Wikipedia

2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election

(Redirected from Nicole Shultz)

For related races, see 2022 United States gubernatorial elections.

The 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania. Democratic state attorney general Josh Shapiro defeated Republican state senator Doug Mastriano to win his first term in office. Shapiro succeeded Democratic incumbent Tom Wolf, who was term limited.

2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
← 2018 November 8, 2022 2026 →
Turnout60.5%
 
Nominee Josh Shapiro Doug Mastriano
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Austin Davis Carrie DelRosso
Popular vote 3,031,137 2,238,477
Percentage 56.49% 41.71%
Shapiro:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Mastriano:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No data
Governor before election

Tom Wolf
Democratic

Elected Governor

Josh Shapiro
Democratic

In the primaries on May 17, 2022, Shapiro was unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Mastriano, who was endorsed by former president Donald Trump, won the Republican nomination with 44% of the vote over former congressman Lou Barletta and former U.S. attorney William McSwain. Although the election was expected to be competitive due to Pennsylvania's reputation as a swing state, Mastriano had trouble fundraising, made few media appearances, committed multiple gaffes, was accused of antisemitism against Shapiro, and generated controversy from his far-right positions.[1][2][3][4][5][6] Mastriano's struggles helped Shapiro take a strong polling lead that continued up to the election.

Shapiro defeated Mastriano by almost 15 points, the largest margin for a non-incumbent candidate for Pennsylvania governor since 1946, and earned the most votes of a Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate at just over three million.[7][8] His large margin of victory was credited with helping down-ballot Democrats in concurrent elections. The victory also marked the first time since 1844 that the Democratic Party won three consecutive gubernatorial elections in Pennsylvania. According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Shapiro won independent voters by 31 percentage points, which contributed to Mastriano's defeat.[9][10]

Democratic primary

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Governor

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Campaign

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Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro ran unopposed and was described as the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee by The Philadelphia Inquirer and the Pennsylvania Capital-Star early in the campaign, with the Capital-Star reporting that efforts to recruit a primary challenger to the left of Shapiro had failed.[11][12]

Candidates

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Nominee
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Failed to qualify for ballot access
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Declined
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Endorsements

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Josh Shapiro
U.S. senators
State executives
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Party officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Individuals

Results

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Democratic primary (governor)[58]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Josh Shapiro Unopposed
Total votes 1,227,151 100.0%

Lieutenant governor

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Democratic nominee Austin Davis

Candidates

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Nominee
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Eliminated in primary
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Declined
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Withdrew
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Endorsements

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Austin Davis
State executives
State legislators
State representatives
Local officials
Labor unions
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Brian Sims
Organizations

Results

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Results by county
  Davis
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Democratic primary (lieutenant governor)[76]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Austin Davis 768,141 63.00%
Democratic Brian Sims 305,959 25.09%
Democratic Ray Sosa 145,228 11.91%
Total votes 1,219,328 100.0%

Republican primary

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In the Republican primary, leading candidates included former congressman Lou Barletta, Montgomery County commissioner Joe Gale, political strategist Charlie Gerow, former U.S. Attorney William McSwain, state Senator Doug Mastriano, and former Delaware County councilmember Dave White.

Several key issues, such as school choice, natural gas exploration in PA, and tax reform, were early themes in the Pennsylvania GOP debates before the primary election,[77] while voting laws in the Commonwealth were a later topic of debate.[78]

Due to his support for overturning the results of the 2020 presidential election and his role in the January 6 U.S. Capitol attack, many Republicans expressed concern about Mastriano's ability to win the general election. As a result, the party encouraged other candidates to drop out to allow for an alternative to Mastriano to gain traction.[79]

On May 12, president pro tempore of the Pennsylvania Senate Jake Corman dropped out and endorsed Barletta.[80] On May 14, former president Donald Trump endorsed Mastriano.[81][82] On May 12, The Philadelphia Inquirer reported that former U.S. Representative Melissa Hart would also drop out and endorse Barletta.[83] Mastriano won the primary with almost 44% of the vote, defeating his nearest competitor, Barletta, by over 23 points.

The New York Times reported in mid-June that Mastriano had been aided in the primary by the Pennsylvania Democratic Party and Shapiro's campaign with an ad equating him to Trump. Shapiro defended the move, saying the ad demonstrated the contrast between him and Mastriano as part of the general election campaign. The Times saw it as part of a nationwide strategy to gain easier opponents in November.[84]

Governor

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Eliminated in primary
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Withdrew
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Declined
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Debates and forums

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2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election Republican primary debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants
Key:
 P  Participant   N  Non-invitee 
Lou Barletta Jake Corman Joe Gale Charlie Gerow Melissa Hart Doug Mastriano William McSwain Dave White
1 Apr 27, 2022 ABC 27 Dennis Owens
Lisa Sylvester 		P N N N N P P P

Endorsements

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Lou Barletta
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
  • Rick Santorum, U.S. senator from Pennsylvania (1995–2007) and candidate for president in 2012 and 2016 (previously endorsed Corman)[122]
U.S. representatives
State officials
State legislators
Organizations
  • Oil and Gas Workers Association[130]
Jake Corman (withdrawn)
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
  • Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania (1995–2007) and candidate for President in 2012 and 2016 (switched endorsement to Barletta after Corman withdrew)[122]
Charlie Gerow
U.S. representatives
Organizations
  • American Conservative Union[133]
Doug Mastriano
U.S. presidents
Executive branch officials
Local officials
Organizations
Individuals
William McSwain
U.S. senators
Party officials
Jason Richey (withdrawn)
Individuals
Dave White
Executive branch officials
State legislators
Declined to endorse
Organizations
Newspapers and other media

