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Opinion polling for the 2002 New Zealand general election

Opinion polling was commissioned throughout the duration of the 46th New Zealand Parliament in the lead up to the 2002 election by various organisations.

Party vote

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Polls are listed in the table below in chronological order. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.

Graphical summary

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Local regression of polls conducted
 
Local regression of polls conducted, zoomed into smaller parties

Individual polls

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Poll Date[nb 1] Labour National Alliance ACT Green NZ First United
Future 		Prog
1999 election result[1] 27 Nov 1999 38.74 30.50 7.74 7.04 5.16 4.26 N/A[nb 2]
TV3/CM Research poll[2] 28 Feb 2000 51 30 5 4 4 3 – –
One News Colmar Brunton[2] 28 Feb 2000 50 31 4.3 5 4.3 2.1 – –
TV3/CM Research poll[3] 18 Apr 2000 53 28 3 4 5 1 – –
TV3/CM Research poll[4] 26 Jun 2000 46 34 4 4 5 2 – –
Herald-DigiPoll 30 Jun 2000 43 32 8 10 3 6 – –
June 2000 – Dover Samuels resigns from Cabinet pending an investigation into alleged sex crimes committed before he entered politics.
TV3/CM Research poll[5] 22 Aug 2000 47 36 3 4 5 2 – –
NBR-Compaq 7–10 Sep 2000 36 41 6 4 7 – – –
TV3/CM Research poll[6] 31 Oct 2000 44 39 5 3 4 2 – –
TV3/CM Research poll[7] 20 Feb 2001 49 34 4.5 3.6 4.7 1.5 – –
TV3-NFO 9 Apr 2001 50 32 3.7 4.2 5 2 0.5 –
NBR-Compaq 5 May 2001 43 32 5 6 6.5 – – –
One News Colmar Brunton 14 May 2001 44 41 2 – 6 – – –
TV3-NFO 11 Jun 2001 49 31 3.5 2 7 3.3 – –
8 October 2001 – Bill English is elected leader of the National Party.
One News Colmar Brunton 9–12 Oct 2001 46 39 2 3.1 5 3.5 – –
NBR-Compaq 19 Oct 2001 43 33 3.8 5.2 8 3.6 – –
One News Colmar Brunton 12 Nov 2001 44 40 4 3 5 2 – –
TV3/CM Research poll[8] 17 Dec 2001 45 35 3 3 6 3 – –
TV3/CM Research poll[9] 27 Feb 2002 54 30 2.2 3 6 2.2 – –
April 2002 – Jim Anderton leaves the Alliance and Laila Harré replaces him as leader.
NBR HP-Invent 7 Jun 2002 53 29 0.5 4.5 7.2 3.3 – 1.3
TV3-NFO 10 Jun 2002 56 24 1.2 3.9 9 3.1 <0.5 <0.5
Herald-DigiPoll 10 Jun 2002 49.9 31.2 0.1 4.7 7.7 2.5 0.1 0.7
One News Colmar Brunton 17 Jun 2002 53 27 0.5 4 9 3 – 2
Herald-DigiPoll 26 Jun 2002 52.1 25.7 0.5 4.4 8.3 3.8 – 2
Herald-DigiPoll 3 Jul 2002 51.2 24.6 0.4 5.7 9.6 4.4 0.1 1.4
TV3-NFO 5 Jul 2002 51 24 1.1 5 10.8 5.7 – 1.1
Herald-DigiPoll 11 Jul 2002 48 24.5 0.4 5.8 10.1 6.4 0.7 1.5
TV3-NFO 11 Jul 2002 48 24 1.2 6.3 7.9 7.9 0.9 0.8
One News Colmar Brunton 15 Jul 2002 46 27 1 8 9 6 – 1
Herald-DigiPoll 17 Jul 2002 46.7 23.1 0.4 5.5 11.3 8.3 1.1 1.3
TV3-NFO 18 Jul 2002 46 25 1.4 6 9 8 0.7 0.7
Herald-DigiPoll 22 Jul 2002 40.8 23.6 0.4 8.1 6.9 10.2 6.6 1.3
One News Colmar Brunton 25 Jul 2002 44 21 1 7 8 10 4 0.5
TV3-NFO 25 Jul 2002 43 21 1.4 8 9 8 3.9 1.2
Herald-DigiPoll 26 Jul 2002 38.8 23.2 1.3 8.9 9 9.6 5.4 1.4
2002 election result[10] 27 Jul 2002 41.26 20.93 1.27 7.14 7.00 10.38 6.69 1.70

