Wikipedia

Opinion polling for the 2019 Indian general election

In the run up to the Indian general election, 2019, various organisations carried out opinion polls to gauge voting intention in India. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the Jan 2018 to April 2019. Many organisations have gone on to conduct exit polls and post-poll surveys as well, which too are displayed.

Background

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Opinion polls in India can be controversial. These charges include partisan manipulation.[1]

Opinion poll methodology has heavily improved and agencies like CSDS have got it absolutely correct on 16 occasions, roughly correct on 7 occasions and wrong on 4 occasions.[2]

Post-poll surveys or Exit polls, widely published, are fundamentally different from opinion polls.[3]

Opinion polls

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Number of seats projected in opinion polls per alliance over time.
 
Indian General Election Trends - 2019

Various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions in India. The results of such polls are displayed in this list. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous general election, held in April and May 2014, to the present day. The ECI banned the release of exit polls from 11 April to 19 May, the last phase of the elections.[4] The commission also banned the publication or broadcast in the media of predictions made by astrologers and tarot card readers.[5]

Poll type Date published Polling agency Others Majority Ref
NDA UPA
Opinion polls 8 April 2019 Times Now-VMR 279 149 115 7 [6]
6 April 2019 India TV-CNX 275 126 142 3 [7]
Mar 2019 Times Now-VMR 283 135 125 11 [8]
Mar 2019 News Nation 270 134 139 Hung [9]
Mar 2019 CVoter 264 141 138 Hung [citation needed]
Mar 2019 India TV-CNX 285 126 132 13 [10]
Mar 2019 Zee 24 Taas 264 165 114 Hung [11]
Feb 2019 VDP Associates 242 148 153 Hung [12]
Jan 2019 Times Now-VMR 252 147 144 Hung [13]
Jan 2019 ABP News-CVoter 233 167 143 Hung [14]
Jan 2019 India Today-Karvy 237 166 140 Hung [15]
Jan 2019 VDP Associates 225 167 150 Hung [16]
Dec 2018 India Today 257 146 140 Hung [17]
Dec 2018 ABP News-CVoter 247 171 125 Hung [18]
Dec 2018 India TV-CNX 281 124 138 9 [19]
Nov 2018 ABP News-CVoter 261 119 163 Hung [20]
Oct 2018 ABP News 276 112 155 4 [21]
Aug 2018 India Today-Karvy 281 122 140 9 [22]
May 2018 ABP News-CSDS 274 164 105 2 [23]
Jan 2018 CVoter 335 89 119 63 [citation needed]
Jan 2018 India Today 309 102 132 37 [24]

Vote share

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Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA
Mar 2019 News Nation[9] 34% 28% 38% 6%
Mar 2019 ABP News – C voter[25][26] 41% 31% 28% 10%
Jan 2019 Times Now-VMR[27] 38.7% 32.6% 28.7% 6.1%
Jan 2019 CVoter[citation needed] 37.6% 32.2% 30.2% 5.4%
Jan 2019 India Today -Karvy[15] 35% 33% 32% 2%
April–May 2014 2014 General election results 36.0% 23.0% 42.0% 13.0%

Polling on politicians

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Next Prime Minister

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Narendra Modi vs Rahul Gandhi

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Date published Polling agency Lead
Narendra Modi Rahul Gandhi
Jan 2019 India Today[28] 60% 24% 36%
Jan 2019 India TV - CNX[29] 41% 23% 18%
Nov 2018 ABP News- C Voter[20] 56% 36% 20%
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS[30] 60% 34% 26%
Jan 2018 66% 28% 38%
2017 69% 26% 43%

Narendra Modi vs Priyanka Gandhi

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Date published Polling agency Lead
Yes No
Feb 2019 ABP news - Cvoter[31] 60% 32% 28%

Best Alternative to Narendra Modi amongst the Opposition leaders in 2019 Election

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Date published Polling agency can't say Lead
Rahul Gandhi Mamata Banerjee K. Chandrashekar Rao P. Chidambaram Akhilesh Yadav Arvind Kejriwal Naveen Patnaik Sharad Pawar Mayawati Nitish Kumar Sonia Gandhi Mulayam Singh Yadav
Jan 2019 India Today- Karvy[32] 32% 3%  – 3% 3%  –  –  – 7%  –  –  – 12% 34%
Jul 2018 India Today- Karvy[33] 46% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% 2%  –  –  – 12% 34%
Jan 2018 45% 9% 9% 7% 5% 4% 4% 2% 3%  –  –  – 12% 33%
Jul 2017 21% 4% 6% 4%  – 7% 3%  – 2% 13% 12% 3% 22% 1%
Jan 2017 28% 4% 3% 2% 7% 2% 3% 13% 9% 3% 24% 4%
Aug 2016 23% 4% 4% 2% 12% 3% 3% 13% 9% 3% 21% 2%
Feb 2016 32% 2% 5%  – 10% 1% 3% 8% 15% 2% 15% 17%

