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October 2024 Bulgarian parliamentary election

(Redirected from Next Bulgarian parliamentary election)

Snap parliamentary elections were held in Bulgaria on 27 October 2024,[1][2] after all three attempts to form a government following the latest June 2024 elections failed. This was the country's sixth snap election since 2021. This series of snap elections is the result of a political crisis affecting the country.

October 2024 Bulgarian parliamentary election
Bulgaria
← June 2024 27 October 2024 Next →
All 240 seats in the National Assembly
121 seats needed for a majority
Turnout37.62% (Increase 4.22pp)
Party Leader Vote % Seats +/–
GERB–SDS Boyko Borisov 25.52 69 +1
PP–DB Kiril Petkov 13.74 37 −2
Revival Kostadin Kostadinov 12.92 35 −3
DPS–NN Delyan Peevski 11.17 30 New
BSP–OL Atanas Zafirov 7.32 20 +1
APS Dzhevdet Chakarov 7.23 19 New
ITN Slavi Trifonov 6.56 18 +2
MECh Radostin Vasilev 4.44 12 +12
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
Result by constituency
Prime Minister before
Dimitar Glavchev
(caretaker)
Independent

Background

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See also: 2021–present Bulgarian political crisis, 2023 Bulgarian parliamentary election, and June 2024 Bulgarian parliamentary election

Elections and government breakdown

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Following several snap elections, the National Assembly had failed to put together a long-lasting government since 'anti-corruption' parties made a breakthrough in the April 2021 election.[3][4] The 2023 election saw little change from 2022, with Boyko Borisov's centre-right GERB–SDS narrowly coming in first place, above the centrist PP–DB alliance. The far-right Revival (VAZ) and the populist There is Such a People (ITN) made gains, with the latter re-entering the Assembly after it failed to reach the electoral threshold in 2022.[5][6]

On 22 May 2023 the PP- and GERB-led alliances agreed to form a government with a rotational premiership. Nikolai Denkov, PP's candidate, would be the Prime Minister for the first nine months of the government and Mariya Gabriel, the GERB candidate, would serve as deputy prime minister and foreign affairs minister. After nine months, the two would switch positions.[7] After nine months, the switch failed to materialise with negotiations breaking down,[8][9][10][11] and no government could be formed. Dimitar Glachev was appointed as caretaker prime minister,[12] and elections were scheduled for 9 June 2024.[13][14]

June elections

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The June 2024 elections, held at the same time as the European Parliament elections, had the lowest turnout (33%) since the end of communist rule in 1989.[3] It resulted in GERB–SDS winning most of the votes and 68 seats, with no party or alliance obtaining enough seats to form a majority in the National Assembly.[15] The new elected 50th Parliament replaced the 49th Parliament,[16] when all elected members were sworn in on 19 June.[17] Government formation attempts were given to GERB, PP–DB and There is Such a People (ITN), with the final attempt failing on 5 August.[18][19][20]

As a consequence, President Rumen Radev instead appointed the Vice President of the Bulgarian National Audit Office, Goritsa Grancharova-Kozhareva, as the next caretaker prime minister on 9 August.[21] Grancharova-Kozhareva was granted ten days to form a proposal for the next caretaker government to be appointed on 20 August, and the upcoming next parliamentary elections were scheduled for 20 October 2024.[22] Grancharova-Kozhareva made the controversial decision to propose that the incumbent minister of the interior, Kalin Stoyanov, should remain in his role, but this was opposed by President Radev. Radev rejected the government proposal, delaying the upcoming election.[23]

Following the rejection of Grancharova-Kozhareva, Radev re-appointed Dimitar Glavchev as the caretaker prime minister,[24] and his government proposal was sworn in on 27 August, and the elections were set for the 27 October.[25][26]

Changes in the Assembly's composition prior to the election

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One MP was expelled from the BSP by its national council on 18 June, before being sworn in.[27]

The Velichie parliamentary group comprised 13 MPs after the election. On 5 July, six MPs broke away from the group, dissolving it.[28]

A rift in Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) surrounding Delyan Peevski saw 17 MPs expelled and a further eight leave.[29]

As of the end of July 2024, the composition of the Assembly was as follows:

Composition of the 50th Parliament
(by the end of July 2024)[30]
 
  GERB-SDS (68 MPs)
  PP–DB (39 MPs)
  VAZ (38 MPs)
  DPS (22 MPs)
  BSPzB (17 MPs)
  ITN (16 MPs)
  Independents expelled from DPS
(25 MPs, led by Ahmed Dogan)[29]
  Independents expelled from the former Velichie
(7 MPs, led by Nikolay Markov (politician) [bg])[28]
  Independents from the dissolved Velichie
(6 MPs, led by Ivelin Mikhailov [bg])[28]
  Independent expelled from BSPzB
(2 MPs, Kaloyan Metodiev [bg] and Mikhail Stavrev)[27]

