1998 Philippine presidential election
The 1998 Philippine presidential and vice presidential elections were held on May 11, 1998. In the presidential election, Vice President Joseph Estrada won a six-year term as President by a landslide victory. In the vice-presidential race, Senator Gloria Macapagal Arroyo won a six-year term as Vice President, also by a landslide victory. This was the third election where both the president and vice president came from different parties.
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| Turnout | 86.5%  11.0% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Presidential election results per province. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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1998 Philippine vice presidential election | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Map showing the official results taken from provincial and city certificates of canvass. The inset shows Metro Manila. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Background
editAt the tail-end of the presidency of Fidel V. Ramos, several politicians have been jockeying for the nomination of his Lakas-NUCD-UMDP party. This included Speaker Jose de Venecia Jr., Defense Secretary Renato de Villa, and Cebu Governor Lito Osmeña.
The Lakas nominee is widely expected to face Vice President Joseph Estrada, who had been leading candidate in the various opinion polls. Estrada had earlier declared in 1992 that he will not run for president, stating that he intends to retire when he reaches the age of 60 in 1998,[1] but he later recanted this decision.
Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago, who considered herself to have been cheated out of the presidency by Ramos in 1992, was also expected to run again.
Former First Lady Imelda Marcos was also seen to run for the presidency. She was banking on the support of loyalists of deposed president Ferdinand Marcos.
Senator Leticia Ramos-Shahani initially sought to run for president, launching her campaign on July 6, 1997, in Pasig City with Lito Osmeña as her running mate,[2][3] but she eventually decided to back out and run for Governor of Pangasinan instead.[4]
Senator Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, who had topped the 1995 Senate election, was also seen to be a strong contender to the presidency, founding the Kabalikat ng Malayang Pilipino party, with Tito Sotto, who himself topped the 1992 Senate election, widely seen to be her vice presidential running mate.
Senator Raul Roco, who had a noteworthy Senate career up to this point, had the strong backing of the youth via his Aksyon Demokratiko party.
The Lakas convention nominated de Venecia, Ramos handpicked successor. This led to de Villa and Osmeña bolting from Lakas and setting up their own parties. De Venecia picked Arroyo as his running mate.
The Liberal Party nominated Manila mayor Alfredo Lim. Meanwhile, the Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino (LDP), Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) and Estrada's own Partido ng Masang Pilipino (the forerunner of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino) established an electoral pact and formed the Laban ng Makabayang Masang Pilipino. Estrada chose Senator Edgardo Angara of the LDP as his running mate.
Weeks before election day, Marcos withdrew from the election. Estrada had widened his lead among other candidates at this point.
Candidates
editLakas nomination
editThere are three candidates who seek the nomination of Lakas–NUCD, they are House Speaker Jose De Venecia, Defense Secretary Renato "Rene" de Villa, and Bulacan Governor Roberto "Obet" Pagdanganan. De Villa was confident to be selected by the party, as like President Fidel Ramos, he is also a former constabulary general. But in a party meeting, the party selected de Venecia as their nominee for president. De Villa bolted to form Partido Reporma.[5]
Opinion polling
editOpinion polling, commonly known as "surveys" in the Philippines were administered primarily by Social Weather Stations in 1998.
The tables below graph the last three surveys conducted.
For president
edit
| Pollster | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Margin of error | de Venecia | de Villa | Defensor Santiago | Dumlao | Estrada | Lim | Marcos | Morato | Osmeña | Ponce Enrile | Roco | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWS | Apr 8–16[6] | 1,500 | ±3% | 12 | 5 | 4 | 0.3 |
30 |
13 | 2 | 0.2 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| Mar 16–21[7] | 1,500 | ±3% | 14 | 5 | 7 | 0.4 |
28 |
14 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 7 | |
| Feb 21–27[8] | 1,500 | ±3% | 12 | 6 | 5 | 0.1 |
28 |
14 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 13 | 0.9 | 9 | 10 |
For vice president
edit
| Pollster | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Margin of error | Angara | Macapagal Arroyo | Orbos | Osmeña | Pacheco | Sabio | Santiago | Sueño | Tatad | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWS | Apr 8–16[6] | 1,500 | ±3% | 16 |
45 |
8 | 14 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| Mar 16–21[7] | 1,500 | ±3% | 12 |
47 |
6 | 18 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | |
| Feb 21–27[8] | 1,500 | ±3% | 13 |
44 |
5 | 14 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
Results
editThe 10th Congress canvassed the votes in joint session for a number of days before declaring Estrada and Arroyo as the winners; with Senate President Neptali Gonzales and Speaker De Venecia announcing the victors.
