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List of Predictions for Autonomous Tesla Vehicles by Elon Musk

This is a list of predictions for autonomous Tesla vehicles made by Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, Inc. The predictions concern Tesla's suite of advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) functions, currently marketed as Full Self-Driving (Supervised) ("FSD"), and provide estimates for when Tesla will achieve fully autonomous driving, requiring no human intervention, which SAE considers Level 5 automation. Tesla does not classify FSD according to the SAE levels of autonomy, but has acknowledged that full autonomy is "dependent on achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers as demonstrated by billions of miles of experience, as well as regulatory approval, which may take longer in some jurisdictions".[1]

Musk has publicly stated estimated timelines and intended capabilities of the system since at least 2013.[2] FSD and Autopilot are classified as SAE Level 2 ADAS, as of January 2024.[3][1]

Elon Musk's predictions for autonomous Tesla vehicles
Date Prediction Quote Met Ref(s).
Sep 2013 2016 "We should be able to do 90 percent of miles driven [autonomously] within three years." No[citation needed] [2]
Oct 2014 2015 "A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles can be on auto. For sure highway travel." AP/HW1 released Oct 2015 for highways[4] [5][6]
Oct 2015 2018 "From a technology standpoint, Tesla will have a car that can do full autonomy in about three years, maybe a bit sooner." No[citation needed] [7]
Dec 2015 2018 "We're going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years." No[citation needed] [8]
Jan 2016 2018 "Ultimately you'll be able to summon your car anywhere … your car can get to you. I think that within two years, you'll be able to summon your car from across the country. It will meet you wherever your phone is … and it will just automatically charge itself along the entire journey." No[citation needed] [9]
Jun 2016 2019 "I consider autonomous driving to be a basically solved problem. ... We're less than two years away from complete autonomy. Regulators however will take at least another year; they'll want to see billions of miles of data." No[citation needed] [10]
Oct 2016 Dec 2017 "Our goal is, and I feel pretty good about this goal, that we'll be able to do a demonstration drive of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York, from home in LA to let's say dropping you off in Times Square in New York, and then having the car go park itself, by the end of next year. Without the need for a single touch, including the charger." No[citation needed] [11][12][13]
Apr 2017 Dec 2017 "November or December of this year, we should be able to go from a parking lot in California to a parking lot in New York, no controls touched at any point during the entire journey." No[citation needed] [14]
May 2017 2019 "I think [a driver will be able to sleep at the wheel in] about two years. So the real trick of it is not how do you make it work say 99.9 percent of the time, because, like, if a car crashes one in a thousand times, then you're probably still not going to be comfortable falling asleep. You shouldn't be, certainly." No[citation needed] [15][16]
Feb 2018 Aug 2018 "[Autopilot is] going to kind of be like [the progression of DeepMind's AlphaGo] for self-driving. It will feel like well this is a lame driver, lame driver. Like okay, that's a pretty good driver. Like holy cow, this driver's good. It'll be like that. I mean, timing-wise, I think we could probably do a coast-to-coast drive in three months, six months at the outside." No[citation needed] [17]
Nov 2018 2019 "You know, I think we'll get to full self-driving next year. As a generalized solution, I think. But that's a ... Like we're on track to do that next year. So I don't know. I don't think anyone else is on track to do it next year." No[citation needed] [18]
Feb 2019 Dec 2019 "I think we will be feature complete — full self-driving — this year, meaning the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up and take you all the way to your destination without an intervention, this year. I would say I am of certain of that. That is not a question mark." No[citation needed] [19]
Apr 2019 2020 "I feel very confident predicting that there will be autonomous robotaxis from Tesla next year — not in all jurisdictions because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere." "From our standpoint, if you fast forward a year, maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we'll have over a million robotaxis on the road." No[citation needed] [20]