Electoral system

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The 240 members of the National Assembly were elected by open list, proportional representation from 31 multi-member constituencies ranging in size from four to nineteen seats. The electoral threshold was 4% for all parties or electoral coalitions, with seats allocated according to the largest remainder method using a Hare quota.[31][32]

Parties

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Contesting parties and coalitions

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Below is the official list of parties and coalitions that registered lists for the Bulgarian Parliamentary elections.[33][34] Boxes shaded in grey are not officially parties in the coalitions according to the electoral commission, but they are key groups in each alliance.

It was reported that despite suggesting they could run, Volt, Bulgarian National Union and VMRO did not submit their lists in time to partake in the elections.[35] NDPS also wished to partake, but its registration was deleted.[36]

# Party or coalition Ideology Leader 2024 result
Votes (%) Seats
1 Democrats for Responsibility, Solidarity and Tolerance Turkish minority interests
Erdoğanism 		Taner Alimolla [bg] DNP
2 People's Voice Right-wing populism Svetoslav Vitkov 0.30%
0 / 240
3 Socialist Party "Bulgarian Way" [bg] Left-wing nationalism
Euroscepticism 		Angel Dimov [bg] DNP
4 Greatness Bulgarian nationalism
Anti-corruption 		Albena Pekova 4.52%
13 / 240
5 Bulgars Bulgarian nationalism
National conservatism 		Georgi Georgiev-Goti 0.04%
0 / 240
6 My Country Bulgaria Bulgarian Left Democratic socialism Boyan Kirov Solidary Bulgaria
United Social-Democracy [bg] Social democracy Yordan Gergov
My Country Bulgaria Anti-Western sentiment
Left-wing nationalism 		Ivaylo Drazhev DNE
7 There is Such a People Populism
Social conservatism 		Slavi Trifonov 5.79%
16 / 240
8 DPS – A New Beginning Movement for Rights and Freedoms Turkish minority interests
Liberalism 		Delyan Peevski 16.56%
47 / 240
New Leaders Direct democracy Georgi Tityukov DNE
Bulgarian Voice National conservatism
Euro-atlanticism 		Georgi Popov 0.15%
0 / 240
9 Brigade [bg] Anti-establishment Arben Khavalyov [bg] DNP
10 Party of the Greens [bg] Green politics
Left-wing nationalism 		Vladimir Nikolov 0.25%
0 / 240
11 Pravoto [bg] Populism Maria Koleva DNP
12 Revival Ultranationalism
Right-wing populism 		Kostadin Kostadinov 13.38%
38 / 240
13 Alliance for Rights and Freedoms Just Bulgaria United Patriots [bg] (SBOR) Dimitar Iliev DNP
Agrarian People's Union Agrarianism Rumen Yonchev Blue Bulgaria
DPS dissidents Liberalism
Turkish minority interests 		Dzhevdet Chakarov DNE
14 Bulgarian National Union – New Democracy Ultranationalism Boyan Rasate [bg] 0.10%
0 / 240
15 Bulgarian Union for Direct Democracy [bg] Direct democracy
Bulgarian nationalism 		Georgi Nedelchev [bg] 0.04%
0 / 240
16 Blue Bulgaria Conservative Union of the Right National conservatism
Anti-communism 		Petar Moskov 1.52%
0 / 240
Bulgarian Democratic Forum [bg] National conservatism
Anti-communism 		Zhaklin Toleva [bg]
Democratic Action Movement Liberal conservatism Stefan Ivanov
Bulgarian New Democracy Liberal conservatism Valeri Georgiev
Conservative Bulgaria National conservatism Boris Yachev
Radical-Democratic Party Social conservatism
Anti-communism 		Zahari Petrov
United Agrarians Agrarianism
Liberal conservatism 		Vacant DNP
17 Morality, Unity, Honour Anti-corruption
Social conservatism 		Radostin Vasilev 2.98%
0 / 240
18 GERB–SDS GERB Social conservatism
Pro-Europeanism 		Boyko Borisov 23.99%
68 / 240
SDS Christian democracy
Anti-communism 		Rumen Hristov
George's Day Movement National conservatism
Bulgarian nationalism 		Lyuben Dilov Jr.
19 Attack Bulgarian nationalism
Ultranationalism 		Volen Siderov DNP
20 People's Party "Truth and Only the Truth" [bg] Anti-vaccination
Anti-establishment 		Ventsislav Angelov [bg] 0.11%
0 / 240
21 Direct Democracy [bg] Bulgarian nationalism
Direct democracy 		Petar Klisarov [bg] 0.24%
0 / 240
22 Free Voters Green Union Green politics Danail Dimov DNP
Republicans for Bulgaria Conservatism
Economic liberalism 		Tsvetan Tsvetanov
Union of Free Democrats Liberal conservatism Radoslav Katsarov
23 Bulgaria of Labor and Reason [bg] Anti-Western sentiment
Hard Euroscepticism 		Georgi Manolov [bg] DNP
24 Competence, Responsibility and Truth [bg] Right-wing populism Svetozar Saev [bg] We the Citizens
25 Russophiles for Bulgaria Bulgarian Communist Party Communism Vladimir Hristov 0.11%
(NB)
0 / 240
Party of the Bulgarian Communists Communism
Marxism–Leninism 		Ivan Penchev
Russophiles for the
Revival of the Fatherland 		Russophilia
National conservatism 		Valentin Grigorov
26 PP–DB We Continue the Change Liberalism
Anti-corruption 		Kiril Petkov
Asen Vasilev 		13.92%
39 / 240
Democrats for a Strong Bulgaria Conservatism
Anti-communism 		Atanas Atanasov
Yes, Bulgaria! Liberalism
Anti-corruption 		Hristo Ivanov
27 Bulgarian Rise National conservatism Stefan Yanev 0.56%
0 / 240
28 BSP – United Left Bulgarian Socialist Party Social conservatism
Social democracy 		Atanas Zafirov 6.85%
(BSPzB)
19 / 240
Ecoglasnost Green politics
Environmentalism 		Emil Georgiev [bg]
Political Club "Trakiya" [bg] Left wing nationalism Stefan Nachev
Stand Up.BG Social democracy
Left-wing populism 		Maya Manolova 1.42%
(SB)
0 / 240
Alternative for Bulgarian Revival Social democracy
Social conservatism 		Rumen Petkov 0.69%
(The Left)
0 / 240
Movement 21 Social democracy Tatyana Doncheva
Political Movement "Social Democrats" Social democracy Elena Noneva
Bulgarian Social Democracy – EuroLeft Social democracy Aleksandr Tomov 0.10%
(Rose Coalition)
0 / 240
Communist Party of Bulgaria Marxism–Leninism Alexander Paunov Neutral Bulgaria
Bulgarian Spring [bg] Left-wing nationalism Svetoslav Mandikov We the Citizens
Movement for Social Humanism Progressivism Alexander Radoslavov DNP
European Security and Integration Roma Minority politics Toma Tomov
Union for the Fatherland Left-wing nationalism Vasil Tochkov
Arise Left-wing nationalism Aleksandr Bogdanov
29 Independent Anti-corruption
Pleven localism 		Chavdar Popov DNP

