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2024 Nova Scotia general election

(Redirected from Next Nova Scotia general election)

The 2024 Nova Scotia general election will be held on November 26, 2024, to elect members to the 65th General Assembly of Nova Scotia.

2024 Nova Scotia general election
← 2021 November 26, 2024
55 seats in the Nova Scotia House of Assembly
28 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Tim Houston Zach Churchill Claudia Chender
Party Progressive Conservative Liberal New Democratic
Leader since 27 October 2018 9 July 2022 25 June 2022
Leader's seat Pictou East Yarmouth Dartmouth South
Last election 31 seats, 38.44% 17 seats, 36.67% 6 seats, 20.93%
Current seats 34 14 6
Seats needed Steady Increase14 Increase22
Popular vote by riding.
Incumbent Premier

Tim Houston
Progressive Conservative



The incumbent Progressive Conservative Association of Nova Scotia (PC) government, led by Premier Tim Houston since 2021, called a snap election seeking re-election to a second consecutive term. The PC's primary opponents are the Nova Scotia Liberal Party led by Zach Churchill and the Nova Scotia New Democratic Party led by Claudia Chender. Both opposition parties have new leaders since the last election.

Background

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During the 2021 election, the Progressive Conservatives included a commitment in their platform to introduce fixed election dates in the province. Under amendments to the provincial Elections Act introduced and passed in October 2021, the first fixed election date following the 2021 Nova Scotia general election was set as 15 July 2025 with all subsequent elections to take place on the third Tuesday in July of the fourth calendar year following the previous election.[1] However, the general assembly may be dissolved earlier by order of the lieutenant governor of Nova Scotia on the advice of the premier.[2]

Current standings

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Standings in the 64th General Assembly[3]
Affiliation House members
2021 election results At dissolution
Progressive Conservative 31 34
Liberal 17 14
New Democratic 6 6
Independent 1 1
Vacant 0 0

Incumbents not running for reelection

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The following MLAs announced that they would not run in the election:

Party MLA Riding
  Liberal Rafah DiCostanzo Clayton Park West[4]
Tony Ince Cole Harbour[4]
Keith Irving Kings South[5]
Lorelei Nicoll Cole Harbour-Dartmouth[4]
Kelly Regan Bedford Basin[6]
New Democratic Gary Burrill Halifax Chebucto[7]
  PC Keith Bain Victoria-The Lakes[8]
Steve Craig Sackville-Cobequid[9]
Pat Dunn Pictou Centre[9]
Larry Harrison Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley[10]
Allan MacMaster Inverness[11]

Timeline

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See also: 64th General Assembly of Nova Scotia
Changes in seats held (2021–2024)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Preston April 1, 2023[21] Angela Simmonds █ Liberal Resignation August 8, 2023 Twila Grosse █ PC
Halifax Atlantic February 22, 2024[22] Brendan Maguire █ Liberal Joined Progressive Conservative caucus █ PC
Pictou West April 12, 2024[23] Karla MacFarlane █ PC Resignation May 21, 2024 Marco MacLeod █ PC
Northside-Westmount October 22, 2024[24] Fred Tilley █ Liberal Joined Progressive Conservative caucus █ PC

Campaign

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Candidate contests[25]
Candidates
nominated		 Constituencies Party
PC Lib NDP Grn Ind Totals
3 30 30 30 29 1 90
4 24 24 24 24 22 2 96
5 1 1 1 1 1 1 5
Total 55 55 55 54 23 4 191

Leaders' debates

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2024 Nova Scotia general election debates
Date Organizers Venue Moderator(s)  P  Participant  A  Absent invitee  N  Non-invitee Source
PC Liberal NDP Green NSU
November 14, 2024 CBC Nova Scotia CBC Studios,
Halifax		 Tom Murphy,
Amy Smith 		P
Houston 		P
Churchill 		P
Chender 		N
Edmonds 		N
Baker 		[26]
November 21, 2024 CTV Atlantic CTV Studios,
Halifax		 Todd Battis P
Houston 		P
Churchill 		P
Chender 		N
Edmonds 		N
Baker 		[27]