While the official canvassing did not start a fortnight after Election Day, the National Movement for Free Elections (NAMFREL) held a parallel and unofficial quick count which was released days after the election and was updated at irregular intervals. NAMFREL based their tally from the seventh copy of the election returns given to them.
In theory, the totals for the official canvassing (derived from the certificates of canvass, which are then derived from the election returns) and the completed NAMFREL quick count should be equal.
For president
editEstrada carried the majority of the provinces, his hometown of San Juan City, and Metro Manila.
De Venecia carried his home province of Pangasinan as well as Siquijor, Roco carried his home province of Camarines Sur and the rest of the Bicol Region (excluding Masbate), and Osmeña got his foothold over his home province of Cebu and other provinces in the South.
Other candidates also carried their home provinces such as De Villa of Batangas, Enrile of Cagayan, and Defensor Santiago of Iloilo Province, as well as the neighboring province of Guimaras. Lim was the only major candidate who did not carry any provinces (with the exception of Batanes) and failed to capture his hometown of Manila.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Estrada | Laban ng Makabayang Masang Pilipino | 10,722,295 | 39.86 | |
| Jose de Venecia Jr. | Lakas–NUCD–UMDP | 4,268,483 | 15.87 | |
| Raul Roco | Aksyon Demokratiko | 3,720,212 | 13.83 | |
| Lito Osmeña | PROMDI | 3,347,631 | 12.44 | |
| Alfredo Lim | Liberal Party | 2,344,362 | 8.71 | |
| Renato de Villa | Partido para sa Demokratikong Reporma–Lapiang Manggagawa | 1,308,352 | 4.86 | |
| Miriam Defensor Santiago | People's Reform Party | 797,206 | 2.96 | |
| Juan Ponce Enrile | Independent | 343,139 | 1.28 | |
| Santiago Dumlao | Kilusan para sa Pambansang Pagpapanibago | 32,212 | 0.12 | |
| Manuel Morato | Partido Bansang Marangal | 18,644 | 0.07 | |
| Total | 26,902,536 | 100.00 | ||
| Valid votes | 26,902,536 | 91.86 | ||
| Invalid/blank votes[a] | 2,383,239 | 8.14 | ||
| Total votes | 29,285,775 | 100.00 | ||
| Registered voters/turnout | 33,873,665 | 86.46 | ||
| Source: Nohlen, Grotz, Hartmann, Hasall and Santos[9] | ||||
- ^ Includes 232,714 votes for Imelda Marcos (Kilusang Bagong Lipunan) who withdrew after the ballots were printed.
NAMFREL quick count
editTake note that Manuel Morato had a higher number of votes in the NAMFREL quick count than in the official congressional canvass.
| Candidate | Party | Results | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Diff* | |||
| Joseph Estrada | LAMMP | 8,239,823 | 39.47% | −0.39% | |
| Jose de Venecia | Lakas | 3,247,067 | 15.55% | −0.32% | |
| Raul Roco | Aksyon | 2,923,842 | 14.00% | 0.17% | |
| Emilio Osmeña | PROMDI | 2,454,432 | 11.76% | −0.68% | |
| Alfredo Lim | Liberal | 1,815,664 | 8.70% | −0.01% | |
| Renato de Villa | Reporma | 1,028,854 | 4.93% | 0.07% | |
| Miriam Defensor Santiago | PRP | 584,633 | 2.80% | −0.16% | |
| Juan Ponce Enrile | Independent | 297,801 | 1.43% | 0.15% | |
| Imelda Marcos (withdrew) | KBL | 232,714 | 1.11% | N/A | |
| Santiago Dumlao | Kilusan para sa Pambansang Pagpapanibago | 29,327 | 0.14% | 0.02% | |
| Manuel Morato | Partido Bansang Marangal | 23,208 | 0.07% | 0.04% | |
| Votes | 20,877,365 | 100.00% | — | ||
*Difference from the NAMFREL quick count from the official congressional canvass.
