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Opinion polling on the United Kingdom's membership of the European Union (2016–2020)

(Redirected from Opinion polling on the United Kingdom's membership of the European Union (2016–present))

This article is about polling from the 2016 referendum until 2020. For polling done before the referendum, see Opinion polling for the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum. For polling done since 2020, see Opinion polling on the United Kingdom rejoining the European Union (2020–present).

Following the referendum in the United Kingdom on its membership of the European Union on 23 June 2016, polling companies continued to use standard questions in order to gauge public opinion on the country's relationship with the EU. Opinion polling overall showed an initial fall in support for Brexit from the referendum to late 2016, when responses were split evenly between support and opposition. Support rose again to a plurality, which held until the 2017 general election. Since then, opinion polls tended to show a plurality of support for remaining in the EU or for the view that Brexit was a mistake, with the estimated margin increasing until a small decrease in 2019 (to 53% Remain : 47% Leave, as of October 2019).[1] This seems to be largely due to a preference for remaining in the EU among those who did not vote in 2016's referendum (an estimated 2.5 million of whom, as of October 2019, were too young to vote at the time).[2][3] Other reasons suggested include slightly more Leave voters than Remain voters (14% and 12% of each, respectively, as of October 2019)[4] changing how they would vote (particularly in Labour areas) and the deaths of older voters,[1] most of whom voted to leave the EU.

Right/wrong

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Opinion polling on whether the UK was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU
  Right
  Wrong
  Neither

Following the EU referendum, there have been numerous opinion polls on the question of whether the UK was 'right' or 'wrong' to vote to leave the EU. The results of these polls are shown in the table below.

