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2004 United States presidential election in Indiana

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Main article: 2004 United States presidential election

The 2004 United States presidential election in Indiana took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 11 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

2004 United States presidential election in Indiana
← 2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →
Turnout57.4% (of registered voters)
53.7% (of voting age population)
 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,479,438 969,011
Percentage 59.94% 39.26%
County Results
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

Indiana was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 20.68% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state, even though Democratic Senator Evan Bayh overwhelmingly won re-election on the same ballot. Indiana had not voted Democratic in a presidential election since 1964, but would buck this trend 4 years later by voting for Senator Barack Obama of neighboring Illinois.

Bush became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Monroe County since Abraham Lincoln in 1864, as well as the first to do so without carrying Marion County since Benjamin Harrison in 1888.

Primaries

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Campaign

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Predictions

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There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report Solid R
Associated Press Solid R
CNN Likely R
Cook Political Report Solid R
Newsweek Solid R
New York Times Solid R
Rasmussen Reports Likely R
Research 2000 Solid R
Washington Post Likely R
Washington Times Solid R
Zogby International Likely R
Washington Dispatch Likely R

Polling

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Bush won every single pre-election poll, and won each by a double-digit margin of victory and with at least 52% of the vote. The final 3 polls averaged Bush leading 56% to 40%.[2]

Fundraising

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Bush raised $2,491,828.[3] Kerry raised $681,272.[4]

Advertising and visits

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Neither campaign visited or advertised in this state during the fall campaign.[5][6]

Analysis

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Indiana has long been considered to be a Republican stronghold.[7][8] The Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI) rates Indiana as a R+8. Indiana was one of only ten states to support Republican Wendell Willkie in 1940.[9] On 14 occasions has the Republican candidate defeated the Democrat by a double-digit margin in the state, including six times where a Republican won the state by more than 20%.[10] In 2000 and 2004, George W. Bush won the state by a wide margin while the election was much closer overall. The state has only supported a Democrat for president five times since 1900. In 1912, Woodrow Wilson became the first Democrat to win the state in the 20th Century, with 43% of the vote. 20 years later in 1932, Franklin D. Roosevelt won the state with 55% of the vote over incumbent Republican Herbert Hoover. Roosevelt won the state again in 1936. In 1964, 56% of voters supported Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson over Republican Barry Goldwater. Statistically, Indiana is more of a stronghold for Republican presidential candidates than for candidates elected to state government. Whereas only five Democratic presidential nominees have carried Indiana since 1900, eleven Democrats were elected governor during that time. Before Mitch Daniels became governor in 2005, Democrats had held the office for 16 consecutive years.

Historically, Republicans have been strongest in the eastern and central portions of the state, while Democrats have been strongest in the northwestern part of the state. Occasionally, certain counties in the southern part of the state will vote Democratic. Marion County, Indiana's most populated county, supported the Republican candidates from 1968 to 2000, before backing the Democrats in the 2004 and subsequent 2008, and 2012 elections. Indiana's second most populated county, Lake County, is a strong supporter of the Democratic party that has not voted for a Republican since 1972.[10] In 2005, the Bay Area Center for Voting Research rated the most liberal and conservative cities in the United States on voting statistics in the 2004 presidential election, based on 237 cities with populations of more than 100,000. Five Indiana cities were mentioned in the study. On the liberal side, Gary was ranked second and South Bend came in at 83. Regarding conservative cities, Fort Wayne was 44th, Evansville was 60th and Indianapolis was 82nd on the list.[11]

As of the 2024 presidential election, this is the last election in which St. Joseph County voted for the Republican candidate.

