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2004 United States Senate election in South Carolina

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The 2004 United States Senate election in South Carolina was held on November 2, 2004. Longtime incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Fritz Hollings retired, and Republican U.S. Representative Jim DeMint won the open seat. DeMint was the first Republican to hold this Senate seat since 1879. This marked the first time since Reconstruction that Republicans held both Senate seats in South Carolina simultaneously.

2004 United States Senate election in South Carolina
← 1998 November 2, 2004 2010 →
 
Nominee Jim DeMint Inez Tenenbaum
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 857,167 704,384
Percentage 53.67% 44.10%
County results

DeMint:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

Tenenbaum:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Fritz Hollings
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Jim DeMint
Republican

Democratic primary

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South Carolina's status as a Republican stronghold led observers to speculate that Hollings retiring would lead to his seat being picked up by a Republican.[1] Inez Tenenbaum, the South Carolina Superintendent of Education, would win the primary by a wide margin following the decision of many state Democrats to forgo a candidacy.

Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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  • Ben Frasier, former congressional aide

Withdrew

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Declined to run

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Results

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2004 South Carolina U.S. Senate Democratic primary election[7]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Inez Tenenbaum 126,720 75.5%
Democratic Ben Frasier 41,070 24.5%

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Defeated in primary

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Campaign

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The Senate election two years earlier in 2002 did not have a primary election because the South Carolina Republicans were more preoccupied with the gubernatorial contest, despite having the first open senate seat in 40 years. The retirement of Democratic Senator Fritz Hollings gave the Republicans an opportunity to pick up the seat and with no other interesting positions up for election in 2004, a crowded field developed in the Republican primary. Furthermore, the Republicans were motivated by having President Bush at the top of the ticket enabling them to ride his coattails to victory.

Former Governor David Beasley, from the Pee Dee, entered the race and quickly emerged as the frontrunner because of his support from the evangelical voters. However, during his term as governor from 1995 to 1999 he had greatly angered the electorate by proposing to remove the Confederate Naval Jack from the dome of the statehouse and by being against the adoption of a state lottery to provide for college scholarships. Both positions led to the loss of his re-election in 1998 and the issues continued to trouble him in the Senate race.

The battle for second place in the primary was between Upstate congressman, Jim DeMint, and Charleston developer Thomas Ravenel. DeMint was able to squeak out a second-place finish because Charlie Condon, a former Attorney General of South Carolina, split the Lowcountry vote with Ravenel thus providing DeMint the margin he needed. In addition, while many voters were attracted to the Ravenel campaign and felt that he had a future in politics, they believed that he should set his sights on a less high-profile office first before trying to become senator. Resigned to defeat, Ravenel endorsed DeMint in the runoff election.

In the runoff election on June 22, 2004, DeMint scored a surprising victory over Beasley. Ravenel's endorsement of DeMint proved crucial as the Lowcountry counties heavily went for the Representative from the Upstate. Also, Beasley had burnt too many bridges while governor and was unable to increase his share of the vote in the runoff.

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[10] 		Margin
of error 		Jim
DeMint 		David
Beasley 		Thomas
Ravenel 		Charlie
Condon 		Mark
McBride 		Bob
Peeler 		Undecided
SurveyUSA[11] June 18–20, 2004 499 (LV) ± 4.5% 54% 44% 2%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[12] June 10–14, 2004 700 (LV) 46% 42% 12%
SurveyUSA[13] June 12–14, 2004 527 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 48% 5%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[12] June 7, 2004 42% 48% 10%
Richard Quinn & Associates (R)[14][15] June 9–10, 2004 300 (LV) ± 5.8% 38% 47% 15%
SurveyUSA[16] June 4–6, 2004 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 20% 38% 23% 12% 7%
SurveyUSA[17] May 22–24, 2004 421 (LV) ± 4.9% 21% 43% 17% 16% 3%
Richard Quinn & Associates (R)[18] May 11, 2004 467 (LV) ± 4.7% 18% 40% 11% 9% 22%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[12] May 2004 33% 54% 10%
SurveyUSA[19][20] April 26–28, 2004 427 (LV) ± 4.9% 27% 38% 19% 16%
Richard Quinn & Associates (R)[21] February 4–5, 2004 716 (LV) ± 3.8% 13% 41% 9% 15% 2% 20%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[22] January 2004 550 (LV) ± 3.4% 16% 37% 10% 19% 2% 16%
Richard Quinn & Associates (R)[23][24] October 17–20, 2003 ± 3.8% 8% 24% 8% 16% 44%
24% 44% 32%
22% 33% 45%
44% 28% 28%
Basswood Research (R)[25] April 29, 2003 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 19% 4% 27% 4% 46%