Date(s) conducted Right Wrong Undecided Lead Sample Conducted by Polling type Notes
4–5 Aug 2020 39% 49% 12% 10% 1,606 YouGov Online
30–31 Jul 2020 41% 47% 13% 6% 1,623 YouGov Online
22–23 Jul 2020 42% 47% 11% 5% 1,648 YouGov Online
11–12 Jun 2020 40% 47% 13% 7% 1,693 YouGov Online
29–30 May 2020 42% 45% 13% 3% 1,650 YouGov Online
18–19 May 2020 43% 45% 13% 2% 1,718 YouGov Online
16–17 Apr 2020 43% 44% 13% 1% 2,015 YouGov Online
24–26 Mar 2020 48% 40% 12% 8% 1,010 Number Cruncher Politics Online
9–10 Feb 2020 43% 44% 13% 1% 1,694 YouGov Online
31 Jan – 2 Feb 2020 43% 46% 12% 3% 1,575 YouGov Online
31 Jan 2020 The UK leaves the EU and begins the Brexit transition period.
30–31 Jan 2020 43% 46% 11% 3% 1,015 Survation Online
24–26 Jan 2020 40% 47% 13% 7% 1,628 YouGov Online
12 Dec 2019 2019 United Kingdom general election
8–10 Dec 2019 44% 46% 10% 2% 1,009 Number Cruncher Politics Online
11–12 Nov 2019 41% 47% 11% 6% 1,619 YouGov Online
5–6 Nov 2019 40% 49% 11% 9% 1,667 YouGov Online
22–23 Oct 2019 41% 47% 12% 6% 1,640 YouGov Online
20–21 Oct 2019 41% 47% 11% 6% 1,689 YouGov Online
17–18 Oct 2019 42% 46% 12% 4% 1,609 YouGov Online
17 Oct 2019 EU and UK negotiators agree a new withdrawal agreement.[5]
14–15 Oct 2019 42% 47% 11% 5% 1,625 YouGov Online
8–9 Oct 2019 42% 48% 10% 6% 1,616 YouGov Online
30 Sep – 1 Oct 2019 40% 49% 11% 9% 1,623 YouGov Online
2–3 Sep 2019 41% 48% 11% 7% 1,639 YouGov Online
28–29 Aug 2019 40% 50% 10% 10% 1,867 YouGov Online
27–28 Aug 2019 41% 47% 13% 6% 2,006 YouGov Online
22–23 Aug 2019 41% 48% 11% 7% 2,019 YouGov Online
13–14 Aug 2019 42% 46% 11% 4% 1,625 YouGov Online
5–6 Aug 2019 41% 47% 13% 6% 1,628 YouGov Online
29–30 Jul 2019 41% 49% 11% 8% 2,066 YouGov Online
24 July 2019 Boris Johnson replaces Theresa May as Prime Minister
16–17 Jul 2019 40% 47% 12% 7% 1,749 YouGov Online
2–3 Jul 2019 41% 48% 11% 7% 1,605 YouGov Online
9–10 Jun 2019 41% 47% 12% 6% 1,702 YouGov Online
5–6 Jun 2019 42% 47% 11% 5% 1,670 YouGov Online
28–29 May 2019 41% 46% 13% 5% 1,763 YouGov Online
23 May 2019 2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom
10–11 Apr 2019 41% 48% 11% 7% 1,843 YouGov Online
2–3 Apr 2019 42% 47% 11% 5% 1,771 YouGov Online
31 Mar – 1 Apr 2019 42% 47% 11% 5% 2,098 YouGov Online
29 Mar 2019 The House of Commons votes to reject the Government's proposed withdrawal agreement for the third time.
24–25 Mar 2019 41% 48% 12% 7% 2,110 YouGov Online
14–15 Mar 2019 41% 49% 10% 8% 1,823 YouGov Online
12 Mar 2019 The House of Commons votes to reject the Government's proposed withdrawal agreement for the second time.
7–8 Mar 2019 40% 48% 12% 8% 1,787 YouGov Online
6–7 Mar 2019 40% 49% 11% 9% 1,800 YouGov Online
22–23 Feb 2019 40% 48% 13% 8% 1,672 YouGov Online
3–4 Feb 2019 39% 48% 13% 9% 1,851 YouGov Online
30–31 Jan 2019 41% 48% 11% 7% 1,650 YouGov Online
18 Jan 2019 41% 43% 16% 2% 1,021 Sky Data Online
16 Jan 2019 40% 50% 10% 10% 1,070 YouGov Online
15 Jan 2019 The House of Commons votes to reject the Government's proposed withdrawal agreement for the first time.[6]
13–14 Jan 2019 40% 48% 12% 8% 1,701 YouGov Online
7–8 Jan 2019 41% 47% 12% 6% 1,754 YouGov Online
6–7 Jan 2019 39% 48% 12% 9% 1,656 YouGov Online
21 Dec 2018 – 4 Jan 2019 40% 48% 12% 8% 25,537 YouGov Online
18–19 Dec 2018 40% 47% 13% 7% 1,675 YouGov Online
12–14 Dec 2018 41% 47% 12% 6% 5,043 YouGov Online
3–4 Dec 2018 38% 49% 13% 11% 1,624 YouGov Online
9–30 Nov 2018 Ministers including Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab and Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey resign in protest to the government's proposed withdrawal agreement (or to plans preceding it).[7]
26–27 Nov 2018 42% 48% 11% 6% 1,737 YouGov Online
19–20 Nov 2018 41% 47% 12% 6% 1,647 YouGov Online
15 Nov 2018 40% 47% 12% 7% 1,311 YouGov Online
14 Nov 2018 The UK Cabinet approves a new draft withdrawal agreement.[8]
4–5 Nov 2018 41% 45% 14% 4% 1,637 YouGov Online
22–23 Oct 2018 41% 47% 12% 6% 1,802 YouGov Online
18–19 Oct 2018 41% 47% 12% 6% 2,158 YouGov Online
14–15 Oct 2018 42% 45% 13% 3% 1,649 YouGov Online
10–11 Oct 2018 41% 46% 13% 5% 1,800 YouGov Online
8–9 Oct 2018 40% 47% 13% 7% 1,647 YouGov Online
3–4 Oct 2018 42% 46% 12% 4% 1,746 YouGov Online
30 Sep-1 Oct 2018 42% 47% 11% 5% 1,607 YouGov Online
21–22 Sep 2018 42% 46% 12% 4% 1,643 YouGov Online
18–19 Sep 2018 40% 47% 12% 7% 2,509 YouGov Online
12–13 Sep 2018 42% 46% 12% 4% 1,620 YouGov Online
4–5 Sep 2018 43% 46% 11% 3% 1,628 YouGov Online
3–4 Sep 2018 42% 48% 11% 6% 1,883 YouGov Online
28–29 Aug 2018 42% 47% 11% 5% 1,664 YouGov Online
20–21 Aug 2018 41% 47% 12% 6% 1,697 YouGov Online
13–14 Aug 2018 43% 45% 12% 2% 1,660 YouGov Online
9–13 Aug 2018 43% 47% 10% 4% 1,036 Number Cruncher Politics Online
8–9 Aug 2018 42% 45% 13% 3% 1,675 YouGov Online
22–23 Jul 2018 42% 46% 12% 4% 1,650 YouGov Online
16–17 Jul 2018 42% 47% 12% 5% 1,657 YouGov Online
10–11 Jul 2018 41% 46% 12% 5% 1,732 YouGov Online
8–9 Jul 2018 Brexit Secretary David Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson resign.[9]
8–9 Jul 2018 42% 46% 12% 4% 1,669 YouGov Online
6 Jul 2018 The UK Cabinet agrees the Chequers statement, setting out a proposal on the future UK–EU relationship.[10]
3–4 Jul 2018 41% 46% 13% 5% 1,641 YouGov Online
25–26 Jun 2018 43% 46% 11% 3% 1,645 YouGov Online
19–20 Jun 2018 44% 45% 11% 1% 1,663 YouGov Online
18–19 Jun 2018 43% 44% 13% 1% 1,606 YouGov Online
11–12 Jun 2018 43% 46% 12% 3% 1,638 YouGov Online
4–5 Jun 2018 44% 44% 13% 0% 1,619 YouGov Online
28–29 May 2018 40% 47% 13% 7% 1,670 YouGov Online
20–21 May 2018 43% 44% 13% 1% 1,660 YouGov Online
13–14 May 2018 44% 45% 12% 1% 1,634 YouGov Online
8–9 May 2018 43% 45% 12% 2% 1,648 YouGov Online
30 Apr-1 May 2018 42% 47% 11% 5% 1,585 YouGov Online
24–25 Apr 2018 42% 45% 13% 3% 1,668 YouGov Online
16–17 Apr 2018 42% 45% 13% 3% 1,631 YouGov Online
9–10 Apr 2018 42% 46% 12% 4% 1,639 YouGov Online
26–27 Mar 2018 42% 45% 13% 3% 1,659 YouGov Online
16–23 Mar 2018 44% 48% 7% 4% 1,616 Sky Data Online
5–6 Mar 2018 43% 45% 12% 2% 1,641 YouGov Online
2 Mar 2018 Theresa May makes Mansion House speech, outlining the UK Government's policy on the future UK–EU relationship.[11]
26–27 Feb 2018 44% 45% 11% 1% 1,622 YouGov Online
19–20 Feb 2018 42% 45% 12% 3% 1,650 YouGov Online
12–13 Feb 2018 42% 46% 12% 4% 1,639 YouGov Online
5–6 Feb 2018 43% 44% 13% 1% 2,000 YouGov Online
28–29 Jan 2018 40% 46% 14% 6% 1,669 YouGov Online
16–17 Jan 2018 45% 44% 12% 1% 1,672 YouGov Online
7–8 Jan 2018 42% 46% 12% 4% 1,663 YouGov Online
19–20 Dec 2017 42% 45% 12% 3% 1,610 YouGov Online
15 Dec 2017 The European Council decides to proceed to the second phase of the Brexit negotiations.[12]
10–11 Dec 2017 44% 45% 11% 1% 1,680 YouGov Online
4–5 Dec 2017 42% 45% 13% 3% 1,638 YouGov Online
26–28 Nov 2017 42% 44% 14% 2% 3,282 YouGov Online
7–8 Nov 2017 42% 46% 12% 4% 2,012 YouGov Online
23–24 Oct 2017 43% 45% 12% 2% 1,637 YouGov Online
19–20 Oct 2017 42% 44% 14% 2% 1,603 YouGov Online
18–19 Oct 2017 42% 45% 14% 3% 1,648 YouGov Online
10–11 Oct 2017 42% 47% 11% 5% 1,680 YouGov Online
22–24 Sep 2017 44% 45% 11% 1% 1,716 YouGov Online
22 Sep 2017 Theresa May makes Florence speech, in an attempt to 'unblock' the Brexit negotiations.[13]
30–31 Aug 2017 44% 44% 12% 0% 1,658 YouGov Online
21–22 Aug 2017 43% 45% 11% 2% 1,664 YouGov Online
31 Jul-1 Aug 2017 45% 45% 10% 0% 1,665 YouGov Online
18–19 Jul 2017 43% 43% 14% 0% 1,593 YouGov Online
10–11 Jul 2017 45% 43% 12% 2% 1,700 YouGov Online
21–22 Jun 2017 44% 45% 11% 1% 1,670 YouGov Online
19 Jun 2017 Brexit negotiations begin.[14]
12–13 Jun 2017 44% 45% 11% 1% 1,651 YouGov Online
8 Jun 2017 2017 United Kingdom general election
5–7 Jun 2017 45% 45% 10% 0% 2,130 YouGov Online
30–31 May 2017 44% 45% 11% 1% 1,875 YouGov Online
24–25 May 2017 46% 43% 11% 3% 2,052 YouGov Online
16–17 May 2017 46% 43% 11% 3% 1,861 YouGov Online
3–14 May 2017 45% 41% 14% 4% 1,952 GfK Online
9–10 May 2017 44% 45% 11% 1% 1,651 YouGov Online
2–3 May 2017 46% 43% 11% 3% 2,066 YouGov Online
25–26 Apr 2017 43% 45% 12% 2% 1,590 YouGov Online
20–21 Apr 2017 44% 44% 12% 0% 1,590 YouGov Online
18–19 Apr 2017 46% 43% 11% 3% 1,727 YouGov Online
12–13 Apr 2017 45% 43% 12% 2% 2,069 YouGov Online
5–6 Apr 2017 46% 42% 11% 4% 1,651 YouGov Online
29 Mar 2017 The United Kingdom invokes Article 50.[15]
26–27 Mar 2017 44% 43% 13% 1% 1,957 YouGov Online
20–21 Mar 2017 44% 44% 12% 0% 1,627 YouGov Online
1–15 Mar 2017 46% 41% 13% 5% 1,938 GfK Online
13–14 Mar 2017 44% 42% 15% 2% 1,631 YouGov Online
10–14 Mar 2017 49% 41% 10% 8% 2,003 Opinium Online
27–28 Feb 2017 45% 44% 11% 1% 1,666 YouGov Online
21–22 Feb 2017 45% 45% 10% 0% 2,060 YouGov Online
12–13 Feb 2017 46% 42% 12% 4% 2,052 YouGov Online
30–31 Jan 2017 45% 42% 12% 3% 1,705 YouGov Online
17–18 Jan 2017 46% 42% 12% 4% 1,654 YouGov Online
17 Jan 2017 Theresa May makes Lancaster House speech, setting out the UK Government's negotiating priorities.[16]
9–12 Jan 2017 52% 39% 9% 13% 2,005 Opinium Online
9–10 Jan 2017 46% 42% 12% 4% 1,660 YouGov Online
3–4 Jan 2017 45% 44% 11% 1% 1,740 YouGov Online
18–19 Dec 2016 44% 44% 12% 0% 1,595 YouGov Online
4–5 Dec 2016 44% 42% 14% 2% 1,667 YouGov Online
28–29 Nov 2016 44% 45% 11% 1% 1,624 YouGov Online
14–15 Nov 2016 46% 43% 11% 3% 1,717 YouGov Online
19–20 Oct 2016 45% 44% 11% 1% 1,608 YouGov Online
11–12 Oct 2016 45% 44% 11% 1% 1,669 YouGov Online
2 Oct 2016 Theresa May makes Conservative Party Conference speech, announcing her intention to invoke Article 50 by 31 March 2017.[17]
13–14 Sep 2016 46% 44% 10% 2% 1,732 YouGov Online
30–31 Aug 2016 47% 44% 9% 3% 1,687 YouGov Online
22–23 Aug 2016 45% 43% 12% 2% 1,660 YouGov Online
16–17 Aug 2016 46% 43% 11% 3% 1,677 YouGov Online
8–9 Aug 2016 45% 44% 12% 1% 1,692 YouGov Online
1–2 Aug 2016 46% 42% 12% 4% 1,722 YouGov Online
13 Jul 2016 Theresa May becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.[18]

Selective polling

edit
Date(s) conducted Right Wrong Undecided Lead Sample Conducted by Polling type Notes
26 Feb – 1 Mar 2019 22% 70% 8% 48% 5,004 YouGov Online Labour 2017 voters living in Northern England and the Midlands
5–8 Jul 2018 76% 21% 2% 55% 966 YouGov Online Conservative Party members

Remain/leave

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With "Neither" responses
 
Normalised
Opinion polling (since the 2016 referendum) on whether the UK should leave or remain in the EU
  Leave
  Remain

There have also been polls to gauge support for remaining in or leaving the EU. The following polls, unless the notes state otherwise, asked how respondents would vote in a second referendum.