Candidates by constituency

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Legend
bold denotes party leader
† denotes an incumbent who is not running for re-election

Annapolis Valley

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Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
PC Liberal NDP Green Independent
Annapolis David Bowlby[28] Carman Kerr[10] Cheryl Burbidge[29] Sara Adams[10] Carman Kerr
Clare Ryan Robicheau[30] Ronnie LeBlanc[10] Dre Taylor[10] Ronnie LeBlanc
Digby-Annapolis Jill Balser[31] Joey Amero[32] Shannon Long[10] Jill Balser
Hants West Melissa Sheehy-Richard[33] Brian Casey[34] Simon Greenough[35] James Omand[10] Melissa Sheehy-Richard
Kings North John A. Lohr[36] Richelle Brown Redden[37] Gillian Yorke[38] Dave Lowe[10] John Lohr
Kings South Julie Vanexan[10] Mike Hamm[10] Ramona Jennex[35] Sheila G. Richardson[10] Keith Irving†
Kings West Chris Palmer[39] Brad Beardsley[40] Paul Doerr[10] Madeline Taylor[10] Chris Palmer

South Shore

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Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
PC Liberal NDP Green
Argyle Colton LeBlanc[41] Lorelei Murphy[42] Lauren Skabar[35] Lynette Amirault[10] Colton LeBlanc
Chester-St. Margaret's Danielle Barkhouse[43] Laura Mulrooney[44] Brendan Mosher[45] Danielle Barkhouse
Lunenburg Susan Corkum-Greek[46] Melissa Duggan[47] Nick Jennery[35] Frank Fawson[10] Susan Corkum-Greek
Lunenburg West Becky Druhan[48] Jonathan Crouse[49] Nicholas Piovesan[10] Mitchell Thomas-Langford[10] Becky Druhan
Queens Kim Masland[50] Cathy DeRome[40] Brian Skabar[38] Kim Masland
Shelburne Nolan Young[51] Debbie Muise[10] Bridget Taylor[10] Nolan Young
Yarmouth Nick Hilton[52] Zach Churchill[40] Gillian Rowley[10] Adam Randall[53] Zach Churchill

Fundy-Northeast

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Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
PC Liberal NDP Green Independent
Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley Scott Armstrong[10] Gwynneth (Gwyn) Bellefontaine[40] Janet Moulton[35] Larry Harrison†
Colchester North Tom Taggart[54] Dustin Rekunyk[10] Christina McCarron[35] Jillian Foster[10] Tom Taggart
Cumberland North Bill Dowe[55] Kurt Ditner[10] Tyson Boyd[10] Elizabeth Smith-McCrossin[10] Elizabeth Smith-McCrossin
Cumberland South Tory Rushton[56] Liam MacDonald[10] Larry Duchesne[35] Tory Rushton
Hants East John A. MacDonald[57] Shannon MacWilliam[10] Abby Cameron[38] John A. MacDonald
Truro-Bible Hill-Millbrook-Salmon River Dave Ritcey[58] Frank Johnston[10] Cailen Pygott[10] Dave Ritcey

Central Halifax

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Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
PC Liberal NDP Green
Clayton Park West Adegoke Fadare[59] Elizabeth Eustaquio-Domondon[10] Wendy Hood-Morris[60] Rafah DiCostanzo†
Fairview-Clayton Park Nicole Mosher[10] Patricia Arab[61] Lina Hamid[35] Patricia Arab
Halifax Armdale Craig Myra[62] Ali Duale[63] Rod Wilson[29] Ali Duale
Halifax Chebucto Tonya Malay[10] Gerard Bray[64] Krista Gallagher[35] Jonathan Bradet-Legris[10] Gary Burrill†
Halifax Citadel-Sable Island Eleanor Humphries[10] Rob Grace[65] Lisa Lachance[35] Karen Beazley[10] Lisa Lachance
Halifax Needham Trayvone Clayton[66] Jon Frost[10] Suzy Hansen[35] Amethyste Hamel-Gregory[10] Suzy Hansen

