List of marginal seats before the 2015 United Kingdom general election

This article describes the likely or potential target seats at the United Kingdom general election of 2015 that was held on 7 May 2015.

In January 2013, Labour published its list of 106 target seats for the next election.^[1] UKIP's list of 12 target seats was reported in August 2014,^[2] and others external to UKIP have highlighted seats where UKIP may be strongest.^[3] A list of Conservative non-target seats was deduced in February 2015.^[4] The Green Party of England & Wales describe having 12 target constituencies, including their one current seat.^[5]^[6]

Below are the most marginal seats listed by the party in second for those parties which won seats at the 2005 or 2010 general elections, ranked by the percentage swing required. These may not be the seats where parties choose to target their resources. Opinion polling in individual constituencies is also another indicator for possible target seats.

List by party

Conservative

Conservative target seats^[7]
Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2010		Swing required	Winning party 2015
1	Hampstead and Kilburn		Labour	0.04%		Labour
2	Bolton West		Labour	0.10%		Conservative
3	Solihull		Liberal Democrats	0.16%		Conservative
4	Southampton Itchen		Labour	0.22%		Conservative
5	Mid Dorset and North Poole		Liberal Democrats	0.29%		Conservative
6	Wirral South		Labour	0.66%		Labour
7	Derby North		Labour	0.68%		Conservative
8	Wells		Liberal Democrats	0.72%		Conservative
9	Dudley North		Labour	0.84%		Labour
10	Great Grimsby		Labour	1.08%		Labour
11	Morley and Outwood		Labour	1.13%		Conservative
12	Telford		Labour	1.19%		Conservative
13	Walsall North		Labour	1.37%		Labour
14	St Austell and Newquay		Liberal Democrats	1.39%		Conservative
15	Somerton and Frome		Liberal Democrats	1.50%		Conservative
16	Birmingham Edgbaston		Labour	1.54%		Labour
17	Sutton and Cheam		Liberal Democrats	1.66%		Conservative
18	Halifax		Labour	1.69%		Labour
19	Newcastle-under-Lyme		Labour	1.80%		Labour
20	Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland		Labour	1.82%		Labour
21	Wakefield		Labour	1.82%		Labour
22	St. Ives		Liberal Democrats	1.87%		Conservative
23	Plymouth Moor View		Labour	1.91%		Conservative
24	Gedling		Labour	1.93%		Labour
25	Eltham		Labour	1.98%		Labour
26	Walsall South		Labour	2.15%		Labour
27	Nottingham South		Labour	2.17%		Labour

Labour

Labour target seats^[8]
Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2010		Swing required	Winning party 2015
1	North Warwickshire		Conservative	0.05%		Conservative
2	Thurrock		Conservative	0.10%		Conservative
3	Hendon		Conservative	0.12%		Conservative
4	Cardiff North		Conservative	0.20%		Conservative
5	Sherwood		Conservative	0.22%		Conservative
6	Norwich South		Liberal Democrats	0.32%		Labour
7	Stockton South		Conservative	0.33%		Conservative
8	Broxtowe		Conservative	0.37%		Conservative
9	Lancaster and Fleetwood		Conservative	0.39%		Labour
10	Bradford East		Liberal Democrats	0.45%		Labour
11	Amber Valley		Conservative	0.58%		Conservative
12	Waveney		Conservative	0.75%		Conservative
13	Wolverhampton South West		Conservative	0.85%		Labour
14	Morecambe and Lunesdale		Conservative	1.00%		Conservative
15	Carlisle		Conservative	1.01%		Conservative
16	Stroud		Conservative	1.12%		Conservative
17	Weaver Vale		Conservative	1.13%		Conservative
18	Lincoln		Conservative	1.16%		Conservative
19	Brighton Pavilion		Green	1.21%		Green
20	Plymouth Sutton and Devonport		Conservative	1.31%		Conservative
21	Dewsbury		Conservative	1.41%		Labour
22	Warrington South		Conservative	1.42%		Conservative
23	Brent Central		Liberal Democrats	1.48%		Labour
24	Bedford		Conservative	1.50%		Conservative
25	Brighton Kemptown		Conservative	1.56%		Conservative
26	Pudsey		Conservative	1.69%		Conservative
27	Brentford and Isleworth		Conservative	1.82%		Labour

