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2012 United States Senate election in New Jersey

(Redirected from United States Senate election in New Jersey, 2012)

For related races, see 2012 United States Senate elections.

The 2012 United States Senate election in New Jersey took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

2012 United States Senate election in New Jersey
← 2006 November 6, 2012 2018 →
 
Nominee Bob Menendez Joe Kyrillos
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,987,680 1,329,534
Percentage 58.87% 39.37%
Menendez:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Kyrillos:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      >90%
U.S. senator before election

Bob Menendez
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Bob Menendez
Democratic

Incumbent senator Bob Menendez became the first Hispanic-American U.S. senator to represent New Jersey in January 2006 when former U.S. senator Jon Corzine appointed him to the seat after having resigned to become governor of New Jersey, following his election in November 2005.[1] In November 2006, after a tough and painful election, Menendez defeated Republican state senator Thomas Kean, Jr. with 53.3% of the vote.

Menendez won re-election to a second full term, becoming the first Democratic Senate candidate to carry Somerset County since Bill Bradley in 1984. This is the only time since 1976 that a candidate for this seat received over 55% of the vote. This election marked the first time that someone won this seat by double digits since 1976 as well. Menendez outperformed President Obama by winning 0.62% more than Obama won in the concurrent presidential election.

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bob
Menendez 		Someone
else 		Unsure
Fairleigh Dickinson University[3] March 5–11, 2012 404 ±5.0% 30% 37% 33%

Results

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Democratic primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Bob Menendez (incumbent) 235,321 100
Total votes 235,321 100

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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Withdrew

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Declined

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Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Michael
Doherty 		Kim
Guadagno 		Woody
Johnson 		Tom
Kean Jr. 		Joseph
Kyrillos 		Anna
Little 		Tim
Smith 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[19] July 15–18, 2011 300 ±5.7% 7% 10% 9% 36% 3% 4% 2% — 30%

Results

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Results by county:
  Kyrillos—80–90%
  Kyrillos—70–80%
  Kyrillos—60–70%
  Kyrillos—40–50%
Republican primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Joe Kyrillos 161,146 77.1
Republican David Brown 18,671 8.9
Republican Joseph Rullo 16,690 8.0
Republican Bader Qarmout 12,637 6.0
Total votes 209,144 100%

General election

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Candidates

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Debates

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Three debates were scheduled. The first debate took place on October 4, 2012, at Montclair State University. Menendez and Kyrillos participated. The second took place on October 10 at NJ 101.5 studios, Trenton NJ[24] The third was to take place on October 17 at Mercer County Community College[25] External links

Fundraising

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Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Bob Menendez (D) $10,243,864 $2,325,178 $10,345,365 $0
Joseph Kyrillos (R) $3,106,536 $1,132,232 $1,974,302 $50,236
Kenneth R. Kaplan (L) $800 $0 $800 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[26][27][28]

Top contributors

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[29]

Bob Menendez Contribution Joseph Kyrillos Contribution
Lowenstein Sandler $116,160 McElroy, Deutsch, Mulvaney & Carpenter, LLP $133,098
Greenberg Traurig $78,250 Allied Management Inc $22,000
NORPAC $70,550 Connell Foley $18,250
Prudential Financial $66,800 Maser Consulting $17,250
DeCotiis, FitzPatrick & Cole $48,150 B&L Tire $15,000
Kindred Healthcare $48,000 Berkeley College $15,000
Verizon Communications $47,050 CJ Hesse $15,000
Medco Health Solutions $41,249 GlobalTel $15,000
DLA Piper $41,000 Langer Transport Corp $15,000
Dade Medical College $40,000 Fgi Finance $14,000

Top industries

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[30]

Bob Menendez Contribution Joe Kyrillos Contribution
Lawyers/Law Firms $1,633,843 Lawyers/Law Firms $312,845
Real Estate $1,096,684 Retired $103,900
Lobbyists $578,182 Financial Institutions $98,200
Financial Institutions $532,651 Real Estate $98,150
Health Professionals $524,810 Health Professionals $62,100
Retired $411,525 Business Services $60,250
Construction Services $388,550 Construction Services $54,300
Pharmaceuticals/Health Products $353,250 Universities $51,250
Insurance $338,550 General Contractors $39,500
Leadership PACs $328,244 Misc Business $38,550

