2016 United States presidential election in Oregon
The 2016 United States presidential election in Oregon was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Oregon voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Oregon has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]
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| Turnout | 70.26% (eligible voters)  [1][2] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The Democratic presidential candidate has won Oregon in every election since 1988. Clinton continued this tradition, carrying the state with 50% of the vote, a slightly reduced margin from Barack Obama in 2012, but with a slightly higher raw vote total, becoming only the second presidential candidate to win more than a million votes in the process. Trump received 39% of the vote, a smaller proportion of the vote compared to that of Mitt Romney in 2012. However, he did achieve a notable feat in carrying Columbia County, becoming the first Republican to do so since Herbert Hoover in 1928.[4] In addition, this was also the first presidential election since 1976 in which Clackamas County backed the losing candidate, with Trump becoming the first Republican ever to win the White House without carrying the county.
Primaries and Caucuses
editOregon held its presidential primaries on May 17, 2016.
Primary elections
editDemocratic primary
editTwo candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:
The 74 delegates from Oregon were allocated in this way. 41 delegates were allocated based on the popular vote in each congressional district with district 2 split (district 2 was split because of its size with district 2a including the northern part of the district and 2b containing the southern part of the district). Another 20 delegates were allocated proportionally based on the statewide popular vote. The state also had 13 super delegates.[5]
| Oregon Democratic primary, May 17, 2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Popular vote | Estimated delegates | |||
| Count | Percentage | Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |
| Bernie Sanders | 360,829 | 56.24% | 36 | 3 | 39 |
| Hillary Clinton | 269,846 | 42.06% | 25 | 7 | 32 |
| Misc. | 10,920 | 1.70% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (available) | — | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
| Total | 641,595 | 100% | 61 | 13 | 74 |
| Source: [6][7] | |||||
Republican primary
editSix candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:
- Jeb Bush (withdrawn)
- Ben Carson (withdrawn)
- Ted Cruz (withdrawn)
- John Kasich (withdrawn)
- Marco Rubio (withdrawn)
- Donald Trump
The 28 delegates from Oregon were allocated proportionally based on the statewide popular vote.[8]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 252,748 | 64.16% | 18 | 0 | 18 |
| Ted Cruz (withdrawn) | 65,513 | 16.63% | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| John Kasich (withdrawn) | 62,248 | 15.80% | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| Write-in | 13,411 | 3.40% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Unprojected delegates: | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total: | 393,920 | 100.00% | 28 | 0 | 28 |
| Source: The Green Papers | |||||
Green primary
editThis state's Green Party held its presidential preference vote on May 21.
On May 22, it was announced that Jill Stein had won the preference vote.[9]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | National delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jill Stein | - | - | 6 |
| Sedinam Kinamo Christin Moyowasifza Curry | - | - | 1 |
| Uncommitted | - | - | 1 |
| Total | - | - | 8 |
Libertarian primary
editThe Oregon primary was completed on May 27, 2016, the last day to receive mail-in ballots.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Gary Johnson | 422 | 57% |
| John McAfee | 105 | 14% |
| Merry Susan Nehls | 34 | 5% |
| Austin Petersen (write-in) | 25 | 3% |
| Darryl Perry | 21 | 3% |
| Keenan Dunham | 18 | 2% |
| Derrick Michael Reid | 10 | 1% |
| Rhett Smith | 6 | 1% |
| NOTA (write-in) | 2 | 0% |
| Other write-ins | 91 | 12% |
| Total | 742 | 100% |
Independent Party of Oregon primary
editThe Independent Party held a primary election on July 18. The party's ballot included Bernie Sanders (D), Hillary Clinton (D), Donald Trump (R), Ted Cruz (R), John Kasich (R), Gary Johnson (L), Jill Stein (G) and a "none of these candidates" choice.[12] Bernie Sanders won the primary election with 31.5% of the vote, narrowly defeating Donald Trump's 30.08%. Hillary Clinton came in third, with 24.02% of the vote. Members were allowed to select one or more candidates.[13]
| Candidate | Party | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Bernie Sanders | Democrat | 31.5% |
| Donald Trump | Republican | 30.08% |
| Hillary Clinton | Democrat | 24.02% |
| None of the above | N/A | 9.17% |
| Gary Johnson | Libertarian | 16.07% |
| Jill Stein | Green | 9.49% |
| Ted Cruz | Republican | 5.68% |
| John Kasich | Republican | 12.27% |
General election
editPredictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Times[14] | Safe D | November 6, 2016 |
| CNN[15] | Safe D | November 4, 2016 |
| Cook Political Report[16] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| Electoral-vote.com[17] | Safe D | November 8, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[18] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| RealClearPolitics[20] | Lean D | November 8, 2016 |
| Fox News[21] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
Voting History
editBesides Lyndon Johnson's landslide victory in 1964, the Republican party's candidate won Oregon in every year from 1948 through 1984. Since then, however, the Democratic candidate has carried the state in every election, including a narrow victory in the 2000 election. The last statewide election won by a Republican candidate was in the 2002 Senate election, all statewide elected officials as of election day were Democrats, and Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by 12.09% in the 2012 election. Generally, Eastern Oregon is more conservative, while Western Oregon is more liberal.