Date(s) conducted Remain Leave Neither Lead Sample Conducted by Polling type Notes
18–21 Oct 2019 55% 45% — 10% 2,017 Deltapoll Online "Neither" removed
17 Oct 2019 EU and UK negotiators agree a new withdrawal agreement.[19]
2–14 Oct 2019 32% 54% 14% 22% 26,000 ComRes [note 1][note 2]
9–11 Oct 2019 51% 45% 3% 6% 1,622 Panelbase Online Likely voters
25 Sep 2019 51% 45% 4% 6% 821 Survation Online Likely voters
5–9 Sep 2019 37% 34% 29% 3% 1,144 Kantar Online
5–7 Sep 2019 46% 40% 14% 6% 2,049 Deltapoll Online
5–6 Sep 2019 52% 45% 3% 7% 864 Panelbase Online Likely voters
5–6 Sep 2019 50% 44% 6% 6% 809 Survation Online Likely voters
3–4 Sep 2019 46% 43% 12% 3% 1,533 YouGov Online
29–31 Aug 2019 46% 41% 13% 5% 2,028 Deltapoll Online
29–30 Aug 2019 51% 46% 3% 6% 861 Survation Online Likely voters
15–19 Aug 2019 36% 35% 29% 1% 1,133 Kantar Online
14–15 Aug 2019 45% 40% 15% 5% 1,696 YouGov Online
6–11 Aug 2019 52% 43% 5% 9% 1,658 Survation Online Likely voters
28–29 Jul 2019 46% 41% 13% 5% 1,652 YouGov Online
25–27 Jul 2019 45% 41% 13% 4% 2,001 Deltapoll Online
24 Jul 2019 Boris Johnson replaces Theresa May as Prime Minister
19–20 Jun 2019 51% 44% 5% 7% 1,658 Survation Online Likely voters
4–7 Jun 2019 48% 44% 8% 4% 1,345 BMG Research Online [note 1]
23 May 2019 2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom
22 May 2019 47% 48% 5% 1% 1,596 Survation Online Likely voters
14–21 May 2019 52% 45% 3% 7% 1,619 Panelbase Online Likely voters
17 May 2019 49% 47% 4% 2% 797 Survation Online Likely voters
12–13 May 2019 44% 42% 14% 2% 2,131 YouGov Online
9–13 May 2019 42% 33% 24% 9% 1,152 Kantar Online
7–10 May 2019 52% 41% 7% 11% 1,393 BMG Research Online [note 1]
30 Apr – 1 May 2019 44% 40% 15% 4% 1,867 YouGov Online
18–24 Apr 2019 51% 45% 4% 5% 1,620 Panelbase Online Likely voters
16 Apr 2019 52% 38% 10% 14% 1,061 ComRes Online
4–8 Apr 2019 41% 35% 24% 5% 1,172 Kantar Online
2–5 Apr 2019 51% 42% 8% 9% 1,338 BMG Research Online [note 1]
28–30 Mar 2019 54% 46% — 8% 1,010 Deltapoll Online "Neither" removed
29 Mar 2019 The House of Commons votes to reject the Government's proposed withdrawal agreement for the third time.
19 Mar 2019 46% 41% 14% 5% 2,084 YouGov Online
15–17 Mar 2019 45% 39% 16% 6% 2,033 ComRes Online
15 Mar 2019 51% 45% 5% 6% 831 Survation Online Likely voters
12 Mar 2019 The House of Commons votes to reject the Government's proposed withdrawal agreement for the second time.
7–11 Mar 2019 40% 32% 28% 7% 1,152 Kantar Online
4–8 Mar 2019 49% 42% 9% 7% 1,330 BMG Research Online [note 1]
4–5 Mar 2019 46% 39% 15% 8% 2,042 ComRes Online
21–23 Feb 2019 45% 41% 13% 4% 1,027 Deltapoll Online
18 Feb 2019 47% 44% 8% 3% 849 Survation Online Likely voters
17–18 Feb 2019 48% 38% 14% 10% 1,832 YouGov Online
8–11 Feb 2019 43% 43% 13% 0% 2,004 Deltapoll Online
7–11 Feb 2019 43% 35% 22% 8% 1,145 Kantar Online
4–8 Feb 2019 50% 40% 9% 10% 1,363 BMG Research Online [note 1]
30 Jan 2019 52% 43% 6% 9% 847 Survation Online Likely voters
22–23 Jan 2019 45% 38% 16% 7% 1,699 YouGov Online
16–17 Jan 2019 48% 42% 11% 6% 2,083 ORB Online
16–17 Jan 2019 47% 39% 14% 7% 2,031 ComRes Online
16 Jan 2019 48% 38% 14% 10% 1,070 YouGov Online
15 Jan 2019 The House of Commons votes to reject the Government's proposed withdrawal agreement for the first time.[20]
14–15 Jan 2019 44% 40% 16% 4% 2,010 ComRes Online
10–14 Jan 2019 44% 35% 21% 8% 1,106 Kantar Online
10–11 Jan 2019 47% 45% 8% 2% 808 Survation Online Likely voters
8-11 Jan 2019 49% 41% 10% 8% 1,344 BMG Research Online [note 1]
21 Dec 2018 – 4 Jan 2019 46% 39% 15% 7% 25,537 YouGov Online
16–17 Dec 2018 45% 41% 14% 4% 1,660 YouGov Online [note 1]
14–15 Dec 2018 46% 37% 17% 9% 1,660 YouGov Online
13–14 Dec 2018 44% 43% 12% 1% 2,022 Deltapoll Online
4–7 Dec 2018 52% 40% 7% 12% 1,379 BMG Research Online [note 1]
5–6 Dec 2018 36% 33% 31% 3% 1,178 Kantar Online
30 Nov – 3 Dec 2018 45% 45% 10% 0% 2,007 Opinium
9–30 Nov 2018 Ministers including Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab and Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey resign in protest to the government's proposed withdrawal agreement (or to plans preceding it).[21]
28–29 Nov 2018 47% 39% 14% 8% 1,655 YouGov Online
22–23 Nov 2018 46% 42% 12% 4% 1,691 YouGov Online
15 Nov 2018 50% 45% 5% 5% 874 Survation Online Likely voters
14–15 Nov 2018 46% 40% 14% 6% 1,153 YouGov Online
14–15 Nov 2018 45% 43% 12% 2% 2,000 ComRes Online Not weighted by 2016 vote
14 Nov 2018 The UK Cabinet approves a new draft withdrawal agreement.[22]
8-12 Nov 2018 39% 34% 27% 5% 1,147 Kantar Online
7–9 Nov 2018 45% 41% 13% 4% 3,344 YouGov Online
6–9 Nov 2018 49% 42% 9% 7% 1,339 BMG Research Online [note 1]
2–7 Nov 2018 51% 46% 4% 5% 1,674 Panelbase Online Likely voters
24 Oct – 6 Nov 2018 47% 40% 13% 7% 8,154 Populus Online
20 Oct – 2 Nov 2018 50% 44% 7% 6% 16,337 Survation Online Likely voters
24–26 Oct 2018 40% 40% 20% 0% 1,017 Deltapoll Online
22–23 Oct 2018 46% 41% 13% 5% 1,802 YouGov Online
11–15 Oct 2018 38% 35% 28% 3% 1,128 Kantar Online
3–5 Oct 2018 48% 41% 11% 7% 1,346 BMG Research Online [note 1]
28–29 Sep 2018 47% 43% 10% 4% 1,075 BMG Research Online [note 1]
8–26 Sep 2018 51% 34% 15% 17% 941 Kantar Public Face to face Respondents aged 15+; unweighted
21–22 Sep 2018 48% 42% 10% 6% 901 BMG Research Online [note 1]
20–21 Sep 2018 43% 43% 13% 0% 1,762 YouGov Online [note 1]
6–10 Sep 2018 42% 35% 23% 7% 1,119 Kantar Online
7–9 Sep 2018 46% 42% 11% 4% 2,051 ICM Online
7 Sep 2018 47% 46% 8% 1% 854 Survation Online Likely voters
46% 44% 10% 2% 975 Possible voters
4–7 Sep 2018 47% 43% 10% 4% 1,372 BMG Research Online [note 1]
28 Aug – 4 Sep 2018 46% 42% 12% 4% 10,215 YouGov Online
31 Jul – 4 Sep 2018 46% 41% 13% 5% 25,641 YouGov Online
31 Aug – 1 Sep 2018 47% 47% 6% 0% 864 Survation Online Likely voters
21–22 Aug 2018 46% 42% 12% 4% 1,667 YouGov Online
14–20 Aug 2018 46% 41% 13% 5% 10,299 YouGov Online
31 Jul – 20 Aug 2018 46% 40% 13% 6% 18,772 YouGov Online
9–13 Aug 2018 40% 35% 25% 5% 1,119 Kantar Online
6–10 Aug 2018 50% 43% 7% 7% 1,316 BMG Research Online With squeeze responses. [note 1]
49% 41% 10% 8% Without squeeze responses. [note 1]
31 Jul – 7 Aug 2018 46% 40% 14% 6% 10,121 YouGov Online
26–31 Jul 2018 46% 41% 13% 5% 4,957 YouGov Online
25–26 Jul 2018 45% 42% 13% 3% 1,631 YouGov Online
23–24 Jul 2018 47% 41% 12% 6% 1,627 YouGov Online
47% 44% 9% 3% YouGov [note 1]
19–20 Jul 2018 44% 40% 16% 4% 1,668 YouGov Online
12–14 Jul 2018 45% 45% 11% 0% 1,484 Deltapoll Online
8–9 Jul 2018 Brexit Secretary David Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson resign.[23]
5–9 Jul 2018 40% 32% 28% 8% 1,086 Kantar Online
7 Jul 2018 49% 45% 5% 4% 855 Survation Online Likely voters
6 Jul 2018 The UK Cabinet agrees the Chequers statement, setting out a proposal on the future UK–EU relationship.[24]
