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2008 United States Senate election in South Dakota

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The 2008 United States Senate election in South Dakota was held on November 4, 2008. Primary elections were held on June 3, 2008.[1] Incumbent Senator Tim Johnson won re-election to a third term. As of 2024, this election alongside the simultaneous House race is the last time a Democrat won a statewide election in South Dakota. This is the last time that a Senate candidate and a presidential candidate of different political parties simultaneously won South Dakota.

2008 United States Senate election in South Dakota
← 2002 November 4, 2008 2014 →
 
Nominee Tim Johnson Joel Dykstra
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 237,835 142,766
Percentage 62.49% 37.51%
Johnson:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Dykstra:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Tie:      50%
U.S. senator before election

Tim Johnson
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Tim Johnson
Democratic

Background

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In 2002, Tim Johnson was re-elected by a narrow margin of 527 votes, the closest senate contest in the country that cycle.[2] Two years later, Republicans flipped the state's other senate seat, ousting then Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle.[3] Heading into 2008, the seat was poised to be a heavily contested one, and Republicans saw as a strong potential flip.[4]

But the race would be upended on December 13, 2006, when Senator Johnson was hospitalized with what was later revealed to be a brain hemorrhage.[5][6] This immediately shook up the state of the race, and dashed much of the discourse surrounding it for a time.[7] On the Democratic side, there was uncertainty if Johnson would be able to return to the Senate, and speculation surrounded whether Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin, the state's at-large Congresswoman, would run in his place.[8][9]

However, by all accounts, Johnson still intended to run for re-election as long as his health kept improving, and prominent Democrats such as Harry Reid and Ted Kennedy held fundraisers for Johnson.[9] After a 9-month absence, Johnson returned to the Senate in August 2007, and was back to his duties as Senator in September 2007.[10] One month later, Johnson ended all speculation, by announcing his bid for re-election.[11]

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Declined

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Campaign

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Republican efforts for recruitment were frustrated by Johnson's situation and the sympathy boost that came with it.[15] Significant hope was given to the possibility of recruiting second term governor Mike Rounds to run against Johnson, but Rounds showed little interest.[12] Lt. Governor Dennis Daugaard, who was wealthy and could self fund, was also sought, but he was planning a gubernatorial bid for 2010.[12] On July 5, 2007, Joel Dykstra, a state representative, entered but he was seen as having long odds and as not a top-tier candidate.[16][17]

Results

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Republican primary results[18]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Joel Dykstra 34,598 65.74%
Republican Sam Kephart 13,047 24.79%
Republican Charles Gonyo 4,983 9.47%
Total votes 52,628 100.00%

General election

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Candidates

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Campaign

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Already a well-regarded figure, following health problems, Johnson became more popular. "South Dakota is a very kind state," Steve Jarding, a Harvard political scientist who ran Johnson's campaign, said. "People were rooting for Tim—Democrats, Republicans, independents—they wanted him to be O.K.[4]" He was also seen a pragmatic moderate. He received endorsements from the Republican Mayor of Sioux Falls, Dave Munson, and the NRA Political Victory Fund.[19] Johnson also received the endorsement of former Senator Larry Pressler, who Johnson beat in 1996.[20][21]

Dykstra argued that Johnson voted 80% of the time with U.S. Senator Barack Obama and 90% with U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. In response, Johnson pointed out his votes on the confirmation of U.S. Supreme Court justices John Roberts/Samuel Alito, against flag burning, in favor for the Iraq War, Patriot Act, a ban on partial birth abortion, etc.[22]

Dykstra tried to turn the race around by comparing Johnson to Larry Pressler in 1996, and that Dykstra would work better with the state's other senator.[23] Dykstra also focused on high gas prices, highlighting his experience in the energy industry, and a focus on alternate energy sources.[24] But Johnson's popularity and sympathy proved to be the main factor, giving him a large amount of sympathy vote.[25]

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[26] Likely D October 23, 2008
CQ Politics[27] Safe D October 31, 2008
Rothenberg Political Report[28] Safe D November 2, 2008
Real Clear Politics[29] Safe D November 4, 2008

Polling

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Poll Source Dates administered Tim
Johnson (D) 		Joel
Dykstra (R)
Rasmussen Reports[30] March 4, 2008 63% 28%
Rasmussen Reports[31] July 15, 2008 60% 38%

Results

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While John McCain won the state comfortably, Johnson easily won re-election to a third term, losing in only four counties. His friend and fellow Democrat, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin easily won re-election to South Dakota's at-large congressional district.[32]

General election results[33]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Tim Johnson (incumbent) 237,889 62.49% +12.87%
Republican Joel Dykstra 142,784 37.51% −11.96%
Total votes 380,673 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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See also

