Wikipedia

2025 German federal election

(Redirected from Next German federal election)

Federal elections in Germany will be held to elect the members of the 21st Bundestag. They are currently scheduled to be held on 28 September 2025. However, the elections are expected to be brought forward to 23 February due to the collapse of the governing traffic light coalition during the 2024 German government crisis. If held early, the 2025 election would be the fourth snap election in the history of post-war Germany after those in 1972, 1983 and 2005.

2025 German federal election
← 2021 28 September 2025[a] 2029 →
All 630 seats in the Bundestag
316 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Olaf Scholz and Gustavo Petro in New York 2024 (cropped).jpg
Friedrich_Merz_2024.jpg
Robert Habeck at Washington D.C..jpg
Candidate Olaf Scholz[b] Friedrich Merz Robert Habeck[c]
Party SPD CDU/CSU Greens
Last election 25.7%, 206 seats 24.1%, 197 seats 14.8%, 118 seats
 
2020-02-14 Christian Lindner (Bundestagsprojekt 2020) by Sandro Halank–2.jpg
2019-09-01 Wahlabend Sachsen by Sandro Halank–039.jpg
Jan van Aken 2023 (cropped).jpg
Heidi Reichinnek.png
Candidate Christian Lindner Alice Weidel Jan van Aken &
Heidi Reichinnek
Party FDP AfD Left
Last election 11.4%, 91 seats 10.4%, 83 seats 4.9%, 39 seats
A map of Bundestag constituencies to be used at the next election.
Incumbent Government

Scholz cabinet
SPD–Green–FDP[d]



Background

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The Federal Cabinet recommended 28 September as the date of the election, which was approved by President Frank-Walter Steinmeier.[1] Following a government crisis, FDP leader Christian Lindner was dismissed from the incumbent government by Olaf Scholz on 6 November 2024, triggering the collapse of the traffic light coalition and leaving the government without a majority.[2][3][4]

Scholz announced that he would submit a motion of confidence to the Bundestag on 11 December 2024, which is expected to be brought to a vote on 16 December.[5] If the Bundestag does not give him a majority vote of confidence, he can propose a dissolution of the Bundestag to President Steinmeier. The President is not obliged to grant one, but in the likely case he chooses to do so, the governing parties and the opposition CDU/CSU have agreed to recommend 23 February 2025 as the date for the snap election.[6][7][8]

Electoral system

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Date assignment process

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The Basic Law and the Federal Election Act provide that federal elections must be held on a Sunday or on a national holiday[e] no earlier than 46 and no later than 48 months after the first sitting of a Bundestag, unless the Bundestag is dissolved earlier. The 20th and sitting Bundestag held its first sitting on 26 October 2021.[9] Therefore, the next election must take place on a Sunday between 31 August 2025 and 26 October 2025, with 28 September being scheduled.

Federal elections can be held earlier if the president of Germany dissolves the Bundestag and schedules a snap election. They may only do so under two possible scenarios described by the Basic Law.

  1. If the Bundestag fails to elect a chancellor with an absolute majority of its members on the 15th day after the first ballot of a chancellor's election, the president is free to either appoint the candidate who received a plurality of votes as chancellor or to dissolve the Bundestag (in accordance with Article 63, Section 4 of the Basic Law).
  2. If the chancellor loses a confidence motion, they may ask the president to dissolve the Bundestag. The president is free to grant or to deny the chancellor's request (in accordance with Article 68 of the Basic Law).

In both cases, federal elections would have to take place on a Sunday or national holiday no later than 60 days after the dissolution.[10][11][f] Under both scenarios, a snap election is not possible during a state of defence. Federal elections can also be held later, if a state of defence is declared. If a state of defence prohibits a scheduled federal election and prolongs a legislative period, new elections have to take place no later than six months after the end of the state of defence.

Changes to electoral system

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After the 2021 German federal election produced a Bundestag with 736 members – which made it the largest freely elected parliament in the world – renewed debate began over the system of awarding overhang and leveling seats in place since the 2013 election. The Scholz cabinet passed a reform law in March 2023 to fix the size of future Bundestags at 630 members. This is achieved by eliminating all overhang and leveling seats, as well as the constituency seat rule (Grundmandatsklausel) which awards full proportional representation to parties winning at least three constituency seats, even if they do not meet the five-percent threshold. Under the new legislation, a party's total number of seats will be determined solely by its share of party-list votes (Zweitstimmendeckung, "second vote coverage"). If a party wins more constituency seats in a state than it is proportionally entitled to in that state, it will only be awarded its entitled number of seats; a number of its constituency winners would be excluded from the Bundestag, in order of those that received the smallest vote shares. Parties representing minority groups are still exempt from the five-percent threshold.

