2016 United States Senate election in Iowa

The 2016 United States Senate election in Iowa was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Iowa, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

2016 United States Senate election in Iowa

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Nominee Chuck Grassley Patty Judge
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 926,007 549,460
Percentage 60.09% 35.66%

Grassley:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Judge:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Tie:      40–50%

U.S. senator before election

Chuck Grassley
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Chuck Grassley
Republican

Incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Grassley won reelection to a seventh term in office. Primary elections were held June 7, 2016,[1] with Grassley facing no primary opposition, and former lieutenant governor Patty Judge winning the Democratic nomination. Grassley won a seventh term in a sixth consecutive landslide and outperformed Donald Trump, who also won the state that year; nevertheless, this represented Grassley's worst re-election performance at the time since his first race in 1980, until 6 years later when Michael Franken would not only make Grassley fall below 60% of the vote, but also cut his winning percentage in half and flip several counties (namely Black Hawk, Linn, Story and Polk) that Grassley carried in this election.[2]

Background

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Republican Chuck Grassley was first elected to the Senate in 1980, defeating Democratic incumbent John Culver by 53% to 46%. Since then, Grassley has been re-elected five times, most recently in 2010, on each occasion taking at least 64% of the vote.

Despite speculation that Grassley, who turned 83 years old in 2016, might retire,[3] he announced in September 2013 that he was "making plans to run for re-election", but added that "it's not taking much of my time. I'm concentrating on doing my job for Iowans."[4]

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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Withdrawn

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Declined

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Results

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Republican primary results[11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Chuck Grassley (Incumbent) 90,089 98.36%
Republican Write-ins 1,500 1.64%
Total votes 91,589 100.00%

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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Withdrawn

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Declined

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Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Patty
Judge
Rob
Hogg
Bob
Krause
Tom
Fiegen
None/Other Undecided
Des Moines Register[24] May 30 – June 2, 2016 542 ± 4.2% 42% 25% 6% 5% 6% 15%
KBUR-AM 1490[25] May 31 – June 1, 2016 1,361 ± 3.0% 37% 31% 3% 6% 23%

Results

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Results by county:
  Fiegen—30–40%
  Hogg—60–70%
  Hogg—50–60%
  Hogg—40–50%
  Hogg—30–40%
  Judge—80–90%
  Judge—70–80%
  Judge—60–70%
  Judge—50–60%
  Judge—40–50%
Democratic primary results[11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Patty Judge 46,322 47.62%
Democratic Rob Hogg 37,801 38.86%
Democratic Tom Fiegen 6,573 6.76%
Democratic Bob Krause 6,425 6.60%
Democratic Write-ins 154 0.16%
Total votes 97,275 100.00%

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[26] Likely R November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[27] Safe R November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[28] Safe R November 3, 2016
Daily Kos[29] Safe R November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics[30] Safe R November 7, 2016

Debates

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Dates Location Grassley Judge Link
October 19, 2016 Sioux City, Iowa Participant Participant [31]

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chuck
Grassley (R)
Patty
Judge (D)
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey[32] November 1–7, 2016 1,781 ± 4.6% 57% 39% 4%
SurveyMonkey[33] Oct 31–Nov 6, 2016 1,598 ± 4.6% 56% 39% 5%
Des Moines Register/Selzer[34] November 1–4, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 56% 33% 2% 4%
Emerson College[35] November 1–3, 2016 700 ± 3.6% 60% 32% 4% 5%
Loras College[36] November 1–3, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 53% 37% 1% 8%
SurveyMonkey[37] Oct 28–Nov 3, 2016 1,469 ± 4.6% 57% 39% 4%
SurveyMonkey[38] Oct 27–Nov 2, 2016 1,226 ± 4.6% 57% 40% 3%
SurveyMonkey[39] Oct 26–Nov 1, 2016 867 ± 4.6% 56% 41% 3%
SurveyMonkey[40] October 25–31, 2016 984 ± 4.6% 56% 41% 3%
Quinnipiac University[41] October 20–26, 2016 791 ± 3.5% 56% 38% 5%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey[42] October 8–16, 2016 1,135 ± 0.5% 56% 40% 5%
Google Consumer Surveys[43] October 12–14, 2016 523 ± 4.2% 56% 41% 3%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid[44] October 7–10, 2016 917 ± 3.0% 51% 39% 11%
Des Moines Register/Selzer[45] October 3–6, 2016 642 ± 3.5% 53% 36% 2% 6%
Loras College[46] September 20–22, 2016 491 ± 4.4% 54% 37% 9%
Quinnipiac University[47] September 13–21, 2016 612 ± 4.0% 55% 43% 2%
Monmouth University[48] September 12–14, 2016 404 ± 4.9% 56% 39% 2% 3%
RABA Research[49] September 6–8, 2016 1,054 ± 3.0% 50% 37% 13%
Emerson College[50] Aug 31–Sept 1, 2016 600 ± 3.9% 51% 40% 3% 6%
Public Policy Polling[51] August 30–31, 2016 827 ± 3.4% 49% 43% 8%
CBS News/YouGov[52] August 17–19, 2016 987 ± 4.0% 45% 38% 1% 15%
Quinnipiac University[53] August 9–16, 2016 846 ± 3.4% 51% 42% 6%
Suffolk University[54] August 8–10, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 52% 42% 6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[55] August 3–7, 2016 899 ± 3.3% 52% 42% 1% 5%
CBS News/YouGov[56] July 13–15, 2016 998 ± 4.8% 45% 37% 2% 16%
Monmouth University[57] July 8–11, 2016 401 ± 4.9% 52% 42% 6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[58] July 5–10, 2016 822 ± 3.4% 52% 42% 1% 5%
Loras College[59] June 24–28, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 46% 45% 9%
Public Policy Polling[60] June 22–23, 2016 897 ± 3.3% 46% 39% 14%
Public Policy Polling[61] June 9–13, 2016 630 ± 3.9% 48% 41% 11%
Hypothetical polling

