2008 Northern Territory general election

General elections were held in the Northern Territory of Australia on 9 August 2008.[1] Of the 25 seats in the Legislative Assembly, 23 were contested; two safe Labor seats were uncontested. The incumbent centre-left Labor Party (ALP), led by Chief Minister Paul Henderson won a narrow third term victory against the opposition centre-right Country Liberal Party (CLP), led by Terry Mills. Labor suffered a massive and unexpected swing against it, to hold a one-seat majority in the new parliament.[2][3][4]

2008 Northern Territory general election

← 2005 9 August 2008 (2008-08-09) 2012 →

All 25 seats of the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly
13 seats needed for a majority
Turnout75.7 (Decrease 4.4 pp)
  First party Second party
 
Leader Paul Henderson Terry Mills
Party Labor Country Liberal
Leader since 26 November 2007 29 January 2008
Leader's seat Wanguri Blain
Last election 19 seats 4 seats
Seats won 13 11
Seat change Decrease 6 Increase 7
Popular vote 34,557 36,334
Percentage 43.18% 45.40%
Swing Decrease 8.76 Increase 9.67
TPP 49.3% 50.7%
TPP Decrease 9.2 Increase 9.2


Chief Minister before election

Paul Henderson
Labor

Elected Chief Minister

Paul Henderson
Labor

Results

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13 1 11
ALP Ind CLP
Results of the 2008 Northern Territory general election, Legislative Assembly[5]
 
PartyVotes%+/–Seats+/–
Labor34,55743.18  8.7613-6
Country Liberal36,33445.40  9.6711+7
Independents5,6967.12  1.041-1
Greens3,4424.30  0.130±0
Total80,029100.0025
Valid votes80,02995.92
Invalid/blank votes3,4074.08+0.34
Total votes83,436100.00
Registered voters/turnout110,28975.65-5.70
Labor39,41549.25
Country Liberal40,61450.75
Total80,029100.00

Independents: Gerry Wood

Arnhem and MacDonnell were won by the ALP by default as no other candidates nominated, and therefore do not contribute to votes in the above result table. The Greens ran in six of the 25 seats, averaging around 16 percent.[6] Minister for Natural Resources, Environment and Heritage, Minister for Parks and Wildlife Len Kiely was defeated as was Minister for Sport and Recreation, Corporate and Information Services Matthew Bonson.

Popular vote
Country Liberal
45.4%
Labor
43.2%
Greens
4.3%
Independents
7.1%
Two-party-preferred vote
Country Liberal
50.7%
Labor
49.3%
Seats
Labor
52.0%
Country Liberal
44.0%
Independents
4.00%

Background

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The CLP had dominated the Legislative Assembly from its creation in 1974 until 2001, when Clare Martin led Labor to government by one seat. Four years later, Labor was reelected in a landslide that surprised even the most optimistic Labor observers, reducing the CLP to only four seats. Labor even managed to oust Opposition Leader Denis Burke in his own seat. Martin resigned in 2007, shortly after a federal intervention, and was succeeded by Education Minister Paul Henderson.

In January 2008, Opposition Leader Jodeen Carney faced a challenge from her deputy, Terry Mills. Carney rebuffed a proposal to swap posts with Mills (in which she would have become deputy leader under Mills), instead calling a spill. When the vote was tied, Carney declared that a tie vote was not a vote of confidence and resigned, leaving Mills to take the leadership unopposed. Hoping to take advantage of a booming economy and the recent change in opposition leadership, Henderson opted to call an election a year before it was due.

The writs were dropped only days after the gazetting of new electoral boundaries. The Electoral Commission didn't have nearly enough time to notify voters of their new electorates, and a number of Labor MPs swept into office on the back of the 2005 landslide were unable to connect with new constituents on the hustings.

