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Opinion polling for the 2019 Canadian federal election by constituency

(Redirected from Opinion polling for the 2019 Canadian federal election, by constituency)

Various polling organizations have been conducting opinion polling in specific ridings in the lead up to the 2019 Canadian federal election. The results of publicized opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article.

Opinion polls have been conducted from the months following the previous general election held in October 2015, and have increased in frequency leading up to the October 2019 general election.

Given the expense of polling individual constituencies, constituencies are usually only polled if they are of some particular interest, e.g. they are thought to be marginal or facing an impending by-election. The constituencies polled are not necessarily representative of a national average swing. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system the true marginal seats, by definition, will be decisive as to the outcome of the election.

Constituency polls

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Alberta

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Edmonton Mill Woods

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 16, 2019 HTML 32.6 40.6 13.5 9.0 3.8 0.7 ±3.93 pp 623 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 41.2 41.0 12.7 2.2 0 1.1 ±0.0 pp 49,744 Election

Edmonton Strathcona

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 20, 2019 HTML 27.7 37.9 23.6 5.8 2.9 2.1 ±4.00 pp 623 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 20.7 31.2 43.9 2.3 - 0.5 ±0.0 pp 55,821 Election

British Columbia

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Burnaby South

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
2019 By-election February 25, 2019 HTML 26.02 22.63 38.90 0 10.65 1.80 ±0.0 pp 22,746 Election
Mainstreet Research January 10, 2019 HTML 26.3 22.0 38.8 0 8.7 4.2 ±3.6 pp 740 IVR
Mainstreet Research November 11, 2018 HTML 35.9 29.3 27.2 6.1 1.0 0.5 ±5.12 pp 366 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 34 27 35 3 0 1 ±0.0 pp 46,162 Election

Fleetwood—Port Kells

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 29, 2019 HTML 39.7 38.0 7.2 7.1 5.3 0 ±3.83 pp 654 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 46 29 21 2 0 0 ±0.0 pp 49,302 Election

Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 25, 2019 HTML 24.4 38.5 10.1 14.6 4.5 0 ±3.47 pp 796 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 30.4 35.2 30.7 3.5 - 0 ±0.0 pp 69,939 Election

Vancouver East

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 29, 2019 HTML 25.3 16.3 37.0 15.9 2.0 - ±3.02 pp 624 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 28 11 50 9 - - ±0.0 pp 59,113 Election

Vancouver Granville

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Wilson-Raybould Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research October 15, 2019 HTML 28.3 22.3 - - - 32.8 - ±3.94 pp 620 IVR[6]
Mainstreet Research September 24, 2019 HTML 30.2 23.3 7.7 6.5 0.9 26.9 - ±4.03 pp 592 IVR[6]
Justason Marketing September 5, 2019 PDF 27 15 6 12 - 37 - ±5.1 pp 361 IVR
Mainstreet Research August 28, 2019 Twitter 40.3 18.4 9.2 10.2 3.8 - 17.6 ±4.4 pp 493 IVR[5]
Mainstreet Research August 28, 2019 Twitter 31.9 17.1 7.9 10.4 3.9 28.8 - ±4.4 pp 493 IVR[6]
Mainstreet Research May 30, 2019 PDF 29.2 19.9 8.4 10.2 0 32.3 0 ±4.79 pp 418 IVR
Justason Marketing April 5, 2019 PDF 24 14 23 0 0 33 7 ±7 pp 195 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 44 26 27 3 0 0 0 ±0.0 pp 54,010 Election

Victoria

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research August 10, 2019 Twitter 27.1 17.2 22.2 28.3 3.5 0 ±4.1 pp 575 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 11.8 11.7 42.8 32.9 0 1 ±0.0 pp 72,136 Election

Manitoba

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Elmwood—Transcona

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 24, 2019 HTML 26.0 41.0 20.1 8.8 1.6 0 ±3.94 pp 617 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 29.5 34.0 34.1 2.3 - - ±0.0 pp 43,268 Election

Nova Scotia

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Central Nova

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 20, 2019 HTML 41.0 38.3 8.7 11.1 0.7 - ±4.46 pp 598 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 58.5 25.8 10.2 4.1 0 1.2 ±0.0 pp 44,496 Election

Cumberland—Colchester

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 26, 2019 HTML 39.0 35.8 4.5 15.1 1.8 - ±3.47 pp 616 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 63 26 5 3 0 0 ±0.0 pp 46,510 Election

Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 14, 2019 HTML 38.9 26.7 14.3 17.1 2.4 0.6 ±4.46pp 452 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 48 15 34 3 0 0 ±0.0 pp 48,451 Election

Ontario

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Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 20, 2019 HTML 31.6 39.7 8.0 15.3 3.7 - ±3.94 pp 620 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 41.5 41.7 10.2 5.2 0 0.7 ±0.0 pp 50,716 Election

Chatham—Kent-Leamington

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 22, 2019 HTML 34.8 49.4 9.8 2.2 1.7 - ±4.58 pp 458 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 37.2 41.7 18.3 2.6 0 0 ±0.0 pp 52,234 Election

Durham

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 20, 2019 HTML 35.4 43.1 8.5 6.7 4.3 - ±3.94 pp 620 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 35.7 45.1 16.0 2.5 0 0.5 ±0.0 pp 64,418 Election

Guelph

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 30, 2019 HTML 44.1 21.9 6.2 23.3 3.8 - ±3.99 pp 630 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 49 26 12 11 0 1 ±0.0 pp 54,682 Election

Kitchener Centre

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Oraclepoll Research October 8, 2019 PDF 43 23 6 26 2 - ±4.4 pp 500 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 48.8 30.4 16.6 3.1 0 1.2 ±0.0 pp 52,572 Election

Markham—Stouffville

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green Philpott Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research May 30, 2019 PDF 38.9 32.2 2.4 5.7 20.8 0 ±3.99 pp 601 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 49 43 6 2 0 0 ±0.0 pp 59,962 Election

Milton

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 30, 2019 HTML 39.8 38.8 4.3 10.3 3.6 0 ±4.08 pp 588 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 40 45 10 2 - 1 ±0.0 pp 49,518 Election

Niagara Centre

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research July 16, 2019 HTML 43.7 31.3 17.1 5.6 1.2 1.2 ±4.46 pp 482 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 36 30 32 2 0 1 ±0.0 pp 54,682 Election

Oakville

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research May 30, 2019 HTML 48.3 35.4 3.0 8.3 3.5 0 ±3.99 pp 602 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 49 42 6 2 0 0.4 ±0.0 pp 64,704 Election

Ottawa Centre

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 15, 2019 HTML 45.6 22.7 15.7 11.3 2.7 - ±3.71 pp 699 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 42.6 14.4 38.5 2.9 0 1.0 ±0.0 pp 75,886 Election

Scarborough Centre

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 29, 2019 HTML 53.2 22.2 4.7 12.7 3.5 3.7 N/A 627 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 50.5 32.7 11.6 2.1 0 3.1 ±0.0 pp 45,436 Election

Simcoe North

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 20, 2019 HTML 36.1 39.6 5.5 15.3 2.1 1.5 ±3.77 pp 674 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 39.8 43.5 10.5 4.6 0 1.5 ±0.0 pp 57,260 Election

Waterloo

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 20, 2019 HTML 49.5 23.7 8.8 13.5 2.7 - ±4.00 pp 606 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 49.7 32.3 14.9 2.9 0 0.2 ±0.0 pp 59,849 Election

Whitby

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 22, 2019 HTML 39.7 39.1 6.2 8.7 3.9 0 ±3.96 pp 611 IVR
Mainstreet Research July 19, 2019 HTML 39.7 41 5 10 4 0.4 ±4.00 pp 600 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 45.0 42.1 10.3 2.2 0 0.4 ±0.0 pp 64,516 Election

Windsor West

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research August 21, 2019 HTML 37.6 21.3 36.3 2.9 1.9 - ±4.53 pp 468 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 25.2 20.8 51.3 2.3 0 0.3 ±0.0 pp 86,166 Election

Prince Edward Island

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Charlottetown

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 20, 2019 HTML 41.3 28.7 7.4 17.0 1.2 4.3 ±3.91 pp 628 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 56.2 14.8 23.1 5.7 0 0 ±0.0 pp 21,264 Election

Quebec

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Beauce

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research October 9, 2019 HTML 15 31 2 13 4 29 - ±3.9 pp 625 IVR
Mainstreet Research August 5, 2019 HTML 19.3 33.5 1.9 5.8 3.7 33 1.8 ±3.87 pp 640 IVR
Mainstreet Research November 11, 2018 HTML 13.8 37.9 5.5 4.4 2.0 34.7 1.8 ±3.95 pp 616 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 22 59 10 7 2 N/A 0 ±0.0 pp 56,594 Election