28 Jun – 6 Jul 2018 47% 41% 13% 6% 10,383 YouGov Online
3–5 Jul 2018 51% 45% 5% 6% 1,359 BMG Research Online With squeeze responses. [note 1]
49% 43% 8% 6% Without squeeze responses. [note 1]
26–27 Jun 2018 44% 44% 12% 0% 1,626 YouGov Online [note 1]
19–20 Jun 2018 50% 44% 6% 6% 866 Survation Online Likely voters
10–11 Jun 2018 45% 40% 15% 5% 1,654 YouGov Online
5–8 Jun 2018 48% 45% 6% 3% 1,350 BMG Research Online With squeeze responses. [note 1]
46% 43% 10% 3% Without squeeze responses. [note 1]
31 May – 4 Jun 2018 48% 47% 6% 1% 1,724 Survation Online Likely voters
9–16 May 2018 47% 42% 11% 5% 2,006 Deltapoll Online
8–10 May 2018 47% 47% 6% 0% 1,585 Survation Online
1–4 May 2018 49% 44% 7% 5% 1,361 BMG Research Online With squeeze responses. [note 1]
47% 43% 11% 4% Without squeeze responses. [note 1]
25–30 Apr 2018 45% 42% 13% 3% 1,637 YouGov Online
14 Apr 2018 47% 46% 7% 1% 1,746 Survation Online Likely voters
10–13 Apr 2018 51% 42% 6% 9% 1,432 BMG Research Online With squeeze responses. [note 1]
49% 40% 10% 9% Without squeeze responses. [note 1]
6–8 Apr 2018 45% 44% 11% 1% 2,012 ICM Online
5–6 Apr 2018 44% 41% 15% 3% 1,636 YouGov Online
23–26 Mar 2018 45% 44% 11% 1% 1,658 YouGov Online [note 1]
13-16 Mar 2018 50% 44% 6% 6% 1,658 BMG Research Online With squeeze responses. [note 1]
49% 42% 9% 7% Without squeeze responses. [note 1]
7–8 Mar 2018 44% 49% 7% 5% 2,092 ORB Online Not weighted by 2016 vote
2 Mar 2018 43% 46% 12% 3% 1,096 ComRes Online Not weighted by 2016 vote
2 Mar 2018 Theresa May makes Mansion House speech, outlining the UK Government's policy on the future UK–EU relationship.[25]
27–28 Feb 2018 44% 41% 14% 3% 1,646 YouGov Online
14–16 Feb 2018 46% 42% 13% 4% 1,482 Sky Data Online
6–9 Feb 2018 47% 44% 9% 3% 1,325 BMG Research Online [note 1]
26–29 Jan 2018 49% 46% 6% 3% 912 Survation Online Likely voters
18–22 Jan 2018 46% 42% 12% 4% 1,633 YouGov Online
16–19 Jan 2018 49% 41% 10% 8% 1,096 Sky Data Online
10–19 Jan 2018 45% 43% 12% 2% 5,075 ICM Online
9–12 Jan 2018 48% 44% 9% 4% 1,373 BMG Research Online [note 1]
11 Jan 2018 51% 43% 6% 8% 1,049 ComRes Online Not weighted by 2016 vote
13–19 Dec 2017 39% 48% 13% 9% 1,692 YouGov Online [note 1]
15 Dec 2017 The European Council decides to proceed to the second phase of the Brexit negotiations.[26]
8–10 Dec 2017 46% 43% 11% 3% 2,006 ICM Online
5–8 Dec 2017 51% 41% 8% 10% 1,363 BMG Research Online [note 1]
30 Nov – 1 Dec 2017 49% 46% 6% 3% 874 Survation Online Likely voters
16–17 Nov 2017 43% 43% 14% 0% 1,672 YouGov Online
14–17 Nov 2017 45% 45% 10% 0% 1,399 BMG Research Online [note 1]
18–24 Oct 2017 44% 40% 16% 4% 1,648 YouGov Online
19–20 Oct 2017 46% 45% 9% 1% 1,005 Opinium Online
17-20 Oct 2017 47% 44% 8% 3% 1,360 BMG Research Online [note 1]
4–5 Oct 2017 49% 45% 6% 3% 1,769 Survation Online Likely voters
26 Sep–2 Oct 2017 44% 46% 9% 2% 1,645 YouGov Online [note 1]
23 Sep 2017 46% 47% 6% 1% 999 Survation Online Likely voters
22 Sep 2017 Theresa May makes Florence speech, in an attempt to 'unblock' the Brexit negotiations.[27]
19–22 Sep 2017 45% 44% 12% 1% 2,004 Opinium Online
15–20 Sep 2017 47% 47% 5% 0% 1,410 Survation Online Likely voters
12–15 Sep 2017 47% 43% 10% 4% 1,379 BMG Research Online [note 1]
12–15 Sep 2017 45% 45% 10% 0% 2,009 Opinium Online
23–24 Aug 2017 45% 43% 12% 2% 1,729 YouGov Online
15–18 Aug 2017 47% 44% 9% 3% 2,006 Opinium Online
8-11 Aug 2017 46% 45% 9% 1% 1,358 BMG Research Online [note 1]
23–24 Jul 2017 46% 43% 11% 3% 1,609 YouGov Online
14–15 Jul 2017 47% 48% 5% 1% 909 Survation Online Likely voters
11–14 Jul 2017 46% 45% 9% 1% 1,385 BMG Research Online [note 1]
28–30 Jun 2017 52% 44% 5% 8% 1,017 Survation Telephone
23–30 Jun 2017 46% 42% 13% 4% 1,661 YouGov Online
16–21 Jun 2017 46% 50% 4% 4% 5,481 Panelbase Online
19 Jun 2017 Brexit negotiations begin.[28]
16–17 Jun 2017 50% 48% 3% 2% 1,005 Survation Telephone Likely voters
10 Jun 2017 48% 46% 6% 2% 1,036 Survation Online Likely voters
8 Jun 2017 2017 United Kingdom general election
2–7 Jun 2017 46% 51% 3% 5% 3,018 Panelbase Online Likely voters
2–5 Jun 2017 47% 44% 9% 3% 1,363 BMG Research Online [note 1]
26 May – 1 Jun 2017 47% 49% 4% 2% 1,224 Panelbase Online Likely voters
25–30 May 2017 35% 38% 27% 3% 1,199 Kantar TNS Online
21–22 May 2017 43% 43% 13% 0% 1,974 YouGov Online
19–22 May 2017 45% 45% 10% 0% 1,360 BMG Research Online [note 1]
12–15 May 2017 47% 50% 3% 3% 1,026 Panelbase Online Likely voters
5–9 May 2017 47% 49% 4% 2% 1,027 Panelbase Online Likely voters
28 Apr – 2 May 2017 48% 49% 3% 1% 1,034 Panelbase Online Likely voters
21–24 Apr 2017 45% 45% 10% 0% 1,465 BMG Research Online [note 1]
20–24 Apr 2017 46% 50% 4% 4% 1,026 Panelbase Online Likely voters
28–31 Mar 2017 46% 46% 8% 0% 1,437 BMG Research Online [note 1]
23–30 Mar 2017 44% 43% 14% 1% 1,643 YouGov Online
29 Mar 2017 The United Kingdom invokes Article 50.[29]
19 Feb – 2 Mar 2017 42% 44% 15% 2% 1,784 YouGov Online
21–24 Feb 2017 45% 46% 9% 1% 1,477 BMG Research Online [note 1]
19–20 Feb 2017 42% 44% 15% 2% 1,784 YouGov Online
19–24 Jan 2017 43% 44% 13% 1% 1,643 YouGov Online
17 Jan 2017 Theresa May makes Lancaster House speech, setting out the UK Government's negotiating priorities.[30]
6–9 Jan 2017 44% 45% 11% 1% 1,354 BMG Research Online [note 1]
14–21 Dec 2016 44% 43% 13% 1% 1,569 YouGov Online
15–18 Dec 2016 45% 47% 8% 2% 2,048 ComRes Online
6–9 Dec 2016 43% 46% 11% 3% 1,379 BMG Research Online [note 1]
21 Nov – 9 Dec 2016 43% 44% 13% 1% 1,693 YouGov Online
28–29 Nov 2016 46% 42% 12% 4% 1,624 YouGov Online
25–27 Nov 2016 46% 47% 6% 1% 2,035 ComRes Online
22–25 Nov 2016 43% 43% 14% 0% 1,409 BMG Research Online [note 1]
20–25 Oct 2016 44% 43% 13% 1% 1,631 YouGov Online
19–24 Oct 2016 45% 43% 12% 2% 1,546 BMG Research Online [note 1]
10–12 Oct 2016 44% 44% 12% 0% 1,002 Survation Online
2 Oct 2016 Theresa May makes Conservative Party Conference speech, announcing her intention to invoke Article 50 by 31 March 2017.[31]
16–20 Sep 2016 42% 46% 11% 4% 1,601 YouGov Online
31 Aug – 9 Sep 2016 43% 45% 13% 2% 1,711 YouGov Online
21–22 Jul 2016 43% 44% 13% 1% 1,673 YouGov Online
13 Jul 2016 Theresa May becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.[32]
3–4 Jul 2016 45% 45% 10% 0% 1,820 YouGov Online
29–30 Jun 2016 45% 37% 19% 8% 1,017 BMG Research Telephone[33]
28–30 Jun 2016 48% 42% 9% 6% 2,006 Opinium Online
23 Jun 2016 35% 37% 28% 3% United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016 [note 3]
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw Question does not explicitly ask how respondents would vote in a referendum.
  2. ^ Question asked in poll: "Regardless of the way you voted in the 2016 referendum, do you support or oppose the UK abiding by the referendum result and leaving the EU?"
  3. ^ Percentages are of registered voters.