The CLP regained much of what it had lost in its severe beating of three years prior. Notably, it retook two seats in Palmerston that it had lost to Labor in the 2005 landslide. While the CLP won a slim majority of the two-party vote (aided by two Labor incumbents being reelected unopposed), Labor retained all but one seat in northern Darwin, allowing it to win a third term. Labor was only assured of reelection when it won Martin's old seat of Fannie Bay by a narrow 78 votes.

Key dates

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  • Issue of writ: 22 July
  • Close of roll: 8pm 24 July
  • Close of nominations: 12 noon 28 July
  • Postal voting commences: 31 July
  • Pre-poll voting commences: 4 August
  • Polling Day: 9 August

Retiring members

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The following members did not seek another term at the election.

Labor

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Country Liberal

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Independent

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Candidates

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Sitting members are listed in bold. Successful candidates are highlighted in the relevant colour.

Electorate Held by Labor candidate CLP candidate Greens candidate Independent candidates
 
Arafura Labor Marion Scrymgour Tristan Mungatopi
Angie Siebert
Jone Lotu
Araluen CLP John Gaynor Jodeen Carney Linda Chellew
Arnhem Labor Malarndirri McCarthy
Barkly Labor Gerry McCarthy Mick Adams Randall Gould
Barry Nattrass
Blain CLP Ken Vowles Terry Mills
Braitling Independent Aaron Dick Adam Giles Jane Clark Eli Melky
Brennan Labor James Burke Peter Chandler
Casuarina Labor Kon Vatskalis Gary Haslett
Daly Labor Rob Knight Wayne Connop David Pollock August Stevens
Drysdale CLP Chris Natt Ross Bohlin Justin Tutty
Fannie Bay Labor Michael Gunner Garry Lambert
Fong Lim Labor Matthew Bonson Dave Tollner
Goyder CLP Ted Warren Kezia Purick
Greatorex CLP Jo Nixon Matt Conlan Lenny Aronsten
Johnston Labor Chris Burns Jo Sangster
Karama Labor Delia Lawrie Tony Bacus Dorothy Fox
Natalie Hunter
Katherine CLP Sharon Hillen Willem Westra van Holthe Toni Tapp Coutts
Macdonnell Labor Alison Anderson
Nelson Independent Justine Luders-Searle Maureen Kohlman Gerry Wood
Nhulunbuy Labor Lynne Walker Djwalpi Marika
Nightcliff Labor Jane Aagaard Peter Manning Emma Young
Port Darwin Labor Kerry Sacilotto John Elferink Gary Abbott
Sanderson Labor Len Kiely Peter Styles
Stuart Labor Karl Hampton Rex Granites Japanangka
Wanguri Labor Paul Henderson Kerry Kyriacou Duncan Dean

Seats changing hands

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Seat Pre-2008 Swing Post-2008
Party Member Margin Margin Member Party
Braitling   Independent Loraine Braham 0.9 N/A 23.6* Adam Giles Country Liberal  
Brennan   Labor James Burke 0.6 3.4 2.7 Peter Chandler Country Liberal  
Drysdale**   Labor Chris Natt −0.5 9.6 10.1 Ross Bohlin Country Liberal  
Fong Lim   Labor notional - new seat 11.5 13.7 2.2 Dave Tollner Country Liberal  
Goyder**   Labor Ted Warren -0.5 7.4 7.9 Kezia Purick Country Liberal  
Port Darwin   Labor Kerry Sacilotto 1.9 5.0 3.0 John Elferink Country Liberal  
Sanderson   Labor Len Kiely 10.0 17.4 7.4 Peter Styles Country Liberal  
  • Members listed in italics did not contest their seat at this election.
  • *Braitling's second figure is CLP vs. Labor
  • **Due to boundary changes, Drysdale and Goyder were notionally CLP at the time of this election. However, as they were held by members of the ALP at this time, they are still included in this table.

Electoral pendulum

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The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in the Legislative Assembly according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two-party-preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.[7][8]

Pre-election pendulum

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Incumbent members who have become and remained an independent since the 2012 election are indicated in grey.

