Opinion polling for the 2018 Pakistani general election
(Redirected from Opinion polling for the Pakistani general election, 2018)
General elections were held in Pakistan on 25 July 2018. Since the previous general election, several pollsters conducted opinion polls at both the national and provincial levels.
Graphical summaries
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Nationwide voting intention
editVoting intention polls conducted since 2013 for the National Assembly.
| Date | Pollster | Publisher | Sample | PML-N | PTI | PPP | MQM-P | MMA* | ANP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 July 2018 | Election 2018 | ECP | 53,123,733 | 24.35% | 31.82% | 13.01% | 1.38% | 4.81% | 1.53% | 22.98% | 7.47% |
| 12 Jul 2018 | SDPI[1] | Herald | 6,004 | 25% | 29% | 20% | — | 3% | 1% | 20% | 4% |
| 04 Jul 2018 | IPOR[2] | GSP | 3,735 | 32% | 29% | 13% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 20% | 3% |
| 06 Jun 2018 | Gallup Pakistan[3] | Geo/Jang | 3,000 | 26% | 25% | 16% | — | 2% | 1% | 30% | 1% |
| 28 May 2018 | Pulse Consultant[3] | 3,163 | 27% | 30% | 17% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 20% | 3% | |
| May 2018 | Gallup Pakistan[4] | Self | 3,000 | 38% | 25% | 15% | 22% | 13% | |||
| Mar 2018 | Gallup Pakistan[5] | WSJ | 2,000 | 36% | 24% | 17% | 23% | 12% | |||
| 01 Nov 2017 | Gallup Pakistan[6] | Geo/Jang | 3,000 | 34% | 26% | 15% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 19% | 8% |
| 25 Oct 2017 | Pulse Consultant[6] | 3,243 | 36% | 23% | 15% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 22% | 13% | |
| 24 Oct 2017 | IPOR[7][8] | GSP | 4,540 | 38% | 27% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 14% | 11% |
| 24 Apr 2017 | Gallup Pakistan[9] | Self | 1,400 | 36% | 25% | 16% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 16% | 11% |
| 38% | 22% | 17% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 14% | 16% | ||||
| 27 Aug 2015 | SDPI[10][11] | 3,014 | 27% | 33% | 14% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 20% | 6% | |
| 17 Jul 2014 | SDPI[12] | Herald | 1,354 | 17% | 33% | 19% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 18% | 14% |
| 11 May 2013 | Election 2013[13] | ECP | 45,388,404 | 32.77% | 16.92% | 15.23% | 5.41% | 3.22% | 1.00% | 25.57% | 15.85% |
*Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal is an alliance of Islamist political parties, formed in 2002 and dissolved after the 2008 elections. The restoration of this alliance occurred in December 2017. Polls conducted before the restoration show the sum for Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F), the major political party in this alliance.
Province-wide voting intention
editVoting intention polls conducted for each of the provinces. If a party has N/A listed in the poll, this indicates it is in the 'Others' section of the poll. If a certain poll result is bolded, this indicates that the option has achieved over 50% of the vote.