Apr 2020 2020 "[Robotaxi] functionality still looking good for this year. Regulatory approval is the big unknown." No[citation needed] [21][22]
Jul 2020 Dec 2020 "I'm extremely confident that level five - or essentially complete autonomy - will happen and I think will happen very quickly. I feel like we are very close. I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year. There are no fundamental challenges remaining. There are many small problems. And then there's the challenge of solving all those small problems and putting the whole system together." No[citation needed] [23][24]
Jan 2021 Dec 2021 "And it's now actually more -- it's more common than not for the car to have no interventions, even on a complex drive. So -- and this is -- basically I'm highly confident the car will drive itself for the reliability in excess of a human this year. This is a very big deal." No[citation needed] [25]
Apr 2022 Dec 2022 "The whole road system is made for biological neural nets and eyes. And so actually, when you think about it, in order to solve driving, we have to solve neural nets and cameras to a degree of capability that is on par with, or really exceeds humans. And I think we will achieve that this year." No[citation needed] [26]
Aug 2022 Dec 2022 "The two technologies I am focused on, trying to ideally get done before the end of the year, are getting our Starship into orbit ... and then having Tesla cars to be able to do self-driving. ... Have self-driving in wide release at least in the U.S., and ... potentially in Europe, depending on regulatory approval." FSD beta wide release Nov 2022[citation needed] [27]
May 2023 Dec 2023 "I mean, it does look like [full autonomy is] gonna happen this year. ... Well, we're now at the point where the car can drive on highways and in cities with and where a human dimension is extremely rare. So I mean, just – I was able to drive for several days, just dropping a navigation pin in random locations in the Greater Austin area with no interventions. And the same in San Francisco, which is a very difficult place to drive." No[citation needed] [28]
Jul 2023 Dec 2023 "People have sort of made fun of me and perhaps quite fairly have made fun of me, my predictions about achieving full self-driving have been optimistic in the past ... I'm the boy who cried FSD, but I think we'll be better than human by the end of this year. I've been wrong in the past, I may be wrong this time." No[citation needed] [29]
Jan 2024 Dec 2024 "You know, I really think lots of car companies should be asking for [full self-driving] licenses. [...] we've had some tentative conversations, but I think they don't believe it's real quite yet. I think that that will become obvious probably this year." TBD [30]
Oct 2024 Dec 2025 "We do expect actually to start fully autonomous, unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year. And obviously that's with the Model 3 and Model Y and then we expect to be in production with the CyberCab which is really highly optimized for autonomous transport in probably, well, I tend to be a little optimistic with time frames ... but in 2026. So yeah, before 2027, let me put it that way." TBD [31]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ a b Ramey, Jay (January 26, 2024). "Tesla Bets On AI In Latest FSD Update". Autoweek. Retrieved 4 December 2024.
  2. ^ a b Ackerman, Evan (18 September 2013). "Tesla Working Towards 90 Percent Autonomous Car Within Three Years". IEEE Spectrum. Retrieved 1 August 2023.
  3. ^ Baldwin, Roberto (March 9, 2021). "Tesla Tells California DMV that FSD Is Not Capable of Autonomous Driving". Car and Driver. Retrieved 4 December 2024.
  4. ^ Amadeo, Ron (October 14, 2015). "Driving (or kind of not driving) a Tesla Model S with Autopilot". Ars Technica. Retrieved 1 August 2023.
  5. ^ Ziegler, Chris (October 2, 2014). "Elon Musk says next year's Tesla cars will be able to self-drive 90 percent of the time". The Verge. Retrieved 1 August 2023.
  6. ^ Ackerman, Evan (7 October 2014). "Musk Promises 90% Autopilot for Teslas in 2015, Doesn't Say How". IEEE Spectrum. Retrieved 1 August 2023.
  7. ^ Voelcker, John (October 16, 2015). "Tesla Autopilot: The 10 Most Important Things You Need To Know". Green Car Reports. Retrieved 1 August 2023.
  8. ^ Elon Musk (December 21, 2015). "Elon Musk Says Tesla Vehicles Will Drive Themselves in Two Years". Fortune (Interview). Interviewed by Kirsten Korosec. Retrieved 28 July 2023.
  9. ^ D'Orazio, Dante (January 10, 2016). "Elon Musk predicts a Tesla will be able to drive itself across the country in 2018". The Verge. Retrieved 1 August 2023.