DPS leadership dispute

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On 27 August, the central leadership organisation of the DPS removed Delyan Peevski as chairman of the party, and seven MPs close to Peevski were expelled from the party. This move has been linked to Ahmed Dogan, MP and honorary chairman of the party.[37][38][39] Peevski called the move unconstitutional,[8] and gained control of the official party website.[40] This follows the rift in the party following the election, where the parliamentary group split.[29] The controversy surrounding Peevski has led to two groups emerging,[41] DPS – A New Beginning[42] and Democracy, Rights and Freedoms,[43] with both groups registering as electoral coalitions with the acronym DPS in order to get around the rules of the electoral commission.[6][44] After DPS–Peevski was recognized to be the legitimate DPS by the Supreme Administrative Court of Bulgaria, DPS–Dogan changed their name to "Alliance for Rights and Freedoms" (АПС instead of ДПС) and registered without listing DPS as a member of the alliance.[45] The DPS mayors split 50:50 between both groups.[46]

Campaign

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Ten days prior to the election, it was reported that 1.2 million BGN (US $680k) was spent on advertising in the media, with ITN spending the most, DPS–Peevski second most, and BPS–OL third.[47]

Campaign slogans and websites

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The following list present the official campaign slogans and websites of parties that contested the election:

Party or coalition Slogan Website
DOST For a better future N/A
People's Voice For a future without political garbage! For a more clean and sacred (republic)! N/A
SP "Bulgarian Way" [bg] N/A Website
Greatness From the ashes - to the sun Website
Bulgars Bulgaria above all! Website
My Country Bulgaria Unity creates strength! N/A
There is Such a People The logical choice Website
DPS – A New Beginning It's time for a new beginning Website
Brigade [bg] To Save Bulgaria N/A
Party of the Greens [bg] Vote for the Greens with No. 10 Website
Pravoto [bg] Give a chance for yourself... Vote for Legality! Website
Revival Enough experiments! Its time for Revival! Website
Alliance for Rights and Freedoms To defend democracy and statehood! Website
BNS–ND N/A Website
Bulgarian Union for Direct Democracy [bg] The system has completely failed! It is time for change to come! Website
Blue Bulgaria Believe strongly, act decisively. Website
Morality, Unity, Honour MECH or the mafia! Website
GERB–SDS Security and stability. Website
Attack The attack continues[48] N/A
Truth and Only Truth [bg] Immediate change N/A
Direct Democracy [bg] New system Website
Free Voters Responsible choice N/A
Bulgaria of Labor and Reason [bg] For an independent Bulgaria of labour and reason outside the EU and NATO Website
Competence, Responsibility and Truth [bg] Who will return our fatherland? N/A
Russophiles for Bulgaria Bulgaria is stronger together with Russia! Wesbite
PP–DB Lets care for Bulgaria. Website
BSP – United Left Time for decisions Website

Opinion polls

