2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
	Lynch: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Stephen: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70%; 70–80%; Tie: 40–50%
Governor before election; John Lynch; Democratic	Elected Governor ; John Lynch; Democratic

The 2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic Governor John Lynch was re-elected to his fourth and final term.^[1]

New Hampshire is one of only two states where the Governor serves for a two-year term, the other being neighboring Vermont. Lynch was re-elected by landslide margins in 2006 and 2008, and enjoyed historically high approval ratings. In early 2010, his approval rating showed a downward trend, with an April poll indicating that his approval had fallen below 50% (44% approve, 42% disapprove).^[2] After the primary elections in mid-September, Lynch's approval rating rebounded (51% approve, 38% disapprove).^[3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

John Lynch, incumbent Governor^[4]
Timothy Robertson, state representative
Frank Sullivan

Results

Democratic primary results^[5]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	John Lynch (incumbent)	49,832	87.5
	Democratic	Timothy Robertson	3,771	6.6
	Democratic	Frank Sullivan	3,377	5.9
Total votes			56,980	97.3

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Frank Robert Emiro Sr., state representative
Jack Kimball, businessman^[6]
John Stephen, former Health and Human Services Commissioner^[7]
Karen Testerman, conservative activist^[6]

Declined

Kelly Ayotte, New Hampshire Attorney General^[8]
Frank Guinta, Mayor of Manchester^[9]
Chuck Morse, former State Senator^[10]
John E. Sununu, former U.S. Senator

Polling

Poll source	Dates administered	Jack Kimball	John Stephen	Karen Testerman
Public Policy Polling^[11]	September 11–12, 2010	24%	45%	8%
Public Policy Polling^[12]	July 23–25, 2010	15%	26%	5%
Public Policy Polling^[13]	April 17–18, 2010	10%	29%	15%

Results

Results by county:

Stephen–60–70%

Stephen–50–60%

Stephen–40–50%

Republican primary results^[5]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	John Stephen	77,962	61.6
	Republican	Jack Kimball	31,581	24.9
	Republican	Karen Testerman	12,708	10.0
	Republican	Frank Emiro	4,394	3.5
Total votes			126,645	96.7

General election

Candidates

John Babiarz, Libertarian
John Lynch, Democratic
John Stephen, Republican

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report^[14]	Tossup	October 14, 2010
Rothenberg^[15]	Lean D	October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics^[16]	Lean D	November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[17]	Lean D	October 28, 2010
CQ Politics^[18]	Likely D	October 28, 2010

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	John Lynch (D)	John Stephen (R)
Rasmussen Reports^[19]	October 27, 2010	51%	45%
WMUR/UNH^[20]	October 7–12, 2010	51%	38%
American Research Group^[21]	October 3–5, 2010	51%	41%
Granite State Poll^[22]	October 1, 2010	51%	34%
American Research Group^[21]	September 22–26, 2010	42%	40%
Rasmussen Reports^[23]	September 15, 2010	48%	46%
Public Policy Polling^[24]	September 11–12, 2010	51%	39%
Rasmussen Reports^[25]	August 5, 2010	50%	39%
Public Policy Polling^[26]	July 23–25, 2010	51%	34%
Rasmussen Reports^[27]	May 26, 2010	47%	35%
Public Policy Polling^[28]	April 17–18, 2010	47%	36%
Rasmussen Reports^[29]	April 7, 2010	47%	37%
Rasmussen Reports^[30]	March 8, 2010	50%	35%
Granite State Poll^[31]	January 27-February 3, 2010	50%	30%

Hypothetical polling

With Kimball

Poll Source	Dates Administered	John Lynch (D)	Jack Kimball (R)
Public Policy Polling^[26]	July 23–25, 2010	52%	29%
Rasmussen Reports^[27]	May 26, 2010	50%	31%
Public Policy Polling^[28]	April 17–18, 2010	47%	35%
Rasmussen Reports^[29]	April 7, 2010	50%	34%
Rasmussen Reports^[30]	March 8, 2010	51%	32%
Research 2000^[32]	February 1–3, 2010	59%	13%
Rasmussen Reports^[33]	January 12, 2010	51%	32%
Rasmussen Reports^[34]	September 14, 2009	52%	31%

With Morse

Poll Source	Dates Administered	John Lynch (D)	Chuck Morse (R)
Rasmussen Reports^[34]	September 14, 2009	51%	29%

With Sununu

Poll Source	Dates Administered	John Lynch (D)	John Sununu (R)
Granite State Poll^[35]	September 25-October 2, 2009	50%	37%
Rasmussen Reports^[34]	September 14, 2009	48%	43%

With Testerman

Poll Source	Dates Administered	John Lynch (D)	Karen Testerman (R)
Public Policy Polling^[26]	July 23–25, 2010	52%	28%
Rasmussen Reports^[27]	May 26, 2010	51%	32%
Public Policy Polling^[28]	April 17–18, 2010	47%	29%
Rasmussen Reports^[29]	April 7, 2010	50%	33%
Rasmussen Reports^[30]	March 8, 2010	54%	28%
Rasmussen Reports^[33]	January 12, 2010	53%	30%

