Talk:2015 Venezuelan parliamentary election

Latest 2015 polls

@Yeah 93: Is this the same as the other July poll that you placed already?--ZiaLater (talk) 04:07, 15 August 2015 (UTC)

Yes, that's the same. But this article doesn't cite the likely voters' numbers. --yeah_93 (talk) 04:37, 15 August 2015 (UTC)

@Yeah 93: Ok, thanks for checking. If you can find more polls I will try to make a graph.--ZiaLater (talk) 07:07, 15 August 2015 (UTC)

There seems to be more on the spanish version of this page. Øln (talk) 08:08, 15 August 2015 (UTC)

@Øln: I will take a look but I will have to be careful since the Venezuelan government uses fake polls occasionally.--ZiaLater (talk) 08:25, 15 August 2015 (UTC)

I took a look and most of it looks good, though some polls had to be averaged because there were more than one by an organization in one month. Thank you.--ZiaLater (talk) 09:17, 15 August 2015 (UTC)

Missing polls

Here is one from Datanalisis stating that in March according to Datanalisis, "opposition candidates have 59.6% of the voting intentions in parliamentary" while it is "22.5% for government candidates". I know there are missing polls from the Spanish article but are there more missing polls? This one wasn't shown in both articles. We can do Google searches such as "encuestas para elecciones parlamentarias venezuela" or such for each month just to get a better picture of the polls.--ZiaLater (talk) 02:13, 22 August 2015 (UTC)

Here is the Spanish article.--ZiaLater (talk) 02:19, 22 August 2015 (UTC)

I try to include every poll I find. If you find more, you could include them. --yeah_93 (talk) 05:20, 23 August 2015 (UTC)

I will try to add some from the Spanish article but there are a lot. If you could, make some corrections if needed.--ZiaLater (talk) 14:01, 29 August 2015 (UTC)

God that ICS poll... "sample of 500 per state". That's just wonderful, I'm sure you'll obtain the great results polling the same amount of people from places like Carabobo (pop. 2.4 mil) and Barinas (pop. less than 1mil). Jesus. --yeah_93 (talk) 04:06, 30 August 2015 (UTC)

ICS is kind of a joke. The government has been using their own polling organizations for awhile now. By the way, thank you for that Hinterlaces poll, I will fix that graph now.--ZiaLater (talk) 04:21, 31 August 2015 (UTC)

There is a new Hercón poll. It includes a breakdown per state, but it doesn't include the national average, so I can't include it in the chart. http://barometropolitico.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/6-Analisis-integral-Hercon-Agosto-2015-1.pdf --yeah_93 (talk) 00:55, 2 September 2015 (UTC)

@Yeah 93: Can you just average each state or would that be OR of some sort?--ZiaLater (talk) 00:35, 3 September 2015 (UTC)

No. We don't know the base for each state. --yeah_93 (talk) 01:13, 3 September 2015 (UTC)

@Yeah 93: Could you check the source I used and the data I put in? Just want to make sure were both on the same page.--ZiaLater (talk) 06:27, 16 September 2015 (UTC)

I'll take a look when I can. --yeah_93 (talk) 00:05, 18 September 2015 (UTC)

Popular Vote

How about some data showing the popular vote, since it's often at such odds with seat counts in these plurality/partial-plurality systems? — Preceding unsigned comment added by Chriswiltse (talk • contribs) 23:06, 7 December 2015 (UTC)

@Chriswiltse: AFAIK the figures aren't available yet. The CNE website is not being updated very frequently... Number 57 23:12, 7 December 2015 (UTC)

Indigenous members

Some editors have repeatedly upped the MUD seat total to 112 based on the claim that the indigenous members are MUD members, which is backed up by this. However, several other sources I have seen (e.g. this or this) state that they are supporters of or aligned with the MUD, which suggests they are not actually members. Can anyone clarify this? The CNE website does not list the party affiliation of the indigenous winners. Number 57 15:39, 10 December 2015 (UTC)

The CNE does identify their party affiliation. It's just that those parties aren't exactly part of the other national parties since they have to run on indigenous tickets. The 3 indigenous deputies elected belong to parties backed by the MUD, while the ones backed by the PSUV lost. They aren't official members of the MUD, but since they are their allies, their seats are added to the MUD's total. --yeah_93 (talk) 15:54, 10 December 2015 (UTC)

If they are not MUD members, they shouldn't be included in the total (even if the parties they are members of support the MUD). In the UK we have a similar situation with the Northern Irish parties UUP and the SDLP, who align themselves with the Conservatives and Labour respectively, but are not included in their seat totals.

