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2010 United States Senate election in Ohio

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The 2010 United States Senate election in Ohio was held on November 2, 2010, as one of many Ohio elections in 2010. Incumbent two-term Republican U.S. Senator George Voinovich decided to retire instead of seeking a third term.[2] Former Representative Republican Rob Portman won the open seat.

2010 United States Senate election in Ohio
← 2004 November 2, 2010 2016 →
 
Nominee Rob Portman Lee Fisher
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 2,168,742 1,503,297
Percentage 56.85% 39.40%
Portman:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Fisher:      40–50%      50–60%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

George Voinovich
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Rob Portman[1]
Republican

Republican primary

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Background

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With rumors circulating about Voinovich's possible retirement, former Director of the Office of Management and Budget, United States Trade Representative, and Congressman Rob Portman and State Auditor Mary Taylor were considered the main contenders for the Republican nomination.[3] Former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell was also considered a potential candidate, but declined in order to run for chairman of the Republican National Committee.[4]

Candidate

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Campaign

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When Voinovich made his retirement official, Portman declared his candidacy the next day.[5] Thomas Ganley, a Cleveland car dealer, launched his campaign for the nomination in April, after Portman had collected support from most of the Ohio Republican establishment.[6] Taylor officially declined to run in May and was announced as gubernatorial candidate John Kasich's running mate on January 12, 2010[7]

Ganley was the only other declared candidate, but on February 17, 2010, he announced that he would switch races and run against Betty Sutton in Ohio's 13th congressional district instead,[8] leaving Portman as the only Republican candidate. He had over $7 million in campaign funds.[9]

Results

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Republican primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Rob Portman 667,369 100.00%
Total votes 667,369 100.00%

Democratic primary

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Background

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Congressman Tim Ryan, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, and Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher were considered leading contenders to run against George Voinovich.[11] Ohio Governor Ted Strickland urged Jennifer Brunner to run for re-election rather than run for the Senate.[12] Cuyahoga County Commissioner Peter Lawson Jones and Ohio State Representative Tyrone Yates considered running, but both withdrew from consideration.[13][14]

Candidates

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Campaign

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On February 17, 2009, Brunner and Fisher both officially announced their candidacies for the now-open seat election, with Strickland officially endorsing Fisher.[12][15][16] Ryan declined to run and endorsed Fisher in July.[17]

Fisher was endorsed by Governor Ted Strickland and U.S. Representatives John Boccieri, Tim Ryan, Zack Space, and Charlie Wilson.[18]

Polling in late 2009 and January 2010 showed Brunner to be more competitive than Fisher in a general election matchup against Portman, while Fisher and Brunner were deadlocked in Democratic primary polling.[19]

Charlene Renee Bradley and Traci Johnson also filed to run in the Democratic primary.[20]

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Jennifer Brunner Lee Fisher Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University[21] January 29 – February 2, 2009 492 ± 4.4% 16% 18% 14% 53%
Quinnipiac University[22] March 10–15, 2009 506 ± 4.4% 14% 18% 1% 46%
Quinnipiac University[22] April 28 – May 4, 2009 437 ± 4.7% 16% 20% 1% 59%
Quinnipiac University[23] June 26 – July 1, 2009 483 ± 4.5% 21% 24% 2% 51%
Research 2000[24] July 6–8, 2009 400 ± 5.0% 17% 22% — 61%
Quinnipiac University[25] September 10–13, 2009 421 ± 4.8% 17% 26% 2% 55%
Quinnipiac University[26] November 5–9, 2009 394 ± 4.9% 22% 24% 1% 51%
Quinnipiac University[27] February 16–21, 2010 604 ± 4.0% 20% 29% 2% 48%
Quinnipiac University[28] March 25–28, 2010 978 ± 3.1% 26% 33% 1% 40%
Research 2000[29] April 5–7, 2010 400 ± 4.0% 26% 35% — 39%
Quinnipiac University[30] April 22–26, 2010 987 ± 3.1% 24% 41% 1% 34%
Suffolk University[31] April 27–29, 2010 400 ± 4.9% 27% 55% — 18%
Quinnipiac University[32] April 29 – May 2, 2010 980 ± 3.1% 23% 43% 1% 32%

Results

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Results by county
  Fisher
  50–60%
  60–70%
  Brunner
  50–60%
  60–70%
Democratic primary results[33]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Lee Irwin Fisher 380,189 55.6%
Democratic Jennifer Lee Brunner 304,026 44.4%
Total votes 684,206 100.0%

General election

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Candidates

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Campaign

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When the incumbent announced he would retire, Portman jumped into the race in early 2009. During the two-year time period, Portman raised over $9 million.[34] Originally, the election was seen as a toss-up, as Portman's experience in the Bush administration was considered a liability for him.[35] Both President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden campaigned for Fisher.[36] However, Portman consistently led in fundraising and polling, particularly as Portman was unopposed in the Republican primary, while the Democratic primary between Fisher and Brunner was highly divisive.