Approval ratings

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Economic performance; compared to previous government

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Date published Polling agency Don't know Lead
Better Worse
Jan 2019 India Today -Karvy[34] 49% 28% 23% 21%
Aug 2018 India Today -Karvy[34] 51% 24% 25% 27%
Jan 2018 India Today -Karvy[34] 56% 21% 23% 34%

Issues

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Key Issues

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Date published Polling agency Unemployment Price rise Corruption Farmers' plight
Jan 2019 India today - Karvy[35] 37% 19% 15% 12%

Farm distress; Low crop causing farm distress

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Date published Polling agency Don't know Lead
Yes No
Jan 2019 India today - Karvy[35] 65% 25% 10% 40%

Jobs; Enough created

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Date published Polling agency Don't know Lead
Yes No
Jan 2019 India today - Karvy[35] 12% 76% 12% 64%

Alleged corruption in Rafale deal

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Date published Polling agency Yes No Not aware of deal Can't say
Jan 2019 India today - Karvy[36] 30% 32% 23% 15%

Statewise opinion polling

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Andhra Pradesh (25)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
TDP YSRCP
6 April 2019 IndiaTV-CNX [37] 7 18 11
Date published Polling agency Lead
TDP YSRCP UPA NDA

Arunachal Pradesh (2)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA

Assam (14)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA AIUDF
6 April 2019 IndiaTV-CNX [37] 5 5 2  –
Mar 2019 Times Now-VMR[38] 8 4 2 4
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA AIUDF
Mar 2019 Times Now-VMR[38] 37.0% 32.4% 12.8% 14.3% 4.60%

Bihar (40)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA
6 April 2019 IndiaTV-CNX [37] 29 11 18
Jan 2019 ABP News - Cvoter[14] 35 5 30
Nov 2018 ABP News- C Voter[20] 34 6 28
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS[30] 22 18 4
31 9 22
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA

Chhattisgarh (11)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA
6 April 2019 India TV - CNX[37] 3 8 5
March 2019 News Nation[9] 5 6 1
Jan 2019 India TV - CNX[39] 5 6 1
Oct 2018 Times Now[40] 8 3 5
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS[30] 9 2 7
Oct 2018 Times Now[40] 8 3 5
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA JCC

Goa (2)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA
6 April 2019 India TV - CNX[41] 2  – 2
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA

Gujarat (26)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA
6 April 2019 India TV-CNX[41] 24 2 22
March 2019 News Nation[9] 21 5 16
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA

Haryana (10)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA INLD
6 April 2019 India TV - CNX[41] 9 1 – 8
Jan 2019 ABP News - Cvoter[14] 7 3 – 4
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS[30] 6 3 1 3
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA INLD

Himachal Pradesh (4)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA

Jammu and Kashmir (6)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA
6 April 2019 India TV - CNX[41] 2 4 2
Mar 2019 Times Now[38] 2 4 2
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA JKPDP

Jharkhand (14)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA
9 April 2019 Times Now - VMR[42] 11 3 8
8 April 2019 News Nation[43] 9 5 4
6 April 2019 India TV - CNX[44] 10 4 6
30 March 2019 VDP Associates[45] 7 7  –
5 January 2019 VDP Associates[46] 4 10 6
Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA JMM JVM

Karnataka (28)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA
6 April 2019 India TV - CNX[37] 16 12 4
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA

Kerala (20)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
UDF LDF NDA
15–19 April 2019 Twenty Four News[47] 10-12 8-10 0-2 0-4
14 April 2019 Asianet News - AZ Research[48] 13 6 1 7
8 April 2019 Mathrubhoomi News - Nielson[49] 14 5 1 9
6 April 2019 India TV - CNX[37] 14 5 1 9
March 2019 News Nation[9] 15 4 1 11
March 2019 Times Now-VMR[38] 16 3 1 12
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS[50] 12 6 2 6
Date published Polling agency Lead
UDF LDF NDA
15-19 Apr 2019 Twenty Four News[47] 42% 39% 15% 3%
14 April 2019 Asianet News – AZ Research[48] 41% 34% 19% 7%
8 April 2019 Mathrubhoomi News – Nielson[49] 41% 37% 16% 4%
Mar 2019 Times Now-VMR[38] 45% 29.2% 21.7% 15.8%