Beauport-Limoilou

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 30, 2019 HTML 30 32 6 20 7 3 - ±3.9 pp 623 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 25.4 30.6 25.5 14.8 2.4 N/A 1.3 ±0.0 pp 51,449 Election

Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 12, 2019 HTML 31.1 20.4 4 37.6 3.1 0.9 - ±3.66 pp 716 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 24.3 11.4 22.1 40.0 2.3 N/A - ±0.0 pp 53,163 Election

Beloeil-Chambly

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 29, 2019 HTML 25 9 18 39 6 2 2 ±3.97 609 IVR
Mainstreet Research September 3, 2019 HTML 35 15 8 26 9 - - - pp 825 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 29.3 9.3 31.1 27.7 2.3 N/A 0.4 ±0.0 pp 66,438 Election

Berthier—Maskinongé

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 26, 2019 HTML 16.1 14.6 35.5 27.8 2.3 1.8 - ±4.00 pp 600 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 20.2 10.2 42.1 25.8 1.5 - - ±0.0 pp 55,250 Election

Jonquière

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research October 9, 2019 HTML 14.9 20.3 24.7 34.2 2.5 2.0 - ±3.89 pp 634 IVR
Mainstreet Research September 14, 2019 HTML 27 29 13 19 6 3 - ±3.55 pp 674 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 28.5 16.9 29.2 23.3 1.4 - 0.8 ±0.0 pp 49,002 Election

Laurier—Sainte-Marie

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research October 16, 2019 HTML 35 2 16 40 3 2 - ±3.9 pp 628 IVR
Mainstreet Research September 3, 2019 HTML 41.0 3.7 12.8 26.8 8.4 4.0 - ±3.95 pp 615 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 23 4 38 28 3 - 1 ±0.0 pp 66,438 Election

Longueuil—Saint-Hubert

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 29, 2019 HTML 35.0 9.0 5.0 28.0 17.0 3.0 - ±4 pp 556 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 30.0 8.7 31.2 27.3 2.5 - 0.3 ±0.0 pp 59,138 Election

Louis-Hébert

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 3, 2019 HTML 40 19 5 19 8 4 - 3.3 pp 864 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 34.9 27.2 20.8 14.4 2.5 - 0.2 ±0.0 pp 61,744 Election

Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research October 5, 2019 HTML 23.6 29.3 8 28.9 6 4 - ±4 pp 586 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 28.4 29.0 24.2 16.1 1.7 - 0.6 ±0.0 pp 50,020 Election

Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 13, 2019 HTML 22 48 4 12 7 4 2 ±3.5 pp 625 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 21.5 44.0 22.1 10.7 1.8 - 0 ±0.0 pp 62,059 Election

Québec

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research October 19, 2019 HTML 39 17 8 27 6
Mainstreet Research July 24, 2019 HTML 33.1 25.2 8.1 21.4 7.7 3 1.6 ±3.7 pp 684 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 29 22 27 19 3 0 1 ±0.0 pp 54,687 Election

Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Other Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research October 1, 2019 HTML 22 6.1 35.4 26 6.2 2.6 1.6 ±3.96 pp 613 IVR
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 20.7 4.3 49.2 21.1 3.1 0 1.7 ±0.0 pp 54,349 Election

Notes

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Notes

1 In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the latter is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls—because of their opt-in method of recruiting panellists which results in a non-random sample—cannot have a margin of error.[1] In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.[2]
2 Refers to the total sample size, including undecided and non-voters.
3 "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey.
4 Election Results shown for 2011 are the redistributed results for the 2015 districts. These are fixed until 2023 under the present federal electoral system. About 80% of the 308 districts defined in 2003 changed their borders or are entirely new: 338 districts were defined in 2015.
5 Naming party only.
6 Naming candidates.

References

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  1. ^ "MRIA Responds to "Evaluating the Polls: An Open Letter to Ontario's Journalists"". Marketing Research and Intelligence Association. September 16, 2011. Retrieved October 6, 2012.
  2. ^ American Association for Public Opinion Research (undated), Best Practices for Survey and Public Opinion Research Archived November 30, 2014, at the Wayback Machine, retrieved October 17, 2012
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