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Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election

(Redirected from Leadership approval opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election)

Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election is being carried out continually by various organisations to gauge voting intention.

Background

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Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2024 general election on 4 July to the present day.

Under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022, the next general election must be held no later than Wednesday 15 August 2029. The Act mandates that, if it has not already been dissolved at the request of the prime minister, Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met and polling day occurs no more than 25 working days later.

Opinion polling

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Election polling

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Most national opinion polls do not cover Northern Ireland, which has different major political parties from the rest of the United Kingdom. This distinction is made in the tables below in the area column, where "GB" means Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales), and "UK" means the entire United Kingdom. Plaid Cymru only stand candidates in Wales and the Scottish National Party only stand candidates in Scotland. Due to rounding total figures might not add up to 100%.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Area Sample
size 		Lab Con Reform Lib Dems Green SNP Others Lead
11–12 Jul We Think GB 2,005 39% 20% 16% 11% 9% 2% TBA 19
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – UK – 33.7% 23.7% 14.3% 12.2% 6.8% 2.5% 6.8% 10.0
GB 34.7% 24.4% 14.7% 12.5% 6.9% 2.5% 4.3% 10.3

Leadership approval polling

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Various organisations have carried out opinion polling to gauge the opinions that voters hold towards political leaders. The polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Sample
size 		Keir Starmer Rishi Sunak Nigel Farage Ed Davey Carla Denyer Adrian Ramsay
Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net
17–19 Jul 2024 Opinium 2,010 38% 20% +18 20% 42% –22 – 25% 18% +7 21% 15% +6 21% 15% +6
8–14 Jul 2024 Morning Consult - 45% 25% +20 – – – – –
11–12 Jul 2024 We Think 2,005 38% 15% +23 21% 31% –10 – – – –
5–8 Jul 2024 YouGov[1] 2,102 44% 47% –3 23% 70% –47 27% 65% –38 34% 29% +5 13% 16% –3 7% 14% –7
5–6 Jul 2024 Ipsos[2] 1,141 40% 33% +7 21% 57% –36 26% 52% –26 29% 26% +3 – –

Party approval polling

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Dates
conducted 		Pollster Sample
size 		Lab Con Reform Lib Dems Green
Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net
5–8 Jul 2024 YouGov[1] 2,102 47% 46% +1 21% 72% –51 28% 62% –34 45% 37% +8 46% 38% +8
5–6 Jul 2024 Ipsos[2] 1,141 40% 34% +6 20% 59% –39 25% 51% –26 29% 28% +1 33% 28% +6

Preferred prime minister polling

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Some opinion pollsters ask voters which of the party leaders they would prefer as prime minister:

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Sample
size 		Keir Starmer Rishi Sunak Nigel Farage Ed Davey Carla Denyer Adrian Ramsay None Don't know Lead
17–19 Jul 2024 Opinium 2,010 37% 14% - - - - 34% 15% 23
11–12 Jul 2024 We Think 2,005 30% 11% 14% 5% 4% 1% 33% 16

References

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  1. ^ a b Smith, Matthew (July 9, 2024). "Keir Starmer favourability rises 8pts following election victory". YouGov UK.
  2. ^ a b "5th - 6th July 2024: PUBLIC: Political Pulse: Campaign Tracker Week 7: Post election: Adults aged 18+ in GB" (PDF). Ipsos.
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