Suburban Halifax

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Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
PC Liberal NDP Green
Bedford Basin Tim Outhit[10] Doris Robbins[40] Ryan Lutes[35] Kelly Regan†
Bedford South Damian Stoilov[10] Braedon Clark[67] Isaac G. Wilson[10] Ron G. Parker[10] Braedon Clark
Halifax Atlantic Brendan Maguire[68] Phil Chisholm[10] Cathy Cervin[69] Gadfly Stratton[10] Brendan Maguire
Hammonds Plains-Lucasville Rick Burns[70] Ben Jessome[10] Terry J. Eyland[10] Roger Croll[10] Ben Jessome
Sackville-Cobequid Paul Russell[71] Agatha Bourassa[10] Paul Wozney[72] Steve Craig†
Sackville-Uniacke Brad Johns[73] Thomas Trappenberg[74] Lisa Blackburn[75] Brad Johns
Timberlea-Prospect Trish MacDonald[76] Iain Rankin[10] Rose Gillam[29] Jane Matheson[10] Iain Rankin
Waverley-Fall River-Beaver Bank Brian Wong[77] Elizabeth Booth[78] Donna McCarthy[29] Anthony Edmonds[10] Brian Wong

Dartmouth/Cole Harbour/Eastern Shore

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Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
PC Liberal NDP Green Independent
Cole Harbour Leah Martin[79] Tania Meloni[10] Alec Stratford[80] John E. McStay[10] Tony Ince†
Cole Harbour-Dartmouth Brad McGowan[10] Vishal Bhardwaj[10] Kayley Dixon[81] Lorelei Nicoll†
Dartmouth East Timothy Halman[82] Stacy Chesnutt[83] Holly Fraughton[38] Tim Halman
Dartmouth North Karina Sanford[84] Pam Cooley[10] Susan Leblanc[35] Susan Leblanc
Dartmouth South Bea MacGregor[10] Barb Henderson[10] Claudia Chender[35] Claudia Chender
Eastern Passage Barbara Adams[85] Chris Peters[10] Tammy Jakeman [a][10][86] Barbara Adams
Eastern Shore Kent Smith[87] Doyle Safire[10] Don Carney[10] Kevin Conrod[88] Kent Smith
Preston Twila Grosse[89] Carlo Simmons[10] Colter (C.C.) Simmonds[35] Andre Anderson[10] Twila Grosse

Central Nova

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Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
PC Liberal NDP Green
Antigonish Michelle Thompson[90] Sheila Sears[91] John MacIsaac[92] Michelle Thompson
Guysborough-Tracadie Greg Morrow[93] George Grant[10] Deborah Martinello[10] Greg Morrow
Pictou Centre Danny MacGillivray[94] Kris MacFarlane[10] Mary Stewart[38] Pat Dunn†
Pictou East Tim Houston[95] Stephanie Quinn[10] Vernon Theriault[35] Tim Houston
Pictou West Marco MacLeod[96] Mary Wooldridge-Elliott[10] Carol Ferguson[10] Clare Brett[10] Marco MacLeod

Cape Breton

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Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
PC Liberal NDP Green Independent
Cape Breton Centre-Whitney Pier Darren O'Quinn[97] Joleen Magliaro[40] Kendra Coombes[35] Kendra Coombes
Cape Breton East Brian Comer[98] Joe Ward[10] Isabelle Lalonde[10] Brian Comer
Glace Bay-Dominion John White[99] David Alexander MacLeod[10] Kathy Chapman[10] John White
Inverness Kyle MacQuarrie[100] Jaime Beaton[101] Joanna Clark[38] Allan MacMaster†
Northside-Westmount Fred Tilley[10] Danny Laffin[10] Katelyn Armstrong[10] Fred Tilley
Richmond Trevor Boudreau[102] Rochelle Heudes[10] Marc Currie[10] Trevor Boudreau
Sydney-Membertou Brian MacArthur[103] Derek Mombourquette[10] Alison Aho[104] Steven McGrath[10] Derek Mombourquette
Victoria-The Lakes Dianne Timmins[105] Stephen MacAskill[10] Samuel Stirling[10] Adrianna MacKinnon[10] Stemer MacLeod[10] Keith Bain†