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[31] Likely D November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[32] Likely D November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[33] Safe D November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[34] Likely D November 5, 2012

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bob
Menendez (D) 		Joseph
Kyrillos (R) 		Other Undecided
Fairleigh Dickinson University[35] January 3–9, 2011 802 ±3.5% 41% 29% — 30%
Public Policy Polling[36] July 15–18, 2011 480 ±4.5% 48% 29% — 23%
Farleigh Dickinson University[37] September 19–25, 2011 800 ±3.5% 49% 28% — 22%
Farleigh Dickinson University[38] January 2–8, 2012 800 ±3.5% 43% 31% — 26%
Rutgers-Eagleton[39] February 9–11, 2012 914 ±3.3% 44% 22% 1% 26%
Survey USA[40] February 24–26, 2012 533 ±4.3% 46% 31% — 23%
Quinnipiac[41] February 21–27, 2012 1,396 ±2.6% 49% 34% 1% 14%
Farleigh Dickinson University[42] March 5–11, 2012 396 ±2.6% 43% 33% — 23%
Quinnipiac[43] April 3–9, 2012 1,607 ±2.4% 44% 35% 1% 20%
Fairleigh Dickenson/PublicMind[44] April 30 – May 6, 2012 400 ±5% 42% 33% — 24%
Quinnipiac[43] May 9–14, 2012 1,582 ±2.5% 45% 35% 2% 19%
Quinnipiac[43] July 9–14, 2012 1,623 ±2.5% 47% 34% 1% 16%
Monmouth University[45] July 18–22, 2012 535 LV ±2.5% 44% 35% 1% 19%
Monmouth University[45] July 23–27, 2012 849 RV ±2.5% 45% 33% 1% 22%
Rutgers-Eagleton[46] August 23–25, 2012 688 LV ±3.7% 47% 35% 8% 10%
Quinnipaic University[47] August 27 – September 2, 2012 1,471 LV ±2.5% 50% 40% — 10%
Quinnipaic University[47] September 6–12, 2012 706 LV ±2.5% 50% 36% — 16%
Philadelphia Inquirer[48] September 9–12, 2012 600 LV ±2.5% 43% 32% — 12%
Monmouth University[45] September 19–23, 2012 613 LV ±2.5% 49% 34% — 15%
Philadelphia Inquirer[49] October 4–8, 2012 604 LV ±4% 49% 35% — 15%
Quinnipiac[50] October 10–14, 2012 1,319 LV ±2.7% 55% 37% — 15%
Stockton[51] October 12–18, 2012 811 LV ±3.5% 52% 30% — 18%
SurveyUSA[52] October 17–18, 2012 577 LV ±4.2% 53% 33% 5% 9%
Philadelphia Inquirer[53] October 23–25, 2012 601 LV ±4% 50% 32% — 18%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bob
Menendez (D) 		Jennifer
Beck (R) 		Other Undecided
Fairleigh Dickinson University[35] January 3–9, 2011 802 ±3.5% 42% 29% — 29%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bob
Menendez (D) 		Lou
Dobbs (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[54] January 6–9, 2011 520 ±4.3% 47% 35% — 18%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bob
Menendez (D) 		Lou
Dobbs (I) 		Other Undecided
Fairleigh Dickinson University[55] January 4–10, 2010 801 ±3.5% 37% 34% — 28%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bob
Menendez (D) 		Michael
Doherty (R) 		Other Undecided
Fairleigh Dickinson University[56] February 23 – March 1, 2010 801 ±3.5% 40% 27% 8% 25%
Fairleigh Dickinson University[35] January 3–9, 2011 802 ±3.5% 40% 30% — 30%
Public Policy Polling[36] July 15–18, 2011 480 ±4.5% 48% 35% — 17%
Farleigh Dickinson University[37] September 19–25, 2011 800 ±3.5% 49% 30% — 22%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bob
Menendez (D) 		Kim
Guadagno (R) 		Other Undecided
Fairleigh Dickinson University[35] January 3–9, 2011 802 ±3.5% 47% 26% — 27%
Public Policy Polling [57] January 6–9, 2011 520 ±4.3% 45% 30% — 24%
Public Policy Polling[36] July 15–18, 2011 480 ±4.5% 48% 34% — 18%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bob
Menendez (D) 		Woody
Johnson (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[36] July 15–18, 2011 480 ±4.5% 48% 30% — 22%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bob
Menendez (D) 		Tom
Kean Jr. (R) 		Other Undecided
Fairleigh Dickinson University[56] January 23 – February 1, 2010 801 ±3.5% 35% 45% 2% 15%
Fairleigh Dickinson University[56] February 23 – March 1, 2010 801 ±3.5% 38% 39% 6% 17%
Fairleigh Dickinson University[35] January 3–9, 2011 802 ±3.5% 44% 34% — 22%
Public Policy Polling[54] January 6–9, 2011 520 ±4.3% 41% 39% — 19%
Public Policy Polling[36] July 15–18, 2011 480 ±4.5% 44% 39% — 16%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bob
Menendez (D) 		Anna
Little (R) 		Other Undecided
Farleigh Dickinson University[38] January 2–8, 2012 800 ±3.5% 43% 31% — 26%
Survey USA[40] February 24–26, 2012 533 ±4.3% 48% 29% — 23%