Results

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Republican Primary
Candidate Votes %
David Beasley 107,847 36.6%
Jim DeMint 77,567 26.3%
Thomas Ravenel 73,167 24.8%
Charlie Condon 27,694 9.4%
Mark McBride 6,479 2.2%
Orly Benny Davis 1,915 0.7%
Republican Primary Runoff
Candidate Votes % ±%
Jim DeMint 154,644 59.2% +32.9%
David Beasley 106,480 40.8% +4.2%

General election

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Candidates

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Major

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Minor

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  • Tee Ferguson (United Citizens)
  • Efia Nwangaza (Green)
  • Rebekah E. Sutherland (Libertarian)
  • Patrick Tyndall (Constitution)

DeMint entered the general election campaign severely weakened from the primary fight, having spent most of his campaign funds. He stressed to the voters that he would follow conservative principles and provide an important Republican vote in the closely divided Senate. Democrats fared poorly in statewide elections in South Carolina, so Tenenbaum tried to make the race about issues rather than party identification.

Tenenbaum attacked DeMint's support of the FairTax proposal because it would increase the sales tax by 23%. The election victory by DeMint merely cemented South Carolina's shift to the Republican column as the best candidate the Democrats could offer was soundly defeated by the typical 10-point margin.

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Sabato's Crystal Ball[26] Likely R (flip) November 1, 2004

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[10] 		Margin
of error 		Jim
DeMint (R) 		Inez
Tenenbaum (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA[27] October 29–31, 2004 635 (LV) ± 4% 52% 41% 7%
McLaughlin & Associates[28] October 26–28, 2004 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 48% 40% 12%
SurveyUSA[29] October 22–24, 2004 564 (LV) ± 4.2% 52% 39% 9%
Mason-Dixon[30] October 19–20, 2004 625 (LV) ± 4% 47% 43% 10%
SurveyUSA[31] October 10–12, 2004 563 (LV) ± 4.2% 46% 43% 11%
Rasmussen Reports[32] October 6, 2004 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 49% 43% 8%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[33] September 29–30, 2004 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 46% 36% 18%
Mason-Dixon[34] September 27–29, 2004 625 (RV) ± 4% 50% 38% 12%
Global Strategy Group (D)[35] September 27–29, 2004 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 46% 11%
SurveyUSA[36] September 19–21, 2004 684 (LV) ± 3.8% 51% 39% 10%
Global Strategy Group (D)[37] September 7–9, 2004 600 (LV) ± 4% 44% 41% 15%
SurveyUSA[38] August 16–18, 2004 727 (LV) ± 3.7% 52% 39% 9%
SurveyUSA[39] July 10–12, 2004 702 (LV) ± 3.8% 48% 41% 11%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[40] June 28–29, 2004 600 (LV) ± 4% 47% 41% 12%
Hickman Research (D)[41] March 14–18, 2004 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 33% 48% 19%
Hickman Research (D)[42] Jul 28–Aug 3, 2003 628 (LV) ± 3.9% 33% 48% 19%
DSCC (D)[43][24] May 2003 ± % 33% 45% 22%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[10] 		Margin
of error 		David
Beasley (R) 		Inez
Tenenbaum (D) 		Undecided
Hickman Research (D)[44] March 14–18, 2004 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 41% 46% 13%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[45][46] February 2004 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 48% 32% 20%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[10] 		Margin
of error 		Charlie
Condon (R) 		Inez
Tenenbaum (D) 		Undecided
Hickman Research (D)[41] March 14–18, 2004 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 40% 47% 13%
Hickman Research (D)[42] Jul 28–Aug 3, 2003 628 (LV) ± 3.9% 36% 48% 16%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[10] 		Margin
of error 		Thomas
Ravenel (R) 		Inez
Tenenbaum (D) 		Undecided
Hickman Research (D)[42] Jul 28–Aug 3, 2003 628 (LV) ± 3.9% 29% 49% 22%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[10] 		Margin
of error 		Jim
DeMint (R) 		Fritz
Hollings (D) 		Undecided
DSCC (D)[43][24] May 2003 ± % 38% 43% 19%

