The 44th Quebec general election is scheduled to take place on or before October 5, 2026, to elect the members of the National Assembly of Quebec. Under the province's fixed election date law, passed in 2013, "the general election following the end of a Legislature shall be held on the first Monday of October of the fourth calendar year following the year that includes the last day of the previous Legislature",[3] setting the date for October 5, 2026. However, the act does not fetter the discretion of the Lieutenant Governor of Quebec to dissolve the legislature before that time, in accordance with the usual conventions of the Westminster parliamentary system.
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125 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec 63 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Background
editIn the 2022 general election, the Coalition Avenir Québec increased its parliamentary majority, winning 90 seats. The Liberals, despite finishing fourth in the popular vote behind Québec solidaire and the Parti Québécois, remained the official opposition winning 21 seats.[4] The Parti Québecois lost most of its remaining seats but managed to elect its previously seatless leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon to a seat.[5] The Conservatives increased their share of the vote to 13%; however, as their support was more spread out throughout Quebec, they did not gain any seats.[6]
Political parties and standings
editThe table below lists parties represented and seats held in the National Assembly after the 2022 provincial election.
| Name | Ideology | Position | Leader | 2022 Result | Current standing | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes (%) | Seats | ||||||
| Coalition Avenir Québec |
Quebec nationalism Quebec autonomism Conservatism |
Centre-right | François Legault | 90 / 125
|
86 / 125
| ||
| Liberal | Quebec federalism Economic liberalism Liberalism |
Centre | Dominique Anglade | 21 / 125
|
19 / 125
| ||
| Québec solidaire | Quebec sovereigntism Social democracy Environmentalism |
Left-wing | Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois | 11 / 125
|
12 / 125
| ||
| Parti Québécois | Quebec sovereigntism Quebec nationalism Social democracy Economic nationalism |
Centre-left | Paul St-Pierre Plamondon | 3 / 125
|
4 / 125
| ||
| Conservative Party of Quebec | Quebec federalism Economic liberalism Conservatism |
Right-wing | Éric Duhaime | 0 / 125
|
0 / 125
| ||
| Independents | N/A | 0 / 125
|
3 / 125
| ||||
| Vacant | N/A | 1 / 125
| |||||
Timeline
edit2022
edit- October 3: The Coalition Avenir Québec led by François Legault wins a second majority government in the 43rd Quebec general election.
- October 27: Liberal MNA for Vaudreuil Marie Claude Nichols was expelled from caucus after declining the Transport Critic role. She will sit as an independent. [7]
- November 7: Dominique Anglade resigns as the leader of the Quebec Liberal Party, triggering a leadership election to determine her successor.[8]
- November 10: LaFontaine MNA Marc Tanguay is named interim leader of the Quebec Liberal Party.[9]
- December 1: Former Liberal leader Dominique Anglade resigns as MNA for Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne.[8]
2023
edit- March 7: CAQ MNA for Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Marie-Louise Tardif temporarily quits her party after an investigation by the Sûreté du Québec over alleged threats against a former employee.[10]
- March 13: The Saint-Henri—Sainte-Anne provincial by-election is held, with Québec solidaire's Guillaume Cliche-Rivard being elected MNA.[11]
- March 28: Tardif rejoins the CAQ after the announcement that she won't face an accusation over her alleged threats.[12]
- May 16: Manon Massé announced that she will not seek re-election as female spokesperson at Québec Solidaire's next convention held from November 24 to 26, 2023, in Gatineau.[13][14]
- July 19: CAQ MNA for Jean-Talon Joëlle Boutin announced that she will resign from her seat on July 31, 2023.[15]
- October 2: The Jean-Talon provincial by-election is held, with Parti Québécois' Pascal Paradis being elected MNA.[16]
- October 7: Liberal MNA for Marguerite-Bourgeoys Frédéric Beauchemin is excluded from his party after he received a complaint for psychological harassment by Élyse Moisan, the president of the Liberal Party Youth Commission.[17]
- November 26: Émilise Lessard-Therrien is elected as Québec Solidaire's female spokesperson.[18]
- December 15: Beauchemin rejoins the Liberals after a mediation process led to the abandonment of the complaint for psychological harassment.[19]
2024
