The results of the election broke many national records. The lowest turnout in an Iranian election in four decades (since the 1979 Iranian Revolution) was recorded,[107] the largest share of non-valid and non-received issued voted by far were recorded (13.1% of the votes were counted as invalid), the second being 2005's 4.2%,[108][2] the first time in Iranian history that no non-winner was able to break the invalid voter threshold, and the first time only a minority of the electoral roll engaged in the election.[109] In the capital city, Tehran, only around a fourth of the eligible population voted, including the cast invalid votes.[110] In some other major cities, such as Arak, Hamadan, Karaj,[111] and Ahvaz,[112] the largest number of the concurrent municipal elections votes were the invalid ones.

The exact number of votes each candidate received has not been yet released for every single Iranian province, though turnout for each is made public. The highest provincial turnout has gone to South Khorasan and the lowest one to Tehran, with around 74% and 34% respectively, and this figure does include the unusually large number of invalid/blank voters as voters.[113] In some provinces with historically high turnouts, the figures underwent a sharp drop in this election, making voters in some large provinces into a minority (made bold here), while others lost big amounts of vote while still keeping the majority. Some examples are Tehran (66% to 34%), Alborz (80% to 41%), Yazd (93% to 58%), Qazvin (83% to 52%), Mazandaran (91% to 60%), and Isfahan (74% to 43.8%). Twelve provinces in total recorded a turnout below 50%, a figure which went to no province in the previous election.[114]

Because whether an adult has participated in the previous elections or not is recorded in his/her identity card and subsequently considered in job interviews and some other situations, a large number of people have historically chosen to boycott the election and get a stamp in the ID at the same time, by voting a protest vote (voting blank or jokingly voting for non-existent/comical characters or even carrying the ballot with them out of the polling station), contributing to a very large share of votes being invalid/non-received, a phenomenon that is much more pronounced in this election (around thirteen percent of the votes being invalid).[2]

For this reason, the ratio of received valid votes to all issued ballots is occasionally calculated by some sources and compared together and/or to that of the previous elections. For example, Alborz province, which had a turnout figure close to 80% in the 2017 Iranian presidential election but fell to 41% in 2021,[114] had only 48.79% of its votes being valid,[115] which could mean that only around 20% of the eligible population of the province have voted, of which only a minority have voted for Raisi.

Upon being declared the winner, Raisi was congratulated by three of his four competitors on 19 June,[116] and president Rouhani paid a congratulatory visit to him that evening.

Jamal Arf, the head of the Election Office, announced updated details of the results after gathering details of votes from 91 ballot boxes and departments monitoring the elections across the country. Per the updated results, Raisi received more than 18 million votes. Meanwhile, 100,231 invalid votes that were cast were not collected and thus kept out of the count. While 28,989,529 turned up for the election, only 28,750,736 cast their vote.[117]

CandidatePartyVotes%
Ebrahim RaisiCombatant Clergy Association18,021,94572.35
Mohsen RezaeeResistance Front of Islamic Iran3,440,83513.81
Abdolnaser HemmatiExecutives of Construction Party2,443,3879.81
Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh HashemiIslamic Law Party1,003,6504.03
Total24,909,817100.00
Valid votes24,909,81786.64
Invalid/blank votes3,840,91913.36
Total votes28,750,736100.00
Registered voters/turnout59,310,30748.48
Source: Fars News

By province

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Iranian provinces and capitals turnout, 2021 and 2017[118]
Name 2021 Provincial 2017 Provincial Provincial Swing Province Capital 2021 Capital Turnout
Alborz 41.35 79.1   37.75 Karaj 31.5
Ardabil 54.93 74   19.07 Ardabil 46.2
Azerbaijan, East 44.25 69.63   25.38 Tabriz 30
Azerbaijan, West 46.78 68.74   21.96 Urmia 44.1
Bushehr 58.73 71.29   12.56 Bushehr 48.3
Chahar Mahaal and Bakhtiari 54.38 77.82   23.44 Shahrekord 39.9
Fars 48.73 71.64   22.91 Shiraz 33.3
Gilan 57.35 82.84   25.49 Rasht 33.2
Golestan 61 78.47   17.47 Gorgan 45.1
Hamadan 46.48 73.8   27.32 Hamadan 39.8
Hormozgān 58.7 78.64   19.94 Bandar Abbas 51
Ilam 63.11 80.27   17.16 Ilam 47.9
Isfahan 43.81 73.99   30.18 Isfahan 34.6
Kerman 60.58 74.18   13.6 Kerman 50.4
Kermanshah 46.04 72.98   26.94 Kermanshah 34.9
Khorasan, North 63.97 80.72   16.75 Bojnourd 56.5
Khorasan, Razavi 55.09 77.4   22.31 Mashhad 45.7
Khorasan, South 74.38 85.22   10.84 Birjand 60.1
Khuzestan 49.98 70   20.02 Ahvaz 36.2
Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad 62.59 71.22   8.63 Yasuj 34.5
Kurdistan 37.37 58.72   21.35 Sanandaj 26.6
Lorestan 48.16 60.15   11.99 Khorramabad 43.6
Markazi 48.94 75.58   26.64 Arak 38.4
Mazandaran 60.75 90.95   30.2 Sari 56
Qazvin 52.3 82.9   30.6 Qazvin 45.4
Qom 53.17 78.1   24.93 Qom 53.2
Semnan 54.24 80.48   26.24 Semnan 39.5
Sistan and Baluchestan 62.75 75.4   12.65 Zahedan 49.2
Tehran 34.39 66.2   31.81 Tehran 24.1
Yazd 58.45 93.4   34.95 Yazd 43.6
Zanjan 53.65 75.92   22.27 Zanjan 44.4
Iran 48.44 73.33   24.89 Tehran 24.1

Reactions

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Pre-election

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  •   In Belgium, exiled Iranians demonstrated in Brussels against the Iranian government.[citation needed]
  •   The Biden administration responded to Iran's mass disqualification of candidates for its upcoming presidential election by saying the Iranian people should be free to choose their own leaders. The statement from the White House coincides with sharp criticism of Iran's electoral system from Iranian human rights activists and U.S. conservatives, who view the election as neither free nor fair.[119]

Post-election

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Internal

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  • Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei expressed contentment with the low turnout and said that blank and void votes were votes "in support for the system".[120]

Sovereign states and international organizations

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Non-state actors

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References

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