Liberal Democrats

Liberal Democrats target seats^[9]
Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2010		Swing required	Winning party 2015
1	Camborne and Redruth		Conservative	0.08%		Conservative
2	Oldham East and Saddleworth^{[note 1]}		Labour	0.12%		Labour
3	Oxford West and Abingdon		Conservative	0.16%		Conservative
4	Ashfield		Labour	0.20%		Labour
5	Sheffield Central		Labour	0.20%		Labour
6	Edinburgh South		Labour	0.36%		Labour
7	Truro and Falmouth		Conservative	0.45%		Conservative
8	Newton Abbot		Conservative	0.55%		Conservative
9	Chesterfield		Labour	0.60%		Labour
10	Swansea West		Labour	0.71%		Labour
11	Kingston upon Hull North		Labour	0.96%		Labour
12	Rochdale		Labour	0.97%		Labour
13	Harrogate and Knaresborough		Conservative	0.98%		Conservative
14	Watford		Conservative	1.29%		Conservative
15	Hampstead and Kilburn		Labour	1.51%		Labour
16	Montgomeryshire		Conservative	1.75%		Conservative
17	Edinburgh North and Leith		Labour	1.82%		SNP
18	St. Albans		Conservative	2.19%		Conservative
19	Newport East		Labour	2.39%		Labour
20	Weston-super-Mare		Conservative	2.56%		Conservative
21	Hereford and Herefordshire South		Conservative	2.57%		Conservative
22	Torridge and West Devon		Conservative	2.68%		Conservative
23	Winchester		Conservative	2.73%		Conservative
24	Northampton North		Conservative	3.09%		Conservative
25	South East Cornwall		Conservative	3.25%		Conservative
26	Bristol North West		Conservative	3.25%		Conservative
27	City of Durham		Labour	3.32%		Labour

SNP

SNP target seats
Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2010		Swing required	Winning party 2015
1	Ochil and South Perthshire		Labour	5.14%		SNP

Plaid Cymru

Plaid Cymru target seats
Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2010		Swing required	Winning party 2015
1	Ynys Môn		Labour	3.55%	Labour		Labour	Labour

Green Party

Green Party target seats
Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2010		Swing required	Winning party 2015
1	Norwich South		Liberal Democrats	7.20%	Labour		Labour	Labour

Respect Party

Respect Party target seats
Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2010		Swing required	Winning party 2015
1	Birmingham Hall Green		Labour	3.9%	Labour		Labour	Labour

Northern Ireland

	Sinn Féin targets	Swing required	SDLP targets	Swing required	DUP targets	Swing required	Alliance targets	Swing required
1	Belfast North (DUP)	3.01%	Newry and Armagh (SF)	9.3%	Belfast East (Alliance)	2.22%	Belfast South (SDLP)	15.00%

Notes

^ As compared to the 2010 general election result, not the 2011 by-election result.

References

^ "List of Labour's 106 target seats for 2015". Politicshome.com. Archived from the original on 19 January 2013. Retrieved 3 May 2013.
^ Holehouse, Matthew (26 August 2014). "Ukip to target Tory ministers' seats". Telegraph.co.uk.
^ Roberts, Marcus. "REVOLT ON THE LEFT Labour's UKIP problem and how it can be overcome" (PDF). Fabian Society.
^ "Leaked list shows Tories are not competing in five likely marginals". May2015: 2015 General Election Guide. Retrieved 7 March 2015.
^ "Will you pledge to vote Green?". Archived from the original on 9 March 2015. Retrieved 7 March 2015.
^ "The Granola Pact: is there a rift between Natalie Bennett and Caroline Lucas?". Retrieved 7 March 2015.
^ "CONSERVATIVE TARGET SEATS". ukpollingreport.co.uk. Retrieved 22 September 2013.
^ "Labour Targets". ukpollingreport.co.uk.
^ "LIBERAL DEMOCRAT TARGET SEATS". ukpollingreport.co.uk. Retrieved 22 September 2013.