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2004 United States Senate election in Arkansas

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The 2004 United States Senate election in Arkansas took place on November 2, 2004, alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

2004 United States Senate election in Arkansas
← 1998 November 2, 2004 2010 →
 
Nominee Blanche Lincoln Jim Holt
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 580,973 458,036
Percentage 55.90% 44.07%
County results
Lincoln:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Holt:      50–60%
U.S. senator before election

Blanche Lincoln
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Blanche Lincoln
Democratic

Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln won re-election to a second term in office despite President George W. Bush winning the state on the same ballot. As of 2023, this was the last time Democrats won the Class 3 Senate seat from Arkansas or that Arkansas elected a female to the U.S. Senate.

Background

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Incumbent Democrat Blanche Lincoln ran for re-election. Lincoln won re-election over Republican State Senator Jim Holt while President George W. Bush carried the state with almost the same margin of victory.

The Democratic Party held super-majority status in the Arkansas General Assembly. A majority of local and statewide offices were also held by Democrats. This was rare in the modern South, where a majority of statewide offices are held by Republicans. Arkansas had the distinction in 1992 of being the only state in the country to give the majority of its vote to a single candidate in the presidential election—native son Bill Clinton—while every other state's electoral votes were won by pluralities of the vote among the three candidates. Arkansas has become more reliably Republican in presidential elections in recent years. The state voted for John McCain in 2008 by a margin of 20 percentage points, making it one of the few states in the country to vote more Republican than it had in 2004, the others being Louisiana, Oklahoma, Tennessee and West Virginia.[1] Obama's relatively poor showing in Arkansas was likely due to a lack of enthusiasm from state Democrats following former Arkansas First Lady Hillary Clinton's failure to win the nomination, and his relatively poor performance among rural white voters (Clinton, however, herself lost the state by an even greater margin as the Democratic nominee in 2016).

Democrats had an overwhelming majority of registered voters, the Democratic Party of Arkansas is more conservative than the national entity. Two of Arkansas' three Democratic Representatives were members of the Blue Dog Coalition, which tends to be more pro-business, pro-military, and socially conservative than the center-left Democratic mainstream. Reflecting the state's large evangelical population, the state has a strong social conservative bent. Under the Arkansas Constitution Arkansas is a right to work state, its voters passed a ban on same-sex marriage with 74% voting yes, and the state is one of a handful that had legislation on its books banning abortion in the event of Roe v. Wade being overturned.

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Results

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Republican Primary results[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jim Holt 37,254 68.9%
Republican Andy Lee 10,709 19.8%
Republican Rosemarie Clampitt 6,078 11.3%
Total votes 54,041 100.0%

General election

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Candidates

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Campaign

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Lincoln was a popular incumbent. In March, she had an approval rating of 55%.[4] Lincoln called herself an advocate for rural America, having grown up on a farm herself. Holt was from Northwest Arkansas, and was also living on a farm.[5] Holt was widely known as a long shot. By the end of June, he had raised just $29,000, while Lincoln had over $5 million cash on hand.[6]

Debates

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Sabato's Crystal Ball[7] Safe D November 1, 2004

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Blanche
Lincoln (D) 		Jim
Holt (R) 		Other /
Undecided
SurveyUSA[8] October 31 – November 1, 2004 549 (LV) ± 4.3% 53% 43% 4%

Results

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Arkansas Senate election 2004
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Blanche Lincoln (Incumbent) 580,973 55.90%
Republican Jim Holt 458,036 44.07%
Write-in 340 0.03%
Total votes 1,039,349 100.0%

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

References

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  1. ^ Wikimedia [user-generated source]
  2. ^ "Blytheville Native Launches U.S. Senate Bid". kait8.com. March 31, 2004. Archived from the original on April 6, 2015. Retrieved December 26, 2009.
  3. ^ David Leip. "2004 Senatorial Republican Primary Election Results - Arkansas". uselectionatlas.org.
  4. ^ "John J. Miller on U.S. Senate & Election 2004 on National Review Online". Archived from the original on March 9, 2012. Retrieved September 4, 2010.
  5. ^ "Sen. Lincoln Visits with Constituents in Region 8". kait8.com. 2 July 2004. Archived from the original on 1 December 2017. Retrieved 4 September 2010.
  6. ^ "Can Republicans hold on to the Senate?". NBC News. August 11, 2004. Archived from the original on March 5, 2016.
  7. ^ "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 2004. Retrieved May 2, 2021.
  8. ^ SurveyUSA
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