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Local regression of polls conducted, excluding "none of the above"

The opinion poll results below were recalculated from the original data by excluding undecided and non-voters.

121 seats are needed for a parliamentary majority and all parties need to pass the 4% threshold to be elected to the National Assembly.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample GERB–SDS DPS PP–DB Vaz BSP–OL ITN Vel MECh SB Others NOTA Lead
APS DPS–NN BSP L! IsBg
Alpha Research 20–23 Oct 1,000 26.5
76 		7.9
23 		7.4
21 		14.9
42 		14.2
40 		7.2
21 		6.1
17 		2.6
0 		3.8
0 		2.7
0 		6.7 3.0[a] 11.6
Exacta 19–22 Oct 1,070 26.7
76 		8.1
23 		7.3
21 		14.6
41 		14.3
41 		7.5
21 		6
17 		2.6
0 		3.7
0 		2.8
0 		6.3 2.0[a] 12.1
Trend 16–22 Oct 1,002 24.9
70 		7.8
21 		7
19 		14.8
41 		15.2
42 		6.5
18 		6.6
18 		3.6
0 		4
11 		1.7
0 		7.9 4.3[a] 9.7
Gallup International 10–21 Oct 1,007 26.1
70 		7.8
21 		7.6
20 		16.2
43 		14.9
40 		7.1
19 		6.2
16 		3.8
0 		4.1
11 		1.2
0 		4.9 3.4[a] 9.9
MarketLinks 15–20 Oct 1,014 27.2
71 		9.3
23 		8.1
21 		16.0
42 		14.9
39 		7.9
20 		5.2
14 		4.1
10 		1.8
0 		3.1
0 		2.0 2.7[a] 11.2
Sova Haris 11–17 Oct 800 25.6
68 		8.7
23 		6.5
17 		14.7
39 		14.5
38 		9.8
26 		6.8
18 		4.2
11 		3.1
0 		1.6
0 		4.1 2.6[a] 11.2
Mediana 8–13 Oct 978 27.7
74 		9.8
25 		5.6
15 		13.9
37 		15.5
41 		10.0
26 		7.9
21 		– 2.7
0 		3.4
0 		3.7 11.4[a] 12.2
Gallup International 28 Sep – 6 Oct 806 25.7
72 		8.3
23 		6.9
19 		16.6
46 		15.4
43 		7.1
20 		6.3
17 		3.2
0 		3.8
0 		1.1
0 		5.7 3.1[a] 9.1
Market Links 25 Sep – 1 Oct 1,011 27.1
78 		9.9
29 		7.5
22 		16.5
48 		15.6
45 		6.2
18 		3.99
0 		3.8
0 		– – 9.8 2.4[a] 10.6
Trend 17–24 Sep 2024 1,003 24.8
72 		8.5
24 		5.8
16 		15.1
43 		15.6
45 		6.9
20 		6.9
20 		3.4
0 		3.5
0 		1.6
0 		7.9 3.9[a] 9.2
Alpha Research 18–24 Sep 2024 1,000 26.0
75 		8.6
24 		6.6
19 		15.7
44 		15.4
43 		6.8
19 		5.9
16 		3.5
0 		3.0
0 		2.8
0 		5.5 2.6[a] 10.3
11 Sep 2024 DPS splits into APS and DPS–NN
5 Sep 2024 BSP and other leftist parties join to form BSP – OL
Market Links 14–23 Aug 2024 1,038 26.2
76 		18.4
53 		17.1
50 		13.7
40 		7.4
21 		– – 3.8
0 		2.4
0 		– – 8.0 3.0 7.8
Gallup International 1–9 Aug 2024 802 25.2
74 		14.5
42 		15.2
44 		14.2
41 		7.3
21 		– – 6.2
18 		3.6
0 		3.4
0 		– 10.4 2.5[a] 10.0
Market Links 20–28 Jul 2024 1,008 25.8
71 		14.4
40 		17.2
47 		12.3
34 		7.7
21 		– – 5.8
16 		4.2
11 		– – 8.6 2.8 8.6
Market Links 18–25 Jun 2024 1,014 24.4
66 		18.3
50 		16.2
44 		13.8
38 		5.3
14 		– – 5.4
15 		5.0
13 		– – 6.7 5.8 6.1
June 2024 election results 9 Jun 2024 — 24.7
68 		17.1
47 		14.3
39 		13.8
38 		7.1[b]
19 		0.7
0 		1.5[c]
0 		6.0
16 		4.7
13 		3.0
0 		1.6
0 		7.7 –[d] 7.4
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l This poll reported the percentage respondents do not support any party, however the rest of the data was recalculated to exclude these percentages.
  2. ^ As BSP for Bulgaria
  3. ^ As Solidary Bulgaria.
  4. ^ In official election results, None of the above votes don’t count as a proportion of the total vote. In the June 2024 election, they reached a total number of 63,913 or approximately 2.9%, if measured proportionally.