Voter demographics
edit| Demographic subgroup | Estrada | de Venecia | Roco | Osmeña | Other | % of total vote |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total vote | 39 | 16 | 13 | 12 | 20 | 100 |
| NCR | 33 | 11 | 28 | 4 | 24 | 9 |
| CAR | 47 | 24 | 12 | 0 | 17 | 5 |
| Region I - Ilocos | 33 | 61 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| Region II - Cagayan | 44 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 38 | 5 |
| Region III - Central Luzon | 50 | 15 | 17 | 1 | 17 | 7 |
| Region IV - Southern Tagalog | 45 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 32 | 12 |
| Region V - Bicol | 14 | 8 | 75 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| Region VI - Western Visayas | 40 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 36 | 9 |
| Region VII - Central Visayas | 20 | 12 | 5 | 52 | 11 | 7 |
| Region VIII - Eastern Visayas | 48 | 18 | 1 | 23 | 10 | 4 |
| Region IX - Western Mindanao | 39 | 19 | 4 | 20 | 18 | 6 |
| Region X - Northern Mindanao | 33 | 20 | 3 | 31 | 13 | 5 |
| Region XI - Southern Mindanao | 44 | 12 | 3 | 30 | 11 | 8 |
| Region XII - Central Mindanao | 52 | 18 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 6 |
| ARMM | 63 | 25 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 |
Source: Exit polls conducted by Social Weather Stations on May 12, 100% total (margin of error: 1.3%)[11]
For vice-president
editArroyo also carried most of the provinces including her home province of Pampanga. Other candidates also carried their home provinces such as Angara of Aurora, and Quezon being mother province, Orbos of Pangasinan, Tatad of Catanduanes and Sueno of South Cotabato.
Only Osmeña of Cebu failed to capture the votes of their home provinces.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gloria Macapagal Arroyo | Lakas–NUCD–UMDP | 12,667,252 | 49.56 | |
| Edgardo Angara | Laban ng Makabayang Masang Pilipino | 5,652,068 | 22.11 | |
| Oscar Orbos | Partido para sa Demokratikong Reporma–Lapiang Manggagawa | 3,321,779 | 13.00 | |
| Serge Osmeña | Liberal Party | 2,351,462 | 9.20 | |
| Francisco Tatad | Grand Alliance for Democracy | 745,389 | 2.92 | |
| Ismael Sueno | PROMDI | 537,677 | 2.10 | |
| Irene Santiago | Aksyon Demokratiko | 240,210 | 0.94 | |
| Camilo Sabio | Partido Bansang Marangal | 22,010 | 0.09 | |
| Reynaldo Pacheco | Kilusan para sa Pambansang Pagpapanibago | 21,422 | 0.08 | |
| Total | 25,559,269 | 100.00 | ||
| Valid votes | 25,559,269 | 87.28 | ||
| Invalid/blank votes | 3,726,506 | 12.72 | ||
| Total votes | 29,285,775 | 100.00 | ||
| Registered voters/turnout | 33,873,665 | 86.46 | ||
NAMFREL quick count
editTake note that Reynaldo Pacheco had a higher number of votes in the NAMFREL quick count than the official congressional canvass.
| Candidate | Party | Results | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Diff* | |||
| Gloria Macapagal Arroyo | Lakas | 9,624,397 | 48.85% | −0.71% | |
| Edgardo Angara | LDP | 4,380,991 | 22.24% | 0.13 | |
| Oscar Orbos | Reporma | 2,651,184 | 13.46% | 0.46 | |
| Sergio Osmeña III | Liberal | 1,183,998 | 9.21% | 0.01 | |
| Francisco Tatad | PRP/Gabay Bayan | 582,548 | 2.96% | 0.05 | |
| Ismael Sueno | PROMDI | 409,966 | 2.08% | −0.02 | |
| Irene Santiago | Aksyon | 196,386 | 1.00% | 0.07 | |
| Reynaldo Pacheco | Kilusan para sa Pambansang Pagpapanibago | 23,107 | 0.12% | 0.04 | |
| Camilo Sabio | Partido Bansang Marangal | 19,555 | 0.10% | 0.01 | |
| Votes | 19,702,132 | 100.00% | — | ||
*Difference from the NAMFREL quick count from the official congressional canvass.
