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2008 United States presidential election in Idaho

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Main article: 2008 United States presidential election

The 2008 United States presidential election in Idaho took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose four representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

2008 United States presidential election in Idaho
← 2004 November 4, 2008 2012 →
 
Nominee John McCain Barack Obama
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Arizona Illinois
Running mate Sarah Palin Joe Biden
Electoral vote 4 0
Popular vote 403,012 236,440
Percentage 61.21% 35.91%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Idaho was won by Republican nominee John McCain by a 25.3% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 17 major news organizations considered this a state McCain would win, or a red state. Polling in the state gave a sizable lead to McCain over Democrat Barack Obama, with most polling predicting a McCain win of at least 30 percentage points. Despite his landslide defeat in the state, Obama over-performed his polls and greatly improved on Kerry's performance four years earlier. Idaho has not gone Democratic for President since Lyndon B. Johnson narrowly won it in 1964.

Primaries

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Campaign

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Predictions

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There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report[1] Likely R
Cook Political Report[2] Solid R
The Takeaway[3] Solid R
Electoral-vote.com[4] Solid R
Washington Post[5] Solid R
Politico[6] Solid R
RealClearPolitics[7] Solid R
FiveThirtyEight[5] Solid R
CQ Politics[8] Solid R
The New York Times[9] Solid R
CNN[10] Safe R
NPR[5] Solid R
MSNBC[5] Solid R
Fox News[11] Likely R
Associated Press[12] Likely R
Rasmussen Reports[13] Safe R

Polling

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Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the 2008 United States presidential election: Idaho

McCain won every pre-election poll with a double-digit margin and with at least 52 percent of the vote. The final three poll average gave the Republican 66 percent to Obama's 29 percent.[14]

Fundraising

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Obama raised $874,523. McCain raised $441,338.[15]

Advertising and visits

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Obama spent $268. McCain spent $434.[16] Neither campaign visited the state.[17]

Analysis

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With a substantial Mormon population, Idaho is one of the most reliably GOP bastions in the country. Although Barack Obama became the first Democratic presidential candidate since Michael Dukakis in 1988 to eclipse 35 percent of the vote in solidly red state Idaho,[18] the state was still won handily by John McCain by a margin of approximately 25.34 percent. McCain carried 41 of the state's 44 counties, with Obama winning Blaine County, home to Sun Valley and several other prime ski resorts; Latah County, home to the college town of Moscow, and Teton County, a highly affluent suburb of Teton County, Wyoming, and the last until Joe Biden won it in 2020 United States presidential election in Idaho. Obama was the first Democrat to carry Teton County since Harry S. Truman in 1948.[19][20] He also narrowed the Republican margins of victory in Ada County, and in the state capital and city of Boise to single digits. McCain's victory in Idaho, however, was less than that of George W. Bush who carried the state with 68.38 percent of the vote in 2004, a 12.78-point swing to the Democrats in Idaho.

With 61.21 percent of the popular vote, Idaho proved to be McCain's fourth strongest state in 2008 election after Oklahoma, Wyoming and Utah.[21]

Obama became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Nez Perce County since Grover Cleveland in 1892.

During the same election, Republicans held onto the open U.S. Senate seat vacated by Republican Larry Craig who reluctantly retired after it was revealed that he had solicited a man for sex in the men's restroom at an airport in Minneapolis. Then-Lieutenant Governor Jim Risch, a Republican, was elected with 57.65% of the vote over Democrat Larry LaRocco who received 34.11%. A pro-life independent candidate received 5.35 point while Libertarian Kent Marmon received 1.54% and Rex Rammell, a far right-wing candidate who also ran as an Independent, received 1.34%.

At the state level, Republicans expanded their supermajority status in the Idaho state legislature as they picked up one seat in the Idaho House of Representatives.