Conduct

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Allegations of vote buying are common occurrences in the Bulgarian electoral cycle,[49] with allegations of vote buying happening more often in rural areas, which have more poverty and people who are less educated.[50] During the election campaign, a deputy, Ivaylo Mirchev, from PP–DB, claimed that there was widespread vote buying being conducted by DPS–Peevski, claiming people were being paid up to 500 BGN (US $286) per vote.[51] One of the leaders of the list for DPS–Peevski appeared to admit to vote buying in a social media poll.[52]

The interior minister, Atanas Ilkov, told a parliamentary hearing that he had received two alerts of vote buying by 25 September.[53] A national police operation that was set up to target the practice began operating two days later.[54] On 18 October, Ilkov said his ministry had received 259 allegations of vote buying.[55]

Deutsche Welle received reports, especially in Kardzhali Province, that DPS–Peevski was pressuring people to vote for the party in fear of losing their jobs, with already 60 jobs lost in the municipal administration. They also reported that Peevski personally was paying for various small-scale public repairs.[56]

Dzheyhan Ibryamov case

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On 2 October, the lead candidate of DPS–Dogan in Shumen, Dzheyhan Ibryamov, was arrested by the Prosecutors Office on the charge of attempting to buy vote and influence peddling.[57] Following a request by the Prosecutors Office, the CEC and Chairwoman of the National Assembly, Raya Nazaryan, agreed to lift Ibryamov's immunity as a candidate in the elections.[58] Despite the criminal case against him and his arrest, Ibryamov was still authorised to participate in the elections.[59]

The arrest and criminal prosecution of Ibryamov provoked negative reactions from key DPS–Dogan figures, with the coalition de facto leader, Dzhevdet Chakarov, calling for the cancellation of the upcoming elections.[60]

Post-result reports

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In identified polling stations with a risk of high levels of controlled or bought votes, GERB and DPS–Peevski were the leading parties.[61]

According to the Institute for the Development of the Public Environment, there were 827 polling stations with this risk, and bTV reported some voters in Blagoevgrad did not deny that there was vote buying occurring.[62] The coordinator of the 'You Count' organisation, which asks voters to report election misconduct, claimed that there were entire municipalities at risk of high levels of bought and controlled votes. He claimed the results did not reflect the will of the Bulgarian citizens because the results were so skewed.[63]

An investigation was released on the state broadcaster, BNT, claimed to show that discrepancies of up to 100 votes in one electoral district, as well as other malpractices elsewhere.[64]

The Caretaker Government, in its official report, stated that they believe that the elections had taken place in a free and fair environment, and cited positive comments made by international electoral observers.[65] In a briefing shortly after the elections, Caretaker Minister of the Interior Atanas Ilkov claimed that no serious differences in the level of vote-buying had been noted by the Ministry and that there was no evidence of the use of state institutions in order to influence the elections outcome.[66]

Results

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Exit polls showed a GERB victory with 26.4% of the vote, with the PP getting 14.9%, and Revival 12.9%.[67]

The following table outlines the partial results by party. The national threshold at 4% is calculated using total votes for parties and independent candidates only, and not the total of valid votes, which include "None of the above" votes. Velichie missed out on reaching the electoral threshold by less than 30 votes, and therefore lost its parliamentary representation.

