2018 Oregon gubernatorial election
The 2018 Oregon gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor of Oregon to serve a full four-year term. In the 2016 special election, Democratic Governor Kate Brown had been elected to serve the last two years of John Kitzhaber's term.[1]
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Brown: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Buehler: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | ||||||||||||||||||||
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The Republican Party nominated Knute Buehler, her opponent in the 2012 Oregon Secretary of State election; the Independent Party of Oregon nominated Patrick Starnes. Brown, running for a full term, won the election; because of term limits, she became ineligible to seek the governorship again.
Democratic primary
editCandidates
editDeclared
edit- Kate Brown, incumbent governor[2]
- Ed Jones[3]
- Candace Neville[3]
Endorsements
editResults
edit- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Kate Brown (incumbent) | 324,541 | 81.9 | |
Democratic | Ed Jones | 33,464 | 8.4 | |
Democratic | Candace Neville | 29,110 | 7.4 | |
Democratic | Write-ins | 8,912 | 2.3 | |
Total votes | 396,027 | 100.0 |
Republican primary
editCandidates
editDeclared
edit- Keenan Bohach[3]
- Knute Buehler, Orthopedic Surgeon, state representative and nominee for secretary of state in 2012[11]
- Sam Carpenter, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 and 2016[12][13][14]
- Jonathan Edwards III[3]
- Brett Hyland[3]
- Jeff Smith, small business owner[15]
- David Stauffer[3]
- Jack Tracy[3]
- Greg Wooldridge, former Blue Angels commanding officer[16]
Withdrew
edit- Bruce Cuff, real estate broker and candidate for governor in 2014 and 2016 (endorsed Greg Wooldridge)[3][17]
Declined
edit- Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Mayor of Happy Valley and nominee for the state house in 2016[18][11][19]
- Cedric Ross Hayden, state representative[20]
- Mike McLane, House Minority Leader[21]
- Bud Pierce, physician and nominee for governor in 2016[22][23]
- Bill Post, state representative[20][11]
- Dennis Richardson, Oregon Secretary of State, former state representative and nominee for governor in 2014[24]
Endorsements
edit- U.S. Senators
- Gordon H. Smith, former U.S. Senator (R-OR)[25][9]
- State legislators
- Cliff Bentz, state senator[26]
- Bill Hansell, state senator[27]
- Greg Barreto, state representative[26]
- Daniel Bonham, state representative[26]
- Sal Esquivel, state representative[9][28]
- Lynn Findley, state representative[26]
- Dallas Heard, state representative[29]
- Mike McLane, state representative[26]
- Ron Noble, state representative[26]
- Andy Olson, state representative[26]
- E. Werner Reschke, state representative[30]
- Gene Whisnant, state representative[31][9]
- Individuals
- Rob Harris, co-chair of the Independent Party of Oregon[32]
- Antoinette Hatfield, former First Lady of Oregon[33]
- Phil Knight, businessman, co-founder of Nike[34][9]
- Organizations
- National Federation of Independent Business[35]
- Oregon Cattlemen's Association[36]
- Oregon Farm Bureau[36]
- Newspapers
Debates
editHost network |
Date | Link(s) | Participants | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Knute Buehler |