with Rob Hogg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chuck
Grassley (R)
Rob
Hogg (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[62] January 8–10, 2016 1,901 ± 2.3% 52% 28% 19%
Public Policy Polling[63] December 10–13, 2015 1,426 ± 2.6% 54% 29% 17%
Public Policy Polling[64] October 30–November 1, 2015 1,668 ± 2.4% 53% 29% 18%
Public Policy Polling[65] August 7–9, 2015 1,500 ± 2.5% 52% 28% 20%

with Tom Fiegen

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chuck
Grassley (R)
Tom
Fiegen (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[62] January 8–10, 2016 1,901 ± 2.3% 53% 29% 18%
Public Policy Polling[63] December 10–13, 2015 1,426 ± 2.6% 54% 29% 16%
Public Policy Polling[64] October 30–November 1, 2015 1,668 ± 2.4% 54% 30% 16%
Public Policy Polling[65] August 7–9, 2015 1,500 ± 2.5% 53% 30% 17%

with Bob Krause

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chuck
Grassley (R)
Bob
Krause (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[62] January 8–10, 2016 1,901 ± 2.3% 52% 28% 20%
Public Policy Polling[63] December 10–13, 2015 1,426 ± 2.6% 53% 28% 19%
Public Policy Polling[64] October 30–November 1, 2015 1,668 ± 2.4% 52% 28% 21%
Public Policy Polling[65] August 7–9, 2015 1,500 ± 2.5% 51% 29% 20%

with Tom Vilsack

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chuck
Grassley (R)
Tom
Vilsack (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[66] September 25–28, 2014 1,192 ± 2.8% 51% 42% 7%
Public Policy Polling[67] May 15–19, 2014 914 ± 3.3% 49% 39% 12%
Public Policy Polling[68] February 20–23, 2014 869 ± 3.3% 48% 41% 11%

Results

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United States Senate election in Iowa, 2016[69]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Chuck Grassley (incumbent) 926,007 60.09% −4.26%
Democratic Patty Judge 549,460 35.66% +2.36%
Libertarian Charles Aldrich 41,794 2.71% +0.44%
Independent Jim Hennager 17,649 1.15% N/A
Independent Michael Luick-Thrams 4,441 0.29% N/A
n/a Write-ins 1,685 0.11% +0.03%
Total votes 1,541,036 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

By congressional district

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Grassley won all 4 of the congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.[70]

District Grassley Judge Representative
1st 58% 38% Rod Blum
2nd 56% 39% Dave Loebsack
3rd 58% 37% David Young
4th 68% 28% Steve King

