2016 United States Senate election in Washington

The 2016 United States Senate election in Washington was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Washington. Incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray ran for re-election to a fifth term,[1] and won by a significant margin, winning 59% of the vote, to Republican Chris Vance's 41%.

2016 United States Senate election in Washington

← 2010 November 8, 2016 2022 →
 
Nominee Patty Murray Chris Vance
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,913,979 1,329,338
Percentage 58.83% 40.86%

Murray:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Vance:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      50%      No data

U.S. senator before election

Patty Murray
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Patty Murray
Democratic

The election took place concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Under Washington's nonpartisan blanket primary law, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party. In the August 2 primary, voters had the choice to vote for any candidate, regardless of their party affiliation. The top two finishers—regardless of party—advance to the general election in November, even if a candidate manages to receive a majority of the votes cast in the primary election. California is the only other state with this system, a so-called "top two primary" (Louisiana has a similar "jungle primary", but there is no general election if one candidate receives 50% plus one vote of all votes cast in the primary).

As of 2024, this is the last time a Democrat running statewide for federal office has won Grays Harbor and Mason Counties.

Primary election

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Democratic Party

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Declared

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  • Thor Amundson[2]
  • Phil Cornell, retired communications technician[3]
  • Patty Murray, incumbent U.S. Senator
  • Mohammed Said[2]

Republican Party

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Declared

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Declined

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Third party and independent candidates

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Declared

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  • Pano Churchill (Lincoln Caucus)[2]
  • Ted Cummings (independent)[2]
  • Zach Haller (independent)[2]
  • Chuck Jackson (independent)[2]
  • Donna Rae Lands (Conservative)[2]
  • Mike Luke (Libertarian)[2]
  • Jeremy Teuton (System Reboot)[2]
  • Alex Tsimerman (StandUpAmerica)[2]
  • Sam Wright (Human Rights)[2]

Results

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Results by county:
  Murray—30–40%
  Murray—40–50%
  Murray—50–60%
  Murray—60–70%
  Vance—30–40%
  Vance—40–50%
Blanket primary election results[11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Patty Murray (incumbent) 745,421 53.82%
Republican Chris Vance 381,004 27.51%
Republican Eric John Makus 57,825 4.18%
Democratic Phil Cornell 46,460 3.35%
Republican Scott Nazarino 41,542 3.00%
Libertarian Mike Luke 20,988 1.52%
Democratic Mohammad Said 13,362 0.96%
Independent Donna Rae Lands 11,472 0.83%
Independent Ted Cummings 11,028 0.80%
Independent Sam Wright 10,751 0.78%
Republican Uncle Mover 8,569 0.62%
Independent Jeremy Teuton 7,991 0.58%
Democratic Thor Amundson 7,906 0.57%
Independent Chuck Jackson 6,318 0.46%
Independent Pano Churchill 5,150 0.37%
Independent Zach Haller 5,092 0.37%
Independent Alex Tsimerman 4,117 0.30%
Total votes 1,384,996 100.00%

General election

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Debates

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Dates Location Murray Vance Link
October 16, 2016 Seattle, Washington Participant Participant [12]
October 23, 2016 Redmond, Washington Participant Participant [13]

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[14] Safe D November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[16] Safe D November 3, 2016
Daily Kos[17] Safe D November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics[18] Safe D November 7, 2016

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Patty
Murray (D)
Chris
Vance (R)
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey[19] November 1–7, 2016 1,451 ± 4.6% 59% 37% 4%
Insights West[20] November 4–6, 2016 402 ± 4.9% 53% 37% 11%
SurveyMonkey[21] October 31–November 6, 2016 1,292 ± 4.6% 59% 37% 4%
SurveyMonkey[22] October 28–November 3, 2016 944 ± 4.6% 61% 36% 3%
SurveyUSA[23] October 31–November 2, 2016 667 ± 3.9% 53% 41% 6%
SurveyMonkey[24] October 27–November 2, 2016 807 ± 4.6% 61% 36% 3%
SurveyMonkey[25] October 26–November 1, 2016 698 ± 4.6% 61% 36% 3%
SurveyMonkey[26] October 25–31, 2016 745 ± 4.6% 61% 36% 3%
Elway Poll[27] October 20–22, 2016 502 ± 4.5% 58% 34% 8%
KCTS 9/YouGov[28] October 6–13, 2016 750 ± 4.4% 55% 39% 16%
Strategies 360/KOMO News[29] September 29–October 3, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 57% 36% 6%
Emerson College[30] September 25–26, 2016 700 ± 3.6% 48% 41% 3% 8%
Insights West[31] September 12–14, 2016 505 ± 4.4% 46% 25% 2% 27%
Elway Poll[32] August 9–13, 2016 500 ± 4.5% 52% 34% 14%
Elway Poll[33] April 14–17, 2016 503 ± 3.5% 50% 32% 18%
Elway Poll[34] October 13–15, 2015 500 ± 4.5% 44% 23% 33%
Hypothetical polling