Polling

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Graphical summary
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Lou
Barletta 		Jake
Corman 		Doug
Mastriano 		William
McSwain 		Dave
White 		Other
[a] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics May 3–16, 2022 May 17, 2022 20.3% 2.7% 34.3% 15.3% 9.8% 17.6% Mastriano +14.0
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Lou
Barletta 		Jake
Corman 		Scott
Martin 		Doug
Mastriano 		William
McSwain 		Dave
White 		Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) May 14–16, 2022 1,195 (LV) ± 2.9% 25% – – 37% 17% 10% 6%[c] 5%
Emerson College May 14–15, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 22% 2% – 34% 12% 9% 7%[d] 15%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) May 12–15, 2022 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 15% 1% – 29% 18% 8% 6%[e] 24%
May 13, 2022 Hart withdraws from the race
May 12, 2022 Corman withdraws from the race
The Trafalgar Group (R) May 6–8, 2022 1,080 (LV) ± 3.0% 18% 5% – 28% 14% 15% 9%[f] 11%
Fox News May 3–7, 2022 1,001 (LV) ± 3.0% 17% 5% – 29% 13% 11% 9%[g] 15%
Franklin & Marshall College April 20 – May 1, 2022 325 (RV) ± 6.9% 11% 1% – 20% 12% 8% 11%[h] 34%
The Trafalgar Group (R) April 11–13, 2022 1,074 (LV) ± 3.0% 19% 3% – 22% 17% 11% 8%[i] 19%
Franklin & Marshall College March 30 – April 10, 2022 317 (RV) ± 6.6% 10% 2% – 15% 12% 5% 14%[j] 40%
Eagle Consulting Group (R) April 7–9, 2022 502 (LV) ± 4.4% 11% – – 19% 13% 7% 6% 44%
Emerson College April 3–4, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 20% 4% – 19% 8% 12% 11%[k] 27%
Emerson College March 26–28, 2022 372 (LV) ± 5.0% 12% 2% – 16% 6% 6% 8%[l] 49%
Fox News March 2–6, 2022 517 (LV) ± 4.0% 19% 6% 3% 18% 11% 14% 2%[m] 25%
The Trafalgar Group (R) February 1–4, 2022 1,070 (LV) ± 3.0% 24% 5% 4% 20% 4% – 14% 29%
Public Policy Polling (D)[A] November 9–10, 2021 648 (LV) ± 3.8% 14% 4% 3% 18% 2% 1% 4%[n] 56%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) September 24–30, 2021 313 (LV) ± 5.6% 27% – 6% – 0% – 6%[o] 60%
WPA Intelligence (R)[B] May 10–12, 2021 826 (LV) ± 3.4% 16% – – 19% – – 17%[p] 49%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) February 16–24, 2021 272 (LV) ± 5.9% 20% – – 11% 3% – 8%[q] 60%

Results

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Results by county
  Mastriano
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Barletta
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   70–80%
  McSwain
  •   30–40%
  White
  •   50–60%
Republican primary (governor)[58]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Doug Mastriano 591,240 43.81%
Republican Lou Barletta 273,252 20.25%
Republican William McSwain 212,886 15.78%
Republican Dave White 129,058 9.56%
Republican Melissa Hart (withdrawn)[r] 54,752 4.06%
Republican Joe Gale 27,920 2.07%
Republican Jake Corman (withdrawn)[r] 26,091 1.93%
Republican Charlie Gerow 17,922 1.33%
Republican Nche Zama 16,238 1.20%
Total votes 1,349,359 100.00%

Lieutenant governor

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Eliminated in primary
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Declined

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  • Brandon Flood, former secretary of the Pennsylvania Board of Pardons (2019–2021)[159] (endorsed Coleman)

Endorsements

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Teddy Daniels
State legislators
Jeff Coleman
U.S. senators
Individuals
  • Brandon Flood, former secretary of the Pennsylvania Board of Pardons (2019–2021)[159]
Russ Diamond
Organizations
  • Stand for Health Freedom[162]

Results

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  DelRosso
  •   10–20%
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Saccone
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  Daniels
  •   10–20%
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   50–60%
  Schillinger
  •   20–30%
  •   40–50%
  Coleman
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Diamond
  •   60–70%
  Brown
  •   20–30%
  •   40–50%
  Frye
  •   20–30%
  •   50–60%
Republican primary (lieutenant governor)[76]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Carrie DelRosso 318,970 25.59%
Republican Rick Saccone 195,774 15.71%
Republican Teddy Daniels 150,935 12.11%
Republican Clarice Schillinger 148,442 11.91%
Republican Jeff Coleman 126,072 10.11%
Republican James Jones 113,966 9.14%
Republican Russ Diamond 74,265 5.96%
Republican John Brown 59,267 4.75%
Republican Chris Frye 58,752 4.71%
Total votes 1,246,443 100.00%

Libertarian nomination

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The Libertarian Party nominees qualified for the general election ballot on August 1.[163][164][165]