Opinion polls

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Voting intentions in Nova Scotia since the 2021 election

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Polling firm Dates conducted Link PC Liberal NDP Green Others Margin of error Sample size Polling method Lead
Abacus Data 7–10 Nov 2024 [p 1] 47 25 23 4 1 ±4.1% 600 Online 22
MQO Research 3–10 Nov 2024 [p 2] 47 20 24 7 2 ±5.0% 396 Online 23
Mainstreet Research 1–2 Nov 2024 [p 3] 50 22 25 N/A 3 ±3.9% 635 Smart IVR 25
Abacus Data 28–31 Oct 2024 [p 4] 45 25 26 4 N/A ±4.1% 600 Online 19
Liaison Strategies 28–29 Oct 2024 [p 5] 38 26 29 5 2 ±3.7% 701 IVR 9
Narrative Research 31 Jul – 14 Aug 2024 [p 6] 53 24 19 4 1 ±4.9% 400 Telephone 29
Narrative Research 7–29 May 2024 [p 7] 50 23 22 3 2 ±4.9% 400 Telephone 27
Narrative Research 6–17 Feb 2024 [p 8] 49 25 20 5 1 ±4.9% 400 Telephone 24
Narrative Research 1–21 Nov 2023 [p 9] 52 21 22 3 1 ±4.9% 400 Telephone 30
Narrative Research 1–14 Aug 2023 [p 10] 47 23 24 4 2 ±4.9% 400 Telephone 23
Narrative Research 3–16 May 2023 [p 11] 39 31 24 5 1 ±4.9% 400 Telephone 8
Narrative Research 8–23 Feb 2023 [p 12] 46 25 24 4 2 ±4.6% 450 Telephone 21
Narrative Research 2–28 Nov 2022 [p 13] 42 27 25 5 1 ±4.0% 605 Telephone 15
Narrative Research 4–23 Aug 2022 [p 14] 43 30 22 4 1 ±4.0% 585 Telephone 13
Angus Reid 7–13 Jun 2022 [p 15] 46 21 27 3 2 ±5.0% 330 Online 24
Narrative Research 3–22 May 2022 [p 16] 42 27 25 4 1 ±5.0% 380 Telephone 15
Abacus Data 14–21 Apr 2022 [p 17] 39 31 23 N/A 7 ±4.4% 500 Online 8
Angus Reid 10–15 Mar 2022 [p 18] 47 25 22 2 5 ±5.0% 366 Online 22
Narrative Research 8–23 Feb 2022 [p 19] 44 27 20 6 2 ±4.9% 396 Telephone 17
Angus Reid 7–12 Jan 2022 [p 20] 38 28 26 1 6 ±6.0% 320 Online 10
MQO Research 14–24 Nov 2021 [p 21] 41 23 27 5 3 ±4.9% 400 Telephone 14
Narrative Research 4–21 Nov 2021 [p 22] 42 26 24 5 3 ±4.2% 557 Telephone 16
Angus Reid 29 Sep – 3 Oct 2021 [p 23] 39 21 32 4 5 N/A 264 Online 7
2021 general election 17 Aug 2021 [p 24] 38.43 36.67 20.94 2.14 1.41 — 422,754 — 1.76
Polling firm Dates conducted Link Others Margin of error Sample size Polling method Lead
PC Liberal NDP Green