The law was subject to constitutional challenges; the CSU and The Left, both of whom benefited from the previous system at the 2021 election, appealed to President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to veto it; nevertheless, Steinmeier signed the bill after personally determining he believed it was constitutional.[12][13] Immediately after the law was promulgated in the Federal Law Journal on 13 June, both party organizations, as well as the government of Bavaria controlled by the CSU, filed formal complaints to the Federal Constitutional Court.[14][15] Hearings were held on 23 and 24 April 2024. On 30 July 2024, the court upheld the principle of second vote coverage, but ruled that the five-percent threshold without exceptions was unconstitutional.[16] According to the principle that electoral law should be settled at least one year prior to an election, the court reintroduced the constituency seat rule as an interim measure for the 2025 election.[16]

On 14 March 2024, a law entered into force changing the boundaries of the Bundestag constituencies. As a result of the 2023 electoral reform, the number of constituencies would remain at 299, but with Bavaria gaining one constituency (Memmingen – Unterallgäu), while Saxony-Anhalt consequently lost one constituency (Anhalt). Lübbenau was also moved from Dahme-Spreewald – Teltow-Fläming III to Elbe-Elster – Oberspreewald-Lausitz in order to comply with population requirements. Minor adjustments were made to two Thuringian constituencies to align with new municipal boundaries, while 14 further constituencies were redescribed or renamed, but without changing their boundaries.[17]

Political parties and leaders

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See also: List of political parties in Germany

The table below lists the parties represented in the 20th Bundestag.

Parties Leader(s) Leading candidate(s) Ideology Seats Status
Last election Before election
Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 		Saskia Esken
Lars Klingbeil 		Olaf Scholz Social democracy
206 / 736
207 / 733
 Governing coalition
CDU/CSU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 		Friedrich Merz Friedrich Merz[18] Christian democracy
152 / 736
153 / 733
 Opposition
Christian Social Union in Bavaria
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 		Markus Söder
45 / 736
43 / 733
Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 		Franziska Brantner
Felix Banaszak 		Robert Habeck[g][19] Green politics
118 / 736
117 / 733
 Governing coalition
Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei 		Christian Lindner Christian Lindner[20] Liberalism
91 / 736
90 / 733
 Opposition
Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland 		Alice Weidel
Tino Chrupalla 		Alice Weidel[21] Right-wing populism
83 / 736
76 / 733
The Left
Die Linke 		Ines Schwerdtner
Jan van Aken 		Heidi Reichinnek
Jan van Aken[22] 		Democratic socialism
39 / 736
28 / 733
Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht 		Sahra Wagenknecht
Amira Mohamed Ali 		Sahra Wagenknecht Left-wing populism
Socialism
0 / 736
10 / 733
Ungrouped SSW Christian Dirschauer Stefan Seidler Danish minority interests
Frisian minority interests
1 / 736
1 / 733
AfD Matthias Helferich — —
0 / 736
1 / 733
Independent — — —
0 / 736
7 / 733

Campaign

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At The Left's party convention in October, former lead candidate Gregor Gysi announced an effort called Mission Silberlocke ("Mission Silver Locks") to bolster the party's prospects in the face of in-fighting and faltering polling. Gysi committed to run for re-election in his constituency of Berlin-Treptow – Köpenick, with former parliamentary group leader Dietmar Bartsch running for a third time in Rostock – Landkreis Rostock II and outgoing Minister-President of Thuringia Bodo Ramelow – the only Left member to have led a state government – contesting a Bundestag seat for the first time in Erfurt – Weimar – Weimarer Land II. The goal is to capitalize on the three men's relatively high personal popularities and give The Left the best chance possible to win three constituencies and ensure they remain in the Bundestag, and the effort is nicknamed in humorous reference to the their advanced ages. Party leader Schwerdtner is also running in the stronghold of Berlin-Lichtenberg and parliamentary group leader Sören Pellmann is seeking re-election in Leipzig II, which are both seen as likely holds for The Left. Experts also rated Gysi and Ramelow as favorites to win their respective constituencies, which combined would retain the bloc's representation.[23][24]

In November, various SPD legislators and leading figures – most prominently former party leader Sigmar Gabriel – began publicly calling for defence minister Boris Pistorius to be designated the party's chancellor candidate owing to its and Scholz's poor polling.[25] Polling for ARD showed Pistorius as the most favorably viewed national politician: 60% of voters thought he would be a good chancellor, compared to 42% for Merz and 21% for Scholz.[26] In a video released on 21 November, Pistorius ended what had become two weeks of public debate by disavowing any interest in running for chancellor and expressing his full support for Scholz.[27] Such a protracted and public debate, and party leadership's apparent inability to quickly control or restrain it, was seen as embarrassing and damaging; Jusos president Philipp Türmer directly called out Esken and Klingbeil for the "shitshow" at their national congress the following weekend. Nonetheless, Scholz was unanimously renominated as chancellor candidate by the party's executive on 25 November, which will be confirmed at the party's national convention in January.[28]

