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2012 United States House of Representatives election in Montana

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The 2012 congressional election in Montana was held on November 6, 2012, to determine who would represent the state of Montana in the United States House of Representatives. At the time, Montana had one seat in the House. Incumbent Denny Rehberg did not run for reelection, choosing instead to run unsuccessfully for the seat in the U.S. Senate.[1] A primary election was held on June 5, 2012.[2] Republican businessman Steve Daines won the open seat.

2012 United States House of Representatives election in Montana
← 2010 November 6, 2012 2014 →
 
Nominee Steve Daines Kim Gillan
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 255,468 204,939
Percentage 53.3% 42.7%
County results
Daines:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Gillan:      50–60%      60–70%
U.S. Representative before election

Denny Rehberg
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Steve Daines
Republican

Montana's at-large congressional district

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary
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Withdrawn

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Hypothetical polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		John
Abarr 		Steve
Daines 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[8] June 16–19, 2011 382 ± 5.0% 14% 22% — 64%

Results

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Republican primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Steve Daines 82,843 71.2
Republican Eric Brosten 21,012 18.1
Republican Vincent Melkus 12,420 10.7
Total votes 116,275 100.0

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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Declined

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Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Kim
Gillan 		Sam
Rankin 		Diane
Smith 		Dave
Strohmaier 		Rob
Stutz 		Jason
Ward 		Franke
Wilmer 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20] April 26–29, 2012 332 ± 5.4% 21% 4% 13% 9% 1% 0% 11% 41%

Results

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Democratic primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Kim Gillan 25,077 31.0
Democratic Franke Wilmer 14,836 18.4
Democratic Diane Smith 12,618 15.6
Democratic Dave Strohmaier 11,366 14.1
Democratic Sam Rankin 9,382 11.6
Democratic Jason Ward 4,959 6.1
Democratic Rob Stutz 2,586 3.2
Total votes 80,824 100.0

Libertarian primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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General election

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Endorsements

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Steve Daines (R)

Organizations

Kim Gillan (D)

Organizations

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Steve
Daines (R) 		Kim
Gillan (D) 		David
Kaiser (L) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[24] November 2–3, 2012 737 ± 3.6% 48% 44% 3% 4%
Mason-Dixon[25] October 29–31, 2012 625 ± 4.0% 51% 40% 1% 8%
Pharos Research Group[26] October 26–28, 2012 799 ± 4.9% 52% 45% – 4%
Pharos Research Group[27] October 19–21, 2012 400 ± 4.9% 47% 41% – 12%
Public Policy Polling (D)[28] October 8–10, 2012 737 ± 3.6% 43% 34% 10% 12%
MSU-Billings[29] September 27–30, 2012 477 ± 4.6% 36% 23% 3% 38%
Mellman (D-Montana JET PAC)[30] September 23–26, 2012 600 ± 4.0% 36% 34% 5% 25%
Mason-Dixon[31] September 17–19, 2012 625 ± 4.0% 46% 38% 2% 14%
Public Policy Polling (D)[32] September 10–11, 2012 656 ± 3.8% 40% 37% 9% 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[33] April 26–29, 2012 934 ± 3.2% 33% 27% — 40%
Public Policy Polling (D)[34] June 16–19, 2011 819 ± 3.4% 35% 27% — 38%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		John
Abarr (R) 		Kim
Gillan (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (report) June 16–19, 2011 819 ± 3.4% 30% 26% — 44%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		John
Abarr (R) 		Franke
Wilmer (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (report) June 16–19, 2011 819 ± 3.4% 33% 25% — 42%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Steve
Daines (R) 		Franke
Wilmer (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20] April 26–29, 2012 934 ± 3.2% 36% 25% — 39%
Public Policy Polling[35] June 16–19, 2011 819 ± 3.4% 35% 25% — 40%

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[36] Likely R November 5, 2012
Rothenberg[37] Safe R November 2, 2012
Roll Call[38] Likely R November 4, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[39] Likely R November 5, 2012
NY Times[40] Safe R November 4, 2012
RCP[41] Likely R November 4, 2012
The Hill[42] Likely R November 4, 2012

Results

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Montana's at-large congressional district, 2012[43]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Steve Daines 255,468 53.25% −7.16%
Democratic Kim Gillan 204,939 42.72% +8.88%
Libertarian David Kaiser 19,333 4.03% −1.71%
Total votes 479,740 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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References