Television advertisements were very negative. Fisher attacked Portman for helping to ship jobs overseas during his entire political career, backing deals that shipped jobs overseas, and the trade deficit with China, which grew by over $41 billion.[37] Portman claimed in response that most jobs were being lost to other states, not countries.[38] Portman attacked Fisher for supporting Obama's stimulus and cap and trade.[39][40]

Debates

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Three debates were held in Cleveland, Columbus, and Toledo.[41] The first one was in Toledo on October 5. The second one was in Cleveland on October 8, while the third was in Columbus on October 12.

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[42] Solid R October 26, 2010
Rothenberg[43] Safe R October 22, 2010
RealClearPolitics[44] Safe R October 26, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[45] Likely R October 21, 2010
CQ Politics[46] Safe R October 26, 2010

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Lee Fisher (D) Rob Portman (R) Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (report[permanent dead link‍]) January 17–18, 2009 578 ± 4.1% 39% 41% — 20%
Quinnipiac University (report) January 29 – February 2, 2009 1,127 ± 2.9% 42% 27% 1% 29%
Quinnipiac University (report) March 10–15, 2009 1,299 ± 2.7% 41% 33% 1% 24%
Quinnipiac University (report) April 28 – May 4, 2009 1,079 ± 3.0% 42% 31% 1% 26%
Public Policy Polling (report[permanent dead link‍]) June 17–19, 2009 619 ± 3.9% 41% 32% — 27%
Quinnipiac University (report) June 26 – July 1, 2009 1,259 ± 2.8% 37% 33% 2% 26%
Research 2000 (report) July 6–8, 2009 400 ± 5.0% 42% 35% — 23%
Quinnipiac University (report) September 10–13, 2009 1,074 ± 3.0% 42% 31% 1% 26%
Rasmussen Reports (report) September 23, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 40% 41% 6% 14%
Quinnipiac University (report) November 5–9, 2009 1,123 ± 2.9% 36% 39% — 24%
Rasmussen Reports (report) December 7, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 36% 38% 8% 18%
Rasmussen Reports (report) January 12, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 37% 44% 4% 14%
Rasmussen Reports (report) February 5–6, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 39% 43% 5% 13%
Quinnipiac University (report) February 16–21, 2010 1,662 ± 2.4% 37% 40% 2% 21%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 4, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 39% 44% 5% 12%
Public Policy Polling (report) March 20–21, 2010 630 ± 3.9% 36% 41% — 23%
Quinnipiac (report) March 23–29, 2010 1,526 ± 2.5% 41% 37% 1% 21%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 38% 43% 4% 14%
Research 2000 (report) April 5–7, 2010 600 ± 4.0% 43% 39% — 18%
Quinnipiac Polling (report) April 21–26, 2010 1,568 ± 2.5% 40% 37% 1% 21%
Rasmussen Reports (report) May 7, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 43% 42% 4% 14%
UC/The Ohio Poll (report) May 11–20, 2010 668 ± 3.8% 47% 46% — 6%
Rasmussen Reports (report) June 3, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 43% 43% 4% 10%
Quinnipiac Polling (report) June 22–27, 2010 1,107 ± 3.0% 42% 40% 1% 17%