Sam Carpenter |
Greg Wooldridge | |||
KXL-FM | May 11, 2018 | [51] | Invited | Invited | Invited |
Polling
editPoll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Knute Buehler |
Sam Carpenter |
Lori Chavez-DeRemer |
Greg Wooldridge |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Global Strategy Group (D) | May 3–6, 2018 | 438 | ± 4.7% | 33% | 25% | – | 8% | – | 33% |
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter) | April 19–22, 2018 | 1,013 | ± 3.1% | 39% | 24% | – | 12% | 6%[a] | 20% |
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter) | March 19–25, 2018 | 628 | – | 23% | 23% | – | 4% | – | 50% |
iCitizen | September 13–28, 2017 | 168 | ± 3.9% | 28% | – | 8% | 31% | 6% | 26% |
Results
edit- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Knute Buehler | 144,103 | 45.9 | |
Republican | Sam Carpenter | 90,572 | 28.8 | |
Republican | Greg C. Wooldridge | 63,049 | 20.1 | |
Republican | Bruce Cuff | 4,857 | 1.5 | |
Republican | Jeff Smith | 4,691 | 1.5 | |
Republican | David Stauffer | 2,096 | 0.7 | |
Republican | Write-ins | 1,701 | 0.5 | |
Republican | Jonathan Edwards III | 861 | 0.3 | |
Republican | Keenan Bohach | 787 | 0.3 | |
Republican | Brett Hyland | 755 | 0.2 | |
Republican | Jack W. Tacy | 512 | 0.2 | |
Total votes | 313,984 | 100 |
Independent Party primary
editCandidates
editDeclared
editResults
editParty | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Independent Party | Write-ins | 13,497 | 56.8 | |
Independent Party | Patrick Starnes | 6,030 | 25.4 | |
Independent Party | Skye J. Allen | 2,405 | 10.6 | |
Independent Party | Dan Pistoresi | 1,846 | 7.8 | |
Total votes | 23,778 | 100.0 |
General election
editDebates
edit- Complete video of debate, October 2, 2018
- Third party debate, featuring Nick Chen (L), Patrick Starnes (I), and Chris Henry (P), hosted by former Green Party candidate Alex DiBlasi, October 6, 2018
- Complete video of debate, October 9, 2018
Predictions
editSource | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[52] | Tossup | October 26, 2018 |
The Washington Post[53] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
FiveThirtyEight[54] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
Rothenberg Political Report[55] | Tilt D | November 1, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[56] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics[57] | Tossup | November 4, 2018 |
Daily Kos[58] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
Fox News[59][b] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
Politico[60] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
Governing[61] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
- Notes
Polling
editGraphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
- Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kate Brown (D) |
Knute Buehler (R) |
Other/Undecided [a] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics | October 4–30, 2018 | October 30, 2018 | 44.0% | 39.7% | 16.3% | Brown +4.3% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kate Brown (D) |
Knute Buehler (R) |
Patrick Starnes (IPO) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hoffman Research Group | October 29–30, 2018 | 694 | ± 3.7% | 45% | 42% | 4% | 2%[62] | 7% |
