2016 United States Senate election in Connecticut
The 2016 United States Senate election in Connecticut was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Connecticut, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
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Blumenthal: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Carter: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal won re-election to a second term in office. Blumenthal's final vote total of 1,008,714 at the time made him the largest vote-receiver in the history of statewide elections in the state. (Blumenthal's record was later broken by then Vice President Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election; Biden received 1,080,680 votes.) He also became the first person to exceed 1 million votes in the history of statewide elections in Connecticut. He remains the highest voter-receiver in the history of statewide elections besides the presidency.
Democratic nomination
editCandidates
editDeclared
edit- Richard Blumenthal, incumbent U.S. Senator[1]
Republican nomination
editDeclared
editWithdrew at convention
edit- Jack Orchulli, CEO and co-founder of a Michael Kors apparel company; nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2004[4]
Failed to qualify
edit- August Wolf, investment executive and former Olympic athlete[5][6]
Declined
edit- Larry Kudlow, economist, television personality and columnist[7][8][9][10]
- Linda McMahon, businesswoman, former CEO of WWE, and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2010 and 2012[5][11]
- Rob Simmons, Stonington First Selectman, former U.S. Representative and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2010[12]
- Joe Visconti, former West Hartford Town Councilor, nominee for CT-01 in 2008 and Independent candidate for governor in 2014[13]
- David Walker, former Comptroller General of the United States and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2014[14]
Republican convention
editThe Republican state convention was held May 9, 2016, at the Connecticut Convention Center to select candidates for the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives. State Representative Dan Carter received the nomination with 76.7% of the delegate vote. Neither Jack Orchulli nor August Wolf received the necessary 15% of the delegate vote necessary to be granted an automatic primary on August 9, 2016.[15] In the first round of voting, Wolf received 179 delegate votes, equalling 15.1% and qualifying for a primary. However, before balloting closed, Orchulli dropped from the race and publicly endorsed Dan Carter, urging his candidates to switch their votes. During the vote switching, an additional 56 delegates that had voted for Wolf also switched their vote, dropping him well below the 15% threshold.[16]
On May 11, 2016, Wolf announced an attempt to force a primary by collecting the signatures of 8,079 registered Republicans by June 7.[17] However, on June 21, 2016, it was announced that Wolf had failed to reach the required signature threshold to force a primary, and he conceded the Republican nomination to Carter as a result.[18]
Convention results
edit| Candidate | Delegates | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Carter | 907 | 76.7% |
| August Wolf | 123 | 10.4% |
| Jack Orchulli | 20 | 1.7% |
| Not Present | 132 | 11.2% |
Endorsements
edit- Len Fasano, Minority Leader of the Connecticut Senate[3]
- Themis Klarides, Minority Leader of the Connecticut House of Representatives[3]
- Jack Orchulli, former candidate for the U.S. Senate[16]
General election
editDebates
edit| Dates | Location | Blumenthal | Carter | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 23, 2016 | Rocky Hill, Connecticut | Participant | Participant | [19] |
Predictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[20] | Safe D | November 2, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[21] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[22] | Safe D | November 3, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[23] | Safe D | November 8, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[24] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
Polling
edit| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Richard Blumenthal (D) |
Dan Carter (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey[25] | November 1–7, 2016 | 1,387 | ± 4.6% | 63% | 34% | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey[26] | October 31 – November 6, 2016 | 1,173 | ± 4.6% | 62% | 35% | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey[27] | October 28 – November 3, 2016 | 925 | ± 4.6% | 62% | 36% | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey[28] | October 27 – November 2, 2016 | 753 | ± 4.6% | 62% | 36% | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey[29] | October 26 – November 1, 2016 | 616 | ± 4.6% | 60% | 38% | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey[30] | October 25–31, 2016 | 554 | ± 4.6% | 59% | 38% | 3% |
| Emerson College[31] | September 2–5, 2016 | 1,000 | ± 3.0% | 54% | 33% | 9% |
| Quinnipiac University[32] | June 1–5, 2016 | 1,330 | ± 2.7% | 60% | 30% | 10% |
with August Wolf
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Richard Blumenthal (D) |
August Wolf (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University[33] | October 7–11, 2015 | 1,735 | ± 2.4% | 61% | 26% | 13% |
| Quinnipiac University[34] | June 1–5, 2016 | 1,330 | ± 2.7% | 62% | 27% | 11% |
with Larry Kudlow
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Richard Blumenthal (D) |
Larry Kudlow (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University[35] | October 7–11, 2015 | 1,735 | ± 2.4% | 61% | 27% | 12% |
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Richard Blumenthal | 920,766 | 57.68% | +5.20% | |
| Working Families | Richard Blumenthal | 87,948 | 5.51% | +2.83% | |
| Total | Richard Blumenthal (incumbent) | 1,008,714 | 63.19% | +8.03% | |
| Republican | Dan Carter | 552,621 | 34.62% | −8.60% | |
| Libertarian | Richard Lion | 18,190 | 1.14% | N/A | |
| Green | Jeffery Russell | 16,713 | 1.05% | N/A | |
| Independent | Andrew Rule (write-in) | 26 | 0.00% | N/A | |
| Independent | John M. Traceski (write-in) | 12 | 0.00% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 1,596,276 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
edit- Litchfield (largest city: Torrington)
By congressional district
editBlumenthal won all five congressional districts.[37]
| District | Blumenthal | Carter | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 68% | 30% | John B. Larson |
| 2nd | 61% | 36% | Joe Courtney |
| 3rd | 68% | 30% | Rosa DeLauro |
| 4th | 62% | 36% | Jim Himes |
| 5th | 58% | 40% | Elizabeth Esty |
References
edit- ^ Cahn, Emily; Levinson, Alexis (January 28, 2015). "Senators Confirm Re-Election Bids for 2016". Roll Call. Archived from the original on January 29, 2015. Retrieved January 29, 2015.