Madhya Pradesh (29)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA
6 April 2019 IndiaTV-CNX[37] 21 8 13
Mar 2019 Times Now-VMR[38] 24 5 19
Jan 2019 ABP News -Cvoter[14] 23 6 17
Jan 2019 India TV - CNX[39] 18 11 7
Nov 2018 ABP News - C Voters[20] 22 7 15
Oct 2018 Times Now[40] 21 8 13
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS[30] 23 6 17
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA
Mar 2019 Times Now-VMR[38] 49.20% 39.70% 4.30% 9.5%

Maharashtra (48)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA SHS UPA NCP
6 April 2019 India TV - CNX[51] 34 13 21
Jan 2019 ABP News - Cvoter[14] 28 20 8
Jan 2019 VDP Associates[52] 23 2 23  –
Jan 2019 India TV - CNX[53] 22 8 18 4
Nov 2018 ABP News- C Voter[20] 23 5 14 6 9
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS[30] 16 2 30 14
36 12 24
22 7 11 8 11
Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA SHS UPA NCP

Manipur (2)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
UPA NDA NPF
Mar 2019 Times Now[38] 1 1 0 –

Meghalaya (2)

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Mizoram (1)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
UPA MNF NDA
Mar 2019 Times Now[38] 0 1 1

Nagaland (1)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
UPA NPF NDA
March 2019 Times Now-VMR[38] 0 1 0 1
Date published Polling agency Lead
UPA NPF Others
Mar 2019 Times Now-VMR[38] 30.1% 68.7% 5.9% 38.6%

Odisha (21)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA BJD
6 April 2019 India TV - CNX[37] 6 1 14 8
Jan 2019 ABP News - Cvoter[14] 12  – 9 3
Nov 2018 ABP News- C Voter[20] 13 3 5 6
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS[30] 13 2 6 7
Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA BJD

Punjab (13)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA AAP
6 April 2019 India TV[37] 3 9 1 6
Mar 2019 Zee 24 Taas[11] 1 10 2 6
Mar 2019 India TV[54] 3 9 1 6
Jan 2019 ABP News - Cvoter[14] 1 12 0 11
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS[30] 1 12 0 11
Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA AAP

Rajasthan (25)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA
6 April 2019 India TV - CNX[37] 17 8 9
March 2019 News Nation[9] 17 8 9
Jan 2019 India TV - CNX[39] 15 10 5
Jan 2019 VDP Associates[55] 12 13 1
Nov 2018 ABP News- C Voters[20] 17 8 9
Oct 2018 Times Now[40] 24 1 23
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS[30] 18 7 11
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA

Sikkim (1)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
UPA SDF NDA
8 April 2019 News X[56] 0 1 1
6 April 2019 India TV - CNX[37] 0 1 1
March 2019 Times Now[38] 0 1 1

Tamil Nadu (39)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
UPA NDA AIADMK
8 April 2019 Times Now-VMR[57] 33 6 27
8 April 2019 PuthiyaThalaimurai TV[58] 31-33 6-8 27
6 April 2019 IndiaTV-CNX[37] 21 13 8
5 April 2019 People studies-Loyola College[59] 33 3-5 28
Mar 2019 News Nation[9] 24 15 9
Mar 2019 Times[60] 18 15 6 3
Mar 2019 India TV-CNX[54] 22 15 2 7
  • AIADMK is part of NDA alliance in Tamil Nadu.

Telangana (17)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
TRS UPA BJP AIMIM
6 April 2019 India TV - CNX[37] 12 4 0 1 8
Mar 2019 Times Now-VMR[38] 12 1 2 1 10
Date published Polling agency Lead
UPA TRS AIMIM NDA
Mar 2019 Times Now-VMR[38] 30.30% 41.20% 7.4% 17.60% 10.9%

Tripura (2)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
LDF NDA UPA
Mar 2019 Times Now-VMR[38] 0 2 0 2
March 2019 India TV-CNX[54] 1 1 0 –
Jan 2019 Times Now-VMR[61] 0 2 0 2
Dec 2018 India Today[17] 1 1 0 –