Results

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[13]
2004 United States presidential election in Indiana[12]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican George Walker Bush (Incumbent) 1,479,438 59.94%
Democratic John Forbes Kerry 969,011 39.26%
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 18,058 0.73%
Write In Ralph Nader 1,328 0.1%
Write In David Cobb 102 0.0%
Write In John Joseph Kennedy 37 0.0%
Write In Walt Brown 22 0.0%
Write In Lawson Mitchell Bone 6 0.0%
Majority 510,427 20.68%
Turnout 2,468,002 58%

By county

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County George W. Bush
Republican 		John Kerry
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adams 9,734 72.97% 3,512 26.33% 94 0.70% 6,222 46.64% 13,340
Allen 82,013 63.28% 46,710 36.04% 886 0.68% 35,303 27.24% 129,609
Bartholomew 19,093 66.96% 9,191 32.23% 231 0.81% 9,902 34.73% 28,515
Benton 2,797 70.07% 1,135 28.43% 60 1.50% 1,662 41.64% 3,992
Blackford 3,447 64.07% 1,903 35.37% 30 0.56% 1,544 28.70% 5,380
Boone 17,055 74.48% 5,636 24.61% 207 0.91% 11,419 49.87% 22,898
Brown 4,512 61.56% 2,730 37.24% 88 1.20% 1,782 24.32% 7,330
Carroll 5,868 67.93% 2,689 31.13% 81 0.93% 3,179 36.80% 8,638
Cass 9,480 68.05% 4,315 30.97% 136 0.97% 5,165 37.08% 13,931
Clark 24,495 57.86% 17,648 41.68% 194 0.46% 6,847 16.18% 42,337
Clay 7,361 68.26% 3,333 30.91% 89 0.82% 4,028 37.35% 10,783
Clinton 8,471 71.32% 3,335 28.08% 71 0.60% 5,136 43.24% 11,877
Crawford 2,609 57.04% 1,932 42.24% 33 0.72% 677 14.80% 4,574
Daviess 7,936 74.87% 2,573 24.28% 90 0.84% 5,363 50.59% 10,599
Dearborn 14,231 67.87% 6,596 31.46% 142 0.68% 7,635 36.41% 20,969
Decatur 7,499 73.53% 2,621 25.70% 79 0.77% 4,878 47.83% 10,199
DeKalb 10,468 67.96% 4,810 31.23% 125 0.81% 5,658 36.73% 15,403
Delaware 27,064 56.46% 20,436 42.63% 439 0.92% 6,628 13.83% 47,939
Dubois 11,726 68.71% 5,210 30.53% 130 0.76% 6,516 38.18% 17,066
Elkhart 42,967 70.00% 17,966 29.27% 447 0.73% 25,001 40.73% 61,380
Fayette 5,761 60.85% 3,626 38.30% 81 0.86% 2,135 22.55% 9,468
Floyd 19,877 58.65% 13,857 40.89% 156 0.46% 6,020 17.76% 33,890
Fountain 5,260 67.40% 2,477 31.74% 67 0.86% 2,783 35.66% 7,804
Franklin 6,977 69.83% 2,925 29.27% 90 0.90% 4,052 40.56% 9,992
Fulton 6,027 69.25% 2,607 29.96% 69 0.79% 3,420 39.29% 8,703
Gibson 9,133 62.49% 5,378 36.80% 103 0.70% 3,755 25.69% 14,614
Grant 18,769 68.35% 8,509 30.99% 182 0.66% 10,260 37.36% 27,460
Greene 8,609 64.48% 4,606 34.50% 137 1.02% 4,003 29.98% 13,352
Hamilton 77,887 74.24% 26,388 25.15% 631 0.60% 51,499 49.09% 104,906
Hancock 20,771 74.54% 6,912 24.80% 184 0.66% 13,859 49.74% 27,867
Harrison 11,015 63.63% 6,171 35.65% 124 0.72% 4,844 27.98% 17,310
Hendricks 38,430 73.48% 13,548 25.90% 324 0.62% 24,882 47.58% 52,302
Henry 13,137 64.07% 7,176 35.00% 191 0.93% 5,961 29.07% 20,504
Howard 23,714 64.06% 12,998 35.11% 309 0.83% 10,716 28.95% 37,021
Huntington 11,617 74.34% 3,877 24.81% 133 0.85% 7,740 49.53% 15,627
Jackson 11,083 67.96% 5,092 31.22% 134 0.82% 5,991 36.74% 16,309
Jasper 8,056 68.02% 3,678 31.05% 110 0.93% 4,378 36.97% 11,844
Jay 5,427 65.93% 2,740 33.28% 65 0.79% 2,687 32.65% 8,232
Jefferson 7,763 59.85% 5,117 39.45% 91 0.70% 2,646 20.40% 12,971
Jennings 6,864 65.27% 3,538 33.64% 115 1.09% 3,326 31.63% 10,517
Johnson 37,765 73.68% 13,109 25.58% 381 0.75% 24,656 48.10% 51,255