References

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  1. ^ Iowa Secretary of State, Primary Election, sos.iowa.gov
  2. ^ Miller, Stephen. "Republican Chuck Grassley wins eighth term, defeats Mike Franken in Iowa US Senate race". Des Moines Register. Retrieved February 16, 2023.
  3. ^ Matt Kelley (January 29, 2013). "Senator Grassley not ready to consider joining Harkin in retirement". Radio Iowa. Retrieved May 22, 2014.
  4. ^ a b Livingston, Abby (September 20, 2013). "Grassley Planning to Run Again in 2016". Roll Call. Archived from the original on September 21, 2013. Retrieved September 20, 2013.
  5. ^ a b c Jacobs, Jennifer; Noble, Jason (March 31, 2015). "And he's off: Event kicks off Grassley's re-election campaign". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved March 31, 2015.
  6. ^ Porter, Jake (January 19, 2016). "Primary Challenger Announces Against Grassley". Iowa Free Press. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
  7. ^ "IA-Sen: Robert Rees challenging Chuck Grassley in GOP primary". Bleeding Heartland. February 12, 2016. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
  8. ^ "IA-Sen: Robert Rees ends GOP primary challenge to Chuck Grassley". Bleeding Heartland. March 15, 2016. Retrieved March 17, 2016.
  9. ^ a b c d Cheney, Kyle (December 29, 2014). "16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate". Politico. Retrieved December 29, 2014.
  10. ^ a b c d Cahn, Emily (June 26, 2013). "Hawkeye Politicians Finally See Some Opportunity in 2014 | Farm Team". Roll Call. Retrieved August 14, 2013.
  11. ^ a b "Official Results" (PDF). Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved July 21, 2016.
  12. ^ Petroski, William (September 21, 2015). "Hogg to seek Grassley's seat in U.S. Senate". Des Moines Register. Retrieved September 22, 2015.
  13. ^ Noble, Jason (February 25, 2016). "Challenge Grassley? Patty Judge is thinking about it". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved February 25, 2016.
  14. ^ Steinhauer, Jennifer (March 3, 2016). "Charles Grassley Faces Formidable Challenger in Iowa Senate Race". The New York Times. Retrieved March 3, 2016.
  15. ^ Noble, Jason (March 4, 2016). "It's official: Patty Judge challenges Chuck Grassley". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved March 4, 2016.
  16. ^ "Krause ends bid for governor, endorses fellow Democrat Hatch". Des Moines Register. January 2, 2014. Archived from the original on January 3, 2014. Retrieved January 3, 2014.
  17. ^ Lynch, James Q. (November 7, 2015). "Zirkelbach is fourth candidate in Democratic U.S. Senate race". The Gazette. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
  18. ^ "IA-Sen: Patty Judge thinking about challenging Chuck Grassley". Bleeding Heartland. February 26, 2016. Retrieved February 26, 2016.
  19. ^ Noble, Jason (March 4, 2016). "Former Iowa Gov. Chet Culver tells me he WILL NOT run for Congress or any other political office in 2016". Twitter. Retrieved March 4, 2016.
  20. ^ Petroski, William (January 26, 2016). "61 legislators endorse Hogg's U.S. Senate bid". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
  21. ^ Henderson, O. Kay (April 21, 2015). "Loebsack in Des Moines to talk 2016 campaign strategy". Radio Iowa. Retrieved July 23, 2015.
  22. ^ Rynard, Pat (May 28, 2015). "Rumor Roundup: Ravi Patel's Super PAC, Webb's Loss, Adams In, Bertrand for Governor". Iowa Starting Line. Retrieved May 28, 2015.
  23. ^ "Two bizarre takes on the IA-Sen Democratic primary". Bleeding Heartland. March 7, 2016. Retrieved March 8, 2016.
  24. ^ Des Moines Register
  25. ^ KBUR-AM 1490
  26. ^ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
  27. ^ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  28. ^ "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  29. ^ "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
  30. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
  31. ^ Full debate - C-SPAN
  32. ^ SurveyMonkey
  33. ^ SurveyMonkey
  34. ^ Des Moines Register/Selzer
  35. ^ Emerson College
  36. ^ Loras College Archived November 6, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  37. ^ SurveyMonkey
  38. ^ SurveyMonkey
  39. ^ SurveyMonkey
  40. ^ SurveyMonkey
  41. ^ Quinnipiac University Archived July 30, 2019, at the Wayback Machine
  42. ^ Washington Post/SurveyMonkey Archived October 19, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  43. ^ Google Consumer Surveys
  44. ^ The Times-Picayune/Lucid
  45. ^ Des Moines Register/Selzer
  46. ^ Loras College
  47. ^ Quinnipiac University Archived September 24, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  48. ^ Monmouth University
  49. ^ RABA Research Archived September 13, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  50. ^ Emerson College
  51. ^ Public Policy Polling Archived September 9, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  52. ^ CBS News/YouGov
  53. ^ Quinnipiac University Archived October 14, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  54. ^ Suffolk University[permanent dead link]
  55. ^ NBC/WSJ/Marist
  56. ^ CBS News/YouGov
  57. ^ Monmouth University
  58. ^ NBC/WSJ/Marist
  59. ^ Loras College Archived July 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  60. ^ Public Policy Polling
  61. ^ Public Policy Polling
  62. ^ a b c Public Policy Polling
  63. ^ a b c Public Policy Polling
  64. ^ a b c Public Policy Polling
  65. ^ a b c Public Policy Polling
  66. ^ Public Policy Polling
  67. ^ Public Policy Polling
  68. ^ Public Policy Polling
  69. ^ "Official Results General Election" (PDF). Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved December 19, 2016.
  70. ^ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting.
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Official campaign websites (Archived)