Results

2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	John Lynch (incumbent)	240,346	52.63%	−17.57%
	Republican	John Stephen	205,616	45.03%	+17.43%
	Libertarian	John Babiarz	10,089	2.21%	+0.02%
	Write-in		537	<0.01%	N/A
Total votes			456,588	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

Counties that swung from Democratic to Republican

Rockingham (largest municipality: Derry)

References

^ "NH Gov. John Lynch Running for 4th Term - FOX44NOW.COM - Burlington/Plattsburgh News, Weather and Sports". FOX44NOW.COM. Archived from the original on March 1, 2012. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
^ "Lynch Leads All Republicans for Re-election in N.H." (PDF). Public Policy Polling. April 23, 2010.
^ http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NH_916.pdf ^{[dead link‍]}
^ "Gov. Lynch could face difficult re-election bid » New Hampshire » EagleTribune.com, North Andover, MA". Eagletribune.com. April 18, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.^{[permanent dead link‍]}
^ ^a ^b "New Hampshire Gubernatorial Primary Results". Politico. September 14, 2010. Retrieved September 14, 2010.
^ ^a ^b John Distaso (December 9, 2009). "Testerman steps into the ring in governor's race". The Union Leader. Archived from the original on February 20, 2010. Retrieved January 1, 2010.
^ "John Stephen for Governor | New Leadership for New Hampshire". Johnstephen.com. Archived from the original on September 15, 2008. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
^ "Republicans land top recruit in New Hampshire - The Scorecard". Politico.Com. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
^ "Frank Guinta for Congress". Teamguinta.com. July 29, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
^ "Downing runs for sheriff, Morse for NH Senate » Latest News » EagleTribune.com, North Andover, MA". Eagletribune.com. May 27, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
^ Public Policy Polling
^ Public Policy Polling
^ Public Policy Polling
^ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
^ "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
^ "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
^ "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
^ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ WMUR/UNH
^ ^a ^b American Research Group
^ Granite State Poll
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Public Policy Polling
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ ^a ^b ^c Public Policy Polling
^ ^a ^b ^c Rasmussen Reports
^ ^a ^b ^c Public Policy Polling
^ ^a ^b ^c Rasmussen Reports
^ ^a ^b ^c Rasmussen Reports
^ Granite State Poll
^ Research 2000
^ ^a ^b Rasmussen Reports
^ ^a ^b ^c Rasmussen Reports
^ Granite State Poll

External links

Election Division at New Hampshire Secretary of State
New Hampshire Governor Candidates at Project Vote Smart
Campaign contributions for 2010 New Hampshire Governor from Follow the Money
New Hampshire Governor 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
2010 New Hampshire Gubernatorial General Election: All Head-to-Head Matchups graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
Election 2010: New Hampshire Governor from Rasmussen Reports
2010 New Hampshire Governor Race from Real Clear Politics
2010 New Hampshire Governor's Race from CQ Politics
Race Profile in The New York Times

Official campaign sites (Archived)

[1] "NH Gov. John Lynch Running for 4th Term - FOX44NOW.COM - Burlington/Plattsburgh News, Weather and Sports". FOX44NOW.COM. Archived from the original on March 1, 2012. Retrieved August 21, 2010.

[2] "Lynch Leads All Republicans for Re-election in N.H." (PDF). Public Policy Polling. April 23, 2010.

[3] ttp://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NH_916.pdf ^{[dead link‍]}

[4] "Gov. Lynch could face difficult re-election bid » New Hampshire » EagleTribune.com, North Andover, MA". Eagletribune.com. April 18, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.^{[permanent dead link‍]}

[Politico-5] "New Hampshire Gubernatorial Primary Results". Politico. September 14, 2010. Retrieved September 14, 2010.

[testerman-6] John Distaso (December 9, 2009). "Testerman steps into the ring in governor's race". The Union Leader. Archived from the original on February 20, 2010. Retrieved January 1, 2010.

[7] "John Stephen for Governor | New Leadership for New Hampshire". Johnstephen.com. Archived from the original on September 15, 2008. Retrieved August 21, 2010.

[8] "Republicans land top recruit in New Hampshire - The Scorecard". Politico.Com. Retrieved August 21, 2010.

[9] "Frank Guinta for Congress". Teamguinta.com. July 29, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.

[10] "Downing runs for sheriff, Morse for NH Senate » Latest News » EagleTribune.com, North Andover, MA". Eagletribune.com. May 27, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.

[11] Public Policy Polling

[12] Public Policy Polling

[13] Public Policy Polling

[14] "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.

[15] "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.

[16] "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.

[17] "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.

[18] "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.

[19] Rasmussen Reports

[20] WMUR/UNH

[American_Research_Group-21] American Research Group

[22] Granite State Poll

[23] Rasmussen Reports

[24] Public Policy Polling

[25] Rasmussen Reports

[Public_Policy_Polling-26] Public Policy Polling

[Rasmussen_Reports-27] Rasmussen Reports

[publicpolicypolling.com-28] Public Policy Polling

[rasmussenreports.com-29] Rasmussen Reports

[ReferenceA-30] Rasmussen Reports

[31] Granite State Poll

[32] Research 2000

[ReferenceB-33] Rasmussen Reports

[ReferenceC-34] Rasmussen Reports

[35] Granite State Poll

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