Results

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2008 United States presidential election in Idaho[22]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 403,012 61.21% 4
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 236,440 35.91% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 7,175 1.09% 0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 4,747 0.72% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 3,658 0.56% 0
Write-ins Write-ins 3,340[a] 0.51% 0
American Independent (Write-in) Alan Keyes (Write-in) Brian Rohrbough 40[b] 0.01% 0
Green (Write-in) Cynthia McKinney (Write-in) Rosa Clemente 39[b] 0.01% 0
Socialist (Write-in) Brian Moore (Write-in) Stewart Alexander 3[b] 0.00% 0
Totals 658,454 100.00% 4
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 60.1%

Results by county

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County John McCain
Republican 		Barack Obama
Democratic 		Ralph Nader[23]
Independent 		Charles Baldwin[23]
Constitution 		Bob Barr[23]
Libertarian 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # % # % # %
Ada 93,328 51.63% 82,236 45.49% 1,978 1.09% 777 0.43% 1,083 0.60% 11,092 6.14% 180,760
Adams 1,517 65.39% 728 31.38% 36 1.55% 20 0.86% 19 0.82% 789 34.01% 2,320
Bannock 19,356 54.62% 14,792 41.74% 485 1.37% 257 0.73% 215 0.61% 4,564 12.88% 35,437
Bear Lake 2,377 80.77% 502 17.06% 26 0.88% 27 0.92% 11 0.37% 1,875 63.71% 2,943
Benewah 2,646 63.54% 1,407 33.79% 48 1.15% 38 0.91% 25 0.60% 1,239 29.75% 4,164
Bingham 12,230 71.29% 4,424 25.79% 207 1.21% 203 1.18% 91 0.53% 7,806 45.50% 17,156
Blaine 3,439 32.53% 6,947 65.71% 106 1.00% 16 0.15% 63 0.60% -3,508 -33.18% 10,573
Boise 2,433 64.48% 1,240 32.87% 48 1.27% 25 0.66% 27 0.72% 1,193 31.61% 3,773
Bonner 11,145 57.01% 7,840 40.10% 259 1.32% 195 1.00% 108 0.55% 3,305 16.91% 19,550
Bonneville 29,334 70.34% 11,417 27.38% 334 0.80% 362 0.87% 256 0.61% 17,917 42.96% 41,703
Boundary 3,078 65.02% 1,484 31.35% 67 1.42% 77 1.63% 27 0.57% 1,594 33.67% 4,734
Butte 1,056 75.11% 318 22.62% 18 1.28% 7 0.50% 7 0.50% 738 52.49% 1,406
Camas 422 68.28% 187 30.26% 5 0.81% 1 0.16% 3 0.49% 235 38.02% 618
Canyon 42,752 66.07% 20,147 31.14% 639 0.99% 387 0.60% 321 0.50% 22,605 34.93% 64,706
Caribou 2,656 80.44% 553 16.75% 56 1.70% 23 0.70% 14 0.42% 2,103 63.69% 3,302
Cassia 6,309 79.93% 1,332 16.88% 86 1.09% 72 0.91% 43 0.54% 4,977 63.05% 7,893
Clark 305 81.33% 64 17.07% 2 0.53% 3 0.80% 1 0.27% 241 64.26% 375
Clearwater 2,569 65.77% 1,211 31.00% 60 1.54% 35 0.90% 31 0.79% 1,358 34.77% 3,906
Custer 1,694 71.99% 611 25.97% 18 0.76% 17 0.72% 12 0.51% 1,083 46.02% 2,353
Elmore 5,665 66.76% 2,591 30.53% 110 1.30% 37 0.44% 33 0.39% 3,074 36.23% 8,486
Franklin 4,246 83.68% 600 11.82% 48 0.95% 142 2.80% 37 0.73% 3,646 71.86% 5,074
Fremont 4,700 79.92% 1,065 18.11% 46 0.78% 44 0.75% 25 0.43% 3,635 61.81% 5,881
Gem 5,585 70.27% 2,166 27.25% 112 1.41% 52 0.65% 32 0.40% 3,419 43.02% 7,948
Gooding 3,765 69.84% 1,489 27.62% 75 1.39% 35 0.65% 27 0.50% 2,276 42.22% 5,391
Idaho 5,895 71.79% 2,017 24.56% 77 0.94% 167 2.03% 54 0.66% 3,878 47.23% 8,212
Jefferson 8,540 81.79% 1,641 15.72% 72 0.69% 138 1.32% 50 0.48% 6,899 66.07% 10,441
Jerome 4,897 71.52% 1,794 26.20% 74 1.08% 36 0.53% 46 0.67% 3,103 45.32% 6,847
Kootenai 38,387 61.38% 22,120 35.37% 592 0.95% 565 0.90% 268 0.43% 16,267 26.01% 62,535
Latah 7,988 44.59% 9,195 51.32% 199 1.11% 204 1.14% 128 0.71% -1,207 -6.73% 17,916
Lemhi 2,938 71.57% 1,061 25.85% 29 0.71% 45 1.10% 32 0.78% 1,877 45.72% 4,105
Lewis 1,275 70.68% 479 26.55% 20 1.11% 23 1.27% 7 0.39% 796 44.13% 1,804
Lincoln 1,232 65.88% 545 29.14% 77 4.12% 10 0.53% 6 0.32% 687 36.74% 1,870
Madison 11,131 85.24% 1,627 12.46% 81 0.62% 149 1.14% 69 0.53% 9,504 72.78% 13,058
Minidoka 5,087 73.83% 1,630 23.66% 79 1.15% 52 0.75% 42 0.61% 3,457 50.17% 6,890
Nez Perce 10,357 58.11% 7,123 39.97% 189 1.06% 82 0.46% 72 0.40% 3,234 18.14% 17,823
Oneida 1,724 79.74% 381 17.62% 11 0.51% 27 1.25% 19 0.88% 1,343 62.12% 2,162
Owyhee 3,024 74.52% 944 23.26% 37 0.91% 29 0.71% 24 0.59% 2,080 51.26% 4,058
Payette 5,988 68.88% 2,415 27.78% 105 1.21% 66 0.76% 39 0.45% 3,573 41.10% 8,693
Power 1,754 61.72% 1,027 36.14% 28 0.99% 13 0.46% 20 0.70% 727 25.58% 2,842
Shoshone 2,953 52.11% 2,521 44.49% 111 1.96% 42 0.74% 39 0.69% 432 7.62% 5,667
Teton 2,263 48.57% 2,302 49.41% 61 1.31% 13 0.28% 19 0.41% -39 -0.84% 4,659
Twin Falls 19,032 66.52% 8,621 30.13% 358 1.25% 181 0.63% 152 0.53% 10,411 36.39% 28,613
Valley 2,772 52.33% 2,405 45.40% 65 1.23% 21 0.40% 33 0.62% 367 6.93% 5,297
Washington 3,168 70.31% 1,241 27.54% 41 0.91% 28 0.62% 28 0.62% 1,927 42.77% 4,506
Totals 403,012 61.21% 236,440 35.91% 7,175 1.09% 4,747 0.72% 3,658 0.56% 166,572 25.30% 658,454
 