Voter demographics
edit| Demographic subgroup | Arroyo | Angara | Orbos | Osmeña | Other | % of total vote |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total vote | 50 | 21 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 100 |
| NCR | 32 | 21 | 33 | 12 | 2 | 9 |
| CAR | 60 | 19 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| Region I - Ilocos | 53 | 15 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Region II - Cagayan | 62 | 26 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| Region III - Central Luzon | 66 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| Region IV - Southern Tagalog | 45 | 29 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 12 |
| Region V - Bicol | 48 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 5 |
| Region VI - Western Visayas | 46 | 28 | 4 | 15 | 7 | 9 |
| Region VII - Central Visayas | 45 | 17 | 2 | 25 | 11 | 7 |
| Region VIII - Eastern Visayas | 67 | 18 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 4 |
| Region IX - Western Mindanao | 59 | 18 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 6 |
| Region X - Northern Mindanao | 58 | 21 | 3 | 16 | 2 | 5 |
| Region XI - Southern Mindanao | 50 | 20 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 8 |
| Region XII - Central Mindanao | 56 | 21 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 6 |
| ARMM | 58 | 30 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
Source: Exit polls conducted by Social Weather Stations on May 12, 100% total (margin of error: 1.4%)[12]
See also
editNotes
editReferences
edit- ^ Maragay, Fel V. (August 25, 1992). "Would'ya believe: Erap's not running in '98". Manila Standard. Kamahalan Publishing Corp. p. 3. Retrieved October 16, 2021.
- ^ Macaspac, Joem N. (July 6, 1997). "Letty launches presidential candidacy today". Manila Standard. Kamahalan Publishing Corp. p. 1. Retrieved June 15, 2023.
- ^ Maragay, Fel V. (July 7, 1997). "Shahani declares bid for presidency". Manila Standard. Kamahalan Publishing Corp. p. 1. Retrieved June 15, 2023.
- ^ Azarcon-dela Cruz, Pennie (March 26, 2017). "Leticia Ramos-Shahani: The accidental politician". Inquirer News. INQUIRER.net. Retrieved June 15, 2023.
...lost her bid for the governor's post in Pangasinan in 1998.
- ^ Diaz, Jess (June 12, 2001). "Roco, De Villa back JDV opponents". Philstar.com. Retrieved 2024-10-05.
- ^ a b "ERAP'S LEAD STRENGTHENS AS LIM, OSMEÃ'A, JDV TIE FOR 2ND". SWS.org.ph. 1998-04-22.
- ^ a b "ERAP LEADS LIM AND JDV BY 28-14; GLORIA HITS 47". SWS.org.ph. 1998-03-23.
- ^ a b "ERAP'S LEAD UNCHANGED; GLORIA'S LEAD WIDENS". SWS.org.ph. 1998-03-05.
- ^ Dieter Nohlen; Florian Grotz; Christof Hartmann; Graham Hassall; Soliman M. Santos.
Elections in Asia and the Pacific: A Data Handbook: Volume II: South East Asia, East Asia, and the South Pacific. - ^ a b "Report on the Philippine General Elections 1998" (PDF). NAMFREL.com.ph. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 30, 2021. Retrieved March 17, 2011.
- ^ "COMPARING SWS EXIT POLL RESULTS WITH NAMFREL COUNT BY REGION". Archived from the original on March 4, 2016.
- ^ "VICE-PRESIDENTIAL VOTES FOR THE MAY 11, 1998 ELECTIONS: SWS Day-of-Election 'Exit Poll'". Archived from the original on September 24, 2015.