Governor

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Nominee

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  • Matt Hackenburg, aerospace computer engineer[166]

Eliminated in board vote

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Withdrew

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Lieutenant governor

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Nominee

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Withdrew

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  • Nicole Shultz, auditor of Windsor Township, York County (2022–present) and treasurer of the Libertarian Party of Pennsylvania (2021–2022) (ran for Governor)[150][168][169][167]

Green convention

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The Green Party nominees qualified for the general election ballot on August 1.[163][164][165]

Governor

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Nominee

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Withdrew

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Lieutenant governor

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Nominee

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Keystone nomination

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Governor

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Nominee

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Withdrew

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Lieutenant governor

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Nominee

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  • Nicole Shultz (Keystone nominee), auditor of Windsor Township, York County (2022–present) and treasurer of the Keystone Party of Pennsylvania (2022–present) (originally ran as a Libertarian for lieutenant governor and later governor)[175][168][179][165]

General election

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Campaign

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Attorney General Josh Shapiro ran a progressive campaign emphasizing protecting abortion rights, voter rights, and raising the state's minimum wage to $15 an hour. On criminal justice issues, Shapiro promised to sign a bill abolishing the death penalty having previously supported it, but also faced criticism from some left-wing voters for adopting a "tough on crime" image. In addition, he has openly feuded with Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner.[180]

State Senator Doug Mastriano positioned himself as a staunch ally of former president Donald Trump, promoting conspiracy theories about the 2020 election, defense of Confederate monuments,[181] arming school teachers with firearms,[182] and disobeying COVID-19 safety protocols.[183] Mastriano also drew accusations of antisemitism for using anti-semitic dogwhistles against Shapiro.[6] One of Mastriano's most vocal supporters was Andrew Torba, the CEO of far-right social media website Gab, a website on which the perpetrator of the Tree of Life Synagogue shooting posted before committing the massacre. Torba donated $500 to the Mastriano campaign, and Mastriano himself told the Gab founder in an interview, "Thank God for what you've done."[184]

No debate was held during the general election, as Shapiro and Mastriano were unable to come to an agreement on how to debate.[185] In addition, Mastriano did not release his first general election ads until October, while the more well-funded Shapiro had already spent $18.6 million in television broadcasting by that time.[186] These factors, combined with Mastriano's refusal to talk to major media outlets and decision to ban journalists from campaign rallies, severely limited his voter outreach.[187]

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[188] Likely D September 29, 2022
Inside Elections[189] Lean D October 7, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[190] Likely D September 28, 2022
Politico[191] Likely D October 25, 2022
RCP[192] Lean D November 2, 2022
Fox News[193] Likely D November 1, 2022
538[194] Solid D October 28, 2022
Elections Daily[195] Likely D November 7, 2022

Endorsements

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Josh Shapiro (D)
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
State officials
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Party officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers and other media
Individuals
Doug Mastriano (R)
U.S. presidents
Executive branch officials
State officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Declined to endorse
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State officials
State legislators
Organizations
Individuals

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2022
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Josh Shapiro (D) $67,981,264 $54,967,428 $403,274
Doug Mastriano (R) $7,055,316 $7,081,556 $1,018,238
Source: Commonwealth of Pennsylvania[318]