Uttar Pradesh (80)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA MGB
8 April 2019 News Nation[62] 37 2 41 4
6 April 2019 India TV - CNX[37] 41 4 35 6
3 April 2019 ABP News - Nielsen[63] 36 2 42 6
1 April 2019 India TV - CNX[64] 46 4 30 16
19 March 2019 Times Now - VMR[38] 42 2 36 6
12 March 2019 News Nation[9] 35 2 43 8
8 March 2019 India TV - CNX[65] 41 4 35 6
31 January 2019 Times Now - VMR[61] 27 2 51 24
24 January 2019 ABP News - Cvoter[14] 25 4 51 26
23 January 2019 India Today[66] 18 4 58 40
2 November 2018 ABP News - CVoter[20] 31 5 44 13
5 October 2018 ABP News- CSDS[30] 36 2 42 6
Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA MGB

Uttarakhand (5)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA
Jan 2019 India TV - CNX[39] 4 1 3
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA

West Bengal (42)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA AITC LF
6 April 2019 India TV - CNX[41] 12 1 28 1 16
Mar 2019 ABP News- Nielsen[67] 8 3 31  – 23
Jan 2019 Spick Media[68] 8 4 30 0 22
Nov 2018 Spick Media[69] 5 4 32 1 27
Nov 2018 ABP News- C Voter[20] 9 1 32  – 23
Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA AITC LF

Union territories

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Andaman and Nicobar Islands (1)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA

Chandigarh (1)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA AAP
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA AAP

Dadra and Nagar Haveli (1)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA

Daman and Diu (1)

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Lakshadweep (1)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
UPA NDA
Date published Polling agency Lead
UPA NDA NCP

Puducherry (1)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
UPA NDA
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
UPA NDA

NCT of Delhi (7)

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Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA AAP
6 April 2019 India TV - CNX[41] 7 0 0 7
March 2019 News Nation[9] 6 0 1 5
Jan 2019 India TV - CNX[39] 5 1 1 4
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS[30] 4  – 3 1