Results

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Results of the November election by municipality
  Menendez
  Kyrillos
United States Senate election in New Jersey, 2012[58]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Bob Menendez (incumbent) 1,987,680 58.87% +5.50%
Republican Joe Kyrillos 1,329,534 39.37% −4.97%
Libertarian Kenneth R. Kaplan 16,803 0.50% −0.15%
Green Ken Wolski 15,801 0.47% N/A
Independent Gwen Diakos 9,359 0.28% N/A
Independent J. David Dranikoff 3,834 0.11% N/A
Independent Inder "Andy" Soni 3,593 0.11% N/A
Independent Robert "Turk" Turkavage 3,532 0.10% N/A
Socialist Greg Pason 2,249 0.07% −0.04%
Independent Eugene M. LaVergne 2,198 0.07% N/A
Independent Daryl Brooks 2,066 0.06% −0.17%
Total votes 3,376,649 100.0% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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By congressional district

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Menendez won 9 of 12 congressional districts, including three that elected Republicans to the House.[59]

District Menendez Kyrillos Representative
1st 66.7% 31.7% Rob Andrews
2nd 54.6% 43.3%
Frank LoBiondo
3rd 51.9% 46.8% Jon Runyan
4th 44.8% 53.5% Chris Smith
5th 49.3% 48.8% Scott Garrett
6th 60.7% 37.4% Frank Pallone
7th 46.1% 51.8% Leonard Lance
8th 80.4% 17.7% Bill Pascrell (112th Congress)
Albio Sires (113th Congress)
9th 70.4% 27.9% Steve Rothman (112th Congress)
Bill Pascrell (113th Congress)
10th 88.0% 10.7% Donald Payne Jr.
11th 47.5% 50.8% Rodney Frelinghuysen
12th 66.0% 32.2% Rush Holt Jr.