Where are the parties identified? I only see candidate names. Number 57 16:07, 10 December 2015 (UTC)

Click on the candidate's name and the parties should show up. Conive, Parlinve, Miazulia are some of the names. But yeah, I think it's just a technicality. They may not be elected as part of the MUD per se, but they'll vote with them, giving them the numbers needed for the supermajority; which, in the end, is what matters to the opposition. I don't think it matters that much which numbers we put here. Let's just leave it how the CNE put it (109 MUD, 55 PSUV) and leave it at that. Whatever.--yeah_93 (talk) 16:25, 10 December 2015 (UTC)

Agreed, and make sure that the data presented is consistent between the infobox and the table. Maswimelleu (talk) 16:58, 10 December 2015 (UTC)

Polls section, after the election

Now that the election is over and we have the results, does it still make sense to keep the polls there? Hamsterlopithecus (talk) 19:52, 12 December 2015 (UTC)

PSUV or GPP

I have reverted the edits to the results table for the nth time for two main reasons:

1. The CNE sources quite clearly say PSUV rather than GPP in detailing the results
2. The entire article refers only to the PSUV (with the exception of a detail in the infobox), and listing GPP in the results table is undoubtedly confusing to the reader.

In order for GPP to go into the results table we need (a) reliable sources stating that the results are for the GPP as a whole, not just the PSUV, and (b) the rest of the article to be amended.

Please discuss rather than continue reverting. Thanks, Number 57 14:56, 23 December 2015 (UTC)

Several sources from here are attributing 52 seats to the PSUV, and 55 to the GPP in total. 2 of the remaining seats are Communist, one is from Republican Vanguard. See this segment of the article on the Spanish article here. Here's a graphic showing the results with MUD and GPP broken down into their constituent parties. Furthermore, consider a quote from this article. I machine translated it for convinience. It says: "On this occasion the sum opposition 7,707,422 votes which equates to 56.2 % of the votes obtained 112 deputies ( 67 % ) , while the Great Patriotic Pole with 5,599,025 votes representing 40.8 % of the total vote valid in the country issued 32.93 % of the total seats allocated in parliamentary elections remains with 55 deputies." Maswimelleu (talk) 15:40, 23 December 2015 (UTC)

Thanks. That was actually going to be my second question – where are the current figures sourced from. Those figures you quote are not the same ones we have in the table. The breakdown of seats is very helpful though. Number 57 15:48, 23 December 2015 (UTC)

They may be results before a few remaining votes were counted. The infobox on the Spanish article probably has the most reliable figures, haven't checked their source for that one yet. I propose that we change most references to the PSUV on the article to GPP and work with that. The figures need to be standardised to this new set of sources. I'm sure either of us can do this fairly quickly, although I think the results table should be set up to display the member parties of each alliance underneath an alliance total. I have no idea how best to do that, the most relevant example I can think of is how the results for the constituent parties of Podemos are set out in the results table for the 2015 Spanish General Election. Maswimelleu (talk) 15:51, 23 December 2015 (UTC)

Hi. Those results are from a CNE bulletin the CNE gave to the parties. They were sent on election date, when all the votes hadn't been counted. I summed the results myself after they were updated on the CNE page (the sum of all the list votes by state) and those are the numbers I put here in the page. --yeah_93 (talk) 16:03, 23 December 2015 (UTC)

The issue here is that the Venezuelan election system could create some confusion. The PSUV totals that the CNE published in their site could be only the votes that people gave explicitly to that party (clicking the card with the PSUV party logo on the electronic ballot), but you can also have to notice that the same candidates had the support from a number of smaller parties (including the Communist Party [PCV], Fatherland for All [PPT], etc.) that had their own party logos on the ballot. Given that case, a candidate (or list of candidates) could receive some "PSUV votes", "PCV votes", "PPT votes", that were all counted as a total (indeed, in the CNE results webpage you could see the total of a candidate, and when you click on the candidate name the site displays the results by the party that voters clicked when they voted). Therefore, there's no clarity if the total results given are only for the "PSUV votes", the total of votes of the parties that support the same candidates (the GPP itself), or none of the above. I hope that this explanation could clarify the issue. Regards. --Sfs90 (talk) 18:19, 24 December 2015 (UTC)

Calling Number 57, I could use your second opinion on the table - it seems to look odd on my second browser, but fine on the first. It needs aligning to work correctly. Maswimelleu (talk) 19:16, 24 December 2015 (UTC)

@Maswimelleu: I've fixed it. The colour column was 10px wide, plus another 1px for the cell wall, so you need to ensure that the width of the header row is 10+1+party column width.