Public Policy Polling (report) June 26–27, 2010 482 ± 4.5% 40% 38% –– 22%
Rasmussen Reports (report) June 29, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 39% 43% 4% 13%
Rasmussen Reports (report) July 19, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 39% 45% 5% 11%
Rasmussen Reports (report) August 2, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 40% 44% 5% 11%
Reuters/Ipsos (report) August 6–8, 2010 600 ± 4.0% 36% 43% — 21%
Rasmussen Reports (report) August 16, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 37% 45% 5% 13%
Public Policy Polling (report) August 27–29, 2010 475 ± 4.5% 38% 45% — 18%
Rasmussen Reports (report) August 30, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 39% 44% 7% 11%
The Columbus Dispatch (report) August 25 – September 3, 2010 1,622 ± 2.2% 37% 50% 3% 9%
Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research (report) September 11, 2010 1,000 ± 3.0% 41% 48% 3% 8%
Rasmussen Reports (report) September 13, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 41% 49% 2% 8%
CNN/Time Magazine (report) September 10–14, 2010 820 ± 3.5% 41% 52% 4% 2%
SurveyUSA (report) September 14, 2010 1000 ± 4.0% 40% 49% 7% 4%
Quinnipiac University (report) September 17, 2010 730 ± 3.6% 35% 55% — 1%
Ohio Newspapers Poll/UC (report) September 24, 2010 850 ± 4.0% 40% 55% — 5%
Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research (report) September 25, 2010 1,000 ± 3.0% 37% 50% 3% 11%
CBS/NY Times report) September 23–27, 2010 941 ± 3.0% 34% 45% — 18%
Reuters/Ipsos report) September 23–25, 2010 440 ± 3.0% 37% 50% — 13%
Rasmussen Reports (report) September 27, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 42% 51% 1% 6%
Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research (report) October 2, 2010 1,000 ± 3.0% 37% 53% 2% 8%
Quinnipiac University (report) September 29 – October 3, 2010 1,025 ± 3.1% 36% 55% — —
Angus Reid Public Opinion (report) Oct. 5–8, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 43% 52% 6% —
Rasmussen Reports (report) October 11, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 34% 57% 2% 7%
University of Cincinnati (report) October 8–13, 2010 705 ± 3.7% 36% 58% 1% 6%
Quinnipiac University (report) October 12–17, 2010 1,183 ± 2.8% 34% 55% 1% 10%
University of Cincinnati (report) October 14–18, 2010 839 ± 3.3% 39% 58% 0% 3%
CNN/Time/Opinion Research (report) October 15–19, 2010 1,502 ± 2.5% 40% 55% 2% 3%
Quinnipiac University (report) October 20, 2010 686 ± 2.5% 34% 55% — 2%
Wilson Research Strategies (report) October 20–21, 2010 500 ± 3.0% 38% 49% — 8%
SurveyUSA (report) October 22–26, 2010 950 ± 4.0% 37% 52% — 4%
Rasmussen Reports (report) October 26, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 33% 57% 3% 7%
Columbus Dispatch (report) October 20–29, 2010 1,445 ± 2.3% 40% 56% 0% 4%
Quinnipiac University (report) October 25–30, 2010 848 ± 3.4% 37% 56% 1% 8%
Angus Reid Public Opinion (report) October 27–29, 2010 460 ± 4.6% 40% 57% 3% —
Public Policy Polling (report) October 28–30, 2010 1,356 ± 2.7% 39% 57% 0% 4%
University of Cincinnati (report) October 27–31, 2010 930 ± 3.2% 39% 60% 0% 1%
University of Cincinnati (report) November 1, 2010 930 ± 3.2% 39% 61% 0% 0%