See also

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References

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  1. ^ Chen, David W. (December 8, 2005). "Corzine Is Said to Have Picked a Replacement". The New York Times. Retrieved December 29, 2010.
  2. ^ Menendez for Senate 2012
  3. ^ Fairleigh Dickinson University
  4. ^ a b [1]
  5. ^ a b Symons, Michael (April 10, 2012). "Menendez unopposed in Senate primary after rival rejected". Asbury Park Press. Archived from the original on January 17, 2013. Retrieved April 15, 2012.
  6. ^ Friedman, Matt (January 19, 2012). "N.J. Sen. Joseph Kyrillos to seek U.S. Senate seat". The Star-Ledger. Retrieved January 19, 2012.
  7. ^ Jennings, Rob (February 15, 2012). "Local man launches bid for U.S. Senate". New Jersey Herald. Archived from the original on March 4, 2016. Retrieved February 17, 2012.
  8. ^ Portnoy, Jenna (February 16, 2012). "Gov. Christie makes campaign appearance for N.J. Sen. Joe Kyrillos' U.S. Senate bid". The Star-Ledger. Retrieved February 20, 2012.
  9. ^ Pizarro, Max (September 21, 2011). "Linker ends his conservative bid for the U.S. Senate". PolitickerNJ. Retrieved October 23, 2011.
  10. ^ "Winners and Losers: Conventions Edition". Politicker NJ. March 18, 2012. Retrieved March 19, 2012.
  11. ^ Sen. Diane Allen on lessons from the campaign trail | NJ.com
  12. ^ Greenbaum, Mark (November 30, 2010). "Opinion: Will Christie wage battle to defeat Menendez in 2012?". The Record. Retrieved December 29, 2010.
  13. ^ Margolin, Josh (November 3, 2010). "Gov. Christie, U.S. Sen. Menendez expected to clash in long-awaited N.J. political battle". The Star-Ledger. Retrieved December 29, 2010.
  14. ^ "Crowley Won't Run For Senate - Hotline On Call". Archived from the original on July 2, 2011. Retrieved June 30, 2011.
  15. ^ Pizarro, Max (February 10, 2012). "Doherty formally backs Kyrillos for Senate". PolitickerNJ. Retrieved February 17, 2012.
  16. ^ "Field is clearing for Kyrillos run for U.S. Senate". The Star-Ledger. December 18, 2011. Retrieved December 19, 2011.
  17. ^ D'Aprile, Shane (December 12, 2010). "New Jersey GOP lacking a name to face a more vulnerable Menendez". The Hill. Retrieved December 29, 2010.
  18. ^ Friedman, Matt (January 5, 2011). "N.J. Assemblyman Jay Webber resigns as Republican state chairman". The Star-Ledger. Retrieved January 5, 2011.
  19. ^ Public Policy Polling
  20. ^ "NJ Greens Pick Ken Wolski as Candidate for U.S. Senate". Atlantic Highlands Herald. March 13, 2012. Archived from the original on July 20, 2012. Retrieved April 15, 2012.
  21. ^ Isherwood, Darryl R. (October 6, 2011). "Tinton Falls resident to challenge Menendez in primary". PolitickerNJ. Retrieved October 23, 2011.
  22. ^ "Ken Kaplan for U.S. Senate". Archived from the original on February 20, 2012. Retrieved April 15, 2012.
  23. ^ "Socialist Party MOC Nominates Pat Noble for Red Bank Board of Education". Socialist Party of Monmouth and Ocean Counties. February 16, 2012. Retrieved April 15, 2012.[permanent dead link‍]
  24. ^ "NJ 101.5 to Host US Senate Debate". September 17, 2012.
  25. ^ "NJ U.S. Senate Debate Planned". October 5, 2012.
  26. ^ Bob Menendez Campaign Finances
  27. ^ Joseph Kyrillos Campaign Finances
  28. ^ Kenneth R. Kaplan
  29. ^ [http://www.opensecrets.org/races/contrib.php?cycle=2012&id=NJS1 OpenSecrets
  30. ^ Contributors by Industry (opensecrets.org)
  31. ^ "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  32. ^ "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  33. ^ "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  34. ^ "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  35. ^ a b c d e Fairleigh Dickinson University
  36. ^ a b c d e Public Policy Polling
  37. ^ a b Farleigh Dickinson University
  38. ^ a b Farleigh Dickinson University
  39. ^ Rutgers-Eagleton Archived July 12, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  40. ^ a b Survey USA
  41. ^ Quinnipiac Archived September 12, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  42. ^ Farleigh Dickinson University
  43. ^ a b c Quinnipiac Archived September 12, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  44. ^ Fairleigh Dickenson/PublicMind
  45. ^ a b c Monmouth University Archived September 12, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  46. ^ Rutgers-Eagleton
  47. ^ a b Quinnipaic University Archived September 12, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  48. ^ Philadelphia Inquirer Archived September 12, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  49. ^ Philadelphia Inquirer
  50. ^ Quinnipiac
  51. ^ Stockton
  52. ^ SurveyUSA
  53. ^ Philadelphia Inquirer
  54. ^ a b Public Policy Polling
  55. ^ Fairleigh Dickinson University
  56. ^ a b c Fairleigh Dickinson University
  57. ^ Public Policy Polling
  58. ^ "Official List Candidates for US Senate - For GENERAL ELECTION 11/06/2012" (PDF). New Jersey Secretary of State. December 6, 2012. Retrieved November 7, 2013.
  59. ^ "Daily Kos".
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Official campaign websites (Archived)

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