Polling
editDemocrat Hillary Clinton won every pre-election poll conducted in the state except one and led by margins of 7 to 13 points in most polls. The average of the final 3 polls showed Hillary Clinton leading Trump 44% to 36%.[22]
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Hillary Clinton | 1,002,106 | 50.07% | |
| Republican | Donald Trump | 782,403 | 39.09% | |
| Libertarian | Gary Johnson | 94,231 | 4.71% | |
| Pacific Green Party/Progressive | Jill Stein | 50,002 | 2.50% | |
| write-ins | 72,594 | 3.63% | ||
| Total votes | 2,001,336 | 100.00% | ||
Hillary Clinton carried the state, lengthening the Democratic streak in Oregon to 8 straight contests.
By county
edit| County | Hillary Clinton Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Baker | 1,797 | 20.47% | 6,218 | 70.83% | 764 | 8.70% | -4,421 | -50.36% | 8,779 |
| Benton | 29,193 | 59.88% | 13,445 | 27.58% | 6,115 | 12.54% | 15,748 | 32.30% | 48,753 |
| Clackamas | 102,095 | 47.70% | 88,392 | 41.30% | 23,552 | 11.00% | 20,703 | 6.40% | 214,039 |
| Clatsop | 9,252 | 47.05% | 8,138 | 41.39% | 2,274 | 11.56% | 1,114 | 5.66% | 19,664 |
| Columbia | 10,167 | 38.20% | 13,217 | 49.65% | 3,234 | 12.15% | -3,050 | -11.45% | 26,618 |
| Coos | 10,448 | 33.37% | 17,865 | 57.05% | 3,000 | 9.58% | -7,417 | -23.68% | 31,313 |
| Crook | 2,637 | 21.66% | 8,511 | 69.92% | 1,024 | 8.42% | -5,874 | -48.26% | 12,172 |
| Curry | 4,300 | 34.10% | 7,212 | 57.19% | 1,099 | 8.71% | -2,912 | -23.09% | 12,611 |
| Deschutes | 42,444 | 43.07% | 45,692 | 46.36% | 10,421 | 10.57% | -3,248 | -3.29% | 98,557 |
| Douglas | 14,096 | 26.34% | 34,582 | 64.61% | 4,843 | 9.05% | -20,486 | -38.27% | 53,521 |
| Gilliam | 239 | 23.45% | 671 | 65.85% | 109 | 10.70% | -432 | -42.40% | 1,019 |
| Grant | 739 | 17.03% | 3,210 | 73.96% | 391 | 9.01% | -2,471 | -56.93% | 4,340 |
| Harney | 683 | 17.19% | 2,912 | 73.28% | 379 | 9.53% | -2,229 | -56.09% | 3,974 |
| Hood River | 6,510 | 59.67% | 3,272 | 29.99% | 1,128 | 10.34% | 3,238 | 29.68% | 10,910 |
| Jackson | 44,447 | 40.66% | 53,870 | 49.27% | 11,010 | 10.07% | -9,423 | -8.61% | 109,327 |
| Jefferson | 2,980 | 31.50% | 5,483 | 57.97% | 996 | 10.53% | -2,503 | -26.47% | 9,459 |
| Josephine | 13,453 | 30.19% | 26,923 | 60.42% | 4,184 | 9.39% | -13,470 | -30.23% | 44,560 |
| Klamath | 7,210 | 23.63% | 20,435 | 66.98% | 2,862 | 9.39% | -13,225 | -43.35% | 30,507 |
| Lake | 639 | 16.26% | 3,022 | 76.90% | 269 | 6.84% | -2,383 | -60.64% | 3,930 |
| Lane | 102,753 | 53.53% | 67,141 | 34.98% | 22,056 | 11.49% | 35,612 | 18.55% | 191,950 |
| Lincoln | 12,501 | 49.50% | 10,039 | 39.75% | 2,716 | 10.75% | 2,462 | 9.75% | 25,256 |
| Linn | 17,995 | 30.65% | 33,488 | 57.03% | 7,236 | 12.32% | -15,493 | -26.38% | 58,719 |
| Malheur | 2,246 | 21.52% | 7,194 | 68.94% | 995 | 9.54% | -4,948 | -47.42% | 10,435 |
| Marion | 57,788 | 42.23% | 63,377 | 46.31% | 15,675 | 11.46% | -5,589 | -4.08% | 136,840 |
| Morrow | 1,017 | 24.41% | 2,721 | 65.30% | 429 | 10.29% | -1,704 | -40.89% | 4,167 |
| Multnomah | 292,561 | 73.30% | 67,954 | 17.03% | 38,588 | 9.67% | 224,607 | 56.27% | 399,103 |
| Polk | 16,420 | 40.75% | 18,940 | 47.00% | 4,935 | 12.25% | -2,520 | -6.25% | 40,295 |
| Sherman | 202 | 19.86% | 732 | 71.98% | 83 | 8.16% | -530 | -52.12% | 1,017 |
| Tillamook | 5,768 | 41.79% | 6,538 | 47.37% | 1,497 | 10.84% | -770 | -5.58% | 13,803 |