Polling

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Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Josh
Shapiro (D) 		Doug
Mastriano (R) 		Other
[s] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics October 24–31, 2022 October 31, 2022 52.6% 40.6% 6.8% Shapiro +12.0%
FiveThirtyEight June 10 – October 31, 2022 October 28, 2022 51.5% 40.9% 7.6% Shapiro +10.7%
Average 52.1% 40.8% 7.2% Shapiro +11.4%
Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Josh
Shapiro (D) 		Doug
Mastriano (R) 		Other Undecided
Research Co. November 4–6, 2022 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 53% 41% 2%[t] 4%
Targoz Market Research November 2–6, 2022 631 (LV) ± 3.8% 52% 46% 3%[u] –
InsiderAdvantage (R) November 3, 2022 750 (LV) ± 3.6% 51% 43% 3%[v] 4%
The Trafalgar Group (R) November 1–3, 2022 1,097 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 45% 2% 3%
Remington Research Group (R) November 1–2, 2022 1,180 (LV) ± 2.8% 52% 40% 3%[w] 4%
Marist College October 31 – November 2, 2022 1,152 (RV) ± 3.8% 54% 39% 1%[x] 7%
1,021 (LV) ± 4.0% 54% 40% – 5%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) October 28 – November 1, 2022 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 52% 38% 1%[y] 9%
Emerson College October 28–31, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 41% 5%[z] 5%
53% 43% 5%[aa] –
Suffolk University October 27–30, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 52% 40% 1%[ab] 7%
Fox News October 26–30, 2022 1,005 (RV) ± 3.0% 53% 37% 4%[ac] 6%
Big Data Poll October 27–28, 2022 1,005 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 44% 4%[ad] 4%
co/efficient (R) October 26–28, 2022 1,716 (LV) ± 3.4% 51% 41% 4%[ae] 4%
Muhlenberg College October 24–28, 2022 460 (LV) ± 6.0% 54% 40% 2%[af] 4%
Wick Insights (R) October 26–27, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.2% 49% 43% 2%[ag] 6%
Siena Research/NYT October 24–26, 2022 620 (LV) ± 4.4% 53% 40% <1%[ah] 7%
InsiderAdvantage (R) Archived October 27, 2022, at the Wayback Machine October 25, 2022 750 (LV) ± 3.6% 50% 42% 4%[ai] 4%
YouGov/CBS News October 21–24, 2022 1,084 (LV) ± 4.1% 54% 45% – –
Franklin & Marshall College Archived October 27, 2022, at the Wayback Machine October 14–23, 2022 620 (RV) ± 5.3% 54% 32% 6%[aj] 10%
384 (LV) ± 6.8% 58% 36% – –
Rasmussen Reports (R) October 19–20, 2022 972 (LV) ± 3.0% 43% 40% 6%[ak] 10%
Echelon Insights October 18–20, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.8% 50% 38% 3%[al] 8%
InsiderAdvantage (R) October 19, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 49% 42% 3%[am] 6%
CNN/SSRS October 13–17, 2022 901 (RV) ± 4.1% 56% 39% 5%[an] –
703 (LV) ± 4.6% 56% 41% 2%[ao] –
Wick Insights October 8–14, 2022 1,013 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 46% 2%[ap] 3%
Patriot Polling October 10–12, 2022 857 (RV) – 50% 45% – 5%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) October 4–12, 2022 1,400 (LV) ± 4.4% 53% 42% 1%[aq] 4%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[C] October 8–11, 2022 1,078 (LV) ± 2.9% 53% 44% 1%[ar] 2%
Monmouth University September 29 – October 3, 2022 610 (RV) ± 4.8% 54% 38% – 8%
Suffolk University September 27–30, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 37% 2%[as] 13%
Emerson College September 23–26, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 41% 2%[at] 7%
Fox News September 19–25, 2022 1,008 (RV) ± 3% 51% 40% – 9%
Franklin & Marshall College September 19–25, 2022 517 (RV) ± 5.6% 51% 37% – 12%
InsiderAdvantage (R) September 23–24, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 52% 37% 4%[au] 7%
Marist College September 19–22, 2022 1,242 (RV) ± 3.5% 53% 40% <1%[av] 6%
1,043 (LV) ± 3.8% 54% 42% – 4%
The Phillips Academy Poll September 16–19, 2022 759 (RV) ± 3.6% 46% 43% 12%
Muhlenberg College September 13–16, 2022 420 (LV) ± 6.0% 53% 42% 1%[aw] 3%
The Trafalgar Group (R) September 13–15, 2022 1,078 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 45% 4%[ax] 3%
Monmouth University September 8–12, 2022 605 (RV) ± 4.0% 54% 36% – –
YouGov/CBS News September 6–12, 2022 1,188 (LV) ± 3.8% 55% 44% – 1%
RABA Research August 31 – September 3, 2022 679 (LV) ± 3.8% 47% 41% 4%[ay] 9%
Survey Monkey (D)[D] August 31 – September 1, 2022 1,012 (RV) ± 3.0% 53% 32% – 15%
616 (LV) ± 3.0% 56% 35% – 9%
Emerson College August 22–23, 2022 1,034 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 44% 3% 6%
Franklin & Marshall College August 15–21, 2022 522 (RV) ± 5.3% 48% 36% 4%[az] 12%
The Trafalgar Group (R) August 15–18, 2022 1,096 (LV) ± 2.9% 49% 45% 2%[ba] 5%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) August 7–10, 2022 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 51% 37% – 11%
Fox News July 22–26, 2022 908 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 40% 1% 8%
Blueprint Polling (D) Archived July 26, 2022, at the Wayback Machine July 19–21, 2022 712 (LV) ± 3.7% 51% 39% – 10%
Beacon Research (D)[E] July 5–20, 2022 1,012 (RV) ± 3.1% 49% 35% 1% 12%
609 (LV) ± 4.0% 52% 39% 1% 7%
Global Strategy Group (D)[F] July 14–19, 2022 1,200 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 42% – 7%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) June 12–19, 2022 1,382 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 46% – 5%
Cygnal (R) June 16–17, 2022 535 (LV) ± 4.2% 48% 45% – 7%
Suffolk University June 10–13, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 40% 3%[bb] 13%
Hypothetical polling
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Democrat 		Generic
Republican 		Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R) May 12–18, 2022 600 (RV) ± 4.6% 47% 45% 8%

Results

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2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election[319]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic
3,031,137 56.49% −1.28%
Republican
2,238,477 41.71% +1.01%
Libertarian
  • Matt Hackenburg
  • Tim McMaster
 51,611 0.96% −0.02%
Green
  • Christina DiGiulio
  • Michael Bagdes-Canning
 24,436 0.46% −0.09%
Keystone
  • Joe Soloski
  • Nicole Shultz
 20,518 0.38% N/A
Total votes 5,366,179 100.0% N/A
Turnout 60.53%
Registered electors 8,864,831
Democratic hold