Selective polling

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Date(s) conducted Remain Leave Neither Lead Sample Conducted by Polling type Notes
23–26 Jul 2019 46% 40% 14% 6% 1,071 YouGov Online Wales only
20–23 Jun 2019 69% 28% 3% 41% 1,813 YouGov Online Members of trade unions
16–20 May 2019 44% 41% 15% 3% 1,009 YouGov Online Wales only
26 Feb – 1 Mar 2019 70% 22% 8% 48% 5,004 YouGov Online Labour 2017 voters living in Northern England and the Midlands
69% 16% 15% 50% YouGov Labour 2017 voters living in Northern England and the Midlands. [note 1]
72% 19% 10% 53% YouGov Labour 2017 voters living in Northern England and the Midlands. [note 2]
15–22 Feb 2019 76% 14% 10% 62% 499 BMG Research Online Respondents of voting age only since 2016's referendum
48% 22% 30% 26% 1,125 Non-voters
2–7 Nov 2018 61% 34% 4% 27% 914 Panelbase Online Scotland only; likely voters
30 Oct – 2 Nov 2018 45% 41% 14% 4% 1,031 YouGov Online Wales only
3–6 Oct 2018 90% 7% 2% 83% 665 YouGov Online SNP members; unweighted
13–18 Sep 2018 90% 7% 3% 83% 1,054 YouGov Online Labour Party members
6–11 Sep 2018 63% 18% 19% 45% 1,645 YouGov Online 18–24 age group
69% 13% 18% 56% 480 Respondents of voting age only since 2016's referendum
30 Aug – 5 Sep 2018 55% 37% 8% 18% 620 YouGov Online GMB members
30 Aug – 5 Sep 2018 68% 27% 6% 41% 1,081 YouGov Online UNISON members
30 Aug – 5 Sep 2018 61% 35% 4% 26% 1,058 YouGov Online Unite the Union members
31 Jul – 3 Sep 2018 58% 30% 11% 28% 3,051 YouGov Online London only
24–28 Aug 2018 60% 38% 2% 22% 1,199 Deltapoll Online Northern Ireland only
31 Jul – 20 Aug 2018 42% 42% 16% 0% 807 YouGov Online North East England only
31 Jul – 19 Aug 2018 44% 42% 14% 2% 939 YouGov Online Wales only
8–14 Aug 2018 58% 30% 12% 28% 1,977 YouGov Online Scotland only
31 Jul – 7 Aug 2018 46% 43% 11% 3% 930 YouGov Online South West England only
28 Jun – 2 Jul 2018 44% 39% 17% 5% 1,031 YouGov Online Wales only
12–15 Mar 2018 45% 44% 12% 1% 1,015 YouGov Online Wales only
21–24 Nov 2017 45% 40% 15% 5% 1,016 YouGov Online Wales only
4–7 Sep 2017 46% 42% 12% 4% 1,011 YouGov Online Wales only
29–31 May 2017 42% 45% 13% 3% 1,014 YouGov Online Wales only
18–21 May 2017 45% 43% 13% 2% 1,025 YouGov Online Wales only
5–7 May 2017 43% 44% 13% 1% 1,018 YouGov Online Wales only
19–21 Apr 2017 43% 43% 14% 0% 1,029 YouGov Online Wales only
  1. ^ Options are accepting the UK's proposed withdrawal agreement or remaining in the EU.
  2. ^ Options are leaving the EU without a withdrawal agreement on trade and security or remaining in the EU.

Three-option referendum

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On 6 July 2018, the UK Cabinet agreed a statement at Chequers that set out a proposal for the future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union,[34] following which two members of the Cabinet resigned.[35] On 16 July 2018 the former Education Secretary Justine Greening noted the lack of a political consensus behind the Chequers proposal and said that, due to a 'stalemate' in the House of Commons, the issue of Brexit should be referred back to the electorate. She proposed a referendum with three options: to leave the EU on such terms as might be agreed between the UK Government and the EU 27; to leave the EU without agreed terms; or to remain in the EU. Voters would be asked to mark a first and second preference using the supplementary vote system. If there were no majority for any particular option among first-preference votes, the third-placed option would be eliminated and second preferences would be used to determine the winner from the two remaining options.[36]

The following table shows opinion polls that have been conducted on how people would vote in a three-option referendum. The table shows the poll results for a first round in which all three options would be available, and for a second round in which only the top two options in the first round would be available.