Preferred prime minister

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Individual polls

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Poll Date[nb 1] Helen Clark Jenny Shipley Winston Peters Jim Anderton
TV3/CM Research poll[2] 28 Feb 2000 36 13 - -
One News Colmar Brunton[2] 28 Feb 2000 43 16 - -
TV3/CM Research poll[3] 18 Apr 2000 42 13 - -
TV3/CM Research poll[5] 22 Aug 2000 31 16 - -
TV3/CM Research poll[6] 18 Apr 2000 28 14 - -
TV3/CM Research poll[4] 20 Feb 2001 35 16 - -
TV3/CM Research poll[7] 20 Feb 2001 30 13 - -
TV3-NFO 9 Apr 2001 36 11 – –
One News Colmar Brunton 14 May 2001 37 17 – 3
Poll Date[nb 1] Helen Clark Bill English Winston Peters Jim Anderton
One News Colmar Brunton 9–12 Oct 2001 41 21 – –
One News Colmar Brunton 12 Nov 2001 40 19 – –
TV3/CM Research poll[8] 17 Dec 2001 41 17 - -
TV3/CM Research poll[9] 27 Feb 2002 41 10 5 3
One News Colmar Brunton 17 Jun 2002 52 17 4 2
One News Colmar Brunton 15 Jul 2002 48 19 7 2

Electorate polling

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Wellington Central

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Candidate vote

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Poll Date[nb 1] Marian Hobbs Hekia Parata Robert Reid
Dominion Post BRC 2-4 Jul 2002 32 15 1

Wigram

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Candidate vote

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Poll Date[nb 1] Jim Anderton Mike Mora Alec Neill Sean Gourley
UMR Research 22 Jul 2002 40.6 26.4 19 2

Waitakere

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Candidate vote

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Poll Date[nb 1] Lynne Pillay Laila Harré Marie Hasler
Consumer Link 24 Jul 2002 33 25 24

Coromandel

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Candidate vote

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Poll Date[nb 1] Sandra Goudie Max Purnell Jeanette Fitzsimons
Consumer Link 24 Jul 2002 33 27 24

Te Tai Tokerau

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Candidate vote

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Poll Date[nb 1] Dover Samuels Mere
Mangu
Marae DigiPoll 6–17 Jul 2002 44 9

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b c d e f g h These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  2. ^ United Future was founded in 2000 and Jim Anderton's Progressive Party was founded in 2002, thus neither party contested the 1999 general election.

References

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  1. ^ "1999 GENERAL ELECTION - Summary of Overall Results". Wellington: Electoral Commission. 27 November 1999. Retrieved 15 December 2017.
  2. ^ a b c d "Labour rockets up the polls with Clark top choice". Waikato Times. 29 February 2000. p. 2.
  3. ^ a b "PM, Labour honeymoon continues". The Press. 18 April 2000. p. 7.
  4. ^ a b "Labour support falls - poll". The Evening Post. 27 June 2000. p. 2.
  5. ^ a b "Labour retains lead". The Press. 22 August 2000. p. 2.
  6. ^ a b "Labour dips but still ahead - poll". The Evening Post. 31 October 2000. p. 2.
  7. ^ a b "Labour further ahead despite controversy". Waikato Times. 20 February 2001. p. 11.
  8. ^ a b "Latest poll sees Labour maintain lead". Waikato Times. 17 December 2001. p. 2.
  9. ^ a b "Poll news birthday lift for PM". The Press. 27 February 2002. p. 6.
  10. ^ "Official Count Results -- Overall Status". Wellington: Electoral Commission. 10 August 2002. Retrieved 15 December 2017.
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