By county

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County[320] Josh Shapiro
Democratic Party 		Doug Mastriano
Republican Party 		Jonathan Hackenburg
Libertarian Party 		Christina Digiulio
Green Party 		Joseph Soloski
Keystone Party 		Margin Total
votes
# # % # % # % # % # % # %
Adams 18,821 40.51% 26,819 57.73% 467 1.01% 160 0.34% 192 0.41% -7,998 -17.22% 46,459
Allegheny 393,386 68.68% 169,913 29.66% 5,354 0.93% 2,319 0.40% 1,841 0.32% 223,473 37.02% 572,813
Armstrong 9,523 33.46% 18,419 64.73% 265 0.93% 88 0.31% 162 0.57% -8,896 -31.27% 28,457
Beaver 36,917 50.39% 34,777 47.47% 811 1.11% 386 0.53% 371 0.51% 2,140 2.92% 73,262
Bedford 4,721 21.25% 17,198 77.40% 167 0.75% 56 0.25% 78 0.35% -12,477 -56.15% 22,220
Berks 78,757 50.87% 72,185 46.63% 1,936 1.25% 1,096 0.71% 844 0.55% 6,572 4.24% 154,818
Blair 17,716 35.20% 31,823 63.22% 412 0.82% 199 0.40% 184 0.37% -14,107 -28.02% 50,334
Bradford 7,389 31.47% 15,529 66.14% 279 1.19% 164 0.70% 118 0.50% -8,140 -34.67% 23,479
Bucks 185,339 59.02% 122,982 39.16% 2,935 0.93% 1,694 0.54% 1,091 0.35% 62,357 19.86% 314,041
Butler 40,065 42.87% 51,546 55.15% 1,101 1.18% 367 0.39% 382 0.41% -11,481 -12.28% 93,461
Cambria 22,885 40.66% 32,381 57.53% 489 0.87% 291 0.52% 235 0.42% -9,496 -16.87% 56,281
Cameron 639 33.81% 1,200 63.49% 26 1.38% 3 0.16% 22 1.16% -561 -29.68% 1,890
Carbon 10,743 40.90% 14,943 56.90% 326 1.24% 151 0.57% 101 0.38% -4,200 -16.00% 26,264
Centre 35,653 57.49% 25,201 40.64% 654 1.05% 209 0.34% 300 0.48% 10,452 16.85% 62,017
Chester 160,796 62.32% 92,585 35.88% 2,713 1.05% 1,093 0.42% 838 0.32% 68,211 26.44% 258,025
Clarion 5,114 33.19% 10,019 65.03% 154 1% 57 0.37% 63 0.41% -4,905 -31.84% 15,407
Clearfield 10,326 32.87% 20,525 65.34% 316 1.01% 125 0.40% 119 0.38% -10,199 -32.47% 31,411
Clinton 5,293 37.61% 8,512 60.48% 134 0.95% 59 0.42% 75 0.53% -3,219 -22.87% 14,073
Columbia 10,148 41.08% 13,959 56.51% 372 1.51% 109 0.44% 115 0.47% -3,811 -15.43% 24,703
Crawford 12,609 38.41% 19,541 59.52% 338 1.03% 166 0.51% 175 0.53% -6,932 -21.11% 32,829
Cumberland 61,319 52.86% 52,280 45.07% 1,342 1.16% 513 0.44% 548 0.47% 9,039 7.79% 116,002
Dauphin 68,585 59.95% 43,580 38.10% 1,162 1.02% 604 0.53% 467 0.41% 25,005 21.85% 114,398
Delaware 170,162 67.83% 76,880 30.65% 2,102 0.84% 1,126 0.45% 585 0.23% 93,282 37.18% 250,855
Elk 4,843 35.41% 8,597 62.85% 121 0.88% 61 0.45% 56 0.41% -3,754 -27.44% 13,678
Erie 63,081 59.74% 40,433 38.29% 1,037 0.98% 569 0.54% 479 0.45% 22,648 21.45% 105,599
Fayette 20,120 42.92% 26,165 55.82% 322 0.69% 137 0.29% 133 0.28% -6,045 -12.90% 56,877
Forest 825 37.64% 1,340 61.13% 12 0.55% 6 0.27% 9 0.41% -515 -23.49% 2,192
Franklin 21,612 33.07% 42,731 65.39% 571 0.87% 210 0.32% 226 0.35% -21,119 -32.32% 65,350
Fulton 1,128 17.94% 5,092 80.99% 39 0.62% 13 0.21% 15 0.24% -3,964 -63.05% 6,287
Greene 5,142 39.14% 7,706 58.65% 108 0.82% 93 0.71% 90 0.68% -2,564 -19.51% 13,139
Huntingdon 5,597 30.34% 12,579 68.19% 145 0.79% 60 0.33% 67 0.36% -6,982 -37.85% 18,448
Indiana 13,032 39.80% 19,179 58.58% 248 0.76% 148 0.45% 135 0.41% -6,147 -18.78% 32,742
Jefferson 5,038 28.27% 12,433 69.77% 218 1.22% 68 0.38% 63 0.35% -7,395 -41.5% 17,820
Juniata 2,761 28.27% 6,851 70.14% 94 0.96% 41 0.42% 21 0.21% -4,090 -41.87% 9,768
Lackawanna 54,442 61.28% 32,697 36.80% 774 0.87% 583 0.66% 347 0.39% 21,745 24.48% 88,843
Lancaster 108,233 48.26% 112,040 49.96% 2,530 1.13% 740 0.33% 725 0.32% -3,807 -1.70% 224,268
Lawrence 16,023 44.15% 19,611 54.03% 323 0.89% 180 0.50% 157 0.43% -3,588 -9.88% 36,294
Lebanon 23,646 41.88% 31,731 56.19% 601 1.06% 257 0.46% 231 0.41% -8,085 -14.31% 56,466
Lehigh 79,991 58.67% 53,468 39.22% 1,591 1.17% 734 0.54% 550 0.40% 26,523 19.45% 136,334
Luzerne 57,598 49.63% 56,326 48.53% 1,100 0.95% 605 0.52% 435 0.37% 1,272 1.10% 116,064
Lycoming 15,643 33.80% 29,755 64.29% 523 1.13% 180 0.39% 184 0.40% -14,112 -30.49% 46,285
McKean 4,392 29.85% 10,082 68.53% 119 0.81% 55 0.37% 64 0.44% -5,690 -38.68% 14,712
Mercer 18,282 40.33% 26,273 57.96% 408 0.90% 216 0.48% 152 0.34% -7,991 -17.63% 45,331
Mifflin 5,119 30.39% 11,460 68.02% 150 0.89% 50 0.30% 68 0.40% -6,341 -37.63% 16,847
Monroe 32,009 54.41% 25,604 43.52% 650 1.10% 378 0.64% 186 0.32% 6,405 10.89% 58,827
Montgomery 285,712 69.18% 121,289 29.37% 3,463 0.84% 1,384 0.34% 1,168 0.28% 163,883 39.81% 413,016
Montour 3,640 46.33% 4,037 51.38% 106 1.35% 43 0.55% 31 0.39% -397 -5.05% 7,857
Northampton 72,269 55.63% 54,928 42.28% 1,466 1.13% 711 0.55% 527 0.41% 17,341 13.35% 129,901
Northumberland 12,052 36.58% 19,094 57.95% 466 1.41% 282 0.86% 1,057 3.21% -7,042 -21.37% 32,951
Perry 6,912 34.15% 12,928 63.87% 234 1.16% 84 0.42% 82 0.41% -6,016 -29.72% 20,240
Philadelphia 426,885 85.68% 65,293 13.10% 2,492 0.50% 2,372 0.48% 1,218 0.24% 361,592 72.58% 498,260
Pike 10,339 41.14% 14,371 57.18% 210 0.84% 128 0.51% 85 0.34% -4,032 -16.04% 25,133
Potter 1,513 21.29% 5,235 73.68% 77 1.08% 112 1.58% 168 2.36% -3,722 -52.39% 7,105
Schuylkill 21,203 38.25% 33,008 59.54% 674 1.22% 288 0.52% 262 0.47% -11,805 -21.29% 55,435
Snyder 4,867 31.69% 10,215 66.50% 166 1.08% 57 0.37% 55 0.36% -5,348 -34.81% 15,360
Somerset 9,473 29.08% 22,559 69.25% 274 0.84% 139 0.43% 131 0.40% -13,086 -40.17% 32,576
Sullivan 1,024 33.87% 1,923 63.61% 33 1.09% 27 0.89% 16 0.53% -899 -29.74% 3,023
Susquehanna 5,768 33.31% 11,153 64.41% 180 1.04% 110 0.64% 105 0.61% -5,385 -31.10% 17,316
Tioga 4,494 26.98% 11,840 71.08% 170 1.02% 84 0.50% 70 0.42% -7,346 -44.10% 16,658
Union 6,898 42.81% 8,897 55.22% 179 1.11% 75 0.47% 64 0.40% -1,999 -12.41% 16,113
Venango 7,777 37.18% 12,741 60.91% 220 1.05% 81 0.39% 100 0.48% -4,964 -23.73% 20,919
Warren 6,032 37.55% 9,704 60.40% 164 1.02% 77 0.48% 88 0.55% -3,672 -22.85% 16,065
Washington 45,030 48.10% 47,052 50.26% 906 0.97% 271 0.29% 358 0.38% -2,022 -2.16% 93,617
Wayne 8,466 37.22% 13,868 60.98% 211 0.93% 115 0.51% 83 0.36% -5,402 -23.76% 22,743
Westmoreland 77,152 45.93% 87,804 52.27% 1,613 0.96% 677 0.40% 722 0.43% -10,652 -6.34% 167,968
Wyoming 4,519 38.37% 6,966 59.15% 140 1.19% 91 0.77% 61 0.52% -2,447 -20.78% 11,777
York 83,649 44.86% 98,622 52.89% 2,628 1.41% 809 0.43% 768 0.41% -14,973 -8.03% 186,476