As of 22:03 Eastern European Time (UTC+02:00) on 27 October 2024, exit polls showed GERB–SDS was projected to win 65 to 76 seats, with PP–DB securing 37 to 42 seats and Revival claiming 35 to 36 seats. Parallel vote tabulation showed slightly different projections: 63 to 69 for GERB–SDS, 35 to 38 for PP–DB and 35 to 36 for Revival.[68]

 
PartyVotes%Seats+/–
GERB–SDS642,97325.5269+1
We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria346,06313.7437–2
Revival325,46612.9235–3
DPS – A New Beginning281,35611.1730New
BSP – United Left184,4037.3220+1
Alliance for Rights and Freedoms182,2537.2319New
There is Such a People165,1606.5618+2
Morality, Unity, Honour111,9654.4412+12
Velichie97,4383.870–13
Blue Bulgaria26,0541.0300
Bulgarian Rise10,3180.4100
Russophiles for Bulgaria8,8600.350New
Direct Democracy [bg]7,9520.3200
People's Voice7,2980.2900
Free Voters6,2930.250New
Party of the Greens [bg]4,8970.1900
Attack3,9650.160New
My Country Bulgaria2,7810.110New
People's Party "Truth and Only the Truth" [bg]2,4630.1000
Pravoto [bg]2,3600.090New
Democrats for Responsibility, Solidarity and Tolerance2,2600.0900
Bulgarian National Union – New Democracy2,2300.0900
Competence, Responsibility and Truth [bg]2,0220.080New
Bulgars1,7370.070New
Bulgarian Union for Direct Democracy [bg]1,6940.0700
Socialist Party "Bulgarian Way" [bg]1,5700.060New
Bulgaria of Labor and Reason [bg]1,4440.060New
Brigade [bg]1,1810.050New
Independent2,0000.080New
None of the above82,6193.28––
Total2,519,075100.002400
Valid votes2,519,07598.00
Invalid/blank votes51,5232.00
Total votes2,570,598100.00
Registered voters/turnout6,833,88537.62
Source: Central Electoral Commission

Maps

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  •  
    Most voted-for party by province
  •  
    GERB-SDS's results by province
  •  
    PP-DB's results by province
  •  
    DPS-NN's results by province
  •  
    Winning party by abroad countries

Aftermath

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Election of the speaker

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Main article: 51st National Assembly of Bulgaria § National Assembly Speaker and Deputy-Speakers

The election of a speaker for the 51st National Assembly is required before it can begin its work, which include conducting upcoming votes on potential government formation proposals. The Bulgarian President will only start the process of handing out investigative cabinet forming mandates, once a speaker of the Parliament has been elected.[69]

The election of the speaker of the National Assembly was previously used as GERB as a key part of coalition negotiations. GERB again declared that as the largest party, they should elect the speaker and his party would not partake in coalition talks if this was not to be the case.[70] PP–DB had previously stated they would not vote to elect a GERB speaker.[71]

On 11 November, the 51st assembly met for the first time, accompanied by several protests.[72][73] The candidates were Raya Nazaryan (GERB, speaker of the 50th national assembly), Andrey Tsekov (PP–DB, former minister), Petar Petrov (Vaz), Natalia Kiselova (BSP–OL) and Nicoleta Kuzmanova (ITN).[74] In the first round of voting, Nazaryan and Tsekov received the most support, with all parties backing their own candidates, DPS–Peevski abstaining, and DPS–Dogan and MECh splitting between Kiselova and Kuzmanova.[75] In the run-off, no candidate received enough votes to be elected. The results of the run-off votes were as follows:[72]

Chairperson of the National Assembly run-off vote (1st round, 11 Nov)
Raya Nazaryan (GERB)
Yes
68 / 240
No
121 / 240
Abstentions/Absentees
51 / 240
Result No  N
Chairperson of the National Assembly run-off vote (1st round, 11 Nov)
Andrey Tsekov (PP–DB)
Yes
68 / 240
No
86 / 240
Abstentions/Absentees
86 / 240
Result No  N

A second round elections to elect the speaker was scheduled for 13 November.[76] The same candidates were up for election.[77] Nazaryan and Tsekov again went to a run-off, and they both failed to be elected with only a few MPs changing their votes.[78]

A third round was scheduled for 15 November,[79] with the same candidates again, except for ITN nominating Silvi Kirilov instead as a 'temporary' speaker (Kirilov had been opening the parliament as the oldest MP).[80] The vote failed[81] after Kirilov only managed to get the support of ITN and DPS–Dogan, so Nazaryan and Tsekov went on to the run-off. In the run-off, Nazaryan only received the support of GERB–SDS; Tsekov received 56 votes, as MECh did not support any candidate in this round.[82]