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  1. ^ Johnson, Charles S. (February 5, 2011). "It's official: Rehberg says he's taking on Tester". Billings Gazette. Retrieved February 5, 2011.
  2. ^ "Montana 2012 Primary and General Election Calendar" (PDF). Secretary of State Linda McCulloch. Archived from the original (PDF) on August 10, 2011. Retrieved August 16, 2011.
  3. ^ Slate, Judy (February 3, 2011). "Bozeman's Steve Daines comments on switching from Senate to House race". KXLF.com. Archived from the original on July 13, 2011. Retrieved June 1, 2011.
  4. ^ Johnson, Charles S. (February 2, 2012). "Star Wars is top issue for GOP House candidate". Billings Gazette. Retrieved February 7, 2012.
  5. ^ Johnson, Charles S. (March 6, 2012). "Ex-Marine from Hardin files for Montana's U.S. House seat". Missoulian. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
  6. ^ Cates, Kristen. "More inclusive KKK chapter makes some suspicious". USA TODAY. Retrieved February 25, 2024.
  7. ^ "Republican Mont. candidate for Congress with KKK ties drops out due to lack of support". The Washington Post. October 5, 2011. Retrieved October 15, 2011.[dead link‍]
  8. ^ Public Policy Polling
  9. ^ a b State of Montana. Official Canvas Retrieved December 20, 2022
  10. ^ Banks, Marnee (June 21, 2011). "Kim Gillan enters Democratic race for US House". KAJ18.com. Archived from the original on March 21, 2012. Retrieved June 21, 2011.
  11. ^ "Billings real estate agent Rankin joins U.S. House race as Demo". Independent Record. March 9, 2012. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
  12. ^ Dennison, Mike (November 3, 2011). "Whitefish businesswoman becomes 5th Democrat in U.S. House race". Billings Gazette. Retrieved November 11, 2011.
  13. ^ Weller, Allyson (June 18, 2011). "Strohmaier announces run for Congress". KPAX. Archived from the original on June 23, 2011. Retrieved June 20, 2011.
  14. ^ Banks, Marnee (August 10, 2011). "Helena attorney Rob Stutz announces run for US House". KRTV. Archived from the original on September 29, 2011. Retrieved August 16, 2011.
  15. ^ Johnson, Charles S. (January 20, 2012). "Crow tribal member files as Democrat for U.S. House seat". Missoulian. Retrieved January 25, 2012.
  16. ^ Banks, Marnee (February 1, 2011). "Wilmer of Bozeman announces U.S. House bid". KRTV.com. Archived from the original on July 13, 2011. Retrieved June 1, 2011.
  17. ^ "Gopher not running for Congress; she sets eye on Senate in 2014". Independent Record. March 14, 2012. Retrieved March 15, 2012.
  18. ^ Drucker, David M. (June 9, 2011). "Could Schweitzer Challenge Baucus in 2014?". Roll Call. Retrieved June 10, 2011.
  19. ^ Johnson, Charles S. (July 28, 2011). "Schweitzer says his future isn't in Congress". Billings Gazette. Retrieved August 2, 2011.
  20. ^ a b Public Policy Polling
  21. ^ Dennison, Mike (March 13, 2012). "Filing deadline: Busy day precedes busy election season". Independent Record. Retrieved March 15, 2012.
  22. ^ "CANDIDATES". gopyoungguns.com. Archived from the original on January 1, 2013. Retrieved January 16, 2023.
  23. ^ "RED TO BLUE 2012". DCCC. Archived from the original on October 26, 2012. Retrieved March 5, 2023.
  24. ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
  25. ^ Mason-Dixon
  26. ^ Pharos Research Group
  27. ^ Pharos Research Group
  28. ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
  29. ^ MSU-Billings
  30. ^ Mellman (D-Montana JET PAC)
  31. ^ Mason-Dixon
  32. ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
  33. ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
  34. ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
  35. ^ Public Policy Polling
  36. ^ "The Cook Political Report — Charts – 2012 House Competitive Races". Cookpolitical.com. November 5, 2012. Retrieved November 6, 2012.
  37. ^ "House Ratings". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com. November 2, 2012. Retrieved November 4, 2012.
  38. ^ [1], as of November 4, 2012
  39. ^ Crystal Ball, as of November 5, 2012
  40. ^ House Race Ratings, The New York Times, as of November 4, 2012
  41. ^ [2], as of November 4, 2012
  42. ^ "House Ratings". The Hill. November 3, 2012. Retrieved November 4, 2012.
  43. ^ "2012 General Canvass" (PDF). Retrieved February 23, 2019.
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Campaign websites

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