Date(s) conducted Round Remain Deal No deal None Lead Sample Conducted by Polling type Notes
17–18 Oct 2019 — 45% 34% 17% 5% 11% 1,025 Survation Online [note 1]
— 41% 38% 18% 4% 3% [note 1][note 2]
— 42% 42% — 16% 0%
17 Oct 2019 EU and UK negotiators agree a new withdrawal agreement.[37]
2–14 Oct 2019 — 42% 30% 20% 8% 12% 26,000 ComRes [note 1][note 2]
5–6 Sep 2019 — 55% — 41% 5% 14% 864 Panelbase Online Likely voters
24 Jul 2019 Boris Johnson replaces Theresa May as Prime Minister
2–5 Jul 2019 — — 26% 34% 40% 8% 1,532 BMG Research Online
— 43% 25% — 32% 18%
— 44% — 38% 18% 6%
23 May 2019 2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom
23–24 Apr 2019 I 44% 10% 28% 18% 15% 1,787 YouGov Online
— 45% 29% — 26% 17%
9–12 Apr 2019 — 45% 36% — 19% 8% 2,007 Opinium
29 Mar 2019 The House of Commons votes to reject the Government's proposed withdrawal agreement for the third time.
28–29 Mar 2019 — 46% 38% — 16% 8% 2,008 Opinium
19 Mar 2019 — 46% 30% — 24% 16% 2,084 YouGov Online
— 46% — 36% 18% 10% YouGov
15 Mar 2019 — — 36% 35% 29% 1% 1,007 Survation Online [note 1]
14–15 Mar 2019 — 47% 32% — 22% 15% 1,823 YouGov Online
— 47% — 38% 15% 9% YouGov
12 Mar 2019 The House of Commons votes to reject the Government's proposed withdrawal agreement for the second time.
30 Jan 2019 I 46% 19% 26% 9% 19% 1,029 Survation Online A new deal without the Northern Ireland backstop
10–17 Jan 2019 I 37% 23% 29% 10% 8% 1,030 Number Cruncher Politics Online [note 1]
16 Jan 2019 — 47% 27% — 26% 20% 1,070 YouGov Online
— 48% — 35% 16% 13% YouGov
15 Jan 2019 The House of Commons votes to reject the Government's proposed withdrawal agreement for the first time.[38]
10–11 Jan 2019 I 41% 22% 30% 8% 11% 1,013 Survation Online
21 Dec 2018 – 4 Jan 2019 — 46% 29% — 26% 17% 25,537 YouGov Online
— 46% — 34% 20% 12% YouGov
12–14 Dec 2018 — 45% 31% — 23% 14% 5,043 YouGov Online
6–7 Dec 2018 I 45% 15% 24% 17% 21% 1,652 YouGov Online
II 57% — 43% — 14%
— 47% 29% — 24% 18% YouGov
30 Nov – 3 Dec 2018 — 45% 33% — 22% 12% 2,007 Opinium
9–30 Nov 2018 Ministers including Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab and Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey resign in protest to the government's proposed withdrawal agreement (or to plans preceding it).[39]
26–27 Nov 2018 I 27% 18% 15% 40% 9% 1,013 Deltapoll[40] Online [note 1]
II 44% 56% — — 12% No "Neither" option. [note 1]
— 48% — 52% — 4%
— — 59% 41% — 18%
23–26 Nov 2018 I 47% 17% 26% 10% 21% 1,119 Sky Data Online
II 57% — 43% — 14%
15 Nov 2018 I 43% 16% 28% 13% 15% 1,070 Survation Online
— 43% 34% — 23% 10%
— — 32% 34% 34% 2%
15 Nov 2018 I 54% 14% 32% — 22% 1,488 Sky Data SMS "Neither" excluded. Not weighted by 2016 vote.
14 Nov 2018 The UK Cabinet approves a new draft withdrawal agreement.[41]
24 Oct – 6 Nov 2018 — 48% 43% — 9% 5% 8,154 Populus Online
28 Sep – 1 Oct 2018 I 51% 12% 28% 9% 23% 1,443 Sky Data Online
II 59% — 41% — 18%
10–11 Sep 2018 I 43% 15% 28% 14% 15% 1,070 Sky Data Online
II 55% — 45% — 10%
17–20 Aug 2018 I 48% 12% 30% 10% 18% 1,330 Sky Data Online
II 52% — 37% 12% 15%
31 Jul – 7 Aug 2018 I 40% 11% 27% 22% 13% 10,121 YouGov Online
II 56% — 44% — 12%
20–23 Jul 2018 I 48% 13% 27% 11% 21% 1,466 Sky Data Online
II 59% — 41% — 18%
19–20 Jul 2018 I 41% 9% 31% 19% 10% 1,668 YouGov Online
II 54% — 46% — 8%
16–17 Jul 2018 I 42% 15% 28% 15% 14% 1,657 YouGov Online
II 55% — 45% — 10%
8–9 Jul 2018 Brexit Secretary David Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson resign.[42]
6 Jul 2018 The UK Cabinet agrees the Chequers statement, setting out a proposal on the future UK–EU relationship.[43]
23 Jun 2016 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum
  1. ^ a b c d e f g Question was not asked in the context of a referendum.
  2. ^ a b Deal option is to leave with a withdrawal agreement, not necessarily the proposed one.

Selective polling

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Date(s) conducted Round Remain Deal No deal None Lead Sample Conducted by Polling type Notes
4 Nov 2019 — 29% 38% 18% 14% 9% 409 Survation Telephone Only in Gedling; [note 1][note 2]
23–26 Jul 2019 — — 61% 39% — 22% 1,071 YouGov Online Wales only. [note 1]
16–20 May 2019 — — 54% 46% — 8% 1,009 YouGov Online Wales only. [note 1]
7–10 May 2019 — 56% 23% — 21% 33% 1,015 YouGov Online London only
— — 38% 21% 41% 17%
6–11 Sep 2018 I 58% 10% 9% 23% 48% 1,645 YouGov Online 18–24 age group
II 82% 18% — — 64%
  1. ^ a b c Question was not asked in the context of a referendum.
  2. ^ Deal option is to leave with a withdrawal agreement, not necessarily the proposed one.

Four-option referendum

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Some polls have offered respondents a choice between remaining in the EU, leaving the EU but remaining within the European Single Market or EU Customs Union (see notes), accepting the negotiated deal and leaving without a deal.

Date(s) conducted Remain Single Market Deal No deal None Lead Sample Conducted by Polling type Notes
15–19 Aug 2019 33% 13% 9% 23% 22% 10% 1,133 Kantar Archived 21 August 2019 at the Wayback Machine Online
30 Jun – 1 Jul 2019 38% 11% 12% 26% 13% 12% 1,668 YouGov Online
17–18 Jun 2019 43% 16% 13% 28% — 15% 1,680 YouGov Online
28–29 May 2019 46% 13% [note 1] 9% 32% — 14% 1,763 YouGov Online
22–26 Mar 2019 46% 14% [note 1] 14% 27% — 19% 5,412 YouGov Online
  1. ^ a b or the Customs Union.

Support for another referendum

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There have been opinion polls to gauge support for a second referendum, on whether to accept or reject the final Brexit deal. Polling results vary depending on how the question is phrased: in general a "second referendum" is less popular than a "public vote" or similar descriptor.[44] One YouGov poll conducted in April 2018 for Best for Britain showed much greater support for the public "[having] a final say on whether Britain accepts the deal or remains in the EU after all" than for "a public vote" on the same question.[45]