| Umatilla | 7,673 | 27.80% | 17,059 | 61.81% | 2,865 | 10.39% | -9,386 | -34.01% | 27,597 |
| Union | 3,249 | 25.05% | 8,431 | 65.01% | 1,288 | 9.94% | -5,182 | -39.96% | 12,968 |
| Wallowa | 1,116 | 25.56% | 2,848 | 65.23% | 402 | 9.21% | -1,732 | -39.67% | 4,366 |
| Wasco | 4,781 | 39.96% | 5,833 | 48.75% | 1,350 | 11.29% | -1,052 | -8.79% | 11,964 |
| Washington | 153,251 | 56.92% | 83,197 | 30.90% | 32,784 | 12.18% | 70,054 | 26.02% | 269,232 |
| Wheeler | 155 | 18.95% | 591 | 72.25% | 72 | 8.80% | -436 | -53.30% | 818 |
| Yamhill | 19,301 | 39.59% | 23,250 | 47.69% | 6,202 | 12.72% | -3,949 | -8.10% | 48,753 |
| Total | 1,002,106 | 50.07% | 782,403 | 39.09% | 216,827 | 10.84% | 219,703 | 10.98% | 2,001,336 |
- Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Columbia (largest city: St. Helens)
- Tillamook (largest city: Tillamook)
By congressional district
editClinton won 4 of 5 congressional districts.[24]
| District | Trump | Clinton | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 33% | 55% | Suzanne Bonamici |
| 2nd | 55% | 35% | Greg Walden |
| 3rd | 22% | 68% | Earl Blumenauer |
| 4th | 46% | 46.1% | Peter DeFazio |
| 5th | 42% | 46% | Kurt Schrader |
See also
editReferences
edit- ^ Oregon State Elections Division (2016). "[PARTICIPATION] STATISTICAL SUMMARY - NOVEMBER 8, 2016, GENERAL ELECTION". Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved October 3, 2018.
- ^ Betsy Hammond (December 12, 2016). "Oregon voters shattered previous participation rates in November 2016". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 3, 2018.
- ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. Retrieved December 24, 2020.
- ^ Sullivan, Robert David; ‘How the Red and Blue Map Evolved Over the Past Century’; America Magazine in The National Catholic Review; June 29, 2016
- ^ "Oregon Democratic Delegation 2016". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved February 25, 2017.
- ^ The Green Papers
- ^ Oregon Secretary of State - Official Election Results
- ^ "Oregon Republican Delegation 2016". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved February 25, 2017.
- ^ "Stein wins six Oregon delegates, Moyowasifza-Curry one – Green Party Watch". Retrieved June 18, 2016.
- ^ "2016 Election Rules". The Libertarian Party of Oregon. Archived from the original on 27 March 2016. Retrieved 19 March 2016.
- ^ "Oregon Libertarian Primary Raw Results". Independent Political Report. June 8, 2016. Retrieved June 8, 2016.
- ^ "Independent Party of Oregon". Retrieved July 23, 2016.
- ^ "2016 IPO PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT & MEMBER SURVEY RESULTS (UNOFFICIAL)" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on August 4, 2016. Retrieved July 31, 2016.
- ^ "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
- ^ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Archived from the original on March 1, 2019. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
- ^ "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
- ^ Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
- ^ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Oregon: Trump vs. Clinton".
- ^ "November 8, 2016, General Election Abstract of Votes". Oregon Secretary of State. Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved December 9, 2016.
- ^ David Nir. "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2016, 2012, and 2008". The Daily Kos. Retrieved September 30, 2020.