The fourth round on 20 November saw PP–DB withdraw their nomination of Tsekov in favour of supporting Kirilov. All other candidates were the same. Kirilov this time went to the runoff alongside Nazaryan, who was only supported by GERB MPs. Kirilov's run-off vote failed, but was as follows:[83]

Chairperson of the National Assembly run-off vote (4th round, 20 Nov)
Silvi Kirilov (ITN)
Yes
101 / 240
No
54 / 240
Abstentions/Absentees
85 / 240
Result No  N

The fifth round of voting was scheduled for 22 November,[84] with Nazaryan and Kirilov failing once more to be elected after entering the runoff, with Kirilov again getting 101 votes in favour.[85]

On 26 November, BSP – United Left invited all parliamentary groups (PP-DB, Revival, APS, ITN, and MECh) to a meeting without representation from GERB and DPS, in order to seek agreement on the main priorities for the future work of the National Assembly, and based on these priorities to determine the most suitable candidate for the speaker of the National Assembly - elected among the invited parties.[86] Ahead of the meeting, MECh welcomed the proposal by BSP, for the other parties to form an anti-corruption majority against GERB leader Boyko Borisov and DPS leader Delyan Peevski.[87]

The sixth round of voting is scheduled on 27 November.[69]

Government formation

edit

Following the results, the parliament remained fragmented, with no clear pre-existing majority being evident.[88] On 30 October, the Bulgarian news network Dnevnik suggested the following coalition options were the most likely possibilities to occur, based on the election results and considering the positions stated by the parties during the election campaign:[89]

Coalition Partners Seats Status in the National Assembly Notes
GERB, PP–DB, APS
69+37+19




 Majority (125/240)
GERB, PP–DB, BSP
69+37+20




 Majority (126/240)
GERB, PP–DB, ITN
69+37+18




 Majority (124/240)
GERB, PP–DB, BSP, APS, ITN
69+37+20+19+18



 Qualified majority (163/240) This coalition could exclude one of the latter three parties and still retain a majority.
GERB, BSP, APS, ITN
69+20+19+18



 Majority (126/240)
GERB
69





 Minority (69/240) A minority GERB cabinet, which would require 62 votes in favour and a majority including abstentions.

A new caretaker government shall be formed by the Bulgarian President, if all three government formation attempts mandated by the constitution fails. The procedure for appointing a caretaker government was recently changed by amendments to the Constitution adopted by the 49th National Assembly, but those changes were challenged for lack of constitutionality by President Radev for a second time on 20 November 2024.[90]

Party positions ahead of the first negotiation mandate

edit

Borisov, GERB's leader, claimed victory following the elections and declared that he would be willing to cooperate with all parties except for Revival, if they were willing to support GERB's program.[91] Speaking at GERB's National Forum meant to discuss the election results, Borisov predicted that new elections were the most likely outcome of the next National Assembly.[92]

PP–DB, which finished second, called for a cordon sanitaire around DPS–Peevski, and urged all parties to sign an agreement to this effect, which would also include a committment to support anti-corruption legislation and judicial reform. PP co-leader Kiril Petkov stated that signing this joint-declaration was a pre-condition for their negotiation with any of the other parties.[93] The call to exclude Peevski from future governing arrangements was supported by DPS–Dogan,[94] which pushed for a Euro-Atlanticist majority without DPS–Peevski.[95] Specifically, Dogan himself said his DPS wing could support a GERB–PP–DB government.[96] ITN also supported the statement on the condition that PP–DB would agree to fix the electoral rolls,[97] which they did.[98] MECh also supported the cordon sanitaire.[99] GERB rejected the concept of signing agreements prior to negotiations.[100] Peevski, for his part, argued that the attempts to exclude his party were undemocratic and implied that they were an attempt to sideline the interests of Bulgarian ethnic minority voters.[101]

The BSP, in a statement after the election, did not explicitly rule out participation in a government with any of the other parliamentary represented parties, however made clear that any decision about government participation would have to be taken by all parts of the party and broader coalition.[102]

The leader of the newest parliamentary party, MECh, Radostin Vasilev initially proposed a coalition excluding GERB and both wings of the DPS, where MECh would take the interior ministry.[103]

Prior to the first sitting of the 51st National Assembly, Borisov called for a formation of a government with the support of GERB, PP–DB, BSP, ITN, with himself as Prime Minister.[104] This idea was rejected by PP–DB, who refused to negotiate with GERB prior to the signing of the declaration against Delyan Peevski and corruption in Bulgaria.[105] BSP similarly implied that they would not vote for a GERB-led government or Boyko Borisov as Prime Minister.[106]