By congressional district

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Shapiro won 11 of 17 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.[321]

District Shapiro Mastriano Representative
1st 59% 39% Brian Fitzpatrick
2nd 76% 22% Brendan Boyle
3rd 92% 6% Dwight Evans
4th 66% 32% Madeleine Dean
5th 70% 28% Mary Gay Scanlon
6th 61% 37% Chrissy Houlahan
7th 55% 43% Susan Wild
8th 54% 44% Matt Cartwright
9th 38% 59% Dan Meuser
10th 55% 43% Scott Perry
11th 46% 52% Lloyd Smucker
12th 68% 30% Mike Doyle (117th Congress)
Summer Lee (118th Congress)
13th 34% 64% John Joyce
14th 44% 55% Guy Reschenthaler
15th 38% 60% Glenn Thompson
16th 48% 50% Mike Kelly
17th 62% 36% Conor Lamb (117th Congress)
Chris Deluzio (118th Congress)

Analysis

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Josh Shapiro defeated Doug Mastriano by 14.8%. While this marked a 2.73% Republican swing from 2018, it was still 13.18% larger than Joe Biden's win in the presidential race in Pennsylvania two years earlier in 2020, and 9.86% larger than Shapiro's reelection for Attorney General that same year. All counties in the Keystone State voted the exact same way they did in 2018, with Shapiro doing best in heavily populated Southeastern Pennsylvania, which is made up of Philadelphia and its suburbs, Berks County (Reading), the Lehigh Valley (Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton), the Wyoming Valley (Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, and Hazleton), the Susquehanna Valley (Harrisburg and Carlisle), Erie County in the northwest corner, and finally, Greater Pittsburgh in the southwest.

