R. Conrad Leslie Jr. (1923 – December 25, 2018) was an American businessman and crop forecaster, described by The New York Times as "the nation's leading private harvest forecaster".[1] His monthly corn, soybean, and wheat production estimates were very influential, and his opinions were well-regarded by various news outlets.[2][3] The majority of interest in his daily price interpretations and daily market observations came from brokers and their clients such as Thomson McKinnon and ADM Investors Services.[4][5] He died in December 2018 at the age of 95.[6][7]
Early life
editConrad Leslie was born in Springfield, Ohio, and raised in Xenia, Ohio.[8] Before World War II, Leslie studied in the pre-med program at Miami University in Oxford, Ohio. During the war, at age 21, he became a B-24 bomber pilot and flew 35 missions over Germany. For this, he was awarded the Distinguished Flying Cross and the Air Medal with three clusters.[4]
When he returned to school, he felt too old to stay on the pre-med track and switched to banking and finance. While At Miami University, Conrad became a member of the Alpha chapter of Beta Theta Pi.[9]
Finance career
editAfter graduating in 1947, Leslie became a salesman for Procter & Gamble. When Merrill Lynch announced it would be starting a program to bring Wall Street to the rest of the country, Leslie quickly joined the program. He qualified for Merrill Lynch broker training and after a year of study on Wall Street was assigned to its Columbus office.[10] Soon after his placement in the Columbus office, he became impatient with the dormant stock market. He noticed that a greater challenge was the daily price activity in the grain futures market. In addition to this problem, there was a need to educate farmers on how to hedge their crops.
Leslie moved to Chicago and there, during his fifty years in the business world, appraised the overnight news and then wrote a pre-opening market letter to the brokers at four different New York Stock Exchange Member firms.[10]
Leslie's collection of market wisdom and experiences was presented to the financial world via his book Conrad Leslie's Guide for Successful Speculation, Stocks, Commodities, Gold. The Chicago Tribune's financial editor presented a series of excerpts from this book for ten Sundays.[11]
In 1961, he felt that the first-of-the-month crop production farmer-based estimates issued by the United States Department of Agriculture on the 10th of the month were too delayed to enable efficient agribusiness marketing decisions. He developed his own faster released production estimates by using card reports received from 3,000 grain elevator managers.[12]
At the request of the Nixon White House, and recommendation from Senator Hubert Humphrey, Conrad Leslie conducted a special survey to estimate the size of the coming U.S. wheat harvest before the Russian wheat sale was granted by Washington. His presented supply and demand projection was very helpful to the country because it indicated that the approaching U.S. harvest would permit the sale with Russia.[13]
Another notable contribution of Leslie's was his influential writings, which were instrumental in legislation that allowed Americans to own gold. Back when gold was priced at $35 an ounce, Leslie noted the French were taking our gold from Fort Knox. Through his writings to 2,000 elevator managers and regular farmland press, radio, and television interviews, he was persistently among those who called on Congress to pass the bill that would allow Americans to own gold.[citation needed] President Nixon, with support of Senator Jacob K. Javits and Congressman Phil Crane, lifted the ban on August 15, 1975.[14]
Legacy
editAt his 40-year anniversary as a member of the Chicago Board of Trade, he was awarded a special plaque by the organization. When he retired at age 78, on behalf of the Senate Agriculture Committee, Senators Lugar and Harkin thanked him via letter for his 40 years of service to American Agribusiness. The City of Xenia recently selected him to be a citizen of the year.[when?]
Works
edit- Leslie, Conrad (1970). Conrad Leslie's Guide for successful speculating: stocks, commodities, gold. Dartnell. ISBN 978-0850130294.
- Leslie, Conrad (2017). Tolles, Jamie (ed.). Conrad Leslie's 12 Laws For Selecting a Stock. Independently published. ISBN 978-1521008591.
- Leslie, Conrad (2018). Tolles, Jamie (ed.). 30 Tips for Better Investing. Independently published. ISBN 978-0692075654.
References
edit- ^ "BUSINESS PEOPLE; Crop Forecaster Is Market Maverick". The New York Times. September 19, 1983. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved February 25, 2017.
- ^ "Gettysburg Times". August 10, 1984. Retrieved November 3, 2017.
- ^ Maidenberg, H.J. (June 29, 1981). "Commodities; Qualifying Corn Yield Forecasts". New York Times. Retrieved November 3, 2017.
- ^ a b Sykora, Allen. "Conrad Leslie Enjoys Taking "World's Pulse"". Jim Wyckoff on the markets. Archived from the original on March 5, 2017. Retrieved November 3, 2017.
- ^ Sloane, Leonard (August 9, 1979). "Master of crop forecasts". New York Times. Retrieved November 3, 2017.
- ^ "Remembering R. Conrad Leslie". Archived from the original on January 4, 2019. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ R. Conrad Leslie, Jr. obituary
- ^ "Xenia educators' group to induct 5 into Hall of Honor". January 26, 2006. Archived from the original on March 6, 2017.
{{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires|journal=(help) - ^ "Famous Business Betas". South Bay/Long Beach Beta Alumni Association. April 28, 2013. Retrieved February 25, 2017.
- ^ a b Bernstein, Jacob (January 1, 1994). Market masters : how successful traders think, trade and invest and how you can too!. Dearborn Financial Pub. ISBN 9780793105878. OCLC 891955459.
- ^ "A New Guide for Successful Investing (June 21, 1970)". Retrieved February 25, 2017.(Subscription required.)
- ^ "Forecaster Can Name That Tune". tribunedigital-chicagotribune. Retrieved February 25, 2017.
- ^ Newsweek. Newsweek. 1980.
- ^ Kollen Ghizoni, Sandra. "Nixon Ends Convertibility of U.S. Dollars to Gold and Announces Wage/Price Controls". Federal Reserve History. Archived from the original on February 19, 2016. Retrieved March 2, 2018.