  10. ^ Eadicicco, Lisa (June 2, 2016). "Elon Musk Just Made These 5 Bold Claims About the Future". Time. Retrieved 3 August 2023.
  11. ^ Brandom, Russell (October 19, 2016). "Tesla wants new self-driving tech to autonomously road trip from LA to New York". The Verge. Retrieved 28 July 2023.
  12. ^ Etherington, Darrell (October 19, 2016). "Musk targeting coast-to-coast test drive of fully self-driving Tesla by late 2017". TechCrunch. Retrieved 1 August 2023.
  13. ^ Eisenstein, Paul A. (October 20, 2016). "A Driverless Tesla Will Travel From L.A. to NYC by 2017, Says Musk". NBC News. Retrieved 1 August 2023.
  14. ^ Greene, Brian (April 28, 2017). "What will the future look like? Elon Musk speaks at TED2017". TED Blog. Retrieved 3 August 2023.
  15. ^ "Watch and Read the Transcript of Elon Musk's 'Boring' TED Talk". Entrepreneur. May 3, 2017. Retrieved 1 August 2023.
  16. ^ Mitrache, Vlad (1 May 2017). "You'll Be Able to Sleep in Your Tesla on the Move Two Years from Now, Musk Says". Auto Evolution. Retrieved 1 August 2023.
  17. ^ "Tesla (TSLA) Q4 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript". Seeking Alpha. February 7, 2018. Retrieved 3 August 2023.
  18. ^ Elon Musk (November 5, 2018). "Full Q&A: Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk on Recode Decode". Recode Decode (Interview). Interviewed by Kara Swisher. Vox. Retrieved 3 August 2023.
  19. ^ Ferris, Robert (February 19, 2019). "Elon Musk: Tesla will have all its self-driving car features by the end of the year". CNBC. Retrieved 28 July 2023.
  20. ^ Korosec, Kirsten (April 22, 2019). "Tesla plans to launch a robotaxi network in 2020". TechCrunch. Retrieved 28 July 2023.
  21. ^ Baldwin, Roberto (April 16, 2020). "Elon Musk Says Tesla Robotaxis Will Still Be Ready in 2020". Car and Driver. Retrieved 13 February 2024.
  22. ^ Hyatt, Kyle (April 27, 2020). "Tesla's robotaxi fleet will be 'functionally ready' in 2020, Musk says". CNet. Retrieved 13 February 2024.
  23. ^ Goh, Brenda; Sun, Yilei (July 8, 2020). "Tesla 'very close' to level 5 autonomous driving technology, Musk says". Reuters. Retrieved 1 August 2023.
  24. ^ "Elon Musk says full self-driving Tesla tech 'very close'". BBC News. 9 July 2020. Retrieved 1 August 2023.
  25. ^ "Tesla (TSLA) Q4 2020 Earnings Call Transcript". The Motley Fool. January 27, 2021. Retrieved 3 August 2023.
  26. ^ Bellan, Rebecca; Korosec, Kirsten (April 20, 2022). "Musk says Tesla aspires to mass produce robotaxis by 2024". Tech Crunch. Retrieved 1 August 2023.
  27. ^ Adomaitis, Nerijus; Buli, Nora (August 29, 2022). "Elon Musk: focused on getting self-driving Teslas in wide release by year-end". Reuters. Retrieved 1 August 2023.
  28. ^ Elon Musk (May 16, 2023). "CNBC Exclusive: CNBC Transcript: Elon Musk Sits Down with CNBC's David Faber Live on CNBC Tonight". CNBC Tonight (Interview). Interviewed by David Faber. Retrieved 1 August 2023.
  29. ^ Roy, Abhirup (July 20, 2023). "Tesla's Elon Musk optimistic on progress for self-driving, robots". Reuters. Retrieved 3 August 2023.
  30. ^ "Tesla (TSLA) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript". The Motley Fool. January 24, 2024. Retrieved 29 January 2024.
  31. ^ "Everything Announced at Tesla's 'We, Robot' Event". CNET. October 10, 2024. Retrieved 11 October 2024.
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