Doug Mastriano, meanwhile, piled up large margins in Pennsylvania's rural counties, but also won some populous places located in the western part of the state, like Butler, Washington, and Westmoreland counties near Pittsburgh. However, Mastriano significantly underperformed President Donald Trump's margins in the 2020 Presidential election in some of those counties; Westmoreland County, for example, voted for Trump by 28 points in 2020, but only backed Mastriano by 6 points in 2022. A similar leftward shift happened in neighboring Washington County, with Shapiro only losing the county by 2 points despite Joe Biden losing the county by over 20 points 2 years earlier. Mastriano also carried Lancaster, including the counties contained either fully or partially within his State Senate district, namely Adams, Franklin and York. Except for Adams and Franklin counties, Lancaster and York were once again carried by single digits by the Republican gubernatorial candidate just like 2018, as Mastriano's extremist views likely turned off moderate independents and Republicans in these areas.[citation needed]

Southeastern Pennsylvania, a strong Democratic area during elections, shifted more Democratic. This region, with strongly Democratic Philadelphia, anchored by its suburbs, has become a Democratic stronghold in elections, winning all Delaware Valley counties. Southeastern Pennsylvania piled up large margins in its suburbs. Its electorate is highly educated, affluent, and diverse. In addition to the region's strong Democratic tilt, abortion rights were a significant campaign issue among voters. According to CNN polling data,[322] 62% of Pennsylvania voters believed abortion should be legal, and those voters broke for Shapiro by a landslide margin of 81%–18%. College-educated voters, who made up 41% of the electorate, also voted heavily for Shapiro by a 64%–35% margin. Shapiro won 92% of Black voters, 72% of Latino voters, and 50% of White voters. According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Shapiro won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Mastriano's defeat.[323]

Voter demographics

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Voter demographic data for 2022 was collected by CNN. The voter survey is based on exit polls completed by 2,657 voters in person as well as by phone.[322]

2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election voter demographics (CNN)[322]
Demographic subgroup Shapiro Mastriano % of
total vote
Ideology
Liberals 94 4 25
Moderates 71 28 41
Conservatives 13 86 34
Party
Democrats 96 3 37
Republicans 16 83 40
Independents 64 33 24
Gender
Men 48 50 49
Women 63 37 51
Marital status
Married 52 47 64
Unmarried 65 33 36
Gender by marital status
Married men 49 50 36
Married women 55 44 29
Unmarried men 53 43 14
Unmarried women 73 27 21
Race/ethnicity
White 50 48 81
Black 92 8 8
Latino 72 25 8
White voters by gender
White men 43 55 41
White women 58 42 41
Age
18–24 years old 72 25 7
25–29 years old 69 31 5
30–39 years old 64 34 13
40–49 years old 55 44 11
50–64 years old 51 49 29
65 and older 51 47 34
2020 presidential vote
Biden 96 3 48
Trump 15 84 45
First time midterm election voter
Yes 66 30 12
No 54 45 88
Education
Never attended college 41 59 24
Some college education 59 38 21
Associate degree 54 44 14
Bachelor's degree 58 41 23
Advanced degree 72 27 18
Education by race
White college graduates 62 37 35
White no college degree 43 56 47
Non-white college graduates 76 23 6
Non-white no college degree 82 17 12
Education by gender/race
White women with college degrees 69 30 17
White women without college degrees 50 49 24
White men with college degrees 55 44 18
White men without college degrees 35 63 23
Non-white 80 19 19
Issue regarded as most important
Crime 55 42 11
Abortion 80 19 37
Inflation 33 66 28
Feelings about Roe v. Wade being overturned
Enthusiastic/satisfied 14 84 38
Dissatisfied/angry 84 15 59
Abortion should be
Legal 81 18 62
Illegal 16 83 34