| Date | Pollster | Legislature type | PML (N) | PTI | PPP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 July 2018 | Election 2018 | Provincial | 31.8% | 33.7% | 5.4% | 29.1% | 1.9% |
| 12 Jul 2018 | SDPI[1] | unspecified | 40% | 33% | 7% | 20% | 7% |
| 04 Jul 2018 | IPOR[2] | National | 50% | 31% | 5% | 14% | 19% |
| 06 Jun 2018 | Gallup Pakistan[3] | unspecified | 40% | 26% | 6% | 28% | 14% |
| 02 Jun 2018 | IPOR[14] | unspecified | 51% | 30% | 5% | 14% | 21% |
| 28 May 2018 | Pulse Consultant[3] | unspecified | 43% | 34% | 5% | 18% | 9% |
| 01 Nov 2017 | Gallup Pakistan[6] | unspecified | 50% | 31% | 5% | 14% | 19% |
| 25 Oct 2017 | Pulse Consultant[6] | unspecified | 55% | 20% | 7% | 18% | 35% |
| 24 Oct 2017 | IPOR[8] | National | 58% | 23% | 6% | 13% | 35% |
| 27 Aug 2015 | SDPI[10][11] | National | 38% | 35% | 7% | 20% | 3% |
| 17 Jul 2014 | SDPI[12] | Provincial | 25% | 43% | 11% | 21% | 18% |
| 11 May 2013 | Election 2013[13] | Provincial | 40.8% | 17.8% | 8.8% | 32.6% | 23.0% |
| Date | Pollster | Legislature type | PPP | MQM (P) | GDA* | PTI | PML (N) | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 July 2018 | Election 2018 | Provincial | 38.4% | 7.7% | 14.9% | 14.2% | 2.4% | 22.4% | 23.5% |
| 12 Jul 2018 | SDPI[1] | unspecified | 54% | 2% | 10% | 14% | 4% | 16% | 40% |
| 04 Jul 2018 | IPOR[2] | National | 35% | 7% | 5% | 18% | 10% | 25% | 17% |
| 06 Jun 2018 | Gallup Pakistan[3] | unspecified | 44% | — | 9% | 4% | 43% | 35% | |
| 28 May 2018 | Pulse Consultant[3] | unspecified | 45% | 5% | — | 11% | 4% | 35% | 34% |
| 01 Nov 2017 | Gallup Pakistan[6] | unspecified | 44% | 10% | — | 11% | 35% | 33% | |
| 25 Oct 2017 | Pulse Consultant[6] | unspecified | 46% | 7% | — | 10% | — | 37% | 36% |
| 24 Oct 2017 | IPOR[8] | National | 52% | 11% | 2% | 14% | 12% | 7% | 38% |
| 27 Aug 2015 | SDPI[10][11] | National | 41% | 5% | — | 21% | 13% | 20% | 20% |
| 17 July 2014 | SDPI[12] | Provincial | 50% | 20% | 5% | 25% | 30% | ||
| 11 May 2013 | Election 2013[13] | Provincial | 32.6% | 25.5% | 11.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 18.1% | 7.1% |
*The “Grand Democratic Alliance” is an alliance of political parties which was formed in late 2017. Polls before this show the sum for PML-F, the major party in this alliance before its formation
| Date | Pollster | Legislature type | PTI | PML (N) | MMA | ANP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 July 2018 | Election 2018 | Provincial | 32.3% | 9.9% | 17.1% | 12.2% | 28.5% | 15.2% |
| 12 Jul 2018 | SDPI[1] | unspecified | 43% | 10% | 11% | 6% | 30% | 31% |
| 04 Jul 2018 | IPOR[2] | National | 45% | 12% | 6% | 8% | 29% | 33% |
| 06 Jun 2018 | Gallup Pakistan[3] | unspecified | 57% | 9% | 6% | 6% | 22% | 48% |
| 28 May 2018 | Pulse Consultant[3] | unspecified | 57% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 17% | 47% |
| 01 Nov 2017 | Gallup Pakistan[6] | unspecified | 47% | 10% | 43% | 37% | ||
| 25 Oct 2017 | Pulse Consultant[6] | unspecified | 53% | 13% | 34% | 40% | ||
| 24 Oct 2017 | IPOR[8] | National | 62% | 10% | 1% | 5% | 22% | 52% |
| 27 Aug 2015 | SDPI[10][11] | National | 50% | 15% | 7% | 7% | 21% | 35% |
| 17 Jul 2014 | SDPI[12] | Provincial | 40% | — | 13% | 12% | 35% | 27% |
| 11 May 2013 | Election 2013[13] | Provincial | 19.3% | 15.9% | 13.6% | 10.3% | 40.9% | 3.4% |
| Date | Pollster | Legislature type | MMA | PMAP | PML (N) | BNP | NP | PPP | ANP | PTI | BAP | Other's | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 July 2018 | Election 2018 | Provincial | 14.9% | 1.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 6.0% | 24.6% | 28.8% | 9.7% |
| 12 Jul 2018 | SDPI[1] | unspecified | 8% | 4% | 11% | 6% | — | 15% | — | 11% | 45% | 4% | |
| 04 Jul 2018 | IPOR[2] | National | 12% | 10% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 16% | 4% | 8% | 7% | 35% | 4% |