Members listed in italics did not re-contest their seat at the election.

Labor seats
Marginal
Brennan James Burke ALP 0.6
Port Darwin Kerry Sacilotto ALP 1.9
Fairly safe
Safe
Sanderson Len Kiely ALP 10.0
Fong Lim Matthew Bonson ALP 11.5
Fannie Bay Clare Martin ALP 15.7
Nightcliff Jane Aagaard ALP 15.7
Daly Robert Knight ALP 15.8
Karama Delia Lawrie ALP 16.0
Macdonnell Alison Anderson ALP 16.5
Johnston Chris Burns ALP 16.8
Casuarina Kon Vatskalis ALP 18.3
Stuart Karl Hampton ALP 18.9
Very safe
Wanguri Paul Henderson ALP 20.8
Arnhem Malarndirri McCarthy ALP 21.3
Arafura Marion Scrymgour ALP 23.6
Barkly Elliot McAdam ALP 24.2
Nhulunbuy Syd Stirling ALP 25.5
Country Liberal seats
Marginal
Greatorex Matt Conlan CLP 0.4
Drysdale Chris Natt CLP 0.5
Goyder Ted Warren CLP 0.5
Katherine Fay Miller CLP 2.7
Blain Terry Mills CLP 5.7
Fairly safe
Araluen Jodeen Carney CLP 7.5
Independent seats
Braitling Loraine Braham IND 0.9 v CLP
Nelson Gerry Wood IND 16.6 v CLP

Post-election pendulum

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Labor seats
Marginal
Fannie Bay Michael Gunner ALP 1.1
Daly Robert Knight ALP 5.6
Fairly safe
Johnston Chris Burns ALP 8.1
Safe
Nightcliff Jane Aagaard ALP 10.7
Karama Delia Lawrie ALP 10.8
Arafura Marion Scrymgour ALP 14.0
Casuarina Kon Vatskalis ALP 14.2
Wanguri Paul Henderson ALP 14.9
Stuart Karl Hampton ALP 15.1
Barkly Gerry McCarthy ALP 15.6
Very safe
Nhulunbuy Lynne Walker ALP 24.2
Arnhem Malarndirri McCarthy ALP Unopp
Macdonnell Alison Anderson ALP Unopp
Country Liberal seats
Marginal
Fong Lim Dave Tollner CLP 2.1
Brennan Peter Chandler CLP 2.6
Port Darwin John Elferink CLP 2.8
Fairly safe
Sanderson Peter Styles CLP 6.4
Goyder Kezia Purick CLP 8.4
Katherine Willem W-v-Holthe CLP 8.4
Safe
Drysdale Ross Bohlin CLP 10.1
Blain Terry Mills CLP 11.6
Greatorex Matt Conlan CLP 16.5
Very safe
Braitling Adam Giles CLP 20.3 v GRN
Araluen Jodeen Carney CLP 24.7
Independent seats
Nelson Gerry Wood IND 28.7 v CLP

References

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  1. ^ "NT election on 9 August". Ntnews.com.au. 21 July 2008. Retrieved 27 January 2012.
  2. ^ "Mills concedes defeat in NT election". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 11 August 2008. Retrieved 27 January 2012.
  3. ^ 5 Minutes 10 Minutes. "Opposition concedes NT election". Theaustralian.news.com.au. Retrieved 27 January 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)[permanent dead link]
  4. ^ "Labor narrowly wins NT election". News.smh.com.au. 11 August 2008. Retrieved 27 January 2012.
  5. ^ "Details of NT 2008 Election" (PDF). ABC.
  6. ^ "Henderson denies NT leadership an issue". News.theage.com.au. 12 August 2008. Retrieved 27 January 2012.
  7. ^ "2008 Redistribution". ABC.
  8. ^ "Details of NT 2008 Election" (PDF). ABC.
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Electoral sites

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Media sites

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Party sites

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