The 2016 United States Senate election in Idaho was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Idaho, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held May 17.
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  Crapo: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Sturgill: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% No data | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Republican Senator Mike Crapo won re-election to a fourth term in office.[1]
Republican primary
editCandidates
editDeclared
edit- Mike Crapo, incumbent U.S. Senator[2]
Declined
edit- Russ Fulcher, former state senator and candidate for governor in 2014[3][4]
- Raúl Labrador, U.S. Representative[5]
- Mike Simpson, U.S. Representative
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mike Crapo (incumbent) | 119,633 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 119,633 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
editCandidates
editDeclared
edit- Jerry Sturgill, businessman[7]
Declined
edit- Richard H. Stallings, former U.S. Representative, former chairman of the Idaho Democratic Party and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1992[8]
- Larry LaRocco, former U.S. Representative, nominee for lieutenant governor in 2006 and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2008[3]
- Walt Minnick, former U.S. Representative and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1996[3]
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jerry Sturgill | 26,471 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 26,471 | 100.00% | ||
Third Party and Independent Candidates
editConstitution Party
editDeclared
edit- Pro-Life (formerly known as Marvin Richardson), organic strawberry farmer, anti-abortion activist and perennial candidate[9][10][11]
- Ray Writz[11]
Results
edit
Writz
- Writz—100%
- Writz—80–90%
- Writz—70–80%
- Writz—60–70%
- Writz—50–60%
Writz/Pro-Life tie
- Writz & Pro-Life tie—50%
Pro-Life
- Pro-Life—50–60%
- Pro-Life—60–70%
- Pro-Life—100%
No votes
- No votes
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Constitution | Ray J. Writz | 131 | 59.5% | |
| Constitution | Pro-Life | 89 | 40.5% | |
| Total votes | 220 | 100.0% | ||
Independents
editCandidates
editWithdrawn
editGeneral election
editDebates
edit| Dates | Location | Crapo | Sturgill | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 23, 2016 | Boise, Idaho | Participant | Participant | [13] |
Polling
editGraphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mike Crapo (R) |
Jerry Sturgill (D) |
Ray Writz (C) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey[14] | November 1–7, 2016 | 612 | ± 4.6% | 58% | 39% | — | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey[15] | October 31–November 6, 2016 | 557 | ± 4.6% | 58% | 36% | — | — | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey[16] | October 28–November 3, 2016 | 498 | ± 4.6% | 61% | 35% | — | — | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey[17] | October 27–November 2, 2016 | 442 | ± 4.6% | 60% | 34% | — | — | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey[18] | October 26–November 1, 2016 | 394 | ± 4.6% | 61% | 32% | — | — | 7% |
| SurveyMonkey[19] | October 25–31, 2016 | 447 | ± 4.6% | 61% | 34% | — | — | 5% |
| Emerson College[20] | October 21–23, 2016 | 1,023 | ± 3.0% | 57% | 24% | — | 12% | 7% |
| Dan Jones & Associates[21] | August 18–31, 2016 | 602 | ± 4.0% | 57% | 20% | 4% | 4% | 15% |
| Dan Jones & Associates[22] | July 5–16, 2016 | 601 | ± 4.0% | 57% | 20% | 4% | 4% | 15% |
| Lake Research Partners[23] | July 5–10, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 37% | 35% | 2% | — | 25% |
| Dan Jones & Associates[24] | May 18–June 4, 2016 | 603 | ± 4.0% | 48% | 25% | 7% | 9% | 10% |
| Dan Jones & Associates[25] | April 8–19, 2016 | 603 | ± 4.0% | 53% | 17% | 5% | 5% | 20% |
Predictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[26] | Safe R | November 2, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[27] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[28] | Safe R | November 3, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[29] | Safe R | November 8, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[30] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mike Crapo (incumbent) | 449,017 | 66.13% | −5.06% | |
| Democratic | Jerry Sturgill | 188,249 | 27.73% | +2.80% | |
| Constitution | Ray J. Writz | 41,677 | 6.14% | +2.26% | |
| Total votes | 678,943 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
editBy congressional district
editCrapo won both congressional districts.[32]
| District | Crapo | Sturgill | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 69% | 25% | Raúl Labrador |
| 2nd | 63% | 30% | Mike Simpson |
References
edit- ^ Russell, Betsy Z. (August 18, 2014). "Crapo says he'll seek another term". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved August 29, 2014.
- ^ Russell, Betsy Z. (May 12, 2015). "Crapo announces he'll run for a fourth term in the U.S. Senate". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved May 29, 2015.
- ^ a b c "RRHElections Senate Rankings – April 2015". RRH Elections. April 18, 2015. Retrieved October 3, 2015.
- ^ Russell, Betsy Z. (June 10, 2015). "Fulcher endorses Crapo for re-election". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved October 3, 2015.
- ^ Easley, Jonathan (February 13, 2015). "Labrador won't run for Senate". The Hill. Retrieved February 16, 2015.
- ^ a b c "Official Primary Election Statewide Totals". Idaho Secretary of State. Retrieved July 20, 2016.
- ^ "Declaration for 2016" (PDF). Retrieved March 13, 2016.
- ^ Malloy, Chuck (July 5, 2015). "Democrats Have Issues with Crapo, But No Candidate". Idaho Politics Weekly. Retrieved October 3, 2015.
- ^ Brown, Nathan (May 13, 2015). "Crapo Announces Re-Election Bid, Campaign Team". Twin Falls Times-News. Retrieved October 7, 2015.
- ^ a b Brown, Nathan (August 12, 2015). "Federal Lands, Refugees and Regulations Drive Crapo Town Hall in Castleford". Twin Falls Times-News. Retrieved October 7, 2015.
- ^ a b "Idaho primary: Who's running for county, state, federal office". Idaho Statesman. March 11, 2016. Retrieved March 24, 2016.
- ^ "July Quarterly and Termination Report" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. July 6, 2015. Retrieved October 7, 2015.
- ^ Full debate
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Dan Jones & Associates
- ^ Dan Jones & Associates
- ^ Lake Research Partners
- ^ Dan Jones & Associates
- ^ Dan Jones & Associates
- ^ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
- ^ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
- ^ "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
- ^ "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
- ^ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
- ^ "Nov 08, 2016 General Election Results". Idaho Secretary of State. Retrieved December 19, 2016.
- ^ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 20, 2024.
External links
editOfficial campaign websites