Talk:Views of Lyndon LaRouche and the LaRouche movement/China Youth Daily
- From the online version of China Youth Daily:
- "The Current World Finacial System is Unsalvageable" (现行的世界金融体系已经无可救药), by Ju Hui (鞠辉), 2009-07-24
- Translated by user:Jim101, User:Jim101/Sandbox
- Original version
- Google translation
- LaRouche PAC translation
他曾9次成功预言世界经济危机，但8次竞选美国总统失败；他曾帮助里根政府谋划拖垮苏联的“星球大战计划”，却因为残酷的政治斗争而沦为阶下囚。他就是美国政界和经济学界的传奇人物———林登·拉鲁什。一个阳光灿烂的夏日午后，记者应邀来到拉鲁什位于华盛顿郊外的乡间别墅，聆听他对世界经济形势的独到见解
He successfully predicted 9 world economic crisis, but lost 8 presidential elections; He helped Reagan's "Star War" program to defeat the Soviet Union, but were ignored by the mainstream politics. He is the legendary American political and economical figure — Lyndon LaRouche. On a sunny summer afternoon, our journalist visited his mansion in the Washington suburb, and listened to his unique perspective on the current world economic crisis.
林登·拉鲁什生于1922年，美国知名经济学家和政治活动家，早年曾经推崇马克思主义，后来转而支持美国式的资本主义经济。自1976年以来，拉鲁士曾8次参加总统大选，其中一次是作为美国工党候选人参选，7次是角逐民主党候选人提名，但均未成功。他的研究领域涵盖政治、经济、哲学、历史以及自然科学等各个方面，经常发表惊世骇俗的独特言论。他所创建的“拉鲁什运动”和《行政情报评论》杂志在美国乃至世界很多国家政界和学界颇具影响力。由于拉鲁什自身理念与传统党派观点格格不入，他在美国政坛一直是一位争议性人物。1988年，拉鲁什因涉嫌票据欺诈被判15年监禁，他本人及其支持者相信这是美国历史上史无前例的政治迫害。拉鲁什在政治道路上历经坎坷，但在经济学方面早已功成名就。从上世纪50年代开始，拉鲁什曾对美国经济和世界经济作过9次预言，这些预言无一例外地警告危机即将来临而且都被后来的事实所验证，其中就包括著名的1973年美国经济大萧条和1998年的亚洲金融风暴。与大多数经济学家不同的是，拉鲁什关注的并不是经济数据模型，而是潜心研究资本积累趋势等那些决定未来社会长远发展的物质和文化因素。2007年7月，拉鲁什再次向世界发出预警称，除非美、中、俄、印四国能够联合起来重塑世界金融体系，摆脱金融寡头控制，否则，一场席卷全球的严重经济危机将很快到来。当时正值华尔街一片“涨声”、牛气冲天之际，很多人对这一警告嗤之以鼻，但仅仅一年之后，拉鲁什的预言再次应验。
Lyndon LaRouche, born on 1922 and a famous American economist and politican, used to endorse Marxism, but later switched to supporting the American style capitalist economy. Since 1976, Lyndon LaRouche participated and lost 8 presidential elections, once as a candidate of the Labor Party, 7 times as a Democrat. His areas of study include politic, economic, philosophy, history and natural science, frequently publishing controversial and unique observations. His "LaRouche movement" and the Political Information Review (not sure of the name) magazine have had significant impacts on both politic and academia circles through out the US and the world. Because of his unique beliefs that are incompatible with both traditional parties, he remains a controversial figure within the American politic. In 1988, LaRouche was sentenced 15 years in prison for fraud, which his supporters believe is the worst case of political repression in the American history. Although LaRouche's political career was cut short, his economic career was full of successes and recognitions. Since the 50's, LaRouche gave 9 predictions for the US and the world economy, and all predictions was vindicated by history, such as the 1973 US recession and the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis. Different from all other economists, LaRouche's focuses were not economic indicators or statistics, but rather on material and cultural factors, such as trends in captial consolidations (maybe means captial hoarding?). On the July of 2007, LaRouche once again warn the world that unless US stop monopolizing world finances, and unite with China, Russia, and India to reorganize the world financial system, a new world wide credit crisis will be unavoidable. But then the bullish Wall Street ignored his warning. One year later, LaRouche's prediction was vindicated again.