@Yeah 93 and Sfs90: Are vote totals available for the individual parties, or just seats. Number 57 19:34, 26 December 2015 (UTC)

@Number 57: As far as I know, and looking at the CNE results website, there's no nationwide party totals available (only the total of seats awarded), but a way to know the number of voters that clicked each party card on the ballot, is to add their totals by state (Miranda, Capital, Monagas, etc...). In example, if a candidate (in this case one of the GPP) receive in some state 5000 PSUV votes, 100 PCV votes, 50 PPT votes (these results displays when you clicked over the candidate name, because initially displays only the total of votes from all the parties that support their candidacy; after you clicked the name displays the totals by party card); and in other state these parties obtain other number of votes, you can add each one to their respective party, and there you could have the totals (only by an own method, because it looks that the CNE doesn't bother to calculate the totals as you [and everyone here, including me] is asking). But you can also have to notice that this method applies only to the "list vote" ("voto de lista" in Spanish), because the other part (the "circuit vote") doesn't represent clearly the preferences, as one voter could make more than 1 preference on the ballot. I hope that this information could clarify some aspects. --Sfs90 (talk) 01:20, 27 December 2015 (UTC)

@Sfs90: Thanks. South American countries seem to love complex voting systems... Number 57 14:20, 27 December 2015 (UTC)

@Number 57:Hmmm, as far as the opposition parties go, there isn't a popular vote tally for each one of them since there was only the MUD ticket. For the GPP, it could be done since it was split into several tickets, though it would be extremely tedious. I'll probably put the results by state for the big coalitions in a table sometime these weeks. --yeah_93 (talk) 00:35, 29 December 2015 (UTC)

Full results

Having found a site that had partially compiled, I've done a full job and it matches it with their figures and the widely published ones. While there is a total for the GPP (5,625,248) in the party-list vote, it's a bit awkward to show in the results table as there were six parties that ran with the GPP in some states but not in others. The votes that were part of the GPP are shown in red below.

An addendum to the previous discussion, all seats were formally won by either the MUD or PSUV – no minor parties won seats. I guess the issue discussed above is that in some cases the PSUV candidate was actually a member of another party. However, from the CNE's perspective, they were all PSUV. Perhaps this can be explained in the text. Cheers, Number 57 14:54, 2 October 2021 (UTC)