| 06 Jun 2018 | Gallup Pakistan[3] | unspecified | 23% | 9% | 2% | 14% | 11% | 20% | 4% | 5% | 12% | 3% | |
| 28 May 2018 | Pulse Consultant[3] | unspecified | 11% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 5% | 36% | 3% | 12% | 7% | 14% | 24% |
| 01 Nov 2017 | Gallup Pakistan[6] | unspecified | 22% | 18% | 16% | 13% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 5% | — | 10% | 4% |
| 25 Oct 2017 | Pulse Consultant[6] | unspecified | 5% | 0% | 39% | 8% | 0% | 5% | 7% | 21% | 15% | 18% | |
| 24 Oct 2017 | IPOR[8] | National | — | 6% | 15% | 8% | 1% | 9% | 2% | 33% | 26% | 18% | |
| 27 Aug 2015 | SDPI[10][11] | National | 18% | — | 5% | — | 10% | 12% | 4% | 51% | 6% | ||
| 17 July 2014 | SDPI[12] | Provincial | — | 23% | 22% | — | 14% | 41% | 1% | ||||
| 11 May 2013 | Election 2013[13] | Provincial | 15.8% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | — | 40.9% | 3.0% |
Constituency-wide voting intention
edit- Colour key
† Exit Poll
‡ By election result
| Date | Pollster | Sample | PTI | PML (N) | JI | ANP | PPP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct 2017‡ | By-election 2017 | 131,298 | 34.8% | 18.9% | 5.4% | 18.9% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 15.9% |
| 26 Oct 2017† | CPDI[15] | 1,742 | 43% | 16% | 8% | 20% | 9% | 6% | 23% |
| 19 Oct 2017 | IPOR[16] | 1,313 | 41% | 18% | 4% | 9% | 9% | 19% | 25% |
| 11 May 2013 | Election 2013[13] | 138,555 | 39.8% | 14.7% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 8.7% | 13.5% | 25.1% |
| Date | Pollster | Sample | PTI | Ind (Ch.) | PML (N) | PPP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 July 2018 | Election 2018 | 215,669 | 46.8% | 30.5 | 10.7% | 1.2% | 10.8% | 16.3% |
| 28 Feb 2018 | IPOR[17] | 598 | 37% | 41% | 2% | 20% | 4% | |
| 11 May 2013 | Election 2013[13] | 236,624 | 46.6% | 43.2% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | |
| Date | Pollster | Sample | PML (N) | PTI | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 July 2018 | Election 2018 | 250,254 | 48.9% | 42.3% | 8.8% | 7.6% |
| 17 September 2017‡ | By-election 2017 | 125,129 | 49.4% | 37.6% | 13.0% | 11.8% |
| 17 September 2017† | CPDI[18] | 1,433 | 46% | 40% | 14% | 6% |
| 12 September 2017 | Pulse Consultant[19] | 1,520 | 62% | 23% | 15% | 39% |
| 10 September 2017 | Gallup Pakistan[20] | 1,500 | 53% | 29% | 18% | 24% |
| 06 September 2017 | IPOR[21] | 2,198 | 49% | 34% | 17% | 15% |
| 11 May 2013 | Election 2013[13] | 153,328 | 60.5% | 34.6% | 4.9% | 25.9% |
Polling on Politicians
editThis section is empty. You can help by adding to it. (December 2021) |
Polling on the disqualification of Nawaz Sharif from office
edit| Date | Pollster | Sample | Agree (Right) |
Disagree (Wrong) |
Don’t Know | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 April 2018 | Gallup Pakistan[22] | 1,586 | 53% | 40% | 7% | 13% |
| 01 Nov 2017 | Gallup Pakistan[6] | 3,000 | 55% | 33% | 11% | 22% |
| 54% | 31% | 15% | 23% | |||
| 25 Oct 2017 | Pulse Consultant[6] | 3,243 | 48% | 31% | 21% | 17% |
| 47% | 28% | 25% | 19% | |||
| 24 Oct 2017 | GSP[8] | 4,540 | 65% | 33% | 2% | 32% |
| 69% | 28% | 3% | 39% | |||
| 28 July 2017 | Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is disqualified from office by the Supreme Court | |||||
| Date | Pollster | Nawaz Sharif | Imran Khan | Don’t Know | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2018 | Gallup Pakistan[4] | 50% | 45% | 5% | 5% |
| March 2018 | Gallup Pakistan[5] | 49% | 46% | 5% | 3% |
| (undefined) 2017 | Gallup Pakistan[5] | 51% | 39% | 10% | 12% |
| (undefined) 2016 | Gallup Pakistan[5] | 57% | 37% | 6% | 20% |
| (undefined) 2015 | Gallup Pakistan[5] | 59% | 35% | 6% | 24% |
References
edit- ^ a b c d e "Survey shows elections too close to call".