Date(s) conducted Support Oppose Neither Lead Sample Conducted by Polling type Notes
17–18 Oct 2019 47% 44% 9% 3% 1,025 Survation Online
43% 41% 16% 2% [note 1]
17 Oct 2019 EU and UK negotiators agree a new withdrawal agreement.[46]
2–14 Oct 2019 41% 45% 14% 4% 26,000 ComRes Three-option referendum
29–30 Sep 2019 47% 29% 24% 18% 1,620 YouGov Online As opposed to a parliamentary vote, if a deal is negotiated.
52% 23% 25% 29% As opposed to a parliamentary vote, if no deal is negotiated.
5–9 Sep 2019 53% 29% 18% 24% 1,144 Kantar Online
5–7 Sep 2019 43% 42% 15% 1% 2,049 Deltapoll Online [note 1]
3–4 Sep 2019 46% 41% 13% 5% 1,533 YouGov Online
29–31 Aug 2019 41% 47% 12% 6% 2,028 Deltapoll Online [note 1]
15–19 Aug 2019 52% 29% 19% 23% 1,133 Kantar Online
25–27 Jul 2019 44% 44% 12% 0% 2,001 Deltapoll Online [note 1]
24 Jul 2019 Boris Johnson replaces Theresa May as Prime Minister
2–5 Jul 2019 41% 39% 19% 2% 1,532 BMG Research Online [note 1]
23 May 2019 2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom
9–13 May 2019 47% 28% 25% 19% 1,152 Kantar Online
4–8 Apr 2019 51% 32% 17% 19% 1,172 Kantar Online
2–5 Apr 2019 52% 24% 24% 28% 1,500 BMG Research Online
3 Apr 2019 35% 39% 25% 4% 1,068 Sky Data Online [note 2]
1 Apr 2019 The House of Commons rejects a motion proposing a referendum on the withdrawal agreement in the second round of indicative votes.
28–30 Mar 2019 40% 38% 22% 2% 1,010 Deltapoll Online
29 Mar 2019 The House of Commons votes to reject the Government's proposed withdrawal agreement for the third time.
28–29 Mar 2019 42% 40% 19% 2% 2,008 Opinium Online On whether MPs should have voted for the relevant motion during the indicative votes
27 Mar 2019 The House of Commons rejects a motion proposing a referendum on the withdrawal agreement in the first round of indicative votes.
27 Mar 2019 40% 35% 25% 4% 1,005 Sky Data Online On whether MPs should vote for the relevant motion during the indicative votes
19 Mar 2019 48% 36% 15% 12% 2,084 YouGov Online
14–15 Mar 2019 48% 36% 15% 12% 1,823 YouGov Online
50% 36% 14% 14% YouGov On whether to leave with no deal or remain in the EU, if the UK looks set to leave without a deal
14–15 Mar 2019 38% 52% 10% 14% 1,756 YouGov Online [note 1]
14 Mar 2019 The House of Commons rejects an amendment which called for a referendum on the withdrawal agreement.
12 Mar 2019 The House of Commons votes to reject the Government's proposed withdrawal agreement for the second time.
4–5 Mar 2019 44% 56% — 11% 2,042 ComRes Online No "Neither" option. Unusual wording. [note 1]
21–23 Feb 2019 43% 45% 11% 2% 1,027 Deltapoll Online [note 1]
18 Feb 2019 47% 35% 18% 12% 1,021 Survation Online
8–11 Feb 2019 41% 48% 11% 7% 2,004 Deltapoll Online [note 1]
4–8 Feb 2019 50% 32% 17% 18% 1,503 BMG Research Online
18 Jan 2019 39% 48% 14% 9% 1,021 Sky Data Online [note 1]
17 Jan 2019 30% 30% 40% 0% 1,792 Sky Data Online Three-option referendum
35% 29% 36% 6% Sky Data [note 2]
33% 31% 35% 2% Sky Data [note 3]
37% 30% 33% 7% Sky Data [note 4]
16–17 Jan 2019 38% 47% 15% 9% 2,031 ComRes Online [note 1]
16 Jan 2019 47% 36% 16% 11% 1,070 YouGov Online
15 Jan 2019 The House of Commons votes to reject the Government's proposed withdrawal agreement for the first time.[47]
14–15 Jan 2019 35% 48% 17% 12% 2,010 ComRes Online [note 1]
8–11 Jan 2019 46% 28% 26% 18% 1,514 BMG Research Online
7–8 Jan 2019 36% 49% 15% 13% 1,754 YouGov Online [note 1]
21 Dec 2018 – 4 Jan 2019 41% 36% 22% 5% 25,537 YouGov Online
14–15 Dec 2018 44% 35% 21% 9% 1,660 YouGov Online Three-option referendum
14–15 Dec 2018 50% 27% 22% 23% 1,660 YouGov Online If Parliament cannot decide how to proceed
13–14 Dec 2018 43% 46% 12% 3% 2,022 Deltapoll Online [note 1]
12–14 Dec 2018 44% 35% 20% 9% 5,043 YouGov Online
30 Nov-2 Dec 2018 40% 50% 11% 10% 2,035 ComRes Online [note 1]
9–30 Nov 2018 Ministers including Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab and Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey resign in protest to the government's proposed withdrawal agreement (or to plans preceding it).[48]
28–29 Nov 2018 45% 36% 18% 9% 1,655 YouGov Online
23–26 Nov 2018 53% 39% 8% 14% 1,119 Sky Data Online Three-option referendum
15-16 Nov 2018 44% 30% 26% 14% 1,256 Populus Online
15 Nov 2018 55% 35% 10% 20% 1,488 Sky Data SMS Three-option referendum. Not weighted by 2016 vote.
15 Nov 2018 42% 38% 20% 4% 1,070 Survation Online
14–15 Nov 2018 48% 34% 17% 14% 1,153 YouGov Online
14–15 Nov 2018 47% 53% — 6% 2,000 ComRes Online Only if there is no deal. Not weighted by 2016 vote. No "Neither" option. [note 1]
14 Nov 2018 The UK Cabinet approves a new draft withdrawal agreement.[49]
7 Nov 2018 The Scottish Parliament commits to providing unequivocal support for a public vote on the final terms of the Brexit deal.[50]
24 Oct – 6 Nov 2018 65% 35% — 30% 8,154 Populus Online No "Neither" option
20 Oct – 2 Nov 2018 43% 37% 20% 6% 20,086 Survation Online [note 2]
38% 39% 23% 1% [note 3]
39% 37% 24% 2% [note 5]
28 Sep – 1 Oct 2018 53% 40% 7% 13% 1,443 Sky Data Online Three-option referendum
25–26 Sep 2018 34% 50% 16% 16% 1,634 YouGov Online [note 3]
37% 48% 15% 11% [note 2]
21–22 Sep 2018 39% 43% 17% 4% 1,643 YouGov Online
18–19 Sep 2018 40% 43% 17% 3% 2,509 YouGov Online
10–11 Sep 2018 50% 39% 10% 11% 1,070 Sky Data Online Three-option referendum
4–5 Sep 2018 40% 41% 18% 1% 1,628 YouGov Online
31 Jul – 4 Sep 2018 45% 35% 21% 10% 25,641 YouGov Online
31 Aug – 1 Sep 2018 40% 43% 17% 3% 1,600 YouGov Online
31 Aug – 1 Sep 2018 45% 37% 18% 9% 1,017 Survation Online
17–20 Aug 2018 50% 42% 9% 8% 1,330 Sky Data Online Three-option referendum
31 Jul – 20 Aug 2018 45% 33% 22% 12% 18,772 YouGov Online
6–10 Aug 2018 48% 24% 27% 24% 1,481 BMG Research Online
26–31 Jul 2018 43% 41% 17% 2% 4,957 YouGov Online [note 2]
25–26 Jul 2018 42% 40% 18% 2% 1,631 YouGov Online
24 Jul 2018 The Independent launches its campaign for a second referendum.[51]
20–23 Jul 2018 50% 40% 10% 9% 1,466 Sky Data Online Three-option referendum
16–17 Jul 2018 40% 42% 18% 2% 1,657 YouGov Online
36% 47% 17% 11% Three-option referendum
10–11 Jul 2018 37% 41% 23% 4% 1,732 YouGov Online
8–9 Jul 2018 Brexit Secretary David Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson resign.[52]
6 Jul 2018 The UK Cabinet agrees the Chequers statement, setting out a proposal on the future UK–EU relationship.[53]
3–5 Jul 2018 44% 27% 29% 17% 1,511 BMG Research Online
19–20 Jun 2018 37% 45% 18% 8% 1,663 YouGov Online
19–20 Jun 2018 48% 25% 27% 23% 1,022 Survation Online
13–14 May 2018 38% 46% 16% 8% 1,634 YouGov Online
12 May 2018 The National Union of Students calls for a referendum on the final deal.[54]
1–4 May 2018 53% 31% 16% 22% 2,005 Opinium
15 Apr 2018 People's Vote campaign launched.[55]
10–12 Apr 2018 52% 31% 17% 21% 2,008 Opinium Online
9–10 Apr 2018 38% 45% 17% 7% 1,639 YouGov Online
6–8 Apr 2018 47% 36% 17% 11% 2,012 ICM Online [note 2]
5–6 Apr 2018 39% 45% 17% 6% 823 YouGov Online [note 2]
26–27 Mar 2018 36% 42% 22% 6% 1,659 YouGov Online
16–23 Mar 2018 41% 52% 7% 11% 1,616 Sky Data Online [note 1]
5–6 Mar 2018 36% 43% 20% 7% 1,641 YouGov Online
2 Mar 2018 35% 54% 11% 19% 1,096 ComRes Online [note 1]
2 Mar 2018 Theresa May makes Mansion House speech, outlining the UK Government's policy on the future UK–EU relationship.[56]
16–23 Mar 2018 41% 52% 7% 12% 1,616 Sky Data Online [note 1]
14–16 Feb 2018 34% 54% 11% 20% 1,482 Sky Data Online [note 1]
16–19 Jan 2018 35% 56% 9% 21% 1,096 Sky Data Online [note 1]
10–19 Jan 2018 47% 34% 19% 13% 5,075 ICM Online [note 2]
9–10 Jan 2018 36% 43% 21% 7% 1,714 YouGov Online
15 Dec 2017 The European Council decides to proceed to the second phase of the Brexit negotiations.[57]
10–11 Dec 2017 33% 42% 24% 9% 1,680 YouGov Online
30 Nov – 1 Dec 2017 50% 34% 16% 16% 1,003 Survation Online
23–24 Oct 2017 32% 46% 22% 14% 1,637 YouGov Online
22–24 Sep 2017 34% 46% 21% 12% 1,716 YouGov Online
22 Sep 2017 Theresa May makes Florence speech, in an attempt to 'unblock' the Brexit negotiations.[58]
12–13 Sep 2017 34% 47% 19% 13% 1,660 YouGov Online
14–15 Jul 2017 46% 39% 15% 7% 1,024 Survation Online
7–11 Jul 2017 41% 48% 12% 7% 2,005 Opinium [note 2]
28–30 Jun 2017 46% 47% 6% 1% 1,017 Survation Telephone
16–20 Jun 2017 38% 51% 11% 13% 2,005 Opinium [note 2]
19 Jun 2017 Brexit negotiations begin.[59]
16–17 Jun 2017 48% 43% 9% 5% 1,005 Survation Telephone
16–17 Jun 2017 38% 57% 4% 19% 1,005 Survation Telephone [note 2]
10 Jun 2017 36% 55% 9% 18% 1,036 Survation Online [note 1]
8 Jun 2017 2017 United Kingdom general election
28 Apr – 2 May 2017 36% 53% 11% 17% 2,003 Opinium [note 2]
27–28 Apr 2017 31% 49% 20% 18% 1,612 YouGov Online
21–22 Apr 2017 39% 46% 14% 7% 2,072 Survation Online
20–21 Apr 2017 31% 48% 21% 17% 1,590 YouGov Online
29 Mar 2017 The United Kingdom invokes Article 50.[60]
17–21 Mar 2017 38% 52% 10% 14% 2,003 Opinium [note 2]
17 Jan 2017 Theresa May makes Lancaster House speech, setting out the UK Government's negotiating priorities.[61]
15–18 Dec 2016 35% 53% 13% 18% 2,048 ComRes [note 1]
13–16 Dec 2016 33% 52% 15% 19% 2,000 Opinium [note 2]
2 Oct 2016 Theresa May makes Conservative Party Conference speech, announcing her intention to invoke Article 50 by 31 March 2017.[62]
13 Jul 2016 Theresa May becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.[63]
29–30 Jun 2016 32% 60% 7% 28% 1,017 BMG Research Telephone [note 1]
27–28 Jun 2016 31% 58% 11% 27% 1,760 YouGov Online [note 1]
23 Jun 2016 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y Question asked about a second EU referendum, not necessarily on the final deal.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n Referendum on whether to accept the negotiated terms or remain in the EU.
  3. ^ a b c Referendum on whether to accept the negotiated terms or leave the EU without a deal.
  4. ^ Referendum on whether to remain in the EU or leave the EU without a deal.
  5. ^ Referendum on whether to accept the negotiated terms or re-open negotiations with a view to getting a better deal.