Knox 9,990 63.44% 5,649 35.88% 107 0.68% 4,341 27.56% 15,746
Kosciusko 22,136 78.05% 5,977 21.08% 247 0.87% 16,159 56.97% 28,360
LaGrange 6,430 71.42% 2,523 28.02% 50 0.56% 3,907 43.40% 9,003
Lake 71,903 38.24% 114,743 61.03% 1,376 0.73% -42,840 -22.79% 188,022
LaPorte 20,916 49.09% 21,114 49.56% 576 1.36% -198 -0.47% 42,606
Lawrence 12,207 68.97% 5,346 30.21% 145 0.82% 6,861 38.76% 17,698
Madison 32,526 59.29% 21,882 39.89% 447 0.82% 10,644 19.40% 54,855
Marion 156,072 48.65% 162,249 50.57% 2,517 0.78% -6,177 -1.92% 320,838
Marshall 12,074 67.78% 5,593 31.40% 147 0.83% 6,481 36.38% 17,814
Martin 3,414 68.33% 1,522 30.46% 60 1.20% 1,892 37.87% 4,996
Miami 9,600 70.44% 3,886 28.51% 142 1.05% 5,714 41.93% 13,628
Monroe 22,834 45.25% 26,965 53.43% 668 1.32% -4,131 -8.18% 50,467
Montgomery 10,901 74.93% 3,536 24.31% 111 0.76% 7,365 50.62% 14,548
Morgan 19,197 73.75% 6,650 25.55% 182 0.70% 12,547 48.20% 26,029
Newton 3,757 64.24% 2,032 34.75% 59 1.01% 1,725 29.49% 5,848
Noble 10,859 69.26% 4,703 30.00% 117 0.74% 6,156 39.26% 15,679
Ohio 1,796 60.72% 1,139 38.51% 23 0.78% 657 22.21% 2,958
Orange 5,683 65.68% 2,885 33.34% 84 0.97% 2,798 32.34% 8,652
Owen 5,000 65.75% 2,536 33.35% 68 0.89% 2,464 32.40% 7,604
Parke 4,550 65.27% 2,362 33.88% 59 0.85% 2,188 31.39% 6,971
Perry 4,137 49.75% 4,131 49.68% 47 0.56% 6 0.07% 8,315
Pike 3,745 60.29% 2,418 38.92% 49 0.79% 1,327 21.37% 6,212
Porter 34,794 53.63% 29,388 45.30% 691 1.06% 5,406 8.33% 64,873
Posey 7,833 65.35% 4,085 34.08% 68 0.57% 3,748 31.27% 11,986
Pulaski 3,797 67.63% 1,750 31.17% 67 1.20% 2,047 36.46% 5,614
Putnam 8,908 67.81% 4,103 31.23% 125 0.95% 4,805 36.58% 13,136
Randolph 7,172 64.66% 3,812 34.37% 108 0.97% 3,360 30.29% 11,092
Ripley 8,224 69.49% 3,510 29.66% 100 0.84% 4,714 39.83% 11,834
Rush 5,363 72.27% 2,000 26.95% 58 0.78% 3,363 45.32% 7,421
Scott 4,793 55.24% 3,822 44.05% 62 0.71% 971 11.19% 8,677
Shelby 11,397 71.11% 4,519 28.20% 111 0.69% 6,878 42.91% 16,027
Spencer 5,934 59.79% 3,920 39.50% 70 0.70% 2,014 20.29% 9,924
St. Joseph 55,254 50.87% 52,637 48.46% 728 0.67% 2,617 2.41% 108,619
Starke 4,846 54.22% 3,987 44.61% 104 1.16% 859 9.61% 8,937
Steuben 8,433 65.35% 4,345 33.67% 127 0.99% 4,088 31.68% 12,905
Sullivan 4,999 59.55% 3,341 39.80% 54 0.64% 1,658 19.75% 8,394
Switzerland 2,161 58.87% 1,479 40.29% 31 0.84% 682 18.58% 3,671
Tippecanoe 30,897 59.01% 20,818 39.76% 645 1.23% 10,079 19.25% 52,360
Tipton 5,628 71.31% 2,203 27.91% 61 0.77% 3,425 43.40% 7,892
Union 2,266 67.76% 1,045 31.25% 33 0.99% 1,221 36.51% 3,344
Vanderburgh 41,463 58.68% 28,767 40.72% 424 0.60% 12,696 17.96% 70,654
Vermillion 3,536 50.39% 3,424 48.80% 57 0.81% 112 1.59% 7,017
Vigo 20,988 52.81% 18,426 46.36% 330 0.83% 2,562 6.45% 39,744
Wabash 9,607 70.63% 3,920 28.82% 75 0.55% 5,687 41.81% 13,602
Warren 2,565 64.77% 1,356 34.24% 39 0.98% 1,209 30.53% 3,960
Warrick 16,930 65.05% 8,980 34.51% 115 0.44% 7,950 30.54% 26,025
Washington 6,915 63.56% 3,879 35.65% 86 0.79% 3,036 27.91% 10,880
Wayne 16,586 59.97% 10,775 38.96% 296 1.07% 5,811 21.01% 27,657
Wells 9,168 74.21% 3,112 25.19% 74 0.60% 6,056 49.02% 12,354
White 6,974 67.28% 3,277 31.61% 115 1.11% 3,697 35.67% 10,366
Whitley 9,512 70.56% 3,880 28.78% 89 0.66% 5,632 41.78% 13,481
Totals 1,479,438 59.94% 969,011 39.26% 19,553 0.79% 510,427 20.68% 2,468,002
 