Results

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South Carolina U.S. Senate Election, 2004
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Jim DeMint• 857,167 53.67% +8.00%
Democratic Inez Tenenbaum 704,384 44.10% −8.60%
Constitution Patrick Tyndall 13,464 0.84% N/A
Libertarian Rebekah E. Sutherland 10,678 0.67% −0.92%
United Citizens Party Tee Ferguson 5,859 0.37% N/A
Green Efia Nwangaza* 4,245 0.27% N/A
No party Write-Ins 1,286 0.08% N/A
Majority 152,783 9.57% +2.54%
Turnout 1,597,221 69.0% +16.2%
Republican gain from Democratic
*Nwangaza ran under the Independence Party in Aiken and Calhoun counties; her totals are combined.

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Hollings Retirement Could Hurt Democrats". wfmynews2.com. Retrieved February 13, 2022.
  2. ^ "Columbia Mayor Bob Coble drops out of Senate race". WISTV. Retrieved February 13, 2022.
  3. ^ a b c d e "Coalition of The Willing?". Roll Call. June 6, 2003. Retrieved February 13, 2022.
  4. ^ "Corzine Looks For Millionaires". Roll Call. May 2, 2003. Retrieved February 13, 2022.
  5. ^ "Democrats Brace for Possible Hollings Exit". Roll Call. May 20, 2003. Retrieved February 13, 2022.
  6. ^ "Who Will Replace Hollings?". wltx.com. Retrieved February 13, 2022.
  7. ^ http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2004/2004congresults.pdf OFFICIAL ELECTION RESULTS FOR UNITED STATES SENATE (2004). www.fec.gov. p. 72. Retrieved October 24, 2013.
  8. ^ news.google.com/newspapers. [dead link‍].
  9. ^ "MCBRIDE ON CAMPAIGN TRAIL". January 7, 2003.. fee required.
  10. ^ a b c d e f Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  11. ^ SurveyUSA
  12. ^ a b c Public Opinion Strategies (R)
  13. ^ SurveyUSA
  14. ^ Richard Quinn & Associates (R)
  15. ^ p. 2
  16. ^ SurveyUSA
  17. ^ SurveyUSA
  18. ^ Richard Quinn & Associates (R)
  19. ^ SurveyUSA
  20. ^ p. 2
  21. ^ Richard Quinn & Associates (R)
  22. ^ Public Opinion Strategies (R)
  23. ^ Richard Quinn & Associates (R)
  24. ^ a b c p. 2
  25. ^ Basswood Research (R)
  26. ^ "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved May 2, 2021.
  27. ^ SurveyUSA
  28. ^ McLaughlin & Associates
  29. ^ SurveyUSA
  30. ^ Mason-Dixon
  31. ^ SurveyUSA
  32. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  33. ^ McLaughlin & Associates (R)
  34. ^ Mason-Dixon
  35. ^ Global Strategy Group (D)
  36. ^ SurveyUSA
  37. ^ Global Strategy Group (D)
  38. ^ SurveyUSA
  39. ^ SurveyUSA
  40. ^ Public Opinion Strategies (R)
  41. ^ a b Hickman Research (D)
  42. ^ a b c Hickman Research (D)
  43. ^ a b DSCC (D)
  44. ^ Hickman Research (D)
  45. ^ McLaughlin & Associates (R)
  46. ^ p. 2
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