Exit polls

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Poll type Date published Polling agency Others Majority Ref
NDA UPA
Exit polls India Today-Axis 352 ± 13 93 ± 15 82 ± 13 70 ± 13 [70]
News24-Today's Chanakya 350 ± 14 95 ± 9 97 ± 11 68 ± 14 [71]
News18-IPSOS
CNN-IBN-IPSOS 		336 82 124 64 [72][73]
VDP Associates 333 115 94 61 [74]
Sudarshan News 313 121 109 41 [75]
Times Now-VMR 306 ± 3 132 ± 3 104 ± 3 34 ± 3 [76]
Suvarna News 305 124 102 33 [75]
India TV-CNX 300 ± 10 120 ± 5 122 ± 6 28 ± 10 [77]
India News-Polstrat 287 128 127 15 [78]
CVoter 287 128 127 15 [73]
News Nation 286 122 134 14 [79]
ABP-CSDS 277 130 135 5 [70]
NewsX-Neta 242 164 137 Hung [73]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "In India's National Election, Don't Trust the Polls, Jonah Force Hill, February 24, 2014". TheDiplomat.com. Feb 2014.
  2. ^ Karandikar, Rajeeva (2 April 2014). "Power and Limitations of Opinion Polls: My Experiences". The Hindu Center. Retrieved 20 March 2019.
  3. ^ "What exit polls are really about". @businessline. 12 May 2014. Retrieved 20 March 2019.
  4. ^ "Election Commission bans Exit Polls". United News of India. 10 April 2019. Retrieved 11 April 2019.
  5. ^ "Predicting election results by astrologers, tarot card, others violation of law: EC to media". Business Today. 9 April 2019. Retrieved 11 April 2019.
  6. ^ "Times Now-VMR Opinion Poll For Election 2019, Who Will Win Lok Sabha Polls, Times Now VMR Survey, PM Narendra Modi-led NDA likely to get 279 seats, UPA 149 - India News". timesnownews.com. 8 April 2019.
  7. ^ Taneja, Nidhi (6 April 2019). "Lok Sabha Election 2019: NDA may get thin majority with 275 seats, BJD may retain Odisha, YSR Congress may win Andhra, says India TV-CNX pre-poll survey". indiatvnews.com.
  8. ^ "Times Now-VMR Opinion Poll : Modi govt again with 283 seats, predicts survey". timesnownews.com. 19 March 2019.
  9. ^ a b c d e f g h i "Lok Sabha elections 2019 - Modi govt to retain power at Centre, NDA likely to win 270 seats: Opinion poll - News Nation". newsnation.in. 11 March 2019.
  10. ^ Taneja, Nidhi (10 March 2019). "India TV-CNX Opinion Poll: NDA may get thin majority with 285 seats in Lok Sabha elections". indiatvnews.com.
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  12. ^ VDPAssociates (7 February 2019). "All India Seat Share Forecast if Loksabha election held now(543 Seats) #NationalTrackerPoll NDA-242 UPA-148 Others-153pic.twitter.com/ScDMXHXyCJ".
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  21. ^ "Audio Bulletin: BJP-led NDA will return to power if Lok Sabha elections are held today". abplive.in. 4 October 2018.
  22. ^ Ajit Kumar Jha (18 August 2018). "A clash of coalitions". India Today. New Delhi.
  23. ^ "Advantage BJP in Lok Sabha 2019 polls, Congress might get a boost: ABP-CSDS survey". Moneycontrol. 24 May 2018.
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  31. ^ "60% want to witness a Priyanka vs Modi battle in Varanasi: ABP News-CVoter Survey". ABP News. 8 February 2019.
  32. ^ Ajit Kumar Jha (4 February 2019). "Mood of the Nation: Will 2019 see the making of a grand alliance?". India Today.
  33. ^ "Mood of the Nation: 46 per cent say Rahul Gandhi best alternative to Narendra Modi in 2019". India Today. Ist.
  34. ^ a b c Today, India (28 January 2019). "#Voternomics2019 How has been the Economic performance of NDA govt ? Take a look at the #MoodOfTheNation graph. (@narendrataneja)".
  35. ^ a b c Today, India (28 January 2019). "#Voternomics2019 #MoodOfTheNation Is govt doing enough to create jobs? This is what the #MoodOfTheNation survey shows (@rajeevdubey , @shwwetapunj)".
  36. ^ Today, India (28 January 2019). "#MoodOfTheNation: Do you think there was corruption in Rafale deal?".
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  38. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p "Times Now-VMR Opinion Poll : Modi govt again with 283 seats, predicts survey". www.timesnownews.com. 19 March 2019.
  39. ^ a b c d e Thomas, Soumya (12 January 2019). "IndiaTV-CNX Opinion Poll post-Grand Alliance: NDA may fail to repeat its 2014 win in LS elections, likely to fall short of clear majority". www.indiatvnews.com.
  40. ^ a b c d "EXCL SURVEY: BJP ahead in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh; Congress in Rajasthan". www.timesnownews.com. 9 October 2018.
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  42. ^ "Opinion poll Lok Sabha 2019 latest: NDA seat tally at 279, UPA 149: Times Now-VMR survey - - Times of India". The Times of India. 9 April 2019.
  43. ^ "Opinion Poll - Balakot air strike gives 'Modi wave' major boost, NDA likely to retain power at Centre- News Nation". newsnation.in. 8 April 2019.
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  45. ^ VDPAssociates (30 March 2019). "Jharkhand Seat Share Projection #NationalTrackerPoll BJP-7 Cong-4 JMM-2 JVM(P)-1".
  46. ^ VDPAssociates (5 January 2019). "Most surprising data from Jharkhand.Cong projected to win 5 out of 14 Lok Sabha seats as BJP sinks under local anti-incumbency Cong-5 BJP-4 JMM-4 JVM-1".
  47. ^ a b "24 സർവേ; യുഡിഎഫിന് മുന്നേറ്റം; തൊട്ടുപിന്നിൽ എൽഡിഎഫ്". www.twentyfournews.com. 20 April 2019.
  48. ^ a b asianetnews (14 April 2019). "Asianet news - AZ research Election opinion survey - Part 2" – via YouTube.
  49. ^ a b Mathrubhumi News (8 April 2019). "Mathrubhumi News-Nielsen Survey: Results, Debate Unedited- Mathrubhumi-Nielsen Opinion Poll- Part 1" – via YouTube.
  50. ^ "കേരളത്തില്‍ യുഡിഎഫിന് 16 സീറ്റെന്ന് എബിപി–സീ വോട്ടര്‍ സര്‍വേ". www.manoramanews.com.
  51. ^ Khushbu (6 April 2019). "एक बार फिर बन सकती है मोदी सरकार, NDA को 275 और UPA को 147 सीटें". India TV Hindi.
  52. ^ VDPAssociates (5 January 2019). "Maharashtra Seat Share Forecast(48 Seats) #NationalTrackerPoll BJP-23 Cong-12 NCP-8 Shiv Sena-2 Others-3".
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