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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By congressional district

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John McCain solidly swept both Idaho's congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 61.82% 35.88% Bill Sali (110th Congress)
Walt Minnick (111th Congress)
2nd 61.19% 36.34% Mike Simpson

Electors

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Main article: List of 2008 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Idaho cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Idaho is allocated four electors because it has two congressional districts and two senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of four electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins a plurality of votes in the state is awarded all four electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[24] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All four were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:[25]

  1. Darlene Bramon
  2. Ben Doty
  3. John Erickson
  4. Melinda Smyser

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ These scattered write-in votes were not separated by county.[23]
  2. ^ a b c None of these designated write-in candidate votes were separated by county.[23]

References

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  1. ^ "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". January 1, 2009. Archived from the original on January 1, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  2. ^ "Presidential". May 5, 2015. Archived from the original on May 5, 2015. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  3. ^ "Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions". April 22, 2009. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  4. ^ "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily". electoral-vote.com. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  5. ^ a b c d Based on Takeaway
  6. ^ "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com". www.politico.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  7. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map". Archived from the original on June 5, 2008.
  8. ^ "CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on June 14, 2009. Retrieved December 20, 2009.
  9. ^ Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (November 4, 2008). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  10. ^ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. October 31, 2008. Archived from the original on June 19, 2010. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  11. ^ "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
  12. ^ "roadto270". hosted.ap.org. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  13. ^ "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports". www.rasmussenreports.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  14. ^ Election 2008 Polls – Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  15. ^ "Presidential Campaign Finance". Archived from the original on March 24, 2009. Retrieved August 20, 2009.
  16. ^ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending – Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  17. ^ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits – Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  18. ^ 1988 Presidential General Election Results – Idaho
  19. ^ The Political Graveyard; Teton County, Idaho
  20. ^ "Idaho Election Results". The New York Times. November 3, 2020.
  21. ^ "2008 Presidential Election Statistics". Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Retrieved March 5, 2018.
  22. ^ "Atlas of U.S. Presidential Election Results 2008 – Idaho". Retrieved January 12, 2013.
  23. ^ a b c d e Our Campaigns; ID US President Race, November 04, 2008
  24. ^ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved November 1, 2008.
  25. ^ U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election – Certificates
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