- ^ a b c d e "National Survey of Current Political Survey in Pakistan" (PDF).
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j "Elections Exclusive: 3 poll results in! Who will you vote for Pakistan?". geo.tv.
- ^ a b "Dr. Ijaz Shafi Gilani, Chairman Gallup Pakistan talks about the changing trends in public opinion and motivations of the voters with respect to the upcoming Election on Jirga with SaleemKhanSafi on Geo News". Gallup Pakistan. 21 May 2018.
- ^ a b c d e Shah, Saeed (25 April 2018). "Trial of Ex-Leader Rattles Pakistan's Democracy". [www.wsj.com].
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Elahi, Manzar; Haider, Sajjad (24 November 2017). "PML-N remains most popular party, Nawaz most favourite leader: survey". Geo TV.
- ^ "Shehbaz favoured by Pakistan's majority to become premier: GSP survey". Dunya News. 28 October 2017.
- ^ a b c d e f "National Public Opinion Survey". Global Strategic Partners. 24 October 2017.
- ^ "Gallup Public Pulse on Panama Leaks Verdict – 24 Hours after the Announcement". Gallup Pakistan. 24 April 2017.
- ^ a b c d e Suleri, Abid Q (2015). "Political Barometer, 2015" (PDF). Sustainable Development Policy Institute.
- ^ a b c d e Sheikh, Ismail (28 October 2015). "PTI more popular than PML-N: survey". The Express Tribune. Retrieved 29 March 2018.
- ^ a b c d e "State of the nation: public opinion of the government's first year in power". Dawn. Retrieved 29 March 2018.
- ^ a b c d e f g h "Party wise total vote bank" (PDF). Government of Pakistan. 27 May 2013. Archived from the original (PDF) on 8 October 2017.
- ^ "A Quantative Study Report on the Political Continuum of Punjab" (PDF). ipor.com.pk.[dead link]
- ^ "Exit Polls in NA-4 (Peshawar – IV) By-Elections Give Clear Lead to PTI". Centre for Peace and Development Initiatives. 26 October 2017.
- ^ "NA-04 Peshawar" (PDF). Institute for Public Opinion Research. 25 October 2017.
- ^ "A Quantitative Study Report on the Political Continuum of NA-53" (PDF). Institute for Public Opinion Research. 1 March 2018.
- ^ "Exit Polls in NA 120 Bye-Elections Show Slender Lead by PMLN NA-120 (Lahore III)". Centre for Peace and Development Initiatives. 17 September 2017.
- ^ "Survey shows easy sailing for PML-N in NA-120 by-polls". The News PK. 12 September 2017.
- ^ "NA-120 Pre-election Survey by Gallup Pakistan" (PDF). Gallup Pakistan. 17 September 2017.
- ^ "71pc won't change their voting behaviour in NA-120: survey". The News PK. 6 September 2017.
- ^ "Public Opinion on Supreme Court Ruling in Elections Reforms Case" (PDF). 5 April 2018.