Selective polling

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Date(s) conducted Support Oppose Neither Lead Sample Conducted by Polling type Notes
23–26 Jul 2019 43% 46% 11% 3% 1,071 YouGov Online Wales only. [note 1]
20–23 Jun 2019 64% 33% 3% 31% 1,813 YouGov Online Members of trade unions
16–20 May 2019 40% 49% 12% 9% 1,009 YouGov Online Wales only. [note 1]
26 Feb – 1 Mar 2019 65% 22% 13% 43% 5,004 YouGov Online Labour 2017 voters living in Northern England and the Midlands
15–22 Feb 2019 54% 19% 27% 35% 499 BMG Research Online Respondents of voting age only since 2016's referendum
38% 25% 37% 13% 1,125 Non-voters
30 Oct – 2 Nov 2018 41% 49% 10% 8% 1,031 YouGov Online Wales only. [note 1]
3–6 Oct 2018 83% 10% 6% 73% 665 YouGov Online SNP members; unweighted
13–18 Sep 2018 86% 8% 6% 78% 1,054 YouGov Online Labour Party members
6–11 Sep 2018 52% 22% 25% 30% 1,645 YouGov Online 18–24 age group
30 Aug – 5 Sep 2018 56% 33% 10% 23% 620 YouGov Online GMB members
30 Aug – 5 Sep 2018 66% 22% 11% 44% 1,081 YouGov Online UNISON members
30 Aug – 5 Sep 2018 59% 33% 8% 26% 1,058 YouGov Online Unite the Union members
31 Jul – 3 Sep 2018 52% 30% 19% 22% 3,051 YouGov Online London only
31 Jul – 19 Aug 2018 44% 36% 21% 8% 939 YouGov Online Wales only
28 Jun – 2 Jul 2018 40% 45% 15% 5% 1,031 YouGov Online Wales only. [note 1]
27–30 Jun 2018 57% 34% 9% 23% 902 YouGov Online Unite the Union members
12–15 Mar 2018 39% 49% 12% 10% 1,015 YouGov Online Wales only. [note 1]
21–24 Nov 2017 44% 43% 13% 1% 1,016 YouGov Online Wales only. [note 1]
4–7 Sep 2017 40% 48% 12% 8% 1,011 YouGov Online Wales only. [note 1]
29–31 May 2017 33% 56% 11% 23% 1,025 YouGov Online Wales only. [note 1]
18–21 May 2017 37% 52% 11% 15% 1,025 YouGov Online Wales only. [note 1]
5–7 May 2017 37% 53% 10% 16% 1,018 YouGov Online Wales only. [note 1]
19–21 Apr 2017 35% 53% 12% 18% 1,029 YouGov Online Wales only. [note 1]
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Question asked about a second EU referendum, not necessarily on the final deal.

On the UK rejoining the EU

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Some polls conducted prior to the UK's formal exit worded the question as whether to rejoin rather than stay in the EU.

Date(s) conducted Join Not join Neither Lead Sample Conducted by Polling type
27 Mar 2019 38% 38% 25% Tie 1,005 Sky Data Online
27 Mar – 5 Apr 2018 31% 47% 22% 16% 1,037 Number Cruncher Politics Online

See also

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References

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  1. ^ a b Cecil, Nicholas (10 October 2019). "Brexit news latest: Poll of polls says Britain is now against leaving EU as most want to stay". Evening Standard. London Evening Standard. Archived from the original on 16 October 2019. Retrieved 19 October 2019.
  2. ^ Kellner, Peter (10 October 2019). "Everyone says they know what the public think about Brexit – here's the polling data that tells you who's right". The Independent. Archived from the original on 16 October 2019. Retrieved 16 October 2019.
  3. ^ Curtice, John (8 February 2019). "Has There Been a Shift in Support for Brexit?". What UK Thinks. Archived from the original on 16 May 2019. Retrieved 16 May 2019. Until the 2017 general election typically more people said that the decision to leave the EU was right than stated it was wrong. Since then the oppose has been the case ... The reason why the balance of opinion had shifted in favour of Remain, even though very few Leave voters had changed their minds, was because those who had not voted before (in some cases because they had been too young to do so) were now decisively in favour of Remain.
  4. ^ Curtice, John (17 October 2019). "Have UK voters changed their minds on Brexit?". BBC News. Archived from the original on 23 October 2019. Retrieved 23 October 2019. On average, during the last month, polls that ask people how they would vote in another referendum suggest that 88% of those who backed Remain would do so again. Among those who voted Leave, 86% have not changed their minds.
  5. ^ "New Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration". GOV.UK. Department for Exiting the European Union. 19 October 2019. Retrieved 2 November 2019. The revised Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration were considered and agreed at European Council on 17 October 2019.
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  25. ^ "'Hard facts' for both sides in Brexit talks – Theresa May". BBC News. 2 March 2018. Retrieved 11 March 2018.
  26. ^ "Brexit: EU leaders agree to move talks to next stage". BBC News. 15 December 2017. Retrieved 16 December 2017.
  27. ^ "Theresa May urges EU to retain trade terms for two years after Brexit". BBC News. 22 September 2017. Retrieved 13 October 2017.
  28. ^ "Brexit negotiations: Barnier rules out 'concessions'". BBC News. 19 June 2017. Retrieved 23 June 2017.
  29. ^ "'No turning back' on Brexit as Article 50 triggered". BBC News. 29 March 2017. Retrieved 29 March 2017.
  30. ^ "Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May". BBC News. 17 January 2017. Retrieved 24 March 2017.
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  32. ^ "Theresa May vows to be 'one nation' prime minister". BBC News. 13 July 2016. Retrieved 24 March 2017.
  33. ^ https://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/CONFIDENTIAL-Methodology-Sheet-BMG-Research-EU-ReferendumRe-contact-survey-for-Evening-Standard-010716.pdf
  34. ^ "Brexit: Cabinet agrees 'collective' stance on future EU deal". BBC News. 7 July 2018. Retrieved 8 July 2018.
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  40. ^ http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/steve-fisher-condorcet
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  43. ^ "Brexit: Cabinet agrees 'collective' stance on future EU deal". BBC News. 7 July 2018. Retrieved 8 July 2018.
  44. ^ "A Question of Wording? Another Look at Polling on a Second Referendum". What UK Thinks: EU. Retrieved 30 March 2019.
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  50. ^ "Meeting of the Parliament 07 November 2018 [Draft]". The Scottish Parliament. 7 November 2018. Retrieved 4 December 2018. providing unequivocal support for a public vote on the final terms of the Brexit deal.
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  58. ^ "Theresa May urges EU to retain trade terms for two years after Brexit". BBC News. 22 September 2017. Retrieved 13 October 2017.
  59. ^ "Brexit negotiations: Barnier rules out 'concessions'". BBC News. 19 June 2017. Retrieved 23 June 2017.
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