Emerson College | October 26–28, 2018 | 747 | ± 3.7% | 47% | 42% | – | 7% | 4% |
DHM Research | October 4–11, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 40% | 35% | 4% | 3%[63] | 17% |
Riley Research Associates | September 24 – October 7, 2018 | 356 | ± 5.0% | 49% | 45% | 4% | 3%[64] | – |
Clout Research (R) | September 20–23, 2018 | 679 | ± 3.8% | 42% | 41% | – | – | – |
Hoffman Research Group | September 12–13, 2018 | 680 | ± 3.8% | 46% | 36% | 4% | 2%[62] | 12% |
Causeway Solutions (R-No Supermajorities PAC) | September 6–11, 2018 | 2,831 | ± 2.0% | 41% | 43% | – | – | – |
Clout Research (R) | July 30–31, 2018 | 559 | ± 4.1% | 42% | 43% | – | – | 15% |
Gravis Marketing | July 16–17, 2018 | 770 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 45% | – | – | 10% |
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter) | March 19–25, 2018 | 2,067 | ± 2.2% | 41% | 46% | – | – | 14% |
DHM Research | January 25–31, 2018 | 604 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 29% | – | – | 25% |
Zogby Analytics | November 10–12, 2017 | 508 | ± 4.4% | 39% | 36% | – | – | 25% |
iCitizen | September 13–28, 2017 | 645 | ± 3.9% | 41% | 40% | – | 11% | 8% |
- with Sam Carpenter
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kate Brown (D) |
Sam Carpenter (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter) | March 19–25, 2018 | 2,067 | ± 2.2% | 41% | 46% | – | 13% |
Zogby Analytics | November 10–12, 2017 | 508 | ± 4.4% | 38% | 36% | – | 26% |
- with Greg Wooldridge
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kate Brown (D) |
Greg Wooldridge (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter) | March 19–25, 2018 | 2,067 | ± 2.2% | 42% | 47% | – | 11% |
iCitizen | September 13–28, 2017 | 645 | ± 3.9% | 42% | 39% | 11% | 7% |
- with Lori Chavez-DeRemer
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kate Brown (D) |
Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
iCitizen | September 13–28, 2017 | 645 | ± 3.9% | 40% | 34% | 17% | 8% |
Results
editStatewide results
editParty | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Kate Brown (incumbent) | 934,498 | 50.05% | −0.57% | |
Republican | Knute Buehler | 814,988 | 43.65% | +0.20% | |
Independent Party | Patrick Starnes | 53,392 | 2.86% | +0.42% | |
Libertarian | Nick Chen | 28,927 | 1.55% | −0.77% | |
Constitution | Aaron Auer | 21,145 | 1.13% | +0.13% | |
Progressive | Chris Henry | 11,013 | 0.59% | N/A | |
Write-in | 3,034 | 0.16% | -0.01% | ||
Total votes | 1,866,997 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic hold |
Results by congressional district
editBrown carried two out of the state's five congressional districts, losing two swing districts that simultaneously voted for Democrats in the US House, with Oregon's 4th congressional district held by veteran congressman Peter DeFazio and Oregon's 5th congressional district held by former veterinarian Kurt Schrader.
District | Kate Brown |
Knute Buehler |
Elected Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 53.77% | 40.51% | Suzanne Bonamici |
2nd | 35.38% | 57.19% | Greg Walden |
3rd | 69.17% | 26.45% | Earl Blumenauer |
4th | 44.84% | 47.15% | Peter DeFazio |
5th | 46.02% | 47.97% | Kurt Schrader |
County results
editCounty | Kate Brown