edit- April 16: CAQ MNA for Arthabaska and government whip Eric Lefebvre quits the party and his position of whip to run in the next Canadian federal election for the Conservative Party of Canada.[20]
- April 29: Lessard-Therrien resigns as Québec Solidaire's female spokesperson.[21]
- May 2: Sherbrooke MNA Christine Labrie becomes Québec Solidaire's interim female spokesperson.[22]
- September 3: CAQ MNA for Terrebonne and Minister of Economy, Innovation and Energy Pierre Fitzgibbon announced that he will resign from his office that week.[23]
- September 12: CAQ MNA for Saint-Jérôme Youri Chassin quits his party to sit as an independent.[24]
Candidates
editIncumbents not running for reelection
edit| Electoral district | Date announced | Incumbent MNA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Laurent | October 1, 2024[25] | Marwah Rizqy | |
Opinion polls
edit
- Polling aggregators
| Polling aggregator | Date updated | Source | MoE | CAQ | QS | PQ | PLQ | PCQ | Other[c] | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 338Canada | October 11, 2024 | [1] | [d] | 23.3 | 13.5 | 31.7 | 16.6 | 12.7 | 2.2 | 8.4 |
| Polling Canada | October 11, 2024 | [2] | — | 23.3 | 13.3 | 32.7 | 17.4 | 12.7 | 0.6 | 9.4 |
| 2022 election | October 3, 2022 | 41.0 | 15.4 | 14.6 | 14.4 | 12.9 | 1.7 | 25.6 |
| Polling organisation | Last date of polling | Source | Sample size | MoE | CAQ | QS | PQ | PLQ | PCQ | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leger | October 6, 2024 | 1,036 | ±3.04% | 24 | 14 | 32 | 17 | 12 | 1 | 8 | |
| Pallas Data | September 26, 2024 | 1,111 | ±2.9% | 21.6 | 11.7 | 33.9 | 17.6 | 14.0 | 1.2 | 12.3 | |
| Pallas Data[e] | September 3, 2024 | HTML | 1,191 | ±3.0% | 23 | 13 | 31 | 17 | 14 | — | 8 |
| Leger | August 25, 2024 | 1,041 | ±3.04% | 24 | 15 | 29 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 5 | |
| Pallas Data[e] | June 22, 2024 | 1,445 | ±2.6% | 21.7 | 13.2 | 35.0 | 16.7 | 12.2 | 1.2 | 13.3 | |
| Pallas Data | June 8, 2024 | 1,339 | ±2.7% | 21.5 | 15.9 | 33.1 | 17.1 | 10.6 | 1.8 | 11.6 | |
| Leger | June 3, 2024 | 1,015 | ±3.08% | 25 | 14 | 32 | 15 | 10 | 3 | 7 | |
| Leger | May 13, 2024 | 1,031 | ±3.05% | 22 | 12 | 32 | 17 | 12 | 4 | 10 | |
| Leger | April 21, 2024 | 1,026 | ±3.06% | 24 | 14 | 34 | 15 | 10 | 3 | 10 | |
| Pallas Data | April 21, 2024 | 1,256 | ±2.8% | 19.5 | 12.9 | 32.9 | 22.8 | 10.7 | 1.2 | 10.1 | |
| Leger | March 18, 2024 | 1,033 | ±3.05% | 22 | 18 | 34 | 14 | 10 | 2 | 12 | |
| Pallas Data | February 24, 2024 | 1,122 | ±2.9% | 23.1 | 16.5 | 31.4 | 14.5 | 12.8 | 1.7 | 8.3 | |
| Leger | February 5, 2024 | 1,032 | ±3.05% | 25 | 16 | 32 | 15 | 11 | 1 | 7 | |
| Pallas Data | January 24, 2024 | 1,175 | ±2.9% | 21.1 | 17.0 | 31.7 | 15.4 | 11.5 | 3.2 | 10.6 | |
| Leger | December 4, 2023 | 1,040 | ±3.04% | 25 | 17 | 31 | 14 | 11 | 2 | 6 | |
| Pallas Data | November 18, 2023 | 1,178 | ±2.86% | 24.1 | 16.1 | 30.4 | 15.5 | 11.3 | 2.7 | 6.3 | |
| Leger | October 30, 2023 | 1,026 | ±3.06% | 30 | 15 | 26 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 4 | |
| PQ wins the by-election in Jean-Talon on October 2, 2023. | |||||||||||
| Pallas Data | September 27, 2023 | 1,095 | ±3.0% | 34.5 | 15.4 | 19.0 | 14.7 | 14.6 | 1.9 | 15.5 | |
| Leger | September 25, 2023 | 1,028 | ±3.06% | 34 | 17 | 22 | 14 | 12 | 1 | 12 | |
| Leger | August 21, 2023 | 1,036 | ±3.0% | 37 | 15 | 22 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 15 | |
| Leger | June 12, 2023 | 1,042 | ±3.0% | 37 | 16 | 23 | 13 | 9 | 2 | 14 | |
| Angus Reid | June 3, 2023 | 506 | — | 33 | 17 | 22 | 13 | 12 | 3[f] | 11 | |
| Leger | May 1, 2023 | 1,201 | ±3.0% | 36 | 16 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 2 | 14 | |
| QS wins the by-election in Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne on March 13, 2023. | |||||||||||
| Leger | February 26, 2023 | 1,044 | ±3.0% | 40 | 17 | 18 | 14 | 9 | 2 | 22 | |
| Leger | December 10, 2022 | 1,002 | ±3.1% | 41 | 14 | 18 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 23 | |
| Leger | November 6, 2022 | 1,028 | ±3.1% | 36 | 19 | 18 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 17 | |
| 2022 election | October 3, 2022 | 4,169,137 | 41.0 | 15.4 | 14.6 | 14.4 | 12.9 | 1.7 | 25.6 | ||
Notes
edit- ^ Québec solidaire designates Nadeau-Dubois and Christine Labrie as co-spokespeople. Nadeau-Dubois was the party's candidate for premier during the 2022 general election.[1] The party's power is held by the general meetings of the members and a board of 16 directors; the de jure leader recognized by the Chief Electoral Officer of Quebec (DGE) is Benjamin Gingras.[2]
- ^ Tanguay became interim Quebec Liberal Party leader on November 10, 2022, following the resignation of Dominique Anglade. He is expected to serve as interim leader until a new leader is elected.