References

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  43. ^ "Barkhouse nominated as the PC candidate for Chester-St. Margaret's". Progressive Conservative Association of Nova Scotia. June 12, 2024. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
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  87. ^ "Kent Smith is the Progressive Conservative Candidate for Eastern Shore". Progressive Conservative Association of Nova Scotia. June 11, 2024. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  88. ^ "Your Green Party Candidate for Eastern Shore". Facebook. Kevin Conrod Green Party. November 4, 2024. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
  89. ^ "Twila Grosse re-offering as PC candidate in Preston". Progressive Conservative Association of Nova Scotia. July 5, 2024. Retrieved July 6, 2024.
  90. ^ "Michelle Thompson re-offering as PC candidate in Antigonish". Progressive Conservative Association of Nova Scotia. July 11, 2024. Retrieved July 11, 2024.
  91. ^ "Sheila Sears Nominated as Liberal Candidate in Antigonish". Nova Scotia Liberal Party. July 22, 2024. Retrieved July 23, 2024.
  92. ^ MacIsaac, John David (October 28, 2024). "I want to let all my friends know that I have been accepted as the NDP Candidate in Antigonish for this provincial election". Facebook. Retrieved October 30, 2024.
  93. ^ "Greg Morrow to represent Progressive Conservatives in Guysborough-Tracadie". Progressive Conservative Association of Nova Scotia. June 24, 2024. Retrieved June 24, 2024.
  94. ^ "Danny MacGillivray nominated PC candidate in Pictou Centre". Progressive Conservative Party of Nova Scotia. September 6, 2024. Retrieved September 7, 2024.
  95. ^ "Tim Houston reoffering in Pictou East". SaltWire. SaltWire Network. June 6, 2024. Retrieved June 7, 2024.
  96. ^ "Marco MacLeod to represent Progressive Conservatives in Pictou West". Progressive Conservative Association of Nova Scotia. June 25, 2024. Retrieved June 25, 2024.
  97. ^ "O'Quinn nominated PC candidate in Cape Breton Centre-Whitney Pier". Progressive Conservative Association of Nova Scotia. October 29, 2024. Retrieved October 29, 2024.
  98. ^ "Brian Comer re-offering as Progressive Conservative candidate in Cape Breton East". Progressive Conservative Association of Nova Scotia. July 8, 2024. Retrieved July 8, 2024.
  99. ^ "John White to represent Progressive Conservatives in Glace Bay-Dominion". Progressive Conservative Association of Nova Scotia. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  100. ^ Rodney MacDonald (October 29, 2024). "Congratulations to Kyle MacQuarrie on becoming the PC Candidate for the constituency of Inverness this evening". Facebook. Retrieved October 30, 2024.
  101. ^ "Liberal Candidate for Inverness riding in the 2024 Nova Scotia Provincial Election". Facebook. Jaime Beaton-Inverness County Liberal Candidate. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  102. ^ "Trevor Boudreau re-offering as Progressive Conservative candidate in Richmond". Nova Scotia Progressive Conservative Party. July 15, 2024. Retrieved July 17, 2024.
  103. ^ "MacArthur nominated PC candidate in Sydney-Membertou". Progressive Conservative Party of Nova Scotia. Sydney, Nova Scotia. October 15, 2024. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  104. ^ "Alison Aho nominated as NSNDP candidate for Sydney-Membertou". Nova Scotia NDP. July 10, 2024. Retrieved July 10, 2024.
  105. ^ "Dianne Timmins nominated PC candidate in Victoria-The Lakes". Progressive Conservative Party of Nova Scotia. Bras d'Or, Nova Scotia. September 16, 2024. Retrieved September 20, 2024.
  1. ^ Jakeman was the NDP candidate, but was removed by the party after the candidate deadline. She was subsequently listed as an independent candidate by Elections Nova Scotia.