Democrat |
Votes | Knute Buehler
Republican |
Votes | Patrick Starnes
Independent |
Votes | Nick Chen
Libertarian |
Votes | Aaron Auer
Constitution |
Votes | Chris Henry
Progressive |
Votes | Write-in | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baker | 19.0% | 1,572 | 72.9% | 6,023 | 4.2% | 347 | 1.6% | 132 | 1.5% | 126 | 0.6% | 49 | 0.2% | 15 | 8,264 |
Benton | 60.1% | 26,592 | 33.9% | 14,990 | 2.8% | 1,225 | 1.6% | 721 | 0.8% | 357 | 0.7% | 293 | 0.1% | 53 | 44,231 |
Clackamas | 45.5% | 91,088 | 49.2% | 98,468 | 2.4% | 4,726 | 1.4% | 2,827 | 0.9% | 1,853 | 0.5% | 941 | 0.2% | 363 | 200,266 |
Clatsop | 48.0% | 8,909 | 44.7% | 8,294 | 3.3% | 616 | 1.6% | 305 | 1.4% | 259 | 0.8% | 140 | 0.2% | 35 | 18,558 |
Columbia | 38.7% | 9,519 | 52.6% | 12,953 | 4.0% | 975 | 1.9% | 480 | 2.0% | 481 | 0.7% | 167 | 0.2% | 42 | 24,617 |
Coos | 33.5% | 9,622 | 57.5% | 16,520 | 4.4% | 1,262 | 1.8% | 505 | 1.8% | 510 | 0.9% | 256 | 0.2% | 52 | 28,727 |
Crook | 19.8% | 2,285 | 73.8% | 8,516 | 3.6% | 418 | 1.0% | 110 | 1.2% | 140 | 0.4% | 42 | 0.2% | 25 | 11,536 |
Curry | 35.9% | 4,141 | 56.1% | 6,474 | 3.8% | 443 | 1.6% | 188 | 1.7% | 199 | 0.7% | 75 | 0.1% | 13 | 11,533 |
Deschutes | 42.3% | 40,676 | 52.0% | 49,983 | 2.9% | 2,764 | 1.4% | 1,353 | 0.8% | 766 | 0.5% | 460 | 0.1% | 97 | 96,099 |
Douglas | 24.0% | 11,824 | 65.8% | 32,413 | 5.0% | 2,481 | 1.5% | 738 | 2.7% | 1,326 | 0.7% | 368 | 0.2% | 88 | 49,238 |
Gilliam | 22.0% | 218 | 69.6% | 691 | 4.6% | 46 | 1.9% | 19 | 1.4% | 14 | 0.5% | 5 | 0.0% | 0 | 993 |
Grant | 16.8% | 649 | 75.9% | 2,923 | 3.9% | 151 | 1.2% | 48 | 1.5% | 56 | 0.5% | 19 | 0.2% | 7 | 3,853 |
Harney | 16.5% | 584 | 76.7% | 2,722 | 3.6% | 126 | 0.8% | 29 | 1.8% | 63 | 0.6% | 20 | 0.1% | 3 | 3,547 |
Hood River | 59.9% | 6,485 | 35.0% | 3,789 | 2.5% | 271 | 1.3% | 136 | 0.7% | 81 | 0.5% | 55 | 0.1% | 11 | 10,828 |
Jackson | 41.4% | 42,207 | 50.7% | 51,623 | 4.1% | 4,196 | 1.7% | 1,720 | 1.3% | 1,313 | 0.7% | 716 | 0.1% | 132 | 101,907 |
Jefferson | 29.8% | 2,635 | 62.3% | 5,518 | 4.4% | 388 | 1.3% | 111 | 1.6% | 145 | 0.5% | 45 | 0.1% | 10 | 8,852 |
Josephine | 30.2% | 12,214 | 60.5% | 24,499 | 4.3% | 1,735 | 1.9% | 767 | 2.2% | 881 | 0.8% | 308 | 0.2% | 66 | 40,470 |
Klamath | 22.3% | 6,301 | 67.7% | 19,134 | 4.9% | 1,371 | 2.3% | 643 | 2.0% | 564 | 0.7% | 198 | 0.2% | 45 | 28,256 |
Lake | 13.4% | 476 | 78.0% | 2,774 | 4.4% | 155 | 1.5% | 52 | 2.3% | 81 | 0.4% | 14 | 0.1% | 5 | 3,557 |
Lane | 54.7% | 96,841 | 38.2% | 67,737 | 3.2% | 5,683 | 1.8% | 3,106 | 1.2% | 2,173 | 0.8% | 1,335 | 0.2% | 297 | 177,172 |
Lincoln | 52.1% | 12,610 | 40.8% | 9,884 | 3.4% | 825 | 1.6% | 391 | 1.2% | 302 | 0.7% | 164 | 0.2% | 43 | 24,219 |
Linn | 30.1% | 16,461 | 60.5% | 33,051 | 4.2% | 2,293 | 1.9% | 1,061 | 2.2% | 1,204 | 0.8% | 421 | 0.3% | 171 | 54,662 |
Malheur | 24.1% | 2,159 | 66.9% | 6,000 | 4.1% | 364 | 1.7% | 156 | 2.5% | 227 | 0.6% | 52 | 0.1% | 12 | 8,970 |
Marion | 43.5% | 55,238 | 49.9% | 63,323 | 2.8% | 3,511 | 1.7% | 2,100 | 1.4% | 1,831 | 0.5% | 650 | 0.3% | 325 | 126,978 |
Morrow | 22.5% | 844 | 67.5% | 2,534 | 4.3% | 163 | 1.8% | 68 | 3.0% | 111 | 0.8% | 29 | 0.1% | 5 | 3,754 |
Multnomah | 73.9% | 279,384 | 22.1% | 83,507 | 1.7% | 6,309 | 1.2% | 4,447 | 0.5% | 1,793 | 0.6% | 2,174 | 0.1% | 484 | 378,098 |