采访刚刚开始，已经87岁高龄的拉鲁什便语出惊人：“现行的世界金融体系其实已经崩溃了，无可救药了，从这场次贷危机引发的全球金融危机就可清晰地看到这一点。”按照拉鲁什的理论，当前这场仍在不断恶化的金融危机是自1971年以来美国实行的金融体系的必然产物。拉鲁什认为美国经济必定要发生危机的基本观点是：实物生产不断下降，而虚拟货币数量却不断上升，实体经济和虚拟货币两条曲线一条向下，一条向上，两者产生了巨大的背离，当虚拟货币的数量远远超过实物的数量时，这个世界就要发生灾难。
Just as the interview was starting, the 87 year old LaRouche exclaimed: "The current world finacial system has already collapsed, it is unsalvageable, from this credit caused economic crisis we can clearly see this point." According to LaRouche's study, the current finacial crisis is the product of the American finacial system created in 1971. He believes that with the production of real goods constantly dropping and the credit supplies steadily increasing, the real and nomial economy is slowly drifting apart. When the nominal economy greatly overstates the real economy, the world will fall into a economic crisis.[1] His basic points about the unavoidability of the current US ecocnomic crisis are: the production of real goods is constantly dropping, but the credit supplies is steadily increasing, the real and nomial economies form two curves with one going up, while another one going down, which creates a great contrast. When the nominal economy greatly overstates the real economy, the world will fall into a economic crisis.
在拉鲁什看来，从20世纪60年代起美国经济便开始逐步被金融寡头所掌控，美国由此走向衰退，从一个奋发向上、不断开拓的创新型国家变为一个唯利是图的贪婪国度，人人都指望不费力气就可以发家致富，靠剪“外国羊毛”———剥削别国为生。为此，美国不断把自己的危机转嫁于人。然而，从亚洲金融危机开始，这种金融危机的传染性越来越强，破坏力越来越大。“外国羊”都死了，美国怎能再继续靠“剪羊毛”为生呢？
From LaRouche's point of view, since the 60's the US economy has been slowly taken over by elites from the finacial sector, thus caused its decline. From a nation based on advancement and innovation to a nation based on power and greed, everyone expects profit with minmum efforts. The national's survival now depends on "skinning foreign lamb for wool" — exploitate the riches of other countiries. Thus, the US regularly transfer its own economic crisis onto others. But since the Asian Financial Crisis, those economic crisis become more and more contagious and destructive. If all the "foreign lambs" are dead, can America survive on "skinning lambs"?
拉鲁什自认有一种重塑西方健康文明的使命，要恢复自文艺复兴以后被歪曲了的西方文明精华，哲学上要恢复柏拉图那种主动探索自然法则的人文精神，理论上要复兴德国科学家黎曼等人创造的“物理经济学”，政策上要恢复富兰克林·罗斯福新政时的办法，管制金融资本，为产业复兴提供低息贷款，重新焕发美国人的创造精神。为此，他不断呼吁各国领导人重新合作，再建新的国际金融货币体系。
LaRouche believes that western culture needs a reform, one that return the culture back to the value of enlightenment, with philosophy that follows Plato's tradition of exploring natural laws and realities, principles based on reviving "Physics Economy" created by Riemann et al. and politics based on Franklin Roosevelt's policy. He also states that if the public controlled the finacial captial and revitalized industries with low-interest loans, American people can return to the spirit of innovation. Thus, he regularly calls for world leaders to work together and remake the world finacial and currency system.