with Rob McKenna

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Patty
Murray (D)
Rob
McKenna (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[35] May 14–17, 2015 879 ± 3.3% 46% 41% 12%

with Dave Reichert

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Patty
Murray (D)
Dave
Reichert (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[35] May 14–17, 2015 879 ± 3.3% 48% 37% 15%

with Jaime Herrera Beutler

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Patty
Murray (D)
Jaime
Herrera
Beutler (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[35] May 14–17, 2015 879 ± 3.3% 47% 37% 17%

with Cathy McMorris Rodgers

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Patty
Murray (D)
Cathy
McMorris
Rodgers (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[35] May 14–17, 2015 879 ± 3.3% 48% 35% 17%

Results

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At 1,913,979 votes, Murray made history by receiving the most votes in a United States Senate election in Washington state.

United States Senate election in Washington, 2016 [36]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Patty Murray (incumbent) 1,913,979 58.83% +6.75%
Republican Chris Vance 1,329,338 40.86% −6.51%
Write-in 10,071 0.31% -0.24%
Total votes 3,253,388 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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By congressional district

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Murray won 7 of 10 congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican.[37]

District Murray Vance Representative
1st 56.25% 43.75% Suzan DelBene
2nd 61.31% 38.69% Rick Larsen
3rd 49.46% 50.54% Jaime Herrera Beutler
4th 44.13% 55.87% Dan Newhouse
5th 47.84% 52.16% Cathy McMorris Rodgers
6th 58.15% 41.85% Derek Kilmer
7th 82.62% 17.38% Jim McDermott
Pramila Jayapal
8th 51.67% 48.33% Dave Reichert
9th 72.08% 27.92% Adam Smith
10th 57.71% 42.29% Denny Heck

See also

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References

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  1. ^ Brunner, Jim (February 9, 2014). "Patty Murray to seek fifth Senate term in 2016". The Seattle Times. Retrieved October 16, 2014.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n Camden, Jim (May 23, 2016). "Final list of candidates in the August primary". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved May 24, 2016.
  3. ^ http://www.philcornell4ussenate.org Archived May 17, 2016, at the Wayback Machine Phil Cornell (D) for Senate
  4. ^ Pathé, Simone (September 8, 2015). "Former Washington GOP Chairman to Challenge Patty Murray". Roll Call. Archived from the original on October 26, 2015. Retrieved September 8, 2015.
  5. ^ a b c d e Pathe, Simone (May 8, 2015). "GOP Searches for Patty Murray Challenger". Roll Call. Archived from the original on May 9, 2015. Retrieved May 8, 2015.
  6. ^ Brunner, Jim (May 14, 2015). "Port Commissioner Bill Bryant announces run for governor". The Seattle Times. Retrieved May 14, 2015.
  7. ^ a b "Washington Voters Grow Further In Support of Gay Marriage, Marijuana, Background Checks" (PDF) (Press release). Public Policy Polling. May 20, 2015. Retrieved February 19, 2016.
  8. ^ Rosenthal, Brian (February 19, 2013). "Former AG McKenna joins law firm". Yakima Herald. Retrieved March 4, 2013.
  9. ^ Joseph, Cameron (August 9, 2013). "Rep. Reichert 'thinking about' run for Senate, governor in Washington". The Hill. Retrieved October 16, 2014.
  10. ^ Brunner, Jim (October 16, 2015). "Dave Reichert won't run against Jay Inslee for governor". The Seattle Times. Retrieved November 1, 2015.
  11. ^ "August 2, 2016 Primary Results - U.S. Senator". Washington Secretary of State. Archived from the original on August 22, 2016. Retrieved August 22, 2016.
  12. ^ Full debate - C-SPAN
  13. ^ Full debate - C-SPAN
  14. ^ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
  15. ^ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  16. ^ "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  17. ^ "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
  18. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
  19. ^ SurveyMonkey
  20. ^ Insights West[usurped]
  21. ^ SurveyMonkey
  22. ^ SurveyMonkey
  23. ^ SurveyUSA
  24. ^ SurveyMonkey
  25. ^ SurveyMonkey
  26. ^ SurveyMonkey
  27. ^ Elway Poll
  28. ^ KCTS 9/YouGov Archived October 27, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  29. ^ Strategies 360/KOMO News
  30. ^ Emerson College
  31. ^ Insights West[usurped]
  32. ^ Elway Poll
  33. ^ Elway Poll
  34. ^ Elway Poll
  35. ^ a b c d Public Policy Polling
  36. ^ "November 8, 2016 General Election Results". Washington Secretary of State. Retrieved December 3, 2016.
  37. ^ Results (PDF). wei.sos.wa.gov (Report). Archived from the original (PDF) on June 30, 2018.
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Official campaign websites (Archived)