Polk | 41.6% | 15,529 | 51.8% | 19,341 | 2.9% | 1,076 | 1.6% | 589 | 1.3% | 491 | 0.6% | 206 | 0.2% | 83 | 37,315 |
Sherman | 19.3% | 190 | 74.7% | 736 | 3.5% | 34 | 0.7% | 7 | 1.5% | 15 | 0.2% | 2 | 0.1% | 1 | 985 |
Tillamook | 42.7% | 5,616 | 50.3% | 6,606 | 3.5% | 464 | 1.2% | 158 | 1.5% | 202 | 0.6% | 77 | 0.1% | 19 | 13,142 |
Umatilla | 29.4% | 7,085 | 63.0% | 15,178 | 3.7% | 885 | 1.7% | 419 | 1.6% | 393 | 0.5% | 117 | 0.1% | 31 | 24,108 |
Union | 24.5% | 2,877 | 67.9% | 7,983 | 3.8% | 441 | 1.4% | 162 | 1.8% | 209 | 0.5% | 60 | 0.2% | 24 | 11,756 |
Wallowa | 27.0% | 1,088 | 66.2% | 2,668 | 3.6% | 145 | 1.2% | 47 | 1.5% | 61 | 0.5% | 19 | 0.1% | 4 | 4,032 |
Wasco | 40.5% | 4,604 | 51.4% | 5,841 | 3.8% | 427 | 1.8% | 203 | 1.6% | 177 | 0.7% | 85 | 0.2% | 20 | 11,357 |
Washington | 55.5% | 137,886 | 39.2% | 97,286 | 2.2% | 5,535 | 1.7% | 4,229 | 0.8% | 2,010 | 0.5% | 1,161 | 0.1% | 372 | 248,479 |
Wheeler | 19.3% | 158 | 72.6% | 594 | 4.6% | 38 | 1.8% | 15 | 1.2% | 10 | 0.4% | 3 | 0.0% | 0 | 818 |
Yamhill | 39.1% | 17,931 | 53.3% | 24,412 | 3.3% | 1,503 | 1.9% | 885 | 1.6% | 721 | 0.6% | 287 | 0.2% | 81 | 45,820 |
Notes
edit- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
References
edit- ^ KOIN 6 News Staff (November 8, 2016). "Kate Brown wins 2-year term as Oregon governor". KOIN 6 News. Retrieved November 15, 2016.
{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) - ^ Borrud, Hillary (September 25, 2017). "Kate Brown announces she will seek re-election". The Oregonian. Retrieved September 26, 2017.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Radnovich, Connor (March 7, 2018). "17 people running for Oregon governor, the most crowded field in two decades". Statesman Journal. Retrieved March 8, 2018.
- ^ Warner, Gary A. (August 7, 2017). "Political parties rev up for 2018 election". The Bulletin. Retrieved August 19, 2017.
- ^ Riley, John (November 14, 2017). "Victory Fund endorses Rich Madeleno for governor". Metro Weekly. Retrieved February 7, 2018.
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- ^ Knute Buehler. "Honored to have the support of a woman who has dedicated her life to making Oregon a better place and to call her a friend. #orpol #knuteforgov". Twitter.
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- ^ "Editorial: Vote Buehler in Republican primary". The Bulletin. April 23, 2018.
- ^ "Editorial: Buehler the best choice for Oregon". The Bulletin. October 17, 2018. Retrieved October 18, 2018.
- ^ "WW's May 2018 Endorsements for Oregon Statewide Office". Willamette Week. April 25, 2018.
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- ^ Lars Larson Debate – YouTube
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- ^ "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News.
- ^ "Politico Race Ratings". Politico.
- ^ "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Archived from the original on October 21, 2018. Retrieved July 18, 2018.
- ^ a b Aaron Auer (C) and Nick Chen (L) with 1%
- ^ Nick Chen (L) and Chris Henry (P) with 1%, Aaron Auer (C) with <1%, somebody else with 1%
- ^ Nick Chen (L) with 2%, Aaron Aauer (C) with 1%
- ^ Content Manager WebDrawer – 2018 General Election Official Results
External links
edit- Official campaign websites