2016 United States Senate election in Vermont

2016 United States Senate election in Vermont
	Leahy: 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% ; Milne: 40-50% 50-60% 60-70%
U.S. senator before election; Patrick Leahy; Democratic	Elected U.S. Senator ; Patrick Leahy; Democratic

The 2016 United States Senate election in Vermont was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Vermont, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held August 9.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Patrick Leahy, the most senior member in the Senate, the longest-serving U.S. Senator from Vermont, and the first Democrat to be elected to a Senate seat in Vermont, won re-election to a record eighth term in office.^[1]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Cris Ericson, perennial candidate, later ran as Marijuana Party nominee (also ran for governor)^[2]
Patrick Leahy, incumbent U.S. Senator

Results

Democratic primary results^[3]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Patrick Leahy (incumbent)	62,412	89.15%
	Democratic	Cris Ericson	7,595	10.85%
Total votes			70,007	100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Scott Milne, businessman, candidate for the State House in 2006 and nominee for governor in 2014^[4]^[5]

Liberty Union primary

This election was the last in which Diamondstone ran prior to his death in 2017. Diamondstone had run for Vermont statewide office in every biennial election since 1970.

Candidates

Declared

Peter Diamondstone, LU party co-founder, lawyer, and perennial candidate^[6]

Other candidacies

Declared

Jerry Trudell, independent candidate, environmental activist, candidate for House of Representatives in 2014^[7]
Cris Ericson, Marijuana Party perennial candidate, previously sought Democratic nomination

General election

Candidates

Patrick Leahy (D)
Scott Milne (R)
Jerry Trudell (I)
Peter Diamondstone (LU)
Cris Ericson (MJ)

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[8]	Safe D	November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[9]	Safe D	November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report^[10]	Safe D	November 3, 2016
Daily Kos^[11]	Safe D	November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics^[12]	Safe D	November 7, 2016

Debates

Dates	Location	Leahy	Milne	Ericson	Trudell	Diamondstone	Link
October 18, 2016	Burlington, Vermont	Participant	Participant	Participant	Participant	Participant	^[13]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Patrick Leahy (D)	Scott Milne (R)	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey^[14]	November 1–7, 2016	454	± 4.6%	75%	24%	—	1%
SurveyMonkey^[15]	October 31 – November 6, 2016	447	± 4.6%	75%	24%	—	1%
SurveyMonkey^[16]	October 28 – November 3, 2016	449	± 4.6%	69%	28%	—	3%
SurveyMonkey^[17]	October 27 – November 2, 2016	424	± 4.6%	65%	32%	—	3%
SurveyMonkey^[18]	October 26 – November 1, 2016	428	± 4.6%	64%	34%	—	2%
SurveyMonkey^[19]	October 25–31, 2016	436	± 4.6%	64%	33%	—	3%
Braun Research/WCAX^[20]	October 19–22, 2016	603	± 4.0%	64%	29%	3%	5%
Castleton University^[21]	September 29 – October 14, 2016	579	± 3.9%	59%	22%	7%	10%
Emerson College^[22]	September 2–5, 2016	600	± 3.9%	57%	34%	4%	5%
Castleton University^[23]	July 11–23, 2016	637	± 3.9%	62%	23%	1%	11%

Results

United States Senate election in Vermont, 2016^[24]^[25]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Patrick Leahy (incumbent)	192,243	61.26%	−3.10%
	Republican	Scott Milne	103,637	33.03%	+2.10%
	Marijuana	Cris Ericson	9,156	2.92%	+1.76%
	Independent	Jerry Trudell	5,223	1.66%	N/A
	Liberty Union	Peter Diamondstone	3,241	1.03%	+0.42%
	Write-in		309	0.10%	N/A
Total votes			313,809	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Essex (largest town: Lunenburg)

References

^ Emily Cahn; Alexis Levinson (January 28, 2015). "Senators Confirm Re-Election Bids for 2016". Roll Call. Archived from the original on January 29, 2015. Retrieved January 29, 2015.
^ O'Gorman, Josh (May 27, 2016). "Voters to see familiar faces and new races". The Rutland Herald. Archived from the original on May 30, 2016. Retrieved June 2, 2016.
^ "Vermont Results". Politico. August 24, 2010. Retrieved August 24, 2010.
^ Heintz, Paul (October 5, 2015). "Scott Milne Considers Challenging Patrick Leahy". Seven Days. Retrieved October 7, 2015.
^ Gram, Dave (May 26, 2016). "Milne hopes to unseat Sen. Leahy". The Burlington Free Press. Retrieved May 27, 2016.
^ "Candidates register to appear on ballots". The Burlington Free Press. Retrieved June 5, 2016.
^ "Jerry Trudell for Senate VT". Archived from the original on October 25, 2016. Retrieved October 24, 2016.
^ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
^ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
^ "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
^ "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
^ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
^ Full debate - C-SPAN
^ SurveyMonkey
^ SurveyMonkey
^ SurveyMonkey
^ SurveyMonkey
^ SurveyMonkey
^ SurveyMonkey
^ Braun Research/WCAX Archived October 27, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
^ Castleton University
^ Emerson College
^ Castleton University
^ "Vermont Election Results". Burlington Free Press. Retrieved January 29, 2017.^{[dead link‍]}
^ "Official Results - General Election - November 8, 2016". Vermont Secretary of State. November 8, 2016. Archived from the original on May 28, 2019. Retrieved December 28, 2016.

External links

Official campaign websites (Archived)

Debates

Complete video of October 18, 2016 debate

[RCRG-1] Emily Cahn; Alexis Levinson (January 28, 2015). "Senators Confirm Re-Election Bids for 2016". Roll Call. Archived from the original on January 29, 2015. Retrieved January 29, 2015.

[2] O'Gorman, Josh (May 27, 2016). "Voters to see familiar faces and new races". The Rutland Herald. Archived from the original on May 30, 2016. Retrieved June 2, 2016.

[VTPolitico-3] "Vermont Results". Politico. August 24, 2010. Retrieved August 24, 2010.

[4] Heintz, Paul (October 5, 2015). "Scott Milne Considers Challenging Patrick Leahy". Seven Days. Retrieved October 7, 2015.

[5] Gram, Dave (May 26, 2016). "Milne hopes to unseat Sen. Leahy". The Burlington Free Press. Retrieved May 27, 2016.

[Candidates_register_to_appear_on_ballots-6] "Candidates register to appear on ballots". The Burlington Free Press. Retrieved June 5, 2016.

[Jerry_Trudell_for_Senate_official_campaign_website-7] "Jerry Trudell for Senate VT". Archived from the original on October 25, 2016. Retrieved October 24, 2016.

[8] "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.

[9] "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.

[10] "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.

[11] "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.

[12] "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.

[13] Full debate - C-SPAN

[14] SurveyMonkey

[15] SurveyMonkey

[16] SurveyMonkey

[17] SurveyMonkey

[18] SurveyMonkey

[19] SurveyMonkey

[20] Braun Research/WCAX Archived October 27, 2016, at the Wayback Machine

[21] Castleton University

[22] Emerson College

[23] Castleton University

[24] "Vermont Election Results". Burlington Free Press. Retrieved January 29, 2017.^{[dead link‍]}

[geresults-25] "Official Results - General Election - November 8, 2016". Vermont Secretary of State. November 8, 2016. Archived from the original on May 28, 2019. Retrieved December 28, 2016.

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