On 12 November, PP-DB initiated meetings with parties who had expressed a willingness to sign the declaration for the creation of a cordon sanitaire around Delyan Peevski.[107] During the meetings, ITN, MECh and APS affirmed their willingness to support the declarations and work with PP-DB on passing anti-corruption legislation.[108]

Borisov, anouncing the decision of GERB's executive council prior to the beginning of GERB's own negotiations with BSP and ITN, declared he would not govern with DPS–Peevski, Vaz, DPS–Dogan and MECh, sending this signed declaration to PP-DB.[109] While PP-DB commended GERB for the decision, they still insisted that any future negotiation required GERB's signing of PP-DB's declaration and objected to the idea that negotiations about the legislative program of the parliament were contingent upon the election of a speaker.[110]

On 13 November, GERB met with BSP and ITN in closed negotiations. Both meetings were described as focusing mainly on policy and not on the composition of a future government, with a general consensus being reached about the poor economic state of the country.[111] BSP also met with representatives of PP-DB, during this meeting BSP did not explicitly agree to sign the PP-DB declaration, but did highlight certain policy proposals that they could work on together with PP-DB.[112]

On the evening of 14 November, Revival announced that they would also initiate their own negotiations, with the aim of forming a government excluding GERB and the two wings of DPS.[113] PP-DB for announced that they would not attend any negotiations or govern with Revival.[114][115]

On 22 November, an offer was made by Boyko Borisov for a leaders' meeting with PP-DB. PP-DB accepted GERB's idea for a public leaders meeting, asking for the meeting to focus on future government composition as well as the removal of Peevski's influence within the state.[116] GERB, for their part, responded by emphasising the fact that all initial negotiations must be focused on government formation, rather then other issues.[117] On 25 November, GERB held a press briefing in which they announced that they had agreed to hold a leaders meeting with PP-DB, however it would not be attended by Borisov personally but instead by a negotiating team composed of Daniel Mitov, Tomislav Donchev and Rosen Zhelyazkov. Borisov further offered support for the potential candidacy of Atanas Atanasov for Speaker of the National Assembly, while making clear that GERB wished to select any future Prime Minister, with their most likely candidate being Borisov himself.[118] PP-DB however immediately declared they under no circumstances were ready to support Borisov as a future Prime Minister.[119]

Contestation of the results and election conduct

edit

Velichie, which according to the results remained just below the 4% threshold with exactly 3.999% of the popular vote,[120] alleged that the elections had been rigged against them and promised to contest the election results.[121] They specifically accused GERB and DPS–Peevski of electoral fraud.[122] The party staged protests in Sofia for multiple days in a row calling for the annulment of the results.[123] There were reports that enough votes to put Velichie into the Assembly were misallocated to other parties in the vote count.[124]

The conduct of the election had allegations of mass vote buying and voter manipulation, leading civil society organisations to call for the annulment of the results.[125] President Rumen Radev noted the large amount of evidence supporting allegations of mass vote buying and called on the Ministry of Interior to reveal which parties were most complicit in the practice.[126] ITN leader Slavi Trifonov endorsed Radev's calls and additionally called for the resignation of the Caretaker Government due to their mishandling of the elections.[127] The BSP similarly called on the Prosecutors Office to respond to the allegations of mass vote buying and irregularities.[128] PP–DB said they wanted a comprehensive check of the results, pointing to irregularities like high turnout, high numbers of invalid ballots and discrepancies.[129] Revival have also called for a general recount of the results of the elections,[130] and they claimed to have calculated that between 400,000 and 500,000 votes were bought by all parties except them.[131]

On 7 November, Vice-President Iliana Iotova called the new parliament illegitimate.[132] This was criticised by Boyko Borisov, who called on Iotova to apologise or otherwise not go ahead with the first sitting of the parliament if she believed it to be illegitimate.[92] Iotova refused to apologise and reiterated claims serious irregularities in the conduct of the elections.[133]

The following parties have called for a full or partial annulment of the election: the BSP,[134] DPS–Dogan,[94] GERB,[135] ITN,[136] MECh,[137] and Velichie.[121] Multiple parties also announced they would collect signatures to send a partial annullment case to the Constitutional Court, which requires the support of 48 MPs.[136][134] ITN's case was sent with the signatures of 67 deputies of the last parliament, coming from their party, PP–DB, DPS–Dogan, BSP and Velichie.[138] BSP and Vaz also submitted a case with 55 signatures, and argued the president should appoint the cabinet.[139]

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edit
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