Fundraising

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Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Rob Portman (R) $15,998,398 $10,493,211 $5,505,186 $0
Lee Fisher (D) $6,191,361 $5,882,729 $308,631 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[47]

Results

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Winning the election, Portman received 57% of the votes. He received the majority of votes in 82 of 88 counties and in 15 of 18 Congressional districts, including the district of liberal U.S. Congressman Dennis Kucinich.[48]

United States Senate election in Ohio, 2010[49]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Robert Jones Portman 2,168,742 56.85% −6.61%
Democratic Lee Irwin Fisher 1,503,297 39.40% +2.85%
Constitution Eric Deaton 65,856 1.72% N/A
Independent Michael Pryce 50,101 1.31% N/A
Socialist Daniel LaBotz 26,454 0.69% N/A
N/A Arthur Sullivan (write-in) 648 0.02% N/A
Majority 665,445 17.44%
Total votes 3,815,098 100.00%
Republican hold Swing NA

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Ohio Senate election results – Politics – Decision 2010 – msnbc.com". Archived from the original on September 29, 2012. Retrieved November 2, 2010.
  2. ^ Dubail, Jean (January 12, 2009). "It's official: Voinovich to retire from Senate after 2010". Cleveland Plain Dealer. Retrieved November 10, 2009.
  3. ^ Larkin, Brent (January 9, 2009). "Voinovich in 2010? We'll see". Cleveland Plain Dealer. Retrieved November 11, 2009.
  4. ^ "Portman says he's leaning toward Senate run". Columbus Dispatch. January 13, 2009. Archived from the original on July 21, 2011. Retrieved November 11, 2009.
  5. ^ Hershey, William (January 13, 2009). "Portman announces for U.S. Senate, to start statewide campaign tour". Dayton Daily News. Archived from the original on June 22, 2011. Retrieved November 11, 2009.
  6. ^ Wendel, Kim (April 4, 2009). "Auto dealer Ganley expected to announce run for Voinovich's Senate seat". WKYC. Retrieved November 11, 2009.
  7. ^ "Ohio Auditor Mary Taylor won't seek re-election, instead will run for lieutenant governor". cleveland.com. January 13, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  8. ^ Gonzales, Nathan (February 17, 2010). "Ganley Switching Races in Ohio, Will Challenge Sutton". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on April 6, 2010. Retrieved February 17, 2010.
  9. ^ Kleefeld, Eric (February 17, 2010). "Tom Ganley: February 2010 | TPMDC". Tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com. Archived from the original on February 19, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  10. ^ "U. S. SENATOR - REPUBLICAN: MAY 4, 2010". Ohio Secretary of State. Archived from the original on May 22, 2021. Retrieved March 22, 2021.
  11. ^ Skolnick, David (January 13, 2009). "Will Ryan make a run for Senate?". The Vindicator. Archived from the original on January 14, 2012. Retrieved November 11, 2009.
  12. ^ a b Naymik, Mark (February 3, 2009). "Ohio Democrats brace for collision over open Senate seat". Cleveland Plain Dealer. Archived from the original on April 12, 2009. Retrieved November 11, 2009.
  13. ^ Koff, Stephen (February 26, 2009). "3rd Democratic candidate emerges for Voinovich's Senate seat; analyst calls it a toss-up". Cleveland Plain Dealer. Retrieved November 11, 2009.
  14. ^ Wilkinson, H (August 25, 2009). "Yates endorses Fisher". Cincinnati Enquirer. Archived from the original on July 24, 2011. Retrieved November 11, 2009.
  15. ^ Naymik, Mark (February 17, 2009). "Jennifer Brunner announces candidacy for U.S. Senate". Cleveland Plain Dealer. Retrieved November 11, 2009.
  16. ^ Naymik, Mark (February 17, 2009). "Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher joins the race for U.S. Senate seat". Cleveland Plain Dealer. Retrieved November 11, 2009.
  17. ^ "U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan endorses Ohio Lt. Gov. Fisher for Senate seat". The Vindicator. July 27, 2009. Archived from the original on March 6, 2012. Retrieved November 11, 2009.
  18. ^ "Elected Officials / Endorsements / Lee Fisher for Ohio". Fisherforohio.com. Archived from the original on August 17, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  19. ^ Chuck Crow, The Plain Dealer (January 19, 2010). "Real test of U.S. Senate candidate Jennifer Brunner coming soon". Cleveland.com. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  20. ^ "Candidates File for the May 4 State Primary". Ohio Secretary of State. February 18, 2010. Archived from the original on May 9, 2010. Retrieved February 24, 2010.
  21. ^ Quinnipiac University
  22. ^ a b Quinnipiac University
  23. ^ Quinnipiac University
  24. ^ Research 2000
  25. ^ Quinnipiac University
  26. ^ Quinnipiac University
  27. ^ Quinnipiac University
  28. ^ Quinnipiac University
  29. ^ Research 2000
  30. ^ Quinnipiac University
  31. ^ Suffolk University Archived May 27, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
  32. ^ Quinnipiac University
  33. ^ "The 2010 Results Maps". Politico.Com. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  34. ^ "Race Detail Display Page : Roll Call". Archived from the original on May 4, 2010. Retrieved March 29, 2010.
  35. ^ "CQ Politics | Poll Tracker - Ohio Senate: Portman Even With Fisher, Leads Brunner". Archived from the original on December 14, 2009. Retrieved September 29, 2010.
  36. ^ "Prospects in Ohio Looking Better for Senate GOP : Roll Call". Archived from the original on September 7, 2010. Retrieved September 29, 2010.
  37. ^ PolitiFact | Lee Fisher hammers Rob Portman on record in Bush administration
  38. ^ Portman targets Fisher with claim that most jobs Ohio lost went to other states: PolitiFact Ohio | cleveland.com
  39. ^ "Democrats Use Portman Ad As Opening To Attack - The Eye (CQ Politics)". Archived from the original on July 16, 2010. Retrieved September 29, 2010.
  40. ^ RealClearPolitics - Portman Hits Fisher on Jobs in New Ad
  41. ^ U.S. Senate candidates Rob Portman and Lee Fisher agree to debates in Cleveland, Columbus and Toledo | cleveland.com
  42. ^ "Senate". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  43. ^ "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  44. ^ "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  45. ^ "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  46. ^ "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  47. ^ "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Ohio". fec.gov. Retrieved July 21, 2010.[permanent dead link‍]
  48. ^ "Portman is GOP's Point Man in Ohio : Roll Call". Archived from the original on March 18, 2011. Retrieved March 16, 2011.
  49. ^ "State of Ohio 2010 General Election November 2, 2010 Unofficial Results". Ohio Secretary of State. November 2, 2010. Archived from the original on November 9, 2011. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
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Official campaign websites (Archived)

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