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Gerow with 4%; Gale with 3%
  4. ^ Gerow with 3%; Hart with 2%; Gale and Zama with 1%
  5. ^ Gerow with 3%; Hart, Gale, and "Other" with 1%; Zama with 0%
  6. ^ Hart with 4%, Gale with 3%, Gerow with 2%
  7. ^ Hart with 4%; Gale with 2%; Gerow, Zama, and "Other" (volunteered response) with 1%
  8. ^ "Someone else" with 5%; Hart and Zama with 2%; Gale and Gerow with 1%
  9. ^ Hart with 4%, Gale and Zama with 2%, Gerow with 1%
  10. ^ "Someone else" with 7%, Gale and Hart with 3%, Gerow with 1%, Zama with 0%
  11. ^ Gale, Gerow, and Hart with 3%; Zama with 2%
  12. ^ Gale and Hart with 3%; Gerow with 2%; Zama with 0%
  13. ^ Zama and "Other" (volunteered response) with 1%
  14. ^ Gale with 3%; Richley with 1%
  15. ^ "None/other" with 4%; Gale and Richey with 1%; Ciarrocchi, Gerow, Laughlin, and Zama with 0%
  16. ^ "Someone else" with 10%; "Other" with 7%
  17. ^ Meuser with 3%, Cawley with 2%, "None/other" with 1%; Gale and Richey with 1%
  18. ^ a b Withdrew after deadline, remained on ballot
  19. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  20. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  21. ^ Hackenburg (L) with 1%; "All others" with 2%
  22. ^ Hackenburg (L) with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  23. ^ Hackenburg (L) with 2%; DiGiulio (G) with 1%
  24. ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  25. ^ "Other" with 1%; "Refuse" with <1%
  26. ^ Hackenburg (L) with 2%; DiGiulio (G) with 2%; Soloski (K) with <1%; "Someone else" with 1%
  27. ^ Hackenburg (L) with 2%; DiGiulio (G) with 2%; Soloski (K) with <1%; "Someone else" with 1%
  28. ^ Hackenburg (L) with 1%; Soloski (K) with 1%; DiGuilio (G) with <1%
  29. ^ "Other" with 2%; "Wouldn't vote" with 2%
  30. ^ Hackenburg (L) with 2%, Soloski (K) with 1%, Digiulio (G) with 1%
  31. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  32. ^ "Neither/Other" with 2%
  33. ^ "someone else" with 2%
  34. ^ Hackenburg (L) with <1%; Digiulio (G) with <1%; Soloski (K) with <1%
  35. ^ Hackenburg (L) with 3%, "someone else" with 1%
  36. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; Hackenburg (L) with 2%; "Not going to vote" with 1%
  37. ^ "Some other candidate" with 6%
  38. ^ DiGuilo (G), Hackenburg (L) and Soloski (K) with 1%
  39. ^ Hackenburg (L) with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  40. ^ "Neither" with 4%; "Other" with 1%
  41. ^ "Neither" with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  42. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  43. ^ "Other" with 1%
  44. ^ Hackenburg (L) with 1%; "Other" with <1%
  45. ^ DiGuilo (G) and Hackenburg (L) with 1%; Soloski (K) with <1%
  46. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  47. ^ Hackenburg (L) with 3%; "Someone else" with 1%
  48. ^ "Another party's candidate" with <1%
  49. ^ "Neither/Other" with 1%
  50. ^ Hackenburg (L) and "Other" with 2%
  51. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  52. ^ Hackenburg (L) with 2%; DiGiulio (G) and "Some other candidate" with 1%; Soloski (K) with 0%
  53. ^ Hackenburg (L) and "Other" with 1%
  54. ^ DiGuilo (G) and Hackenburg (L) with 1%; Soloski (K) and "someone else" with <1%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by the Democratic Governors Association
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by Club for Growth Action
  3. ^ This poll was sponsored by The Daily Wire.
  4. ^ This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Mastriano.
  5. ^ This poll was sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project.
  6. ^ This poll was sponsored by EDF Action and NRDC Action Fund.

References

edit
  1. ^ Otterbein, Holly; Montellaro, Zach (May 10, 2022). "Pennsylvania GOP panics over possible Mastriano nomination". Politico. Philadelphia, PA. Retrieved May 11, 2022.
  2. ^ a b Epstein, Reid J. (May 17, 2022). "Doug Mastriano, a far-right 2020 election denier, is Pennsylvania Republicans' choice for governor". The New York Times. Retrieved May 18, 2022.
  3. ^ Smith, Allan (May 17, 2022). "Far-right election denier Mastriano wins GOP race for governor in Pennsylvania". NBC News. Retrieved May 19, 2022.
  4. ^ Dunklau, Sam (May 17, 2022). "A far-right election denier wins GOP governor primary in swing state of Pennsylvania". NPR. Retrieved May 19, 2022.
  5. ^ Epstein, Reid J. (September 26, 2022). "Mastriano's Sputtering Campaign: No TV Ads, Tiny Crowds, Little Money". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved April 24, 2023.
  6. ^ a b "Jewish leaders call on GOP to take stronger stance on condemning antisemitism". ABC News. Retrieved November 13, 2022.
  7. ^ Scolforo, Mark (November 10, 2022). "Pennsylvania Democrats kept suburbs, gained rural voters". WESA (FM). Retrieved November 15, 2022.
  8. ^ Platt, Larry (November 11, 2022). "The Jewish Obama, Niceness Makes a Comeback, The Best PA Reporter Commutes From London (Midterm election recap)". The Philadelphia Citizen. Retrieved November 20, 2022. Why did Shapiro win this week by the largest margin of any non-incumbent gubernatorial candidate since 1946
  9. ^ Brownstein, Ronald (October 10, 2023). "McCarthy's fall and Trump's rise reflect the same bet among Republicans". CNN. Retrieved October 10, 2023.
  10. ^ "Exit Poll for Pennsylvania Results". CBS News. November 8, 2022. Retrieved October 2, 2024.
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edit
Official campaign websites for gubernatorial candidates
Official campaign websites for lieutenant gubernatorial candidates
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