- ^ "Breaking News: CT State Rep. Dan Carter Is Exploring Run for U.S. Senate". Bethel Advocate. March 19, 2016.
- ^ a b c "GOP's Dan Carter announces for U.S. Senate nomination". The Connecticut Mirror. April 4, 2016.
- ^ Vigdor, Neil (April 12, 2016). "Darien fashion label founder Orchulli to run for Senate". The Connecticut Post. Retrieved April 14, 2016.
- ^ a b Radelat, Ana (May 4, 2015). "Stamford Republican steps up to challenge Blumenthal". The Connecticut Mirror. Retrieved July 18, 2015.
- ^ Blair, Russell (June 21, 2016). "Republican August Wolf Fails To Qualify For U.S. Senate Primary". The Hartford Courant. Retrieved June 23, 2016.
- ^ Burns, Alexander (September 22, 2015). "Larry Kudlow Weighs Run Against Senator Richard Blumenthal in Connecticut". The New York Times. Retrieved October 1, 2015.
- ^ Radelat, Ana (September 28, 2015). "Kudlow denies report he's decided to run against Blumenthal". The Connecticut Mirror. Retrieved December 19, 2015.
- ^ Altimari, Daniela (December 7, 2015). "CNBC's Larry Kudlow Urged To Run For Senate Against Connecticut's Richard Blumenthal". Hartford Courant. Retrieved December 19, 2015.
- ^ Keating, Christopher (February 16, 2016). "Kudlow Will Not Run for U.S. Senate Against Blumenthal". Hartford Courant. Retrieved February 16, 2016.
- ^ Krasselt, Kaitlyn (February 7, 2016). "Linda McMahon says self awareness influenced new venture for women". Greenwich Time. Retrieved February 7, 2016.
- ^ Vigdor, Neil (April 8, 2015). "Simmons rules out 2016 challenge of Blumenthal". Connecticut Post. Retrieved April 9, 2015.
- ^ Vigdor, Neil (May 1, 2015). "Visconti exploring 2016 Senate run". Connecticut Post. Retrieved October 1, 2015.
- ^ Vigdor, Neil (March 23, 2015). "Walker won't challenge Blumenthal for Senate". Connecticut Post. Retrieved March 25, 2015.
- ^ "Dan Carter wins Connecticut's Republican Senate nomination". WTNH. Retrieved May 10, 2016.
- ^ a b "CT GOP backs Carter for Senate, denies Wolf primary margin". The CT Mirror. Retrieved May 10, 2016.
- ^ Altimari, Daniela (May 11, 2016). "Rejected by GOP, An Angry August Wolf Seeks Primary". Hartford Courant. Retrieved May 21, 2016.
- ^ Blair, Russell (June 21, 2016). "Republican August Wolf Fails To Qualify For U.S. Senate Primary". Hartford Courant. Retrieved June 27, 2016.
- ^ Full debate
- ^ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
- ^ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
- ^ "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
- ^ "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
- ^ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Quinnipiac University Archived June 25, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Quinnipiac University Archived February 13, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Quinnipiac University Archived June 25, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Quinnipiac University Archived February 13, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ "2016 General Election November 8, 2016 Official Results". ct.gov. December 15, 2016. Retrieved November 15, 2016.
- ^ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 20, 2024.
External links
editOfficial campaign websites