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References

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  1. ^ Horrigan, Marie (March 18, 2008). "Sen. Johnson Rated Safe as Recruiting Woes Hurt GOP". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on November 8, 2008. Retrieved November 7, 2008.
  2. ^ Alvarez, Lizette (November 7, 2002). "THE 2002 ELECTIONS: SOUTH DAKOTA; Democrat Leads Slightly In Senate Race". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on April 12, 2013. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
  3. ^ "CNN.com - Thune unseats Senate minority leader Daschle - Nov 3, 2004". www.cnn.com. November 3, 2004. Archived from the original on March 18, 2005. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
  4. ^ a b Johnson, Dirk; Herszenhorn, David (October 23, 2008). "In South Dakota Race, Gauging the Impact of a Senator's Health". The New York Times. Archived from the original on August 10, 2018. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
  5. ^ Zernike, Kate (December 13, 2006). "South Dakota Senator Is Hospitalized". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on January 25, 2021. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
  6. ^ ABC News. "Sen. Tim Johnson's Second Chance at Life and Work". ABC News. Archived from the original on September 6, 2007. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
  7. ^ Staff, C. Q. (January 26, 2007). "Democrats Strategize to Hold On to 12 Senate Seats Up in 2008 - New York Times". archive.nytimes.com. Archived from the original on August 31, 2023. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
  8. ^ Rothenberg, Stuart (September 7, 2007). "In 2008 Election Cycle, How Bad Is Bad for Senate Republicans?". Roll Call. Archived from the original on January 22, 2021. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
  9. ^ a b Staff, C. Q.; Quarterly, Congressional (April 10, 2007). "Johnson's Political Future Stirs Speculation — And Fundraising - New York Times". archive.nytimes.com. Archived from the original on August 31, 2023. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
  10. ^ Hearn, Josephine (September 5, 2007). "Johnson returns, deeply changed by illness". POLITICO. Archived from the original on November 27, 2021. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
  11. ^ Davey, Monica (October 20, 2007). "Recuperating Senator Says He'll Seek Re-election". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on June 5, 2015. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
  12. ^ a b c d Drucker, David M. (October 19, 2007). "Johnson to Seek Third Senate Term". Roll Call. Archived from the original on October 27, 2020. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
  13. ^ Roll Call Staff (May 10, 2007). "Herseth's Path to Another Term a Little Less Dusty". Roll Call. Archived from the original on September 27, 2020. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
  14. ^ Blake, Aaron (July 5, 2007). "Republican enters race for ill senator's seat". The Hill. Archived from the original on August 31, 2023. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
  15. ^ Drucker, David M. (May 21, 2007). "South Dakota '08 Jockeying Begins". Roll Call. Archived from the original on February 28, 2021. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
  16. ^ Horrigan, Marie; Quarterly, Congressional. "South Dakota Sen. Johnson Draws Foe With Record — But Not Star Power - New York Times". archive.nytimes.com. Archived from the original on August 31, 2023. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
  17. ^ Judis, John (August 31, 2007). "Red Dawn: 2008 Will be a Great Election for Democrats in the Senate". Carnegie Endowment for National Peace. Archived from the original on May 2, 2023. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
  18. ^ "2008 South Dakota Official Primary Election Results". June 3, 2008. Archived from the original on May 15, 2011. Retrieved May 18, 2011.
  19. ^ "Joel Dykstra on Gun Control Republican Challenger". On The Issues. Archived from the original on July 25, 2008. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  20. ^ Kraushaar, Josh (October 27, 2008). "Tim Johnson endorsed by former GOP rival - - POLITICO.com". www.politico.com. Archived from the original on April 25, 2015. Retrieved August 29, 2023.
  21. ^ Woster, Kevin (October 26, 2008). "Pressler endorses Sen. Johnson, the man who beat him in 1996". Rapid City Journal. Archived from the original on August 29, 2023. Retrieved August 29, 2023.
  22. ^ Kevin Woster (October 19, 2008). "Johnson campaigns on cash, Dykstra wants change". Rapid City Journal. Lee Enterprises. Archived from the original on August 15, 2010. Retrieved August 2, 2023.(subscription required)
  23. ^ "Dykstra compares his race to Johnson vs. Pressler race". Mitchell Republic. August 1, 2008. Archived from the original on August 31, 2023. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
  24. ^ Hetland, Cara (June 4, 2008). "S.D. Sen. Tim Johnson has a Republican challenger". MPR News. Archived from the original on December 5, 2021. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
  25. ^ ABC News. "S.D. Democrats pin hopes on popular senator". ABC News. Archived from the original on December 5, 2009. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
  26. ^ "2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  27. ^ Race Ratings Chart: Senate Archived October 28, 2010, at the Wayback Machine CQ Politics
  28. ^ "2008 Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  29. ^ "2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
  30. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  31. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  32. ^ "South Dakota - Election Results 2008 - The New York Times". www.nytimes.com. Archived from the original on February 1, 2017. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
  33. ^ "Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives".
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