County Flips:

Counties that flipped Democratic to Republican

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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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By congressional district

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Bush won 7 of 9 congressional districts.[14]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 44% 55% Pete Visclosky
2nd 56% 43% Chris Chocola
3rd 68% 31% Mark Souder
4th 69% 30% Steve Buyer
5th 71% 28% Dan Burton
6th 64% 35% Mike Pence
7th 42% 58% Julia Carson
8th 62% 38% John Hostettler
9th 59% 40% Baron Hill
Mike Sodrel

Electors

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Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Indiana cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Indiana is allocated 11 electors because it has 9 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from state. All were pledged to and voted for Bush and Cheney.[15]

  1. Kenneth Culp
  2. John Zentz
  3. Michael Miner
  4. Saundra Huddleston
  5. Leeann Cook
  6. Ted Ogle
  7. Melissa Proffitt Reese
  8. Dudley Curea
  9. Larry Shickles
  10. James Kittle
  11. Jean Ann Harcourt

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Archived copy". dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on November 21, 2010. Retrieved January 13, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  2. ^ "2004 Presidential Election Polls. Indiana Polls". US Election Atlas.
  3. ^ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President".
  4. ^ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President".
  5. ^ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  6. ^ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  7. ^ "Indiana poll shows tight race with McCain, Obama". Fox News Channel. Associated Press. October 1, 2008. Retrieved August 10, 2009.
  8. ^ Purnick, Joyce (October 21, 2006). "The 2006 Campaign: Struggle for the House; In a G.O.P. Stronghold, 3 Districts in Indiana Are Now Battlegrounds". The New York Times. Retrieved August 10, 2009.
  9. ^ "Indiana". Funk & Wagnalls New World Encyclopedia. Funk & Wagnalls.
  10. ^ a b "Presidential General Election Map Comparison". uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved August 11, 2009.
  11. ^ Modie, Neil (August 12, 2005). "Where have Seattle's lefties gone?". Seattle Post-Intelligencer. Retrieved August 11, 2009.
  12. ^ "Indiana General Election November 2, 2004, Statewide". Indiana Secretary of State. November 2, 2004. Retrieved November 7, 2008.
  13. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on May 13, 2009. Retrieved July 17, 2009.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  14. ^ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".
  15. ^ "The Electoral College". May 20, 2019.
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