Members of Parliament standing down

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Name Party State Constituency Member since Ref.
Andreas Rimkus SPD North Rhine-Westphalia Düsseldorf II 2013 [29]
Peter Ramsauer CSU Bavaria Traunstein 1990 [30]
Renate Künast Green Berlin N/A 2002 [31]
Niels Annen SPD Hamburg Hamburg-Eimsbüttel 2005 [32]
Sarah Ryglewski SPD Bremen N/A 2017 [33]
Annette Widmann-Mauz CDU Baden-Württemberg Tübingen 1998 [34]
Yvonne Magwas CDU Saxony N/A 2013 [35]
Nadine Schön CDU Saarland St. Wendel 2009 [36]
Michelle Müntefering SPD North Rhine-Westphalia Herne – Bochum II 2013 [37]
Markus Grübel CDU Baden-Württemberg N/A 2002 [38]
Andreas Scheuer CSU Bavaria Passau 2002 [39]
Kai Gehring Green North Rhine-Westphalia N/A 2005 [40]
Sönke Rix SPD Schleswig-Holstein N/A 2005 [41]
Manuela Rottmann Green Bavaria N/A 2017 [42]
Volkmar Klein CDU North Rhine-Westphalia Siegen-Wittgenstein 2009 [43]
Paul Lehrieder CSU Bavaria Würzburg 2005 [44]
Christoph Hoffmann CDU Baden-Württemberg N/A 2017 [45]
Katrin Budde SPD Saxony-Anhalt N/A 2017 [46]
Dietmar Nietan SPD North Rhine-Westphalia N/A 2005 [47]
Michael Gerdes SPD North Rhine-Westphalia N/A 2009 [48]
Tabea Rößner Green Rhineland-Palatinate N/A 2009 [49]
Kordula Schulz-Asche Green Hesse N/A 2017 [44]
Erwin Rüddel CDU Rhineland-Palatinate N/A 2009 [50]
Heike Baehrens SPD Baden-Württemberg N/A 2013 [51]
Michael Roth SPD Hesse Werra-Meißner – Hersfeld-Rotenburg 1998 [52]
Thomas Hitschler SPD Rhineland-Palatinate Südpfalz 2013 [53]
Astrid Damerow CDU Schleswig-Holstein N/A 2017 [54]
Tobias Lindner Green Rhineland-Palatinate N/A 2011 [55]
Martin Rosemann SPD Baden-Württemberg N/A 2013 [56]
Sven-Christian Kindler Green Lower Saxony N/A 2017 [57]
Oliver Grundmann CDU Lower Saxony N/A 2013 [58]
Christine Aschenberg-Dugnus FDP Schleswig-Holstein N/A 2017 [44]
Maria Klein-Schmeink Green North Rhine-Westphalia N/A 2017 [59]
Dagmar Andres SPD North Rhine-Westphalia Euskirchen – Rhein-Erft-Kreis II 2021 [60]
Michael Grosse-Brömer CDU Lower Saxony Harburg 2002 [61]
Hermann Gröhe CDU North Rhine-Westphalia Neuss I 1994 [62]
Udo Schiefner SPD North Rhine-Westphalia N/A 2013 [63]
Max Straubinger CSU Bavaria N/A 1994 [64]
Bernd Westphal SPD Lower Saxony N/A 2013 [65]
Beate Walter-Rosenheimer Green Bavaria N/A 2012 [66]

Opinion polls

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Main article: Opinion polling for the 2025 German federal election
 
Local regression of polls conducted

Notes

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  1. ^ Expected to be brought forward to 23 February as a result of the 2024 German government crisis.
  2. ^ Scholz is the designated candidate for Chancellor. The SPD's co-leaders are Saskia Esken and Lars Klingbeil.
  3. ^ Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck are co-lead candidates, while Habeck is candidate for Chancellor as "Candidate for the people in Germany" (German: Kandidat für die Menschen in Deutschland).
  4. ^ Only SPD and Grüne remained in government following Christian Lindner's dismissal.
  5. ^ In Germany, with the exception of the German Unity Day, all holidays are determined on the state level, and because of that, they do not necessarily apply for all German states. Currently, legal holidays in all states are New Year's Day, Good Friday, Easter Monday, Labour Day, Ascension Day, Whit Monday, German Unity Day, First Christmas Day, and Second Christmas Day (Boxing Day).
  6. ^ Possibility 1 has not happened since 1949; possibility 2 has been used a total of three times (in 1972, 1982, and 2005).
  7. ^ prospected

References

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  63. ^ "SPD-Abgeordneter Udo Schiefner tritt nicht mehr an". Rheinische Post. 31 July 2024. Archived from the original on 2024-08-04.
  64. ^ Markus Schön (27 January 2024). "Nach 31 Jahren ist Schluss: MdB Max Straubinger (CSU) kandidiert nicht mehr für den Bundestag". Passauer Neue Presse. Archived from the original on 2024-01-27.
  65. ^ Björn Stöckemann (11 July 2024). "Hildesheimer SPD-Abgeordneter Bernd Westphal will nicht wieder in den Bundestag". Hildesheimer Allgemeine Zeitung. Archived from the original on 2024-07-15.
  66. ^ "Politik: Walter-Rosenheimer tritt nicht mehr an". Süddeutsche Zeitung. 23 February 2024. Archived from the original on 2024-02-25.
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