Opinion poll sources

edit
  1. ^ "Abacus Data Poll: Nova Scotia PCs extend lead as campaign hits halfway mark". Abacus Data. November 13, 2024. Retrieved November 13, 2024.
  2. ^ "Majority Favours Tim Houston and His PCs Lead Everywhere". MQO Research. November 12, 2024. Retrieved November 12, 2024.
  3. ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Nova Scotia" (PDF). Mainstreet Research. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
  4. ^ "Abacus Data Poll: Nova Scotia PCs lead by 19: Why Tim Houston is well positioned to be re-elected". Abacus Data. November 2, 2024. Retrieved November 2, 2024.
  5. ^ "Nova Scotia PCs lead NDP at Beginning of Campaign". Liaison Strategies. October 31, 2024. Retrieved October 31, 2024.
  6. ^ "Satisfaction with the provincial government increases. The PCs maintain a strong lead in terms of voter support" (PDF). Narrative Research. August 23, 2024. Retrieved August 26, 2024.
  7. ^ "The PCs maintain a strong lead in terms of voter support, despite declining levels of satisfaction with the provincial government's performance" (PDF). Narrative Research. June 6, 2024. Retrieved June 6, 2024.
  8. ^ "NS: The PCs maintain their lead in terms of voter support" (PDF). Narrative Research. February 28, 2024. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
  9. ^ "NS: The PCs increase their lead in terms of voter support" (PDF). Narrative Research. December 5, 2023. Retrieved December 5, 2023.
  10. ^ "A majority remain satisfied with the provincial government's performance" (PDF). Narrative Research. August 24, 2023. Retrieved August 24, 2023.
  11. ^ "While a majority remain satisfied with the provincial government's performance, the PCs have less of a lead in terms of voter support" (PDF). Narrative Research. May 24, 2023. Retrieved May 24, 2023.
  12. ^ "NS: Satisfaction with Houston government's performance has declined since last November, while voting intentions remain stable" (PDF). Narrative Research. March 7, 2023.
  13. ^ "Satisfaction with Houston government's performance remains high and stable in NS" (PDF). Narrative Research. December 1, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on December 2, 2022. Retrieved December 1, 2022.
  14. ^ "Satisfaction with NS's Houston government's performance remains high and stable". Narrative Research. August 2022. Archived from the original on August 31, 2022. Retrieved August 31, 2022.
  15. ^ "Atlantic Spotlight: Soaring inflation, floundering health-care systems leave East Coasters critical of governments". Angus Reid. July 13, 2022. Archived from the original on July 14, 2022. Retrieved July 19, 2022.
  16. ^ "Satisfaction with NS's Houston government's performance remains high, albeit slightly declined relative to three months ago" (PDF). Narrative Research. May 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on May 25, 2022. Retrieved June 15, 2022.
  17. ^ "State of the Province: How Do Nova Scotians Feel About the Provincial Government and Their Political Choices?". Abacus Data. April 2022. Archived from the original on May 29, 2022. Retrieved May 2, 2022.
  18. ^ "Provincial spotlight: Ontario, Alberta governments heavily criticized on nearly every aspect of provincial management". Angus Reid. March 2022. Archived from the original on March 31, 2022. Retrieved March 31, 2022.
  19. ^ "Satisfaction with NS's Houston government's performance remains high" (PDF). Narrative Research. March 2, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 2, 2022. Retrieved March 2, 2022.
  20. ^ "Spotlight on Provincial Politics: NDP edge PCPO in vote among Ontario voters, CAQ leads comfortably in Quebec" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. January 20, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on January 20, 2022. Retrieved January 21, 2022.
  21. ^ "Fall/Winter 2021 Provincial Report Nova Scotia" (PDF). MQO Research. November 2021. Archived (PDF) from the original on December 12, 2021. Retrieved December 12, 2021.
  22. ^ "High satisfaction with the performance of the newly-elected provincial government of Nova Scotia" (PDF). Narrative Research. November 29, 2021. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 30, 2021.
  23. ^ "Spotlight on the Provinces: Concerns over health care, economy drive increasing dissatisfaction with governments" (PDF). Angus Reid. October 27, 2021. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 27, 2021. Retrieved November 3, 2021.
  24. ^ "NS 2011 Election Results". Archived from the original on October 8, 2021. Retrieved September 3, 2021.
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