拉鲁什赞成中国政府采取的金融管制和经济转型政策。他说，随着上世纪70年代中美建交以及中国实行改革开放政策，中国经济进入了持续30年的快速增长期。拉鲁什认为，中国经济的迅猛发展主要得益于基于成本比较优势的对外贸易，但这种经济增长方式的弊端也非常明显，中国的出口导向型经济严重依赖外部市场，一旦欧美经济出现问题，中国的出口放缓甚至在某些领域出现停滞，必将严重影响中国的整体经济。事实证明，中国经济确实受到了这一轮金融危机的冲击，好在中国坚持资本项目的管制，因而避免了更大损失。
LaRouche approves the Chinese government's measures on finacial control and economic reform. He said, since the opening of Sino-American relations and the Chinese economic reform, Chinese economy has began and sustained a rapid 30 years long growth. LaRouche believes that the Chinese economy grows on profitable foreign trades, but such growths also have flaws, since Chinese exports are dependent on outside markets. If Euro-American economy have problems, Chinese exports will slow or stop, thus impact the entire Chinese economic system. Facts showed that Chinese economy indeed suffers from the impact of the current global economic crisis, but China's strict control of the captial investments/flow prevented more severe losses.
拉鲁什强调，世界经济已经走到了一个十字路口，任何想要挽救旧有国际金融体系的努力都是徒劳的，唯一可行的解决办法就是通过破产重组回归国家信用体系。拉鲁什说，在美国的法律概念中，破产重组的目的是帮助企业解困，现在需要用破产的手段使国家尽快摆脱金融危机的困扰。
LaRouche emphasizes that the world economy is at a crossroad, that any effort on rescuing the old global finacial system are futile, and the only viable solution is to "bankrupt" and reorganize America's "trust rating". LaRouche states that in US law, bankruptcy's goal is to help a company to overcome difficulties, and bankruptcy is need to help the country to shake off the trappings of the current fiancial crisis.
按照拉鲁什的建议，美国应该取消因为金融衍生品过度“杠杆化”而造成的大量虚拟债务，并承担合理的债务，从而回归美国首任财长汉密尔顿所设想的国家信用体系，即由国家银行统管全国债务和信贷。而在国际间，则建立一套基于主权国家间平等条约的国际信用体系。通过固定汇率制来确定国际商品价格，通过主权国家间的平等条约提供足够的国际信用。拉鲁什认为，由于美国、中国、俄罗斯、印度是世界上面积最大、人口最多的主权国家，因此这四大国家之间通过协议达成一致将是新的世界经济体系的重要基础。
LaRouche suggests that US should cancel the debts caused by the over leverage of the financial derivatives, take over "reasonable" debts, return to Paulson's plan for a national credit system, and let the Federal Reserve to control of the credits and debts within the country. On the international level, a new international credit system with all member nations treated as equals should also be implemented. Fixed exchange rate should be used to determine the price of goods in international trade and a new credit system based on member nations standing as equals can supply all the credit. LaRouche believes that since US, China, Russia and India have most of the world's land mass and population, agreements between those four countires is needed for the foundation of a new world economy.
拉鲁什相信，整个亚洲的发展是未来人类文化发展的前沿。而中国是欧亚大陆发展的关键。他说，中国通过30年的高速经济增长实现了跨越式发展，但不可否认的是仍然有大量人口还不富裕，因此要共同制定出一个跨越三代人的目标，通过改善水利、能源等基础设施来提高这部分人的生产能力。中国当然需要转变经济增长方式，由出口导向型转入内需拉动型，因为中国拥有潜力巨大的内部市场，但仅靠中国自身的资本投入远远不够，这就需要其他国家提供大量的有形资本支持。俄罗斯蕴藏着丰富的矿产，可以通过协议向中国提供大量高质量矿产资源，日本可以向中国出口先进技术，韩国等国都发挥各自的作用，这样在亚洲的太平洋沿岸将会形成全世界最大的经济快速增长带，从而带动世界最终走出经济危机。
LaRouche believes that the developments in Asia will be the future in the development of human cultures. But China is the key in the development of Euroasia. He said, China used 30 years of rapid growth to create a world changing development, but there are still Chinese that are living in poverty, thus a plan that last three generations and reform basics such as water and energy is needs to bring up the productivity of those people in poverty. China will also need to change its growth model, and transforms from an export oriented economy to a domestic demand driven economy. Because China has the potential for huge domestic markets, Chinese investment itself is not sufficient to open up the market, and tangible foreign capitals are also needed. Russia has abundant raw resources, and trade agreements can supply China with high quality resources, Japan can also export technologies to China, with Korea and other countries to provide their own goods to the market. Under this condition Asia-Pacific region can form the world's biggest rapid economic growth area, and thus bring the world out of the current economic crisis.
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