Party		Amaz	Anzo	Apur	Arag	Bari	Bolí	Cara	Coje	DA	DC	Falc	Guar	Lara	Meri	Mira	Mona	NE	Port	Sucr	Tach	Truj	Varg	Yara	Zuli	Tot
MUD		33,069	451,973	93,666	468,964	217,630	387,771	644,642	77,395	27,087	662,926	252,620	168,934	504,122	280,251	838,292	227,635	151,122	186,905	201,753	392,709	180,300	99,734	148,481	1,030,044	7,728,025
GPP (in all states)	PSUV	28,267	262,145	105,196	338,383	158,334	225,959	401,945	78,600	41,589	434,042	178,174	164,003	365,065	136,809	515,160	186,817	86,752	204,034	177,850	162,823	159,760	79,102	132,565	580,113	5,203,487
	PCV	509	4,838	1,190	6,001	2,325	4,068	11,386	2,489	354	9,651	4,022	4,287	7,835	3,299	8,255	3,975	1,416	10,866	3,955	4,430	2,555	1,239	7,184	8,214	114,343
	Tupa	417	5,049	2,194	6,623	1,382	3,154	8,484	2,112	502	5,398	2,962	1,825	4,552	1,934	6,806	2,598	1,168	4,979	2,920	2,430	2,266	2,711	2,795	6,927	82,188
	PPT	671	2,482	709	8,002	1,110	2,279	3,636	608	247	3,683	1,694	1,694	3,903	838	4,021	1,479	632	2,571	1,907	1,607	786	542	5,084	6,014	56,199
	REDES	202	1,765	196	1,585	1,563	1,081	3,184	394	228	1,864	2,546	578	1,428	222	3,382	404	417	1,297	3,942	629	500	188	1,616	4,452	33,663
	POD	53	2,329	434	3,936	404	1,921	3,124	414	124	1,322	991	602	1,094	489	2,338	524	995	1,715	1,061	683	423	349	1,974	2,348	29,647
	MEP	53	1,391	270	977	232	665	1,616	759	53	935	764	493	593	298	1,023	263	193	986	1,431	461	397	209	465	4,151	18,678
	UPV	43	1,353	191	798	258	640	763	198	225	1,233	502	679	1,186	567	1,080	926	218	615	436	538	792	399	1,614	1,032	16,286
	NCR		1,532	83	4,554	61	319	658	828	11	234	342	52	118	45	448	219	66	263	324	363	160	253	243	1,033	12,209
	IPC	11	604	76	520	165	675	763	179	57	458	253	161	422	169	1,363	1,337	99	350	596	307	181	138	342	994	10,220
	ORA	44	387	73	395	127	312	740	107	19	729	249	165	382	122	554	1,222	73	301	113	184	101	122	295	673	7,489
	CRV		489	63	767	352	155	821	122	20	254	1,122	77	311	133	716	208	107		235	182	212	34	259	744	7,383
	VBR	59	162	137	1,429	62	278	900	87	209	135	1,222	273	264	95	199	232	34	185	45	114	79	46	203	913	7,362
	AC	23	1,646		216	62	419	447	131	11	356	132	94	653	146	325	214	169		101	128	91	78	555	1,109	7,106
	PIEDRA		356	22	270	34	134	217	39	8	158	330		104	72	147	52	64	87	101		39	43	62	197	2,536
	PT		1,295																							1,295
	RENA				848																					848
	NM																	727								727
	MIPAM																712									712
	PLC											525														525
	PUAMA	516																								516
	NUGS																							495		495
	URS		467																							467
	VTV		132																4							136
GPP (in some states)	PRT		367			71	275	496	79	60	419	177	396	775	132	318		66	399	431	224	161		685	772	6,303
	UD	98		358	269	214	486			37	479			327	201	583	210			129	482	258	253		1,540	5,924
	JOVEN	39	383		312	145	369	654	106	69	518	150	115	294	188	382	224	169	213	127	317	113	106	157	699	5,849
	PSOEV			1,574	455		515	511	382	46		418	195						156	632				165		5,049
	JUANB			21	137	27		712		16			283	233	207	387			76	85	109		112	99	233	2,737
	PL	151	111	13	184	20	102		57	13	250	172			27				100	77	76	25		99	85	1,562
NUVIPA		99	2,502	1,589	8,059	1,003	6,907	5,584	396	371	17,316	2,723	1,275	13,592	1,942	16,029	2,443	682	1,800	567	1,765	3,087	1,923	1,643	11,171	104,468
BR		1,011			1,099	663	3,493	2,757		1,207	1,848	888	1,417	1,604	8,279	2,276	5,189		514	7,357		7,437			14,661	61,700
MIN			7,865		5,526	1,974	4,894			832	6,737	6,156		5,849		8,596		2,005								50,434
MAS		95	1,793	337	2,985	1,361	1,056	2,894	438	595	2,584	2,795	810	2,577	652	2,504	2,431	435	4,631	1,815	1,012	425	827	744	1,609	37,405
SI			165		131	108	126			42	329	62	31	222		128	80				21,296		32		323	23,075
PIZ																									22,771	22,771
UDR		658			878	407					1,219	2,353		2,863	582	3,098	1,390				3,926	3,173	1,310			21,857
Ecolo				687	1,596		468		489		977		626		950	1,549			457		608		331	271	2,838	11,847
OPG			440		92	98	569	484	61	64	127	96	165	349	143	187	242		82	458	80	150		58	404	4,349
ML		173			342	160	175	203		24	353			299	218	131	179			223	339	398			748	3,965
EL			316		186		88	301	277	17	430	657		286	458	357		166				121	197			3,857
URD		40			196	89	284	275		62	391	871		121	95	223			124		427	108		165		3,471
US			3,304																							3,304
OPINA		24	339		160	57	119	187		61	154	82		107		233			45		109	58		86	1,453	3,274
CONCIENCIA			154		204	78		223		262		106		233	148	488	162	32	303	63		96	30			2,582
PDUPL			711				459				328	326						372								2,196
DALE			2,190																							2,190
GI															1,994											1,994
NOS				32		171			59		325	47	28	102	41	194				44				77	676	1,796
SEGUIMOS								1,755																		1,755
PSL			133		83		79	94			78		121		235				43	100		76			187	1,229
MOPIVENE					81	48				155				126					33	131					551	1,125
ETVIVE																			1,001							1,001
TB																				882						882
PORESTA																					683					683
M100							635																			635
PROALFA																				582						582
PMI															531											531
GDV																							488			488
SR																				482						482
MLS																				426						426
MRS																								275		275
NP			253																							253
VTV			231																12							243
PLXRAS																	155									155
PIO										86																86
RIOS										59																59
TUPAZ		59																								59
Invalid		4,126	32,276	12,054	53,593	25,662	29,694	58,442	11,712	3,615	62,984	27,373	21,593	58,178	16,438	73,265	18,518	12,225	27,267	18,331	28,251	14,717	14,114	21,827	41,883	688,138
Total		70,510	793,928	221,165	920,836	416,457	680,623	1,158,898	178,518	78,437	1,221,224	493,902	370,972	980,169	458,950	1,495,037	460,040	260,404	452,414	429,712	627,292	379,045	204,910	330,583	1,751,562	14,435,588
Registered		102,449	1,054,266	329,188	1,203,967	553,531	971,310	1,548,242	236,616	116,972	1,638,456	663,287	521,089	1,251,453	596,216	2,042,420	620,937	345,033	601,018	643,754	828,970	523,353	274,908	424,905	2,404,025	19,496,365