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other parties combined.
- ^ ±3.5% for the Parti Québécois; ±2.9% for the Coalition Avenir Québec; ±2.5% for the Quebec Liberal Party and the Conservative Party of Quebec; ±2.2% for Québec Solidaire
- ^ a b Sponsored by the Conservative Party of Quebec
- ^ Including PVQ at 2%
References
edit- ^ "Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois to take leadership role in Québec Solidaire as Manon Massé steps back". CBC News. May 16, 2021. Archived from the original on April 21, 2022. Retrieved May 13, 2022.
- ^ "Party details – Québec solidaire". Élections Québec. Retrieved August 21, 2024.
- ^ An Act to amend the Election Act for the purpose of establishing fixed-date elections, L.Q. 2013, c. 13, s. 3
- ^ "Le PLQ formera l'opposition officielle". TVA Nouvelles (in French). October 3, 2022. Retrieved October 4, 2022.
- ^ Lachance, Nicolas (October 3, 2022). "PSPP fait son entrée à l'Assemblée nationale". TVA Nouvelles (in French). Retrieved October 4, 2022.
- ^ Serebrin, Jacob (October 4, 2022). "Quebec opposition parties call for electoral reform after vote, seat results". The Globe and Mail. Retrieved October 4, 2022.
- ^ "Marie-Claude Nichols expelled from Que. Liberal caucus, will sit as independent". Montreal. October 27, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
- ^ a b Bruemmer, René (November 7, 2022). "Yielding to critics, Anglade quits as Quebec Liberal leader and MNA". Montreal Gazette. Retrieved November 7, 2022.
- ^ "Quebec Liberal Party names Marc Tanguay as interim leader". CBC News. November 10, 2022. Retrieved December 6, 2022.
- ^ Joe Lofaro (March 7, 2023). "MNA Marie-Louise Tardif temporarily withdraws from CAQ caucus amid police investigation". CTV News. Retrieved October 22, 2023.
- ^ "Québec Solidaire wins Montreal's Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne byelection". CBC News. March 10, 2023. Retrieved April 12, 2023.
- ^ QMI Agency (March 28, 2023). "Aucune accusation contre la députée: Marie-Louise Tardif réintègre le caucus de la CAQ". Le Journal de Québec (in French). Retrieved October 22, 2023.
- ^ "Manon Massé quitte son rôle de co-porte-parole". La Presse (in French). May 16, 2023. Retrieved August 7, 2023.
- ^ Charles Lecavalier (October 13, 2023). "QS facture les médias couvrant son congrès et fait marche arrière". Le Journal de Québec (in French). Retrieved November 28, 2023.
- ^ "La députée caquiste Joëlle Boutin démissionne". Radio-Canada (in French). July 19, 2023. Retrieved August 7, 2023.
- ^ "Results and statistics". May 17, 2021.
- ^ "Frédéric Beauchemin exclu du caucus libéral". Radio-Canada (in French). October 7, 2023. Retrieved October 22, 2023.
- ^ Charles Lecavalier (November 26, 2023). "Émilise Lessard-Therrien élue co-porte-parole". La Presse (in French). Retrieved November 27, 2023.
- ^ Karim Ouadia (December 15, 2023). "Parti libéral du Québec : le député Frédéric Beauchemin réintègre le caucus". Radio-Canada (in French). Retrieved December 18, 2023.
- ^ Marc-André Gagnon (April 16, 2024). "Eric Lefebvre quitte le caucus de la CAQ". Le Journal de Québec (in French). Retrieved April 17, 2024.
- ^ Radio-Canada. "Émilise Lessard-Therrien démissionne de son poste de co-porte-parole de Québec solidaire" [Émilise Lessard-Therrien resigns from her position as co-spokesperson for Québec solidaire]. CBC (in French). Retrieved April 30, 2024.
- ^ Nicolas Lachance (May 2, 2024). "Christine Labrie devient la co-porte-parole par intérim de Québec solidaire". Le Journal de Québec (in French). Retrieved May 3, 2024.
- ^ "Le « superministre » Pierre Fitzgibbon démissionne". Radio-Canada (in French). September 3, 2024. Retrieved September 4, 2024.
- ^ François Carabin (September 12, 2024). "Le député Youri Chassin claque la porte de la CAQ". Le Devoir (in French). Retrieved September 12, 2024.
- ^ Nicolas Lachance (October 1, 2024). "«Je ne veux pas être une mère à temps partiel», affirme la libérale Marwah Rizqy, qui quittera la politique en 